₦airaland Forum

DrMB:
When ex-governors, ex-ministers, and ex-candidates crowd under one roof, it’s never just strategy, it’s a cocktail of ambition, grudges, and clashing egos. They’re not just uniting to win, they’re each hoping to lead. Welcome to ADC’s high-stakes coalition, 25 political heavyweights, one crowded throne.

Anyone who includes Dele Momodu in a list of heavyweights does not know what a political heavy weight is.

Your relevance and weight in politics is determined by your ability to get votes. On that basis this is how I classify the names on that list

Heavy weight
1:Peter Obi
2: Atiku

Yes obi has more votes than Atiku. Atiku’s votes are significantly defacto PDP votes, many of which have deserted him or will not follow him out of PDP

Category B: those with significant influence but not game changers. (All lost their states in last election)
Lamido
Tambuwal

B: Yesterday’s men: they may be noisemakers but they have little voter influence:
David Mark,
Amaechi
Suswan
Aregbesola
ElRufai
Secundus
Ihedioha
Malami
Isaku etc
And anyone else not mentioned above or below

It is important to note that for all the people on this category, voters will vote for Atiku or Obi not because of their influence. Therefore they are not influential. They don’t add to the votes. A heavy weight is someone who has an independent followership and can add or remove votes. For instance Ihedioha has no influence over any votes anywhere. His domain is imo state and imo state voters are going to vote for a obi come rain come sunshine. He has not been able to influence the gubernatorial elections in his state for 4 election cycles in a row despite being speaker! Therefore he adds nothing to the coalition. This is the case for everyone in category C!

Category D:
Nonentities
Lalung
Momodu
Datti
Bolaji Abdulahi

When it comes to heavy weights in politics. Strictly defined as your ability to influence voters and deliver votes. I only rate Obi, Atiku, Lamido and Tambuwal.

The rest are seeking relevance precisely because they failed to deliver votes in the last election. If they did they would be in power.

All of them COMBINED cannot deliver the 6m votes Obi had/has and that includes Atiku!

DrMB:
When ex-governors, ex-ministers, and ex-candidates crowd under one roof, it’s never just strategy, it’s a cocktail of ambition, grudges, and clashing egos. They’re not just uniting to win, they’re each hoping to lead. Welcome to ADC’s high-stakes coalition, 25 political heavyweights, one crowded throne.

Anyone who includes Dele Momodu in a list of heavyweights does not know what a political heavy weight is.

Your relevance and weight in politics is determined by your ability to get votes. On that basis this is how I classify the names on that list

Heavy weight
1:Peter Obi
2: Atiku

Yes obi has more votes than Atiku. Atiku’s votes are significantly defacto PDP votes, many of which have deserted him or will not follow him out of PDP

Category B: those with some influence but not game changers
Lamido
Tambuwal

B: Yesterday’s men with little voter influence:
David Mark,
Amaechi
Suswan
Aregbesola
ElRufai
Lalong
Abdulahi
Secundus
Malami
Isaku etc
And anyone else not mentioned above or below

Category D:
Nonentities
Lalung
Momodu
Datti

Trustmea:
Anioma state is a done deal congrats to Ned nwoko, the first Anioma state Governor

Not a single state will be created anywhere! Know this and know peace!

TimeManager:
Next time, before rushing to comment, first take your time to read, assimilate and understand the context of the article. It will do you a lot of good.

-Kiss the truth!

It will also help these people to take some time to look at the breakdown of Buhari’s votes by region and states in 2011 and in 2015. It was the flipping of the SW + Edo that gave Buhari his victory. Without those 7 ACN states (plus Kogi and Kwara) Buhari would not have gotten the 25% required in 2/3rds of 36 states +FCT which he never got previously.

As you can see below in 2011 Buhari only got 25% in 16 states. Without the 6 SW states + Edo under ACN, plus Kogi and Kwara, his story would have been the same in 2015 as it was in the previous elections.

12m votes is of no consequence if you only have 25% in 16 out of the minimum 25 required.

helinues:
The Venezuelans are not even Africans, why should they be dumped in our continent. Trump has been insensitive with some of his decisions

One day the eyes of all these American worshiping Mentally enslaved NIgerians will clear and we will hopefully start to develop some self respect and dignity as a people!

Africa in the eyes of the west are a continent and a people to exploit and keep from developing. Exploit their land resources, exploit their skilled Labour.

You have a president who doesn’t even know that Liberia was a country established by Americans for freed slaves and that their capital Monrovia was named after one of their own ex presidents James Monroe. The full is asking where a president of a country established by Americans learnt to speak English. It shows that such was the low regard they had for the assembly of puppets that he and his team he did not even bother to do any background info before meeting them.

ok there is definitely a rift between Tinubu and Shetima.

9jatriot:
But how did a first-time senator who did not even resume with her mates, meaning she has spent less than 2 years in the senate become a committee chairman in the first place over more experienced peers?

High turnover from last elections. Most senators are 1st time senators.

wow he asked a sovereign leader if he is educated? Jesus wept!

Jayhome24:
Another misyarn from a leaked mouth wth porous grey matter.

