₦airaland Forum

Sagamite's argument seems circular. My understanding of his argument is that we should let the politicians take more money so that they will stop taking more money

@sky blue
You seem to have broadened the discussion to the general issue of currency valuation. I had already cautioned that the discussion should be kept in context.
The strength of your analysis is conditioned on the economy in question. In the case of Nigeria, your analysis, like the butterfly effect, threads a trail of ifs and maybes and goes towards secondary contributors.

The value of the naira is primarily governed by oil revenue and I don't see how the appointment of a new CBN governor would (not could) lead to a hopeless drop in the Naira.

If you have a contrary opinion to my last statement, please share, else there is no point in the discussion.

naijaking1:
Insinuations don't represent my thoughts. I could see the many leaps in logic you've taken to arrive at your false conculsion. If you can't show me where I stated, in words or in diagram, the above highlighted misrepresentation of yours, then you ought to be ashamed
If you don't then I'll end discussion on this topic with you.

You seem to be in a quandary and are now trying to bail your self out on a technicality. Below is the initial exchange:

naijaking1: I predict a hopeless drop in naira

biina: why?

naijaking1: It's all about having confidence in the naira, the government, the export, and reserve.

biina: and which of those would change based on the choice of a new cbn governor?

naijaking1: all

My deductions are that you predicted a hopeless drop in the naira because it is all about having confidence in the naira, the government, the export, and reserve, factors which are all affected by the appointment of the CBN governor.

Please provide your deductions?

@jimmysho
Butterfly effect simply means every little event/action could have a serious effect on a subsequent event/action that is faraway from the initial event. It is a description of the sensitivity of initial condition in Chaos theory.The phrase is coined from statements like "A butterfly flapping his wings in Rio can cause a tsunami in Tokyo".
For more information check http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

Under  butterfly effect principles, one can claim that a seemingly trivial event can have a serious impact on a more significant event. For example, me coughing in Naija can make Obama have an heart attack. It essentially threads a trail of 'ifs' and 'thens' to try to relate the two unrelated events, at the expense of more serious contributors (like Obama's health in this case)

naijaking1:
Are you not being disengenious? I listed 4 factors that could undermine the value of the naira, and you've obviously chosen to stick to the one dearest to your heart. Please go back and re-read my post.

being disingenuous? not at all. Our initial exchanges are there for all to read.
You initial statement in response to the OP was "I predict a hopeless drop in naira". Which I questioned
You listed four factors (having confidence in the naira, the government, the export, and reserve.) that you said would all be affected by the appointment of a new CBN governor that would in turn result to 'a hopeless drop in the Naira'.

New CBN governor -----> having confidence in the naira, the government, the export, and reserve ----->hopeless drop in the naira
(please feel free to correct any misrepresentation)

I don't see the single factor I am holding on to except the single underlying premise of your argument (appointment of the CBN governor). I simply disagree with your evaluation of the effect of the appointment of a new CBN governor resulting in a drop of the naira. In fact, if one tows mikeansy's line, the appointment would improve the economy.

@blacksta
Please modify the thread title to include the annual figure

If true (which it likely is), all of them should be shot like common criminals. The civil servant has become the public master.

Is it not the same amount received by all senators irrespective of state of origin?
The masses are busy chasing the phantom of ethnicity, while all our leaders (irrespective of origin) collude to loot the nation.
The anger of the masses should be directed at the leaders, and not another common man who is no better off.

don jazzie:
Personally i think what sahara reported there is true not an insult.

because that's the way I and a whole lot of other Nigerians see Mr. president.

Except Joshua claims to be blind to those as a result of his patriotism or stupidity.

Calling an idiot an idiot is still an insult. The fact that he is truly an idiot does not change this.
The veracity of the statement is not the question, but should they be allowed to ridicule the president at will.
While the likes of the American society are at ease throwing barbs irrespective of age and position, the Nigerian culture is less supportive of it.
I think we need to exercise caution and not loose sight of our culture in the name of democracy or under the banner of freedom of speech.

