₦airaland Forum

Very realistic projection Kudos however I differ on a few points.

1. I think the turnout will be 50-55%

2. I think Tinubu will slightly win North Central

3. Their won't be a rerun Tinubu and Atiku will comfortably get 25% from at least 28 states.

Other than that can't accurately predict a winner. The anger towards the ruling party is palpable but the opposition might be too divided to capitalize.

Trollronaldo:
Below is the amount of registered voters by regions.
I am going to make this analysis based on 40% voters turnout in every region, it's not certain but it's enough to give us an insight to as to what will happen in February.

Based on 40% voters turnout, here is the figure from each region

1. NW 8,902,224
2. SW 7,183,506
3. NC 6, 145, 492
4. SS 5, 776, 285
5. NE 5,016,971
6. SE 4,363,042


Analysis based on regions based on my predictions are as follows

Northwest
1. Atiku 35% 3,115,778
2. TINUBU 30% 2,670,667
3. Kwankwaso 25% 2,225,556
4. Obi 5% 445,111

SouthWest
1. Tinubu 50% 3,591,753
2. Obi 25% 1,7996,876
3. Atiku 15% 1,077,526
4. Kwankwaso 2% 143,670

Southsouth
1. Obi 45% 2,599,328
2. Atiku 30% 1,732,885
3. Tinubu 20% 1,155,257
4. Kwankwaso 2% 115,525

Northcentral
1. Atiku 30% 1,843,647
2. Obi 30% 1,843,647
3. Tinubu 30% 1,843,647
4. Kwankwaso 10% 614,549

Northeast
Atiku 40% 2,006,788
Tinubu 30% 1,505,091
Kwankwaso 15% 752,545
Obi 10% 501,697

Southeast
Obi 70% 3,054,129
Atiku 15% 654,456
Tinubu 10% 436,304
Kwankwaso 1% 43,630


TOTAL
Tinubu : 11,202, 719
Atiku: 10,431,080
Obi: 10,239,788
Kwankwaso: 3,895,475


I see Tinubu getting the most votes, however, this is not certain. Tinubu will get the most votes but won't get 25% required coverage. Tinubu will go into a rerun with Atiku.
Atiku will beat Tinubu in the rerun by winning SE and SS. However, it's still too close to call, Tinubu and Atiku may lose the momentum to Obi.


Thanks for reading guys

Like I said that is mostly because Nigerian musicians perfected it and made it go global. However if you want to look at the history and origins then Ghana is your destination.

Shma2022:
I don't watch AFRO anything on Netflix. I only relate Afrobeats to Nigeria, from some of my Afrocentric friends. Ask any Kenyan or Negro and he will tell you Nigeria is Afrobeats and Afrobeats is Nigeria, TBH.

Afrobeat has its roots in Ghana which Nigerian musicians like the legendary late Fela Kuti perfected and made internationally recognized. Same with Afrobeats.

If you have netflix please watch Afrobeats: The Backstory for more information.

Shma2022:
Afrobeat is Nigerian.

I have evidence, you don't.

hmmmm nothing new really every genuine person not clouded by politics always knew Atiku was a dodgy person so not breaking news for me. Curious though as to why the Achimugu fellow has come out with this very revealing evidence now. Bad week for Mikano all round. From his ill health rumours to this. True be told of the three frontrunners he's the one I want least to be president.

[quote author=OasisX post=119844456][font=serif]This Link is for Everyone to see.

#AtikuGate.

A warning. I may die but I will speak first. See videos on YouTube:https://t.co/Y59aCFZDx6https://t.co/q3pm8q9RSl https://t.co/MYTNAhDNEL pic.twitter.com/Cn5jGQMbXr

— Michael Achimugu (@mikeachimugu01) January 8, 2023

]

Yeah his movement was elite for that goal. Need him to push on from there on.

fabyom:
Superb movement! The pace from defence to attack was great!
Nevertheless, he too needs to be more selfish! He should stop giving away the penalties to please Kvara and Politano! People don't respect those that are too nice!

Bros you don come again someone is 3rd best goal scorer behind the likes of Mbappe and Neymar while you're mentioning Grey, Townsend and Gordon are you taking the mickey?

komekn:
What if he joins and struggles to get in the team, you have Calvert Lewin, Demeria Grey , Gordon, Townsend etc

5th straight season of double digits goals in European leagues Mr Consistency too.

TheSuperNerd:
Osimhen!!!!!

The Monster Machine strikes!!!

First goal of the New year. NAPOLI 1-0 UP.

10 GOALS IN THE LEAGUE. 10 IN 12 STARTS.

11 GOALS IN ALL COMPETITIONS.

In my church this morning during our sunday session an elder in the congregation (he's Yoruba by the way) brought up the issue of how the muslim-muslim ticket was a threat to the church even though the question he asked was in no way related to his response.