This you cry go last for ever I swear.

Even vanguard reported the appointment in January.

this delusional woman, these were the people backing natasha and Fubara. Always backing the wrong horse!

AMINDA:
Old news. This appointment was made while he was still Chairman of APC. Tinubu sacrificed Ganduje for Kwankwaso and now Kwankwaso us having second thoughts about joining APC. Goes to show that the master strategist is willing to throw anyone and everyone under the bus to actualize his own inordinate ambition.

Thank you o! The internet is agog with “appointment” somebody that was appointed 6months ago.

It’s shows the falling standards amongst journalists that vanguard can describe this as a fresh appointment.

autoez:
Trump isn't going to be president forever. He's giving the Democrats an easy ride in the next polls.

All the people that would have voted democrats are being deported. If democrats got their act together there would be no Trump!

Imagine. Trying to present Sleepy Joe and later Kamala the stripper as presidential candidates!

Zocalite:
Lolzzzzz 🤣

You are too pedestrian, there was no cash for apc, but there was cash for opposition

Kai too gullible

PDP primaries happened long before the currency exchange and cash scarcity. I am talking about the elections!

MoR ON

That 3m votes is why he failed 3 times.

I’m Glad we are now beginning to know the faces behind the sabotage attempts on Tinubu.


Irony is we all thought initially that Lawal and Mistapha were Tinubu men.

Konquest:
@casualobserver

Right BELOW is the second of the two videos I wanted you to see. Cheers.

We Must Say The Truth Without Fear to Allow a Fulani Become The President.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-Yvq5t079k?si=gVfKR5YQDGIwR--1
Local Journo • Jul 2 2025

The problems of this country stem from 2 expansionist tribes. Every other tribe stays in their lane, don’t go creating problems or disturbing others, go about their business and hustle for a good life. But these 2 from day 1 are only ever interested in expansionism and conquest. All our problems from day 1 stem from their politics of expansion. But people have seen their game and are wising up and are beginning to kick back and say enough is enough!

It’s only a matter of time, they have overdone things to a point where the rest of Nigeria will one day say enough is enough.

Zocalite:
You are pained

They ignored dollar rain from apc

Abi

Pained that what? Which APC Dollar rain when there was no cash? Abi you forgot?

The day someone who won his elections or state or controls a state joins them, let me know!

You are an Ondo state politician in LP or PDP, you know both parties can’t win in 2027. However you know there will be dollar rain from Dubai in 2027 and he will need foot soldiers…..what do you do? Join ADC and cash out!

The hypocrisy of Obidients. Everyday they talk about due process. Now they don’t want to face primaries which is enshrined in law?

Obidients are Anarchists!

Coalition, kwalision don get collision!

Aka e don get accident!

Dele Momodu anywhere belle face since 1992. and the belle big!

OredoPikin:
Lolz
Delusion at it peak
Pele oooooooooooooooo

Shebi we are here watching together? Has any northern governor joined? I think 2 or 3 have already said no to coalition.

Ikaeniyan0:
When is Alex Otti going to join Peter 0bi in the ADC?

Alex Otti is going back to APC when his term ends in 2031. Either way he has nothing to gain from joining the coalition now. His second term is assured….nothing concern him with collision.

I told you people, no sitting northern governor will join the coalition. It is not in their interest for Atiku to become president. They have their eyes on 2031 and would rather back a Tinubu that is guaranteed to leave in 2031 than an Atiku who is a Northerner or another southerner who may not handover in 2031.

In fact if anything they will want Atiku to be retired politically come 2027. Why? Again with Buhari and Atiku out of the way, it’s a level playing field in 2031 for a northerner with presidential Ambitions. It’s like Tinubu in the SW, people like Amosun, Fashola, Osinbajo, Fayemi etc knew that so long as Tinubu is in the race to be president, they have no chance. By the same token, all current SW governors know the most they can ever be in future is a VP and even that is extremely unlikely because if Tinubu does 2 terms, the presidency is not coming to the SW for a generation. Permutations and timing to become president don’t come around every time, when your opportunity comes you don’t help your competitor. So no Northern gov is going to help Atiku when he is weak! It’s different if he came into the race strong. You crush your opponent when he is weak!

I wrote this is March

casualobserver:
People need to be a bit more discerning.

ElRufai wanted to be a minister. Therefore he is clearly still politically ambitious. For someone who has been a governor and a minister what else is there to aim for but the presidency or possibly the VP as a stepping a stone. Park that for now.

Northern ambitious politicians especially some governors want to be president. An opening is coming up for the North either in 2027 or 2031. If you as an ambitious northern politician don’t seize that opportunity, that’s your chance of being the president gone. A Northern president in 2027 cannot hand over to another northerner in 2031 or 2035 especially after denying the South its 2 terms.

The idea that ElRufai, Atiku, Kwankwanso, Bala Mohammed or the likes of Sule Lamido or Tambuwal will work for each other to make one the president in 2027 is to me a fallacy! And to me this is where the alliance unravels. Atiku will run, constitutionally he can’t be a VP again meaning any northern heavy weight supporting him is basically kissing goodbye to any presidential ambition.