Jesse King - Jennifer

[flash=480,385]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciqkvmm03CY[/flash]

Jesse King - Bolanle

[flash=480,385]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaOYLVjbCo4[/flash]

mikeansy:
There is no reason to believe that Sanusi's appointment or anybody for that matter will surely result in the free fall of Naira

I personally think Sanusi is qualified enough for the post although he has only been the head of FBN for a very short time

I think anybody who love our country must wish him well . . . .it is in nobody's interest for Sanusi to fail

please tell that to naijaking1, who seems convinced that he has seen the future that others are oblivious to.

Bunch of criminals.
On democracy day, each should go back to his constituency to give account of what he has done to better the live of his people.

I dont like the move as I feel it does not discourage cash transactions.

I think he does have a point. Nigerian journalists should be able criticize without resorting to insults.
Unfortunalely this ailment seem to plague the average Nigerian as is evident on NL
Sadly Joshua also seems to have contracted the same illness.

mikeansy:
Biina

Collapse of the stock market . . . .does not sound positive to me

The FT article supports my argument that uncertainties in who the next CBN Governor will be which dragged on for so long was not healthy to our economy.

I have never said the indecision of the FG on the appointment was good for the economy. I agree with you that the move(or lack of) on the issue is bad for the economy. You had made a similar comment in another thread, and I cant remember any sensible person disagreeing with you.

The question is how would the appointment of Sanusi as CBN governor collapse the naira as predicted by naijaking1?

As to the article that you referenced and the excerpted quote:

The question over who might take over at the Central Bank of Nigeria has been among the biggest uncertainties facing Nigeria’s financial sector, compounding concerns linked to last year’s collapse in the value of the local stock market.

Contrary to naijaking1's view that it buttresses his position, it only points to the lack of appointment being a big uncertainty in the market, which is far from collapsing the market, and well off from the appointment of sanusi collapsing the market, which is quite a distance from his appointment collapsing the naira.

I simply disagree that the appointment of sanusi will result in a free fall of the naira.

Sky Blue:
And I think you might be failing to see the issue in the wider spectrum others might see it. There have been many project that seem to have gone into limbo since Yar Adua came into power, projects either suspended, uncompleted, not running at optimum or simply abandoned. The power issue remains a simple example. What happened to the reported steel mills which would have ensured we not only provide steel for domestic consumption but also produce some for exports. The Lagos port is more efficient than it used to be thanks to restructuring that occured during the last administration due to a change in the 'ownership' and hence a change in leadership of the group running the port (something they are also trying to achieve in Port Harcourt). The Lagos port was so inefficient before that it used to take at least two weeks for ships to dock and offload goods, a situation that caused a lot of importers to use ports outside the country to off-load goods and then transport the goods via roads into lagos from benin. As a result of the inefficiency, the rate at which goods were traded was affected significantly to put it mildly. Just think about it for a sec, Lagos is the main port in the country through which mosts of the goods brought into the countmry comes through.

I won't continue to bore you with things you already know, but as you can see, considering the federal government has put its hands in so many pies and was therefore needed for something as simple as port restructuring, how on earth can you then compare the influence a common street hawker would have with things like efficiency in trade or ratio of exports to imports, with the influence the federal government would have on similiar areas?? Doesn't the federal government run NNPC? We could start with something as simple as that before branching into the issue of how much crude oil is sold, go into the whole issue of Nigerians spending billions importing fuel from other countries because of the state of refineries in the country. Would these issues affect foreign exchange?

Economic activity is governed by the institutions and industries of a country, such factors the Nigerian government has had a history of controlling even with the long history of innefficieny and corruption that has plagued such a decision.

I gave the example of the street hawker to show how unreasonable an argument can get when one start to apply butterfly effect principles. You should go back to the original post by naijaking1 (in which he predicted an hopeless drop in the naira simply on the appointment of the CBN governor) before you degenerate this into a discussion on 6 degrees of separation.

