₦airaland Forum

nitrogen:
Tesla is not just an auto industry player, business model is quite unique.

This is their revenue breakdown so as far as I can see, they are an automotive company with a 6% side hustle in low KW electricity storage, unless you are talking of something that hasn't materialised yet.

iamJ:
35% is alot and you aren't even considering the fact that they own most of the patents for the technology, each tesla on the road is feeding tesla valuable information

Self driving technology alone is worth billions, tesla is ahead by decades

Battery production is another cash cow waiting to be milked

tesla's capacity utilization is 72 per cent 72% is a big deal for a car manufacturing company

They wouldn't own 50% of the market, they will own like 35% same thing they said about apple when android began to blow up, isn't apple still standing, make good products and people will place you above local brands

Tesla is not getting 35% of any market. They will be lucky to get 10%. China, Africa and a good chunk of Latin America already rule them out of that market due to Chinese restrictions and availability of electricity in the third world.

Let's get to some numbers to see Teslas potential slice of the pie. Total yearly revenue of all auto companies last year was $1.03trn. Net margin is 4-5% so let's assume $50bln net margin. To get to valuation, let's multiply by S&P500 current PE Ratio of 38 which is $1.9trln. Tesla valuation is already 44% of that.

When we start talking of $25k cars, Tesla Net margin will drop to Industry standards. Ford makes $2.2k Gross profit per car for example.

Take another approach - About 65 million new cars are sold per year. Going by Ford's average Gross profit per car of $2k, that is $130bln per year. Again we can assume after overheads, $50bln of that is net profit. So once again, Tesla would have to control around 44% of the total car market in the future with a payback period of 38 years to justify it's current valuation ignoring inflation.

The current behemoth of the auto industry, Toyota has a market share of 10% and we still have other players to come such as Google, Amazon, NIO, other Chinese and many Euro consolidations and buy outs of smaller EV companies with good EV technology in Europe. So putting Tesla at 44% market share is nuts.

iamJ:
35% is alot and you aren't even considering the fact that they own most of the patents for the technology, each tesla on the road is feeding tesla valuable information

Self driving technology alone is worth billions, tesla is ahead by decades

Battery production is another cash cow waiting to be milked

tesla's capacity utilization is 72 per cent 72% is a big deal for car manufacturing company

They wouldn't own 50% of the market, they will own like 35% same thing they said about apple when android began to blow up, isn't apple still standing, make good products and people will place you above local brands

Tesla is not ahead of any self-driving technology. Waymo owned by Google parent company is a couple of years ahead of any competitors. Self-driving relies on sensors and maps, there is no kryptonite technology that Tesla has over anyone else.

Battery storage technology can easily be caught up, even the Chinese will do it and are already doing it, and have more EVs on the road than Tesla including buses.

Electricity storage revenue for Tesla is only 6% of their revenue, and is for storage of small quantities of electricity. Electricity companies have been storing electricity in grids in the Megawatts using batteries, compressed air etc for decades. Where Tesla is leading right now is in compact battery storage which can be caught up.

All these are just the same arguments we hear in the cult of Elon Musk echo chamber to justify some overvalued prices and keep such overvaluation going. Google through its investment companies also have thousands of technology patents and are at the cutting edge of many technologies but you don't hear them being hyped like Tesla because they don't have a personality cult following.

iamJ:
they are the leaders today in electric cars manufacturing and the other brands are decades behind them


Also the world is slowly phasing out combustion engine, tesla is still going to grow and explode like amazon did, they will dominate that market for a very long time

Also they have vertically integrated most of the component manufacturing, they not only own the patent to important future technologies but they are the leading force like apple did with phones


People like Micheal burry that are shorting telsa are going to lose hard, if things continue at current pace, they will not only achieve that possibility of a $25,000 car but they will be able to handle the demand, that is the day engine combustion death stopwatch will begin

Energy density for batteries are improving, it will soon catch up with fuel and then it's a matter of when not if

Electric cars are the future and one company has vertically integrated that future today

Underate Tesla at your own peril

Ok, let's get back to numbers. Let's assume Tesla has a $25k car and sells more than VW, BMW and Mercedes combined are selling now.

Tell me why they should be currently valued more than Mercedes, Toyota, VW, BMW, Ford, Honda, GM, Chrysler, Peugeot, Nissan, Hyundai who already control almost all of the market and already sell most of the $25k cars.