Bimffo:
If you are coming in front of a church, to tell the church to take back their country, then you are a bigot! It is as simple as that.

You know your main opposition is running on a Mu-Mu ticket, and you are playing the religion card. If that is not religious bigotry, I don't know what will be.

If you have to bring religion or use religion as a basis before you vote for someone then you are a bigot.

You are not different from the uneducated Imams that are shouting Jihad all over the place.

Don't you know there are the second wakanda? Kenya the nation blessed from heaven to be great

That's why they get so upset when you hold a mirror up to their faces which truly shows the true state they are in.

The sooner they roll up their sleeves and get to work instead of acting like sex starved voyeurs looking at other countries instead of focusing on there own issues then maybe their numerous problems will be solved in this century.

Just30:
Even Algeria and Egypt and Morocco

Kenyans are delusional as F

Chief you haven't commented about how your party's VP candidate publicly asked for gay people to be executed.

Donjazet2:
That's what pains me the most. "Christians actually being satisfied with someone being killed for doing something they don't like. It's just sad seeing it. I saw a thread on Twitter about this issue and the responses to this crime were just insane.

You see people saying, don't do something that is unpopular in a society. Really?? So no appraisal of the brave anymore.

I was telling people on that frontpage post, today it's a gay person being killed, tomorrow it can be you being killed for holding hands with your babe in Abuja. Live and let live

Hmmm look at the fish pond matter that Oaxis or GloriousGbola spoke about. How couldn't that man he trusted with setting up his business not know that if he was honest and straight forward he would probably have attracted more investments and extra responsibility that would have transformed his life and that of his family for good.

Or people that go and remove manhole covers someone falls in dies.

As a people fundamentally if we don't change we're on a long thing.

raumdeuter:
Just as we spoke about Real estate investment on this thread yesterday

Someone yesterday In Nigeria was telling me how a tenant in their boys quarters did illegal bypass electricity connection so he can avoid paying bills and the boys quarters caught fire from an electrical issue burning 3 other units

So the landlords investment is gone. And it's not like many people in Nigeria have insurance

So what are you going to do about that one now? That tenant will also claim Nigeria is corrupt while he can't even do what's right to his landlord

Seankafor every transaction in the world involves certain level of trust. The bank you are keeping your money how do you know they are not planning to run away with your deposit? The bus you enter how do you know the driver knows how to drive and he's not going to plunge you into a river? The mama put you eat how do you know she's not serving you with rotten animals?
The example of the nepa illegal connection do you expect Nepa to be coming into every house in Nigeria to be checking your connection daily to protect them

BTW Sean Ive been trying to ask for some time? did you resolve your project issue? NYSC and job market next right?

And how did you know your supervisor will read the work and not give your project to another student

You see the trust chain in every transaction you do

Even driving is based on the trust that those in opposite lane won't suddenly swerve to face you at speed

It's tiring. Look at the security forces for example from customs to police all the way to the army. Saboteurs and traitors selling weapons and enabling criminals and terrorists to continue ruining the country thinking foolishly it won't touch them or their families in the long run.

Speaking realistically I honestly don't know if in the next 100 years corruption in Nigeria can greatly be reduced (that is if the country is even still existing in its present form). It has become so entwined in our national psyche that removing it will be akin to almost amputating a vital part of your body.

I'm seriously at a loss as to how this deadly problem will be sorted.

GloriousGbola:
Corruption is not black and white. It is a spectrum. The problem is that too many Nigerians of all social classes, income levels have no issues perpetrating killing the golden goose levels of corruption.

You hear of people robbing their company blind. And you are forced to wonder - did they have another job lined up when they killed their current job?

The one that almost finished me with laughter one day near the old NITEL building on the Marina na so one guy come knock for my car window say him need 200k to start business omo

BlueRayDick:
Na since the day I don encounter those ones wey dey use LASUTH tests result and Doctors prescription lie for that Mobolaji Bank anthony way for Ikeja , na since that day I no dey pity dem.

While going I saw a couple with tears in their eyes move to our bus begging the passengers for assistance that their child was admitted in LASUTH and they had a whole lot of documents and the pictures of the supposed child bedridden.

They said the money they need remains 8k or thereabouts and people started donating .Funny enough they deducted each amount a passenger gives them from the total sum till it remained I think 1k or so. I just gave them 1k and they appreciated us and moved on.

Unfortunately for the dubious couple I spent a great deal of time where I went to and in the evening while on my way , the same couple had changed lanes and were back with the same story for people in our bus . I challenged them right there and then , omo! They just disappeared .