Nigeria is a one dimensional export country (with crude oil being our primary source of forex), with heavy importation (not surprising given the poor state of our economy), resulting in huge trade deficit and a weakened currency. This is the primary factor affecting the value of the naira (but if you disagree I am all ears). The policy of the CBN and other actions by the government (or its parastatals) bring secondary effects.

For example:

1. The unrest in the Niger delta will likely result in reduced oil production and export which will lead to less forex income for the nation and will likely weaken the naira. Should I then conclude that MEND will devalue the naira? 
2. The incumbent CBN governor moved from the old DAS, where the banks could only buy forex from the CBN based on expressed demands and prior cash commitment of their customers, to a more liberlized market where banks are now allowed to purchase foreign exchange based on their speculative estimates of their customers’ foreign exchange demands. This has likely led to an increase in the demand for forex and further weakened the Naira. This is a more direct effect as compared to the previous case.

We can go on analyzing how the actions in a part of the government, private sector, or foreign government, affects the value of the naira, but the truth is that the appointment of a CBN governor is far from the war front in its effect.

As to the FT article, I really don't see the relevance to the discussion, as it did not say anything as to the direct effect (positive or negative) of the appointment on the currency.

To predict the fall of the Naira simply on the appointment of a CBN governor is erroneous.

Nigerians masses can't but see the ethnic angle in everything, while the corrupt leaders embezzle together like siblings.
It is always Yoruba this, Hausa that, Igbo then; when you should be more worried about if the person would do a good job and improve the standard of living of Nigerians.
We have nothing more to show for our 50 yrs of tribalism than our poverty stricken lifestyle and yet we seem hell bent on continuing down the same line.

@ 'sister' Tope
When is the recommended point for test driving?

[quote author=~Sissy~ link=topic=275869.msg3916341#msg3916341 date=1243188335]capital BS[/quote]ROTFLMAO
Havent heard that in a while

tope5000:
Lol . . . . can pastor swear to me that his wife was a virgin when he married her

Have you not heard that it is written: do as I say, don't do as I do!

I think the problems stems from the questioned sincerity when you start test driving every bf/gf, even when you have no intention of marriage.
One has to draw the line somewhere, and where it is drawn becomes an individual choice.

tope5000:
Yes i know its against God's will but i must test drive dat shyte. Lol, dnt want to end up wit an impotent dude abeg. We r all sinners anyways so God will 4give. Lol

SISTER TOPE!!!! I go tell pastor o!!! 

naijaking1:
It is good to take the moral high ground, but doing so whenever it fits your argument is not good. As we speak, most people from the north, west and even ND still blame every Igboman for the 1966 coup, "subsequently, the millions of Igbos massacred in the north deserved what they got" As we speak, Igbos are still attacked whenever an Igboman(person from SE, Ijaw, Akwa Ibom, Calabar, Edo) does something wrong anywhere in the north today.
You speak of only one state difference, it's not just one state, it's having 21 senators while the we have 15, it's having much more federal allocation, it's having more federal appointments.
Like I said, taking the high moral ground is good, but you can't fool anybody. Don't preach peace and forgiveness only when it's convinient for you.

moral high ground? this is not a question of morality.
I am simply tired of the common man being misled into wasting his life while the few elites continue to wallow in wealth.
Are the principal actors of the civil war, Gowon and Ojukwu, not both alive and well today? yet countless of the masses lost their lives during the civil war and have nothing to show for it.
Isn't an airport named after murtala and his face on our currency? idolized despite the fact that he got into power through a coup and lost his life to a failed coup. why is he treated any different from ironsi?
The elites use the masses for their selfish ends, encouraging them to kill one another in the name of religion and tribe. Preoccupying their minds so that they would not see the truth.
Aren't we all witnesses to the Sierra Leone saga: the masses are busy cutting of each others arms, while the elites sell the diamonds to the Europeans?
Resource control: didn't we have a regional government in the first republic? what did the masses have to show for it, except being manipulated in the defunct western region by being led to die for nothing (operation wetie) while the elite embezzled our money.
You are told that the north is the source of our problems: have you seen a government made up of entirely northerners? Even the military regimes always had southern vice presidents.
MKO that cried foul in 1993, was he not a member of NPN that ran the then corrupt  government of the second republic?
If the northerners were so bad, why haven't our own leaders shunned them; rather they are same bed fellows, looting and pillaging the life out of the nation and the masses
The masses are beguiled into believing that the source of their trouble is far away from home, while the true evil sleeps next door.
I am simply not interested in the north vs south war that is a figment of someone's imagination, I am interested in fighting the oppression of the masses by the corrupt elite. That is the true war to be fought.
Direct your anger at the leaders, and not some phantom northerner who is no more real than the unknown soldier that killed fela's mother.

O dabi wipe otito ni ni ohun ti alagba Dayo wi: emi esu ti fe gba ijoba.
Oye ki eyin omo obirin won yi dogba pelu alagba Dayo fun ise agba meji, pelu adura idakeje.

Ogbeni Gudaasi:
Emi ko ti ri ohun ti oju ko gbodo ri. Kaka be, mo fi oju inu wo ni.

Woli Tubebi:
E ma se wo ogbeni gudaasi niran.
Ma se ahun igbala; taa ni ore, nitori wipe ofe ni a fi fun e

Ogbeni Kirayola:
inu mi dun wipe o yara si ise oluwa
Gbogbo iranlowo ti o ba le se fun alagba dayo ni ki o se.
oluwa ko ni gbagbe iwo na.

Alagba Dayo:
Oro oluwa so wipe: ma sise lo, mase wa isimi.
E ku ise oluwa; oluwa a ma so agbara di otun.

naijaking1:
Are you the only Nigerian who doesn't know that Murtala Mohammed  and Gowon are not from the same tribe Or, are you just trying very hard to spin
Nigerians blame Igbos for the 1966 coup, because it was led by a few officer of Igbo extraction. Igbos were massacred en mass for the action of a few officers--- even ND people blame every Igbo person for the actions of a few. Why don't you want the northerners to take responsibility for the actions of the many rulers of northern extraction? For good or bad northerners, especially Hausa/Fulanis must be held accountable for the misrules of their people.
You did well listing the regions and there states, note that NW has 7 states, taking one away from SE where each could have had 6 each. You know the reason, don't you?

- Didn't you say they were all northerners? Now you want to divide up the north to suit your argument.
- The Igbos were wrongfully blamed for the 1966 coup and the mistake should not be repeated. Do not use the actions of a few military personnel to judge an entire region.
- So it is the one state difference that is the cause of your consternation? You forget that same 7 NW states have only one turn at presidency, same as the 5 SE states

It is sad that we always pursue our grievances in the wrong quarters. We blamed the Europeans for slavery but never questioned the leaders that sold their people into slavery. The problems of ND, Nigeria, and most of Africa stem from our bad leaders and not from our tribal differences.

CyberG:
@Biina. . .

Setting-up another unnecessary, unprofitable back-and-forth argument? I am not interested in being drawn into a time-wasting banter but it is clear to anyone with the ability to reason that Dokubo was "reporting" an exchange and he is saying it LOUD: Yar'adua and the others listed talked to MEND. If you are their spokesman and defender, that is your cup of tea but I need no consultation / advise from you to make a thread or choose its topic. Do not distract the thread with your grand-standing, I-big-pass-you and over-sabi arguments.

