₦airaland Forum

Chibuking81:
It will join soon. It's always good to share idea, I was about concluding to place mtn buy other tomorrow, but I will not, rather let observe market first. With mtn EPs and PE they suppose to be competing with GTB, Stanbic and Zenith in price, not with Dancem that has 2018 FY EPS of 22.83 and pay #16 as dividend. Only Dancem dividend of #16 is times two of mtn 8 EPs.

Mtn price might still get to #160 this week, but it's a bad decision to enter at this material point in time. Its overprice and overvalued from data available.

One buying mtn at tomorrow current price he or she is on his own.

Never buy the hottest asset in town. That is a rule to always live by, no matter how tempting it looks to break the rule.

Agbalowomeri:
Oando has sent Uchenson&sons and B2Brich back to village and locked the village gate

Hahhahahahahahahahaha.

mendes911:
Once MTN join, the bear run will get stronger across all stocks.

The beginning of all mother of all catalysts?

rebekah2011:
Devaluation fit kill person oooo. That trans forcados pipeline dey give person concern.

Someone asked one of my mentors recently if they should buy MTN shares, my oga said "no, buy dollars".

Jejebabaa:
If this market should remain low like this till Jul, i will be one of the most happiest guy on NSEMPA. I am planning to get a foreign loan at 4% interest rate the major risk to it is devaluation. I must not miss this opportunity oo.

I didn't want to talk about this devaluation of a thing, but for your sake sir, I keep doing the numbers, trust me the probability for a devaluation is far higher currently. Will something come along to change this? Maybe, but you taking a forex loan, is basically trusting the Nigerian government to use financial analysis magic to stop the pressure on the naira, it is also you assuming oil prices won't crash in that period. So many assumptions in you taking that loan. Of course you might be lucky, but luck? Hope? Are not strategies.


I have been saying for while that market will keep going down, this partial bull by MTN is creating an Illusion that all is well, with the confidence I have seen about people buying.

I will say this again the probability for capitulation still looks high. Something will be the catalyst, all in all play carefully people.

Mpeace:
Region of what? Mtn is overpriced but not to that extent.

Do you have any info to back this claim?

ernie4life:


yeah long time, trust you are good?

yeah, diamond bank is maturing today, investors will be in search of new bonds to invest in which will definitely drive prices up and yields down,
what most smart investors did was to sell off diamond bank last week and buy other bonds before the price increase but then some people are still caught in the web.

Interesting.

How do one trade on this fixed market instruments though?

jideflash:
Oh boy it was an interesting experience. Unfortunately i came 4th out of 5 nominees in the election of Audit committee members, with the top three selected.
Nothing really new were disclosed today at the AGM even though some strong questions were asked by some Shareholders.
About the Caverton / Osibanjo incident, the Chairman said they cant discuss on the matter as AIB is still investigating. I believe this accident report will be a determiner on Insurance claim or maintenance cost.

Then, there was abit of unruly behavior by hungry shareholders who were majority in attendance, over the sharing of Gift bags. There was so much shouting and pushing, at a time it was like a stampede sef. I totally agree with SEC on the ban of Gift sharing at AGMs. This gifts only attract shameless fellows who careless about the company (as they dont own tangible units of shares) and neither do they contribute meaningful questions and suggestions. They want the AGM end so fast (without grilling the management and board), so they can get the gifts and go to the next event.

Na so one of them come meet me, said; sorry i didnt win the vote, but i should buy him recharge card, and whenever i want to run again, he will help me organise people to vote for me at a fee. He also said he came from Ondo for the AGMs. So basically, it has turn to some Inec vote buying thing.

This country en! We can never change @ bolded.

Thanks for the summary boss, deeply appreciated.

Also, all the best next time.

ernie4life:
Yeah thats true

One would think with all that is happening this particular thread should be active.

Hello everyone.

Hello friend, longest time.

PETERiCHY:
Remember TONY is an EXECUTIVE CHEF

Hahahahahahahaha

Una no go kee person sha.

RabbiDoracle:
I agree with you on the capital flight conspiracy.

Where I don't agree with you is that even if stock falls, whether companies will revaluate their Dividend yields. Fall in the stock market has no effect on the top and bottom lines of companies.