It was the conductor of our bus that now told me that those people are regular on the road na. He said they have people who give them all those LASUTH papers to deceive the unsuspecting members of the public and that they have a particular drug if they take it , they will be all emotional and u will think their tears are real when in fact the tears are induced by the drug . Na that day I know say begging na one big industry

The Democratic minority leader spoke well. Speech was fire yes we can vibes

raumdeuter:
Kevin McCarthy becomes Speaker after 15th vote

For full disclosure Sanusi didn't initially displace the Brazilian LB. It was when Manchester United bought the latter in 2020 that Zaidu stake his claim to a starting berth in the Porto XI.

charlesemeka85:
don’t blame it on porto, he had options when he went on loan to Nantes and leganes but didn’t do enough to warrant those teams to sign him permanently from the portuguese giants

Porto even had to cut him lose by selling to boavista where he also didn’t do wel before been shipped off to Croatia on loan

Is it not the same porto sanusi joined from a less fancied team in the same league and in few months displaced their starting Brazilian left back?

It’s high time we face fact with regards to certain players rather than make excuses for them

Here's the first in a series of write ups listing the GOAT of the Super Eagles by Solace Chukwu.

https://chaosdigestbysolace.substack.com/p/nigerias-goats-introduction-and-10

Please tell me you're joking

Shaytun:
Lmao, MUMU man.

Ruto is not fixing anything, his daughter just established the OFFICE OF THE FIRST DAUGHTER

Kenya is officially a banana republic

I can admit when I'm wrong but you were motivated to prove a 'gotcha moment' when you responded to my post.

Thank God Gloriousgbola has dropped his expert opinion so the matter is put to rest.

I'm definitely not the most intelligent on this thread so I have no qualms submitting to superior arguments.

You're one of the most intelligent posters I've come across who's submissions I often agree with.

The times I tackle you is obviously when we disagree so no beef on my end.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]You said something
I probed it

Now you are going about, dropping specific terrains...Not good, sir

You said roads are cheaper to build in the North than South. What you should look out for it the cost of a road in the North, in relation to that of a South.

I no wan win argument with you. You no even dey gree if you dey wrong, so there is no point of arguing[/color]

Chief so you're saying if you're building 100km for instance you will pay the same amount in the South like the North even when you have pre-existing issues to resolve with the road in the southern region?

izzou:
[color=royalblue]He said it is CHEAPER.

And i can bring proof that it is not. It is almost the same estimate, in comparison with the distance.

I have not argued that it isnt easier[/color]

I'm still waiting for your analysis to prove how it's cheaper and easier to build in the South than the North.

Please make sure to include the different terrains and not just select a few because you want to win an argument.

Note not just South-South but South East and South West as well.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]You said this. [/color]



[color=royalblue]Maybe i should ask you if only Niger Delta is in the South[/color]

blue line is going to be electric IPP is being built at national arts theatre


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gN7yWAjfXis

izzou:
[color=royalblue]You are an engineer, so i expect you to know how long 752km is in reality.

The railway has 61 bridges built for it. That is no small feat.

The Blue rail is not even a heavy guage rail. The Ethiopian rail is. The Blue rail is not even electric.
The Ethiopian rail is.

The raft foundation you talk about starts from Orile to Marina. That is a 10km distance or so. Max is 15 km

And nowhere did i say the rail was not existing[/color]

So it's cheaper to build in a swampy area like the Niger-Delta than in Northern areas like say Benue or Taraba?

Please go ahead waiting for your gotcha moment.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]If i prove to you that this is wrong, i hope you won't say i misconstrued your point again[/color]

You have decided to read whatever meaning into what I wrote I can't help you with that.

So even when you give contracts to your friends and cronies it means inflate the contract?

Na you know sha.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Your point was clear in your previous post. I don't know why you have to type this long to explain[/color]

Thank you for expanding on my point. That's why it's cheaper and easier for example to build roads in the northern part of Nigeria than the South because of issues around soil texture and terrain.


Government expenditure without doubt should be looked at closely but it should be done with rigorous research and vigor.


Some of our journalists too don't help matters like the issue of sovereignty clause that was inserted into the contracts of the railways the Chinese built for Nigeria. Some people actually believed the Chinese will seize the country's railway incase of debt default on Nigeria's part. Unfortunately the brouhaha from the matter has discouraged the Chinese from funding the remaining part of the line from Ibadan to Abuja.

GloriousGbola:
Well, the rail line was originally a world Bank project funded and overseen by the world Bank. There were multiple consultants attached to it. This was also one of the reasons for delays because the loan is paid in tranches and each tranche has to be guaranteed by the FG. At a point the then admin did not do anything. I am not sure it is still world bank funded.

The point I am making is it was initially overseen by wb. Also it was originally awarded to multiple vendors but now it seems to be only ccecc. CCECC will always give you lowest price but any variation, you are OYO

Finally the argument it cost x amount here vs y amount there doesn't quite fly because of what we call greenfield vs brownfield.