Its not an argument. Your title is misleading

Ibime:
This Biina guy must be some sort of Government spokesman. . . . whatever the case, he can talk from now till tomorrow, the Niger Delta problem is here to stay as long as the Government continue to adopt the same principles as he does. . . . Niger Delta states are developing. . . . however, his talk of Governors chopping money is nauseating as 4Play so eloquently put it. . . . the problem itself lies in the premise that Nigeria's system of 'federal allocation', rather than 'resource control' is the right way to go about things. . . . . of course, Niger Delta Governors are corrupt just like any other Governor. . . . it will take a reorientation of the Federal Govts approach to corruption to bring these Governors to book, not the actions of the powerless villagers. . . . until then, the problem still lies at the doorstep of FG. . . .

So the villagers are powerless against their own state but are ready to take the FG to account?

I am sure anyone that has been to the ND area (or seen images) will agree that the area deserves much better. Where I disagree with you is in where the solution lies. I do not see what would change if we have local resource control, and still same corrupt leaders in office. The people should hold leaders accountable to the masses, and not be misguided that the source of your problem is the average mallam in yobe or kebbi.

If the leaders and the reps of the ND area are not acting in the best interest of the area, then the ND people should act against it, and call that those individual be brought to book, not taking an approach that would only result in the death of innocent civilians.

SapeleGuy:
If you are dealing with investment/development in this area, please start from 1963 to date.

and this fight is about 1963? With each passing regime, more attention and funds have been brought to the ND area and there has been no visible effect. Shouldn't we look for the black hole?

As we speak the multinationals are still pumping oil- so stop with the lame excuses. "oil companies will not comply" If the FG showed some backbone they could enforce  the flaring deadline.

How can they comply when the the gases are to be pumped to NLNG and said trains and pipelines cannot be brought online because of unrest in the area?
Am awaiting your suggestions.

It is so unfair, how do these northern states manage with their inflated populace and the small amount of allocation. The last time I checked, Nigeria doesn't run a welfare / social security system. If the allocation the north are getting is not enough, they should engage in some economic acitivity to supplement this income. You have painted a picture of desparate insufficiency in the north, why don't we ask the northern leaders  how they are going to alleviate poverty in the north. And advocating genocide in the south is not a sustainable and viable option.The North, East & West need to control their resources. Resource control for all, what is wrong with that?

Are you saying the average northerner is living fine? They are living in poverty and they are not complaining (as they have no right to complain).
The ND people are also living in a woeful state and they are complaining, (and they have every right to complain).
My problem is when you try to place the fault for the sufferings of the ND people at the foot of the average northerner. The northerners are not responsible for the state of things in the delta, rather it is the corrupt elite, who irrespective of their origin, continue to loot the area.
The average northerner is not advocating for genocide in the south. After all was it a northerner in power when odi was attacked, or is agbabiaka from the north?
Stop being misguided that it is an ethnic or regional problem. It is corrupt leaders vs the masses.

ono:
@Biina,
What in the world is your problem??

Go and meet Akwaibom state government (and other state governments in the Niger Delta), ask to see the Commissioner for Finance and let him/her give you a breakdown of what they want to do/have done with their money!!! - If you can't do that, please stand down and stop asking questions that won't give any meaningful answers!

Do you know that the Delta State govt is currently building an airport in Asaba? Have you gone to Rivers State to see what Amaechi is doing to improve the living conditions of the people in the state, and in Port Harcourt in particular?
Do you know that Calabar is the tourism haven for Nigeria? - with Tinapa that the FG won't allow to fly due to some useless sentiments??

Bayelsa is undergoing some massive development. You may want to argue from now on end, but Bayelsa has developed past when it was created - we are happy about that.