The market has a finite number of car users so valuation must be tied to that. As for battery storage, I want to see how much of Teslas revenue comes from that which is less than 6% of their revenue. I'm not swayed by the salesmanship on Elon on Twitter who will make out like storing 10KW of electricity in batteries in Australia is the best thing since sliced bread. Energy companies who really do this will be laughing.

Unlimited22:
Na so Myspace bin dey look Facebook. Na so Yahoo bin look Google too.

These disruptions happen. Tesla moved early.

These are all power of network companies whose value is derived from their number of users. Just like tiktok can overtake Badoo in ten days, it's to be expected. Besides Google and Facebook got their PE Ratio to a comparable value against the rest of the market within 5 years of listing. How long are we giving Tesla?

Tesla on the other hand derives it's value from sale of discrete units of product so we have to tie it's valuation to that and the future prospect of sales, not some network growth theory. European, Chinese and Japanese car makers will catch up and will get support from their Govts to do so, both in terms of subsidies, tax breaks and technology sharing, while European car users are often fiercely loyal and won't easily dump their national car companies for Tesla. Regulatory ban on petrol and diesel car sales does not come into force in the EU until 2040 and believe you me, they will get their companies ready for it, not just hand over the market to Tesla. Tesla valuation is driven by a dream 20 years from enforcement that requires them to own like 50% of market share. That's impossible.

LordReed:
Woman with ‘Don’t tread on me’ flag trampled to death at Capitol riot

https://www.dailydot.com/debug/woman-with-dont-tread-on-me-flag-trampled-to-death-at-capitol-riot/

RIP to the Trumpanzee

Unlimited22:
We're saying the same thing. Wework were a landlord masquerading as a tech company, bamboozling investors with buzzwords and having a greedy idiot as a CEO.

Tesla, on the other hand, actually have a product that people want to buy. And they are working on growing and monetizing their Network of charging stations for other EVs, which is why they want an industry standard charger across board. That will give them a signifucant first mover's advantage.

Plus the work going on, on hydrogen fuel cell technology.

IWG are a landlord too with a billion dollar valuation, and they are PROFITABLE.

Tesla's valuation is excessive and it will definitely ride a few lows, but their tech can actually carry them to even more highs. It's not just cars.

Wework, on the other hand, sold a dream and had a cash injunction that made those valuation ridiculous.

I'm not sure it's about riding a few lows. If Tesla valuation was 1/10th it's current value, you could say "Yes I believe they will be worth that in the future" with their technological superiority.

By that I mean, they could be worth $80bln if they actualise their potential and take a good fraction of the market. They are currently worth $800bln. BMW, GM are worth $40-$50bln. So you see, they are looking Tesla like "na only you waka come?" just like how IWG was looking WeWork.

Unlimited22:
Tesla are actually making and selling cars.

Wework were a real estate company masquerading as a tech company, being fed financial cocaine by Masa Son.

Look at IWG, a real estate landlord who presented itself as such. Valued highly, profitable, and isn't going under today even with the pandemic.

This comparison seems like apples and oranges.

Tesla stock might be overvalued. Even I think so.
But to say they're the new wework is overreaching a tad.

WeWork were actually leasing office space. So the comparison between both is in their overvaluation. Is BMW a tech company?

iamJ:
read up on companies properly, tesla isn't just a car company, it's a conglomerate of different small businesses that feed off the car business, they even have more models in the works, speedster is coming, on battery day elon talked about a new battery that they will be designing and how they are going to vertical integrate the production, Cyber truck, even the $25,000 tesla that holy grail car that will anilate combustion engine industry completely

They have charging stations that they make money off, guy telsa is still undervalued in my opinion, the growth of that company especially with musk as its head is exponential

Space X is another monster that might go public in the future, if musk separates starlink from space X, space X will still be worth at least 200billion, if starship works, multiply that by 5

I follow elon and all his businesses, find the guy fascinating.

Which company does not have after-sales service?

SpaceX and Boring are not part of Tesla and irrelevant to the valuation of Tesla.

These are the sort of lines of thought that started the disconnect between Teslas valuation and it's fundamentals, mixing and matching unrelated aspects of the person of Elon Musk.

Don't be a fool at 60. From Wednesday to Friday

MaziAlaye:
The point is, Big Tech has decided they are the arbiters of truth. And we’ve seen them weild this sword with extreme partiality. Twitter and facebook have begun purging conservative accounts. The ‘incitