₦airaland Forum

@kalokalo: Fair enough. I see your point.

There is something refreshing about citizens voting for people rather than parties.

In a way, this is more sophisticated voting than say your typical mindless American voter who votes Democrat/Republican only.

Maybe the best solution is to just split the country.

I'd have suggested simply weakening the federal gov't dramatically. . . but even that might not be enough to keep people happy.

If you take two best friends and force them to live in a tiny room for a week, they might end up hating each other. Perhaps distance is better. Good fences make good neighbors, as they say. . .

Areosapien: My fault. I should have been more precise with my language. I didn't mean to insult all Igbo. . . most of ya'll are pretty good people, in my book.

For the record. . . most of the nigerians I hang out with these days are Igbo. So if I've given the impression that I have bitterness/hatred/racism in my heart, I just want to clarify that that isn't true.

Political discussions get pretty passionate Some of ya'll might know this if you participate on other political sites (e.g., DailyKos.com if you are a Democrat, etc)

Anyway, I understand OnlyTruth's POV.

Primary justification for his position is that zoning is some sort of fraud, and that if Yar'Adua had not died, no SS man would ever be president.

If one believes that, then sure, basic fairness suggests giving them a turn.

I'll ignore the "Yoruba are tribalists because of presidential voting record" bit; that is obviously very shoddy reasoning.

Now, question for ya'll. . . why was the PDP zoning system a fraud and sham?

Onlytruth:
Posted by: ekt_bear
It is a fact, go through Nigerian electoral history and show me when your people voted for someone other than Yoruba either as president or vice president. It never happened.

Lol. So by your twisted reasoning. . . in 1999, when all major tickets had Yoruba on them, we were tribalists too   2007 when I guess our votes were split between Atiku and Yaradua, was that also tribalism? Or was voting for Abiola (a guy who won overwhelmingly EVERYWHERE in Nigeria) also an example of tribalism?

Abeg, tell a more interesting tale.

Your support for Buhari now is because he picked Bakare. FULLSTOP.

I assume you mean "you" in the ethnic sense, rather than personally. Yes, Buhari is doing better in the SW having chosen a SW VP. No doubt this will help him pick up some votes. But. . . this is true of every possibly choice of VP. If he chose a VP from Benue, it would also pick up votes in that region. . .

I cannot educate you on why the zoning being bandied by the North is a fraud. I don't have time for that. You have to go and research that yourself. Sorry.

Bottomline is that if GEJ loses this election, there is a very good chance that NO minority from southern Nigeria will EVER become Nigerian president again; if Igbo step forward to act and behave like Yoruba, it will never happen.

Alright. If you believe that zoning is a fraud, then I understand your POV. However, I'd like to point out that many of your own homies (including Eziachi) support the zoning principle and believed in it.

Anyway, I understand the motivations of some. In this Nigeria, you must get as many allies as you can. Even if it requires you to lie and distort the history/motivations of others.

Setting up a false crisis with GEJ, and extending it to all SS groups is a pretty good tool.

It honestly cracked me up when Obasanjo went off-message and said, "Zoning is still in effect . . . we are just making an exception for GEJ, who will leave office in 2015"  

Goodluck must have been like, "Ix-nay on the oning-zay, dude!"

Na wa o. Let's not derail into the civil war again  

^-- A federation involving three factions though? Isn't that inherently. . . unstable? Isn't it almost obvious that two of the three factions would ally to undermine the interests of the third?

I understand why they inflated the North's population and gave them control of the army though. They needed to give the North *something* to maintain parity.

BTW, I remember you mentioned before something about the GDP figures of the three regions in the 50s? Where did you read that?

And yeah, the British really hated southerners, for some reason. I get the sense that they especially didn't like Yoruba, heh.

Onlytruth:
Learn to live with it, the fact remains that GEJ or anyone from the Eastern minority groups does not stand a chance in Nigerian national politics without us all in the East acting together.

All the minorities in southern Nigeria were plopped into the SS zone. There is a rotation principle which seems to be the soul of the PDP. If this principle had been maintained, presumably the SS would have gotten a turn at the presidency.

So what crisis was there, before GEJ came along There wouldn't be a crisis if that formula had been retained, would there?

Only through tortuous logic can one manufacture a political threat to the SS.

And hell, i'm not even a PDP fan or a fan of zoning. But it makes no sense for GEJ fans/supporters to play the victim. He has brought this on himself.

The Yoruba NEVER voted for anyone than themselves since Nigeria began.

This is propoganda and bullshit. You know it, I know it. Anyway, technically speaking you are incorrect. . . at least if election results are anything to go by.

Supporting GEJ would have you shed that evil image of unrepentant tribalists. It is your call though.

There is no moral imperative for Yoruba to support Goodluck. Or for any other group, for that matter. If you like Goodluck, fine, support him. If you don't, also fine.