Also because of ground

Greenfield means you are building in virgin territory. No houses to demolish, no rubbish tips to clear and sand full, no utilities in your way. This project has necessitated relocation of 33kv power lines, nnpc pipe line, demolitions etc. All these add to the cost

In addition most of Lagos is waterlogged. That means raft foundation. A raft foundation is x10 cost of strip foundation. And that is for buildings. For a bridge carrying a rail line

Just to point out

And there is another difference. We actually have the rail line. And it will work. That is the difference. It is not what I call a showroom piece - that will look good in the shop and never be used after ceremony, but an actual utility

Now chief this is the upteempth time you will come out of the blue to misconstrue my statement and conclude what I didn't say in my post. Please stop it this is a new year.

Now to address directly what you said of course it's common sense to interrogate the budget of projects world over. I was speaking to the Nigerian malaise of monies being allocated for projects and it being completely siphoned without any getting done but how that means I'm justifying corrupt inflation of projects only you can explain.

I don't know the exact details of how much should have been expended on the blue line and on the surface it looks inflated however it will help when making comparisons to give detailed breakdowns of how such figures were arrived at because for example compensation for owners of land along the right of way, nature of terrain usually go into the cost. That in no way isn't saying blue line didn't cost too much but more details are needed before arriving at an absolute conclusion.

I'm not asking for a Jinnee that will magically make everything in the country better. I want someone who will take practical realistic steps that will improve the country. Problem solvers remedy situations not because the environment is ideal or perfect but because they think out of the box.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]It is statements like yours that have kept, and continue to keep us in abject hardships and poverty

Your opinion leaves no room for accountability; Just do something we can see...We are not interested on how you did it and how much you spent.

Lagos Blue Rail Line
Distance: 27 km
Cost: $2 billion

Addis-Ababa Djibouti Rail line
Distance: 752km
Cost: $4 billion

It is because we don't ask questions, that is why we have Tinubu, Obi and Atiku as candidates, and expect a miracle in 8 years[/color]

This right here is the bane of Africa and in particular Nigeria.

There will always be money to embezzle just build the damn project that will ensure national development but no corner all the capital funds and leave a white elephant project to deal with.

Nobody seriously believes that no is chopping from the infrastructure PMB has/is built/building but at least something has actually been done which we can all see.

That's why anytime I remember how OBJ or GEJ blew the opportunity to build any visible lasting infrastructure it makes my blood boil. Nobody is saying don't give contracts to your friends or cronies but bloody do something.

GloriousGbola:
the nigerian problem is and will always be corruption imho

corruption exists everywhere - but in most other places - it ends at 10% or it ends at kickback

but too many nigerians are prepared for a level of corruption that will compromise the project, national security , food security , basic safety.

this replocates in all sectors and so here we are.

the whole kidnapping business is also chop money for soldiers. if soldiers are getting thier cut from kidnappers, why would they be motivated to flush them out?

there are stories of nigerian lawyers compromising international cases that would cost this country billions of dollars

right now everyone simply adds settlement to cost of doing business

ah ah a whole CSO

andrewbaba44:
Our boy really cook that Senegalese amotekun officer

Please give this twitter handle to go down memory lane of old Nigerian football archives.

https://twitter.com/Seal_60team

Happy New Year to everyone on this thread. Thanks for making 2022 memorable. 2023 shall be a great and happy year for all us off and on the pitch.

Happy Birthday to you Chief

EmmanuelScott1:
Happy birthday sir

It's his co-founder Olugbenga Agboola you're referring to. Aboyeji had already left before the scandals came up.

Donjazet2:
Is it not this one that has been accused of financial misappropriation of funds, corrupt practices and sexual harrassment in the workplace?
Abi na my eye dey pain me?
You and 419 sef eh.

It's ok chief the New Year is upon us let's cease hostilities vawulence is not the way

diggz:
Bitchboy aka the pancake wearing nigga!!! Don't worry bitchboy, you're actually nothing we've not seen before. I mean, just a quick sample of the obidient people would be a perfect way to expose the kind of lowlife you are. A cvnt through and through... You are the definition of what man should never be. You are a soft cvnt whose bitch fvcks because you're literally stuck on your pancake face. Bitchboy the soft effeminate cvnt!

My father was a doctor in lantoro hospital abeokuta, but I am still a bum nigga. Cvnt nigga, Fvck whatever image you are trying to sell. You are a clown, a cheap liar and one of them **I can't get** pussy nigga. Fvcking cvnt!

Again, what's a Portable to a Johnny Drille? Miles apart in composure and intelligence! Yes..except this low budget Johnny Drillle was horned into this world lol. Fvcking retard.