My prediction: they will fail to form an alliance or will engage in anti-alliance activities and split the votes again. Be under no illusion, there are ambitious Northern opposition heavyweights who want to be president and would rather wait for 2031 by which time 1) Atiku their main threat would be too old to run thus giving them a smoother path and 2) they would be able to count on undiluted southern votes. Nobody is doing this out of the interests of the people. Where you stand is based on how the permutations serve you politically. It is politically suicidal for any ambitious northern heavy weight to back any northern candidate other than himself. For the same reason the likes of Fayemi, Osinbajo, Tunde Bakare etc contested against Tinubu….they knew it is then or never. After Tinubu the SW will not be president for 40 years….a generation!

For an ambitious northern politician, he knows it is better to back a southern candidate in 2027. Furthermore, he also knows backing Tinububserves his interests better because he can’t contest again in 2031. If he backs a fresh southern candidate like Amaechi or Obi, they could break any agreement to serve one term like Jonathan at which point they would also have the power of incumbency. If Atiku wins he can’t handover to another Northerner so It does not serve the interest of ANY northern governor whether PDP or APC to back another Northerner in 2027 other than himself.

I say this not because I support Tinubu. For me the logical, smart move for an ambitious Northern governor or politician is to back, be seen to back and deliver for Tinubu in 2027. A Sule lamido, Tambuwal, Kwakwanso, Bala Mohammed, even Saraki have nothing to gain politically by backing Atiku or aligning with ElRufai if they nurse ambitions to be president themselves. With Atiku out of the picture in 2031, the SW vote and Tinubu’s backing will play a big role if not determine which Northerner becomes president in 2031.

Politicians make deals all the time, In 2011 despite ACN having a presidential candidate Tinubu made a deal with Jonathan and delivered SW votes. In 2023, Wike and Makinde made a deal with Tinubu. Again I repeat your relevance in politics is predicated on your ability to deliver votes. ElRufai has no votes backing him. The only Northerners I can see as part of any coalition especially are those who are either political lightweights or have no presidential ambition. When the time comes those who have votes and have ambitions will make the right deals for them. Leave ElRufai and his social media content. We know the fate of all social media politicians like Sowore and Fela Durotoye.

So you see, personal ambition will trump any alliance and all that is happening now is just noise.

The difference between this proposed alliance/merger and the Tinubu/Buhari alliance is that the APC merger was a win win for everybody involved in the merger. Tinubu did not want to be president in 2015, so he was happy just to have his party at the center…..win, Buhari became president….win, Amaechi became minister….win, Saraki became senate president….win…..none of the leaders of the blocks that merged were interested in the presidency. The eastern flank represented by Rochas and Ngige were not interested in becoming president. This merger will only produce a win for one and career extinction for the others and that’s why it won’t work. A good deal is a deal where everyone gets what he wants.

ch214:
Obasanjo is a yoruba man that hate tribalism and will speak the truth even if it does not favour the yorubas.

Obasanjo is not sentimental but honest.
Obasanjo dey try shall, continue dey speak the truth.

Obasanjo has never favored any Yoruba that will outshine him. He worked against Awolow, he worked against Abiola and he worked against Tinubu.

His biggest fear is that another Yoruba man will outshine him and he knows Tinubu has already put him in the dust in just 2 yrs. He knows if Tinubu spends 8 yrs nobody will remember him.

As usual ibos never know when they are being used!

Show some real self confidence as a people and stop looking for validation. To start with come out with full chest to say you are contesting for 8 years. No tribe will run for presidency in this country and say they will only spend 4 years. If Atiku can have the audacity to run after Buhari just finished 8yrs, why are you who have never been president afraid to say you want 8 yrs too?

It is in things like these you know a people with pride and self esteem not looking for fake compliments and shouting ibokwenu up and down.

The sale may have been illegal or in bad taste but they need to buy them back at todays rate sha!

You represent the Ibo nation and when their opportunity for Ibo presidency presents itself, you grovel to your Fulani masters and say I will only do 4 years despite being the ones with the most votes in the coalition. That’s why you always play second fiddle!

The same Fulani that want to grab power back after spending 8 years!

Such a disgraceful display of inferiority complex.

Other tribes when they run, they run with full chest for 8 years. If they lose so be it!

Your “oga” don talk o….no “yes daddy” or “church take your country back”.

ADCagent:
We at our great party ADC don't support any form of gallivanting around the world without any tangible achievement from it.

Don’t worry the only place you will be gallivanting to is from one court to another.

By now your people are on 1st name terms with all the court officers as usual customers!

Winners of elections will be conducting affairs of state!

We did not even get enough time to know his name!

If you asked me yesterday which Kingdom does an Oba Olakulehin reign over? I would not have been able to answer

RIP

He didn’t work for Abacha. However he has changed his story on this issue many times. In the same interview yesterday he said he had a meeting with Abacha and the finance minister Ani, then in the same interview he said “I never met him”!

Previously he has given an interview where he said he had a meeting with Abacha where Abacha pointed at him and said “that boy let him be the chairman” or words to that effect.

Edit: God bless the poster above, that is the interview I was referring to in the last paragraph!