₦airaland Forum

woodcook:
Please is it advisable to enter FBNH now abi make I wait small?

If you're targeting dividend or JIJO with a small margin, this is about the best time to enter.

Some of us first entered at N11.00 and have been averaging down since, so we don't really find these small small percentage increase amusing or welcome. For us FBNH has been disappointing to say the least!

peptola:

your call does not spur action and too many loose bits. since you're speculating, price and time should be first contemplated and can then be vaguely specified.
"not this week" is too vague. "FBNH can still go either way" is also vague. "...respite"; vague. "... but they are still going down" this is clearly a good example because stocks are always heading down in a bear market, it's predicting a detailed heading up that's the tricky part.
Also my prediction for a turnaround has little to do with any new 52 week low.

Market, starting with a couple of stocks like Zenith bank, will begin to turn around on Friday if not tomorrow. Then by next week others will follow. Zenith offered good price @ N10.52 today, closed @ 10.96 though 11.00 was expected. If it trades lower tomorrow - take it!

As for FBNH i think we should be patient.

I'm not going to argue, as far as I don't have a crystal ball. However all I said was with respect to the post I quoted. I was as specific as the post I quoted was specific. So I couldn't have added times and dates correct to the second.

Actually stocks are NOT ALWAYS going down. They go up and down - that's the beauty of the trade.

But for the fact that a board meeting is being expected Monday or so next week, I'll be willing to bet that FBNH will still go much further down - throughout this week. God help the management if they declare a very paltry dividend, walai after ex-div the stock will touch N2.00 if care is not taken. Investor confidence in FBNH is at a very low point right now - it doesn't matter if it's justified or not. Of course there'll be a rally if the div yield is very very good (>15%)

As per Zenith, well I consider a rise of between 5% - 11% brief, though I know that would still fetch a lot of people money. Brief, especially if it still goes down after the temporary lift which lasts only a couple of days. This I expect, except there's a very good Q1 result, or Naira devaluation or significant rise in crude price or some other sound economic policy is enacted within the very near future.

But hey I'm not trying to rain on your parade, I'm very well aware that I may well be wrong. Very aware.

peptola:
Please by Friday if not tomorrow we will see an abrupt turn around in some stocks like Zenith, and others. like @Megainvest has rightfully said opportunity is presenting itself

You're not going to see any significant turn around in Zenith bank YET. At least not this week. FBNH can still go either way. I suspect there'll be brief respite for both stocks, yes, but they are still going DOWN. I remember stating the path UCAP was going to take in it's last trading days before it's Ex-div, which it did. The market needs more than just new 52 week lows to stage an effective turn around. Emphasis on 'effective'


But this is just my call (more of speculation). We will see what the market has to say.

holm:
At the moment, share price of listed companies on the NSE, cannot drop below 50k.

Yeah, this is how some of us are consoling ourselves about FBNH

[quote author=megainvest post=44087030]I like this discussion on FBNH. /quote]
Yeah I agree, FBNH is at a precarious position right now.

Investor confidence in its stock seems to be waning due to its stock performance last week after its board meeting.

Now if I want to go by some analysts views of FBNH after its 2014 result, if I'm not mixing things up, it was expected to go into the market to source funds with a public offering. When you add that to statements of the directors hammering on profit retention in order to shore up equity, then a low pay out ratio of its EPS appears very likely.

I've been hoping for a dividend of within 30K - 35K. 50K seems quite high as it would connote a yield of over 13% using it's 50-day moving average price (or 15% if you use it's last close price) and this is not consistent with the industry average, so I don't want to develop BP thinking about it.

I have other reasons to watch the stock though, as it has tied me down for a while now. And yeah I agree short termers may not have the stomach for some of what may happen, but for long term investors, anything is game. Ultimately, i think the market may be too bearish right now for a 15% div yield at most to create a significant and lasting rally

NuttyChoky:
Results of some of the subsidiaries (Insurance) were published this week and their earnings grew... The main problem is the banking subsidiary that had huge O&G impairment provisions

Yeah, even the banking subsidiary's income grew y-o-y from the 9 months result but net income suffered from impaiment charges like you said. However last year they had good results but still chose to hand out peanuts due to the reason I stated. So frankly I'm not very confident of this year's corporate action. The board had a meeting on the 22nd after a closed period and still didn't release results, although the longer they hold, the more beneficial it is to me. Anyway keeping the fingers crossed. It's going to be good. It has to be good

EDUECO:
From1998 to 2014 Full Financial Year,FBNH has never paid less than 60Kobo in dividend except when bonus was included(for example,2014 Financial Year)! May be less than 60 Kobo would be declared as dividend this year.