BTW, why STANBİC was not part of the participating banks in the N200b loan?

Hahahahaha. That is a very important question.

Agbalowomeri:
Nothing new
Eye go clear soon

Agba said it!

Agbalowomeri:
I will see more value at 4.5

Lol! This Oga, we think alike sha.

maryjames9:
Love this post. Why are pips on this forum always hiding their needless fears, worries, insecurities under academic toothless analysis, unfounded conspiracies,.... Your business as an investor is to make money. How some guys are manipulating the market is none of your business. How the NSE equity is crashing is none of your business. How the economy is unfavourable, how recession is coming, how terrible the NSE regulators are is not your business.

Your business is to enter the market when the signs and all indicators are favouring the market and pull out immediately there is sign of reversal or consolidation in order to re-enter the market again when sentiments is favourable. I won't be surprised If you folks keep waiting till MTN reach 200 or 500 naira. Too much talk and analysis and fear mongering on this forum.

However, I can't help but admit that this forum has been of tremendous help for me. It has made me known the basic nitty gritty of stocks market generally.

The fact that many people are hoping or feel that MTN will get to 200 naira or 500 naira is a warning sign that someone should thread with caution, of course it could surprise everyone and get to 1,000 naira and some people will laugh or it could surprise everyone and drop to 20 kobo, some people will still laugh. No one knows anything when it comes to price action, no one can predict with certainty, but the probability that I get 13% from Tbills per annum is higher than me predicting the price of any equity, also when an equity has gone up in price and is nearing the overvalued stage, I can always infer that the probability of it going higher is lower than the probability of those with a lower price to go higher.

What does this mean? Buying any stock, no matter how wonderful a business they are on the basis alone of someone will probably buy it higher from you is dangerous. You can label whatever people say or think as anything, but this in itself is the logical fact.

Valueinvestor:
"The safest and most potentially profitable thing is to buy something (fundamentally sound stock) when no one likes it. - Howard Mark

.


Exactly this!

awesomeJ:
Reserves now at $45bn!

https://www.cbn.gov.ng/intops/Reserve.asp

Boss. Have you seen this?

https://businessday.ng/exclusives/article/new-minimum-wage-to-cost-n1trn-exposing-fgs-ugly-fiscal-position/

BrokerHaruna:
Stale news (published in March). Emefiele has been confirmed by the Senate for another 5years tenure! He's going nowhere.

Alright. Thanks for the info.

Who has seen this?



https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/af/idAFL5N20R5LC

.

OakPearl:
Bro, please flag it here next time you run into a deal. You never know.
I would have been interested post-DD.
#Seriously.

Noted.

Kagame:
That was a huge miss!
You could have crowd funded $100k with friends, set up a company/investment vehicle and you are good to go. Everyone gets equity commensurate to his USD contribution.

Yep. A very huge one. I actually tried to, but some of my friends that were interested were broke and the ones that were not broke were not interested. Lol, life!

Funny thing when this MTN thing was spreading around, some of them started calling me and all. Lol, what a life. By then though I was so pissed because I knew I will never buy at 90 naira, nor any further increase from there. Many more opportunities will come, I hope.

Kagame:
On Stanbic IBTC shareholding in MTN. One thing you might note is that a lot of the shares belong to beneficial owners ~ politically exposed persons and some other HNI who would not want their name appear in print for specific reasons. Osinbajo and some other OGs are shareholders but you don’t see their names appear on that list.

You might have also noticed that big men form new companies/investment vehicles just for specific investments. I will detail on this later.

Beneficial ownership,nominees and trusts is the way rich OGs roll!

I tried to buy MTN private equity via Stanbic last year or so, (you would be given a login, like their asset management account etc, there is a special link to it in their asset management site), but one of the rules was being worth over or have 100,000 USD to get in, unfortunately for the broke me I didn't have this. It was actually kinda in plain sight.

Lol!