Please, while you're searching for what ND governors are doing with their money, take some time out to see what Northern state governors are doing with their ''meagre'' take home as well. Do a good job of that, instead of boring everyone with this your stance on what the governors in the ND did with the money allocated to them - their own money in the first place.

make up your mind: are you developed or not.
Do not scream marginalization on one hand, and then later claim to be thriving in development.

naijaking1:
With more than 90% of Nigerian rulers(dictators and elected) coming from the north, and favoring the north in every concievable way since Independence; how can you say that no particular region needs to be blamed for our present situation The north bears 90% responsibility for what's going on in Nigeria today.
The military rulers were almost always northerners, they created states in a lopsided fashion and gave the north 19 of the 36 states, so that they can get more of the federal cake cooked with oil from the ND. Today, the north is overwhelmingly represented in the Senate and House at the expense of the more populated south, and ND that produce the oil.
Without the oil, many states like Kebbi, Jigawa, Nassarawa, and Yobe would not exist, because they simply can't fund themselves, yet we have politicians from these areas mouthing off at the expense of the ND.
No one is a fool, the south easterners might have been defeated, but trust me, nobody is a fool.

and all the southerners in the government nko? or wasn't Tam david west the petroleum minister under one of these regimes?
Military rulers got into office by coup. Irrespective of your ethnicity, if you succeeded you would assume power. If it was based on tribe as you said, how come murtala overthrew gowon? dimka killed murtala? buhari deposed shagari? and babangida kicked out buhari? Answer: It is simply greed on the part of a few individuals.
It was the same tribal sentiments that misguided the evaluation of the 1966 coup that eventually led to the civil war.

We have had 8 military rulers: 6 northerners and 2 southerners. The fact that military rulers were predominantly northerners simply reflected the composition of the army.
As per civilian regimes, we have had 4 presidents: 2 northerners, 2 southerners. There is no evidence of a bias (yet)
8/12 is 67% and is far from the over 90% as you claimed.

I don't know where you got the 19 northern states from. 

Current political zoning is

1. North-Central - Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, and Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

2. North-Eastern - Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe.

3. North-Western - Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara.

4. South-Eastern - Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo.

5. South-South - Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers.

6. South-Western - Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo.

Let me know if there is a state that you feel is in the wrong zone.

The representation in the house is the effect of gerrymandering. One can always argue as to what the proper formula (land mass, population, productivity) should be for rep allocation, and I doubt you will ever satisfy all interest groups. This is an ever evolving process.

Thge ND has genuine grievances, but they are greatly misplaced.

SapeleGuy:
without any form of compensation? That brings us back to the question of what has happened to all the funds that have been pumped into the region.
Are you talking about the 36 years before 1999 or the 8 years after 1999 because you can't be selective in the fight against corruption.

and OMPADEC was created in 2009?

The gas flaring deadline was not observed, is that the fault of the northerners too? or the selfish oil companies and their NNPC friends?
It is the fault of the FG who have not shown enough resolve to tackle the issue, perhaps they can declare war against the multinationals as this flaring is also costing the country $3 billion every year.

The FG as at 2008 had outlawed the flaring of gas.
Oil companies will not comply willingly as flaring is the cheapest option.
Enforcing the law becomes difficult because the sensibility in the law is questioned. The gas is a by-product of the oil recovery, and it should not be released into the atmosphere. The necessary infrastructure to harness it cannot be developed because of the unrest in the area. So what would you have the FG do?
Wait for the new NLNG trains to come oline before you criticize the FG on enforcement of the law.

If the issue of underdevelopment is common to all areas, then it is wrong to point a finger at a particular region for being responsible for depriving another. Rather the accusing finger should be pointed at corrupt leadership, irrespective of the region, tribe or state of origin.
Clearly all those who contribute nothing are happy with their lot, if they weren't they would do something about it. We have been pointing the finger even before 1960, now people are doing something about it. Nobody gives you power, you have to grab it. In the new order there can be no food for 'lazy man' regardless of where they come from. If you don't work you can't get paid

Akwa-Ibom gets NGN 7.5BN because it is an oil producing state, Bauchi get NGN 1.2B because it is not an oil producing state. Akwa-Ibom(along with other oil producing states) gets over 6x what most of the northern states each get. The northern states are not complaining, rather it is the over  NGN 7 Billion guys complaining, and yet you feel the northern states are responsible.
What would you rather have have? that they don't get a penny abi?
Shouldn't we be asking what has happened to the NGN 7.5B monthly stipend?