Yeah the problem is that now, we have FBN Holdings as distinct from First bank with different results and earnings. If companies from the group don't pay the holding company dividend, nothing for us. That's the ojoro they started using since last year. Otherwise we suppose chop better dividend this year. Just keeping my fingers crossed, majority of my stock holding is tied down there, they can't deal me blows both ways - tie down one's cash and still not pay good dividend. Baba God abeg o

Decided not to enter UCAP afterall, doing that now goes against two of my most important trading rules:-

1. Kill greed
2. Never invest all your available funds at a time.

My exposure to stocks at a bearish time is enough. Time to re-strategize

Coolcash1:
bros, E never reach when @megainvest and @mercilicious still dey market...actually, I have reinvested the loot

LOL no be lie

rebekah2011:
It is a function of the units. 1m or 10k?

Of course. I'm assuming my bro there is not talking of just 10k

I'm yet to make anything tangible yet. When prices were bottoming out earlier this year, I didn't have a kobo to spare for stocks so I'm beefing everyone who did, and are reaping the proceeds now. I'm at least allowed that right?

Coolcash1:
That's good. However, if you need the stock let me know so i can discount it for you... Bros, the stock dey sweet me o..Like i said earlier, it has over delivered for me gaining over 140% returns..This is what I call cool investment.

God say we should not envy, so I no go ... kai e dey pain o. . If I were you, I'll just retire for the year. Travel to Cancun go chop your loot quietly...

Coolcash1:
It shows you really don't understand this game..Market all over the work thrives on information. Especially when the information is unexpected and positive investors tend to react in a favourable way. One thing you need to understand is that the company made losses in the past but not a loss making company has most people on this forum normally refer to it which does not preclude its share price from gaining..So long the fundamentals are still solid and management continues to strategically reposition it for greater performance I expect to see changes in the price

No you didn't read what I wrote. A number of people who bought into that stock early on this forum, claimed that they did it on the strength of the info that he had appointed his daughter as ED. Bros who is his daughter? How many companies has she turned around? Where is she known in the business world? So I said that alone IS NOT SUPPOSED to be enough to cause the super rally of >100% in one month. We can choose to disagree on that.

I know the kind of stories we heard about Dangote stocks before and after the 2008 market crash, so I think I have a point. Don't worry I regret not being part of that heist but it doesn't change the fact that the reaction if it was primarily about the appointment of his daughter was over the top. If you say there were plenty other factors involved, fine, on that we agree.

ufotty2001:
how am I a learner because of dangota dAUGHTER

Let's be frank though, that Dangote appointed his daughter an ED ordinarily wasn't supposed to have been enough to make the stock rally as it did. I know there may have been one or two other reasons. So If he had appointed COO of Facebook or Apple or P&G naim be say the stock for reach N10?...Anyway it's why I normally don't like buying Dangote stocks. But it's all good those who did made beautiful returns and I guess that's what matters most.

betcindy:
fbnh likely to give 30k dividend before the week runs out

I'm hoping they don't pay anything less than 35k. Anyway how didyou come about this info, just guessing or confirmed 'gist'?

I think the first offers for UCAP should appear tomorrow, not Thursday. If there are no offers for UCAP tomorrow, that means it's till Wednesday next week.

angelo82:
If you don't know that its good to buy to enter today than tomorrow,then lay back according to your name.

Abeg leave me joor, I don tire for NSE drama. Its too sweet. Telemundo is a learner

Raider76:
Kai!! FBNH na.wah oo. Don't the management know what is called voluntary resignation?

LOL. As in! yeye pipo

Make una no too over hype UCAP especially as I haven't entered

But on a serious note, I think UCAP is getting a lil over hyped on this forum. Why? Well there are 6 trading days left before the registers close. The max it can do per day is 10%, starting today. So say it actually does the 10% daily (best case scenario) it would do 30% by Wednesday, the day before the last trading day of this week. At 30% the not too greedy profit takers will begin to strike and then the price may begin to drop. Once this exit starts, it will continue for the last three remaining trading days before register closure. At this point, best case would be a balance of bulls and bears that's if there's no rush for the exit.

I repeat, for me it's a no-brainer, why would I hold on to a stock to eat div of 20% when I can safely exit at 30% capital gain without the bearish drama later? Except one is buying long term that is not a smart move. And if i want to buy long term, why not exit at say 32% capital gain, stay out, wait for price reduction after ex-div date then re-enter?

Besides UCAP will not do 10% daily - some people actually entered at 1.60 some weeks back.

I guess the point of this epistle is if you're in UCAP please sell now biko, i wan enter. Tainx

rebekah2011:
UCAP is not an illiquid stock. It is very liquid.

OK I stand corrected. That's actually good news to me

Even if UBCAP does 10% increase every day and gets to N2.29, dividend yield will still be attractive at 15.2%.
However many JIJO type of people will rather jump out then than get stuck in an illiquid stock with price depreciation.

But because at 15.2% it will still be one of the most attractive did yields in the market, investors are still likely to rush in.

Personally I won't be to so keen on getting into a not too liquid stock for a 15% yield. But we will see how this one goes. Since it's closure date is still a bit far off, I expect it to rise and then drop due to profit takers.

Just theories...