PharmAlfred:
When they done selling to friends and cronies, they will make it available for us. Then, the gnashing of teeth will start

Hahahahahahahahahaha

I can't stop laughing. As Chibuking said, let them dump it on themselves. I hope retail investors are smarter and ignore MTN totally, but unfortunately people are emotional last last, they can't help themselves. We shall see though.

brandable:
Common sir, you're not fit for this, to be dragging issues with that lady. If you had gone through most of her post you would have seen that she looks for trouble in any thread she goes to, then you would have ignored just like how aremso has done. Biko let it pass. Thanks

My brother. I never even intended to drag any issue o. Just the points being made was what I came after.

In my own lane I am happy with the logic of my argument, other than that, life goes on. Thank you.

pocohantas:
I am yet to see your point.

Stick your apology in your pee-hole.
Thank you

Lol! And you win!

Congratulations.

pocohantas:
Let me ask again, what exactly is your point,
Mr Financial Statement?

Lol, dude, I wasn't wrong. I stand by my point. You can go drink sniper if it hurts that much.

If you can't see my point, then good for you.

I wish you drink lots of your favorite drink though, sniper is kinda toxic, I am sorry I can't find it in my heart to tell you to drink that.

I also apologize if you feel I came after you, well I basically came after your point. We can always disagree and still be friends.

Happy weekend in Advance.

pocohantas:
I will make this very brief, so you don't quote me with another diatribe. Do banks need deposits? Yes. I said it up there, they trade with deposits, which I believe covers the Tbills you all have been on about. Do "branches" rely solely on deposits to make profit? No.
I hope this doesn't fly over your head, Mr Financial Statement.

But tbh, deposit is nothing in the long run. It helps, but it doesn't really impact on the bank's revenue.

What banks love is risk assets or transactions that bring quick money. Like dorm transfers and all. What is deposit? Deposit is just to avoid pool borrowing and probably trade. It doesn't pay salary...

You said that didn't you?

Lol! Because we put the heat on you, you changed the statement to rely solely on deposits. Just admit you were wrong stop trying to save face by substituting words to create a lesser impact to your former argument.

And finally, what is this about branches you keep talking about? Lol! You can't separate the branches from the bank, branches make the bank.

Don't let your own logic fly over your own head, before you try to imply said logic is flying over mine. Thank you.

locodemy:
Have you seen it in their financial reports before?

Let them not quote you o.......

As you can see sir, that was a question with a smile, anyone that takes that seriously... na their business. Lol!

Mcy56:
It seems something is going on in transcorp with the rate they rushed it xtyday and the offer today, looks unusual to the normal one.
Could it be that they are a beneficiary in this whole mtn episode or their acquisition is getting positive attention? Just wondering.

Maybe they owned some MTN shares?

rebekah2011:
MTN Nigeria will continue to be an important arm of the MTN Group. Therefore, I do not think they will want to play any pranks with the Nigerian market. It is a huge market that I feel still has a lot of returns to the group. We can only bid our time to get a bite of the pie. The dividend yields of Seplat, Nestle and of late Dangote Cement have not been stellar relative to their market prices. It, therefore, means that MTNN at N200 is only following such tradition.

I will buy the stock at the right time. Meanwhile, let me continue to load Zenith and UBA.

Boss. It is dangerous to assume that this will continue to be so.

Just because this companies have always been expensive doesn't mean they will always be or have a higher price. Forget all the regulations put in place to cushion shocks, when the next crude oil drop happens there is no way investors will be happy to keep paying a premium for something that has been devalued already, it could be this scenario or any other bubble bursting scenario.

locodemy:
You can say that to stocks like Transcorp.Stocks like Mtn,Nestle and Dangote cem are in a different category.

Let it ride to #200 first and let's see how it will roll back to #90.

There is nothing like different category. It is still market sentiment. Just because market sentiment favors them today doesn't mean it will tomorrow.

Overvalued is overvalued especially when it will take more money to make 1 naira compared to other companies.

There is a difference between a good business, and a good investment.

pocohantas:
So, once a branch has huge deposit, it makes profit? Nice to know that...

Yep!

Basically. That is why your CBN governor was complaining last year about banks investing too much in Tbills instead of lending to businesses that need money.

I will advise many of you here to try and read financial statements and understand the fine prints before basing arguments on what you think you know Instead of what is facts.