But attempting to take higher moral ground over a political matter like this? There is something fundamentally. . . dishonest about that.

Regarding tribalism. . . well, every group in Nigeria (or on Earth, for that matter) is tribalist.

[quote author=Rhino.5dm link=topic=632823.msg8005383#msg8005383 date=1301340345]So, All that much talk about PDP strong hold has been demystify. Way to go Tinubu. [/quote]Indeed. Between this and the events in Benue, weakness in Delta State and other places, I'm beginning to think that their house of cards will fall.

Even if the PDP isn't kicked out of the presidency this cycle, weakening the party now means better odds going forward.

Onlytruth:
Posted by: ekt_bear
Here you go again with their shameless deceit.

It is pretty true, I think. Then again, I don't know how well the few Ibibio I've talked politics with in RL reflects mainstream thought. Who knows, maybe they told me what they thought I wanted to hear.

I think that what is funnier is how suddenly Buhari is now hot cake in Yoruba land after picking Bakare as his houseboy V.P.

Strategically, his move was sound. . . for somewhat obvious reasons.

Who shouts "North" more if not the Hausa/Fulani? Where are the Kanuri and Nupe? Why are northern candidates Fulani or Hausa?

Agreed; both North and Igbos are too keen on subjugating their neighbors into a nebulous "North" or a nebulous "East." If only they were more like the Yoruba, who learned from the sins they committed in the 1950s and have since repented.

Does GEJ stand a chance in this election if not for the support he gets from Igbos?

And how does an alliance between GEJ and Igbos preclude the people of Akwa Ibom from making their own independent decisions?

What I wonder is why Nigeria just wasn't formed as three countries.

Why were the British not bold enough to take this step? A federation of three regions seems so inherently unstable to me. . .

Did they purposefully want to see Nigeria fail? Or did they somehow think that the federation would be enough?

It puzzles me.

I have no clue what he means then.

And yeah, I've always had the impression that Ashkenazi are "born to rule" in that country.

Switzerland might be a better example, I dunno.

Anyway, his words don't have much value to me. . . diversity in my opinion is a weakness w/o political federalism and a weak federal government.

Why no option for "indifferent"/"no strong feelings"?

Heh.

Funny thing is that these days, the vast majority of voices that shout "East" is Igbos. Very rarely will you hear an Ibibio or Efik demonstrate any interest. Largely moved on to other things.

Anyway, we shall see how the people of Akwa Ibom decide over the next few weeks.

^-- Maybe he means some sort of tribes of Israel, biblical stuff? I don't know.

I don't think federal character will hurt too much in this case. Most of the discos should be profitable.

My guess is that the weakest link would be the Yola one. But fortunately, that part of the country doesn't really have too many people, and thus won't use too much electricity:
http://i55.tinypic.com/2czjlx.png

So the amount which we'd have to subsidize them shouldn't be too much.

Federal character sucks, but hopefully won't hurt the rest of us badly.

If you are voting Goodluck, may those close to you not mysteriously die or suffer great misfortune, like GEJ

^-- Poor eastern minorities. . . will they ever be able to escape the spectre of Igbo domination? 

@Kalokalo: Thinking about it more, you are kind of right. What reason does the FG have not to sell the national grid off? What do we lose by doing that?

I think GEJ says something about national security, natural monopoly, blahblah for not selling it off. But I don't really buy those reasons.

Basically, if the government screws up its end (the national grid) as they've screwed up so many other things, naija will suffer.

Especially if you live in the middle of nowhere, or a place that isn't very densely populated like Northern Nigeria.

I'm starting to wonder how it is done elsewhere in the world.


@herculed07: What do you mean by federal character? I don't get it. Who suffers if there is no federal character. . .?

^-- You are in no position to speak for anyone but your own ethnic group, Igbos.

If Akwa Ibom decides to support ACN, then who the hell are you to gainsay them?

The "East" is dead. . . they get to make their own decisions now.

@Reference: Even if they drastically overpaid for Nigeria's existing power infrastructure (paying $100 billion for something that costs under $20 billion to build from scratch), they have no ability to enforce a monopoly, since the transmission network will be kept separate. Meaning anybody can start up a power plant and start selling to the national grid.

Heck, if you have a stream near your house or live near a windy hill, maybe you'd sell to the national grid too 

Anyway, I still don't think it is a good idea to sell to one guy.

kalokalo:
@ ekt-bear, transmission losses in Nigeria range from 30 - 40 %

I didn't realize it was that high (do you have a reference for that, btw?). Still, are you assuming that it will never be reduced to something more reasonable? Under that assumption, then yes. . . no point having a national grid. But if under 10%, have one.

No sound distribution company will want to sign a long term power supply agreement with a government owned asset (transmission grid). They will not only prove to be unreliable but are also not credit worthy. Nigerian govts don't respect agreements especially with a change in govt. Examples abound!! Discos in Nigeria will prefer to generate and transmit themselves (albeit on a micro scale) so as provide certainty on their business model and financial projections.

GEJ's power sector reform plan addresses that issue. See page 27 of this: http://www.nigeriapowerreform.org/rokdownloads/Roadmap%20for%20Power%20Sector%20Reform%20Full%20Version.pdf


Anyway, I agree, in certain places, you cut out the middle man. If I'm an investor, I buy both Lagos discos, and buy power plants nearby (or find someone trustworthy to partner with.) That way, no reason to deal with the FG.

Rossikk:
ekt bear said:

That's ridiculous. Those 23 power plants are goldmines for any company in possession of them. The govt know that. The firm knows that. They are literally handed a monopoly on power generation, with a $100 billion investment which, if recouped at a profit rate of just $5 billion per annum, reaches maturity in 20 years, with the rest, pure profit from thereon! No govt, knowing that, will agree to sell all the plants for $10 billion. Your analysis fails to include projected earnings to the firm issuing from ownership in the long term, which will definitely be a factor in any value  attached to the plants, and not just the monetary worth of actual physical assets.

Nigeria's power generation capacity is well under 10 GW. A lot of it older and dilapidated.

Here is somebody paying under $700 million for brand new 445 MW power plant: http://www.powergenworldwide.com/index/display/articledisplay/9018079890/articles/powergenworldwide/gas-generation/new-projects/2011/03/german-utility_mainova.html

Do the math.

@kalokalo: Your premise is that transmission losses are very high.

That isn't true, at least in the West

Transmission and distribution losses in the USA were estimated at 6.6% in 1997[9] and 6.5% in 2007.[9] In general, losses are estimated from the discrepancy between energy produced (as reported by power plants) and energy sold to end customers; the difference between what is produced and what is consumed constitute transmission and distribution losses.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission#Losses

Furthermore, if I own a likely very profitable business like the two Lagos power discos, I'd much rather spend my cash wiring everyone, maintaining my infrastructure than investing too much in power generation myself.

However, you are right about Lagos. There it might make some sense to cut out the middle man (transmission grid), especially if the power plants are very close by (which for Lagos is already the case.) In that setting, sure, cut out the middle man and deal directly with the power company.

But in a huge swath of land like NE Nigeria? Probably not a good idea.

Its analogous to telcos in Nigeria preferring to build their own back-haul or transmission system rather than sharing / leasing from Nitel. We don't need a grid system . It is inefficient, expensive and wasteful. The best way to do it is to use a ring system of localized power generation, transmission and distribution.

Well, you still need a way to share electricity across local grids.

And once you do that, then what is the practical difference between that setup and a national grid?

J12:
. . . and what if Jonathan loses this election and the new president (e.g Buhari) does not believe in privatization? What happens to the . . .

That would suck.

i'm hesitant to learn religion from an evil spirit. . . sounds like a trap

It just sounds too fraudulent. A lot of the infrastructure is dilapidated or from the 60s, 70s. Why would they want to pay so much for infrastructure that will require a lot of capital to maintain, improve and fix?

$10 billion sounds like a more reasonable bid for Nigeria's power plants. . . not $100 billion.

Somebody probably made a typo/numerical error or was otherwise confused.

Novice1:
“In the last 12years also all our[color=#990000][/color] children have become WAEC failures, but their children are in the best schools abroad. Now, Nigerian children seek admission in Togo and Benin Republic.”

I am neither PDP nor ACN, but somebody please tell me, WHERE ARE TINUBU'S CHILDREN SCHOOLING?

He isn't an elected official any more (though not quite a private citizen.) So there is no moral compulsion for him to send his kids to Nigerian schools.

@blink182:

This table here: http://i54.tinypic.com/20ztf7s.png
(from http://www.cenbank.org/OUT/SPEECHES/2007/GOVADD10-1-07.PDF)

and this graph here: http://i54.tinypic.com/2zjch2w.png
(from http://www.cenbank.org/OUT/SPEECHES/2007/GOVADD14-5-07.PDF)

Anyway, I don't think the country is worse now than it was in the 90s. A better way to sell a Buhari candidacy is to say that reducing corruption would accelerate growth and progress. . . rather than claiming the country has regressed.

AjanleKoko:
there's going to be a balance in both the upstream and the downstream segments of the sector, similar to India's telecom 'circles'. Essentially, the market is going to be segmented, and there will 'supposedly' be a mix of participation. Let's see how it goes.

What do you mean by this? In layman's terms. The three different segments (generation, transmission, distribution) will be decoupled. But the only "mix of participation" will be in the generation component, not the other two. Transmission and distribution will remain monopolies. Transmission a gov't monopoly (but managed by some 3rd party), distribution local monopolies.

The poverty stuff. There is no way Nigeria is poorer today than it was in 1999. 90s were probably rock bottom in Nigerian history.