Godisfaithful:
Sir, it is good to assumed and guess in this new world of our market lol. I know you're joking right lol

Some people will be shocked when even UCAP doesn't appreciate more than say 5% of its last price before closure date.

Hey, I'm just playing with theories here...

I have only one prayer today, whatever the result maybe good or bad, please FBNH wait till Monday onward before releasing results and dividends. Tanshu

Elegantreworks:
Bonus is scrip dividend 1:10 is 10%.....

Sorry I don't get, in material terms does the bonus count towards calculation of div yield? I thought normally the extra shares would not earn dividend at this time?

NuttyChoky:
Una no go hear word with this Oando.

Anyway my rule number one is NEVER buy a loss making stock...

A stock is part ownership of a company and its number one return is dividend not capital appreciation (a side effect)

Buying a loss making stock is speculation not investing ... TOH

Experience is the best teacher

That's how I lost over N500,000 in 2011 after buying Starcomms at 50k per share without any due dilligence. I learn that lesson wella

donmarshia:
In a sane economy, when the Fed reduces interest rates, the equity market is bouyed as some investments are transferred to equity.

With risk free rates, (NTB) specifically around 7% max for the 364 days tenor, it baffles me that with a dividend yield of above 10% for some stocks, there is no immediate positive reaction. This is an anomaly unless the argument below is in place.



One could argue that capital preservation is not certain,( gain 10% on dividend yield, lose 5% on capital loss) or that the risk involved in investing in Nigerian equities considering the macro economic environment warrants a higher risk premium than 3%. (10%-7%).

If the above is the case, then, we are in for a long thing. Despite all, I go chop my dividend and at the least sell my equity holdings at cost price.

nio68:
with the inflation rate now in double digits and increasing at a fast rate, you would understand why a dividend yield of 10-12% isn't attractive anymore, hence the sell off... hopefully if the government can get the rate back to single digits and stabilise it then we may see inflow of capital with likely capital gains.

I quite subscribe to the surmise above. When you consider the Zenith Bank case, the mid to long term out look for the Nigerian Economy still hovers around the threshold of a recession because of some of the reasons quoted above in addition to others. Now remember there are still investors who recently bought Zenith at N9.00 to N10.00 and for these people, selling at say N12.00 still offers better gains, from 20% to as much as 33%. With a bearish outlook as previously stated above, this class of people are likely to sell off at prices even as low as N11.00. This is the best time for them to offload before the bears resume at the beginning of the next quarter. Only when this set of people are done panic - selling should we expect to see some rise. Who knows it may then even rise to as much as N14.00 - N15.00 after reaching a low of about N11.50.

This is just me playing with theories, it's not in any way a sell or buy recommendation o

Chibuking81:
Which of these group is the best? [1] Investors Group, and [2] Jump In Jump Out Group

NA condition make crayfish bend. One has to be dynamic when need arises, if not Wetin consign person with investors group if one can JIJO with 35% for instance every now and then

chillykelly86:
UBA did 60k(20k interim, 40k final). That's very good.

But be wary of Q1 sha. A close scrutiny of the results coming from the banks show sharp drops in Q4 earnings, coupled with graduating loans turned nonperforming due to harsher economic environment ...

You're completely on point.

Though I'm thinking FPIs right now see this and believe the Nigerian economy is still headed for a recession, this in addition to the failure of govt to devalue our currency makes them pessimistic. So they're not persuaded by dividends. They're do not see an exit plan so they'd rather leave now than later when they could be trapped.

Anyway anyone who's in for the long term can sit it out and just chop what is available now. I wasn't planning long term before but as it is now....we are watching...

NuttyChoky:
Abi o...

I have been diluting and diluting wetin dey do me last year

A good dividend will help calm me down

LOL. Hilarious

FBNH declares anything less than 50k dividend, profit warning or not, I'll personally send EFCC after them. So whoever knows them, make e tell them say, no bonus o, just dividend. If UBA can do 40k, I don't know what their excuse is. Haba! More than half my portfolio is tied up in that... thing...

Raider76:
Exactly my position. 12% in 3 weeks ain't bad. Entered yesterday @ 12.92, and will buy more today if it doesn't rally strongly. The registrars for Zenith are also very efficient and pay to the bank promptly.

Yeah! Just imagine those who loaded at N9.00 for instance, that's a clean 17% sweep. Anyway it's all good. Which reminds me, this e-dividend mandate of a thingy, hoping one can have it set up before they pay - if the process is not too cumbersome.

I'm not so sure why shares like Zenith have still not shot up today. The dividend declared today was even more than some analysts forecast and at a little over 12%, it's quite a good yield. Anyway for the first time in a long time, all I'm interested in for the short term is dividend. I'll hold my positions in stocks like Zenith and maybe even acquire more so I even pray make the price drop sef. Na to acquire more, chop dividend and patiently wait for the long term price appreciation. This is primarily because I don't see enough price appreciation in the short term to give enough gains (I entered just today at N12.90K). The market still seems too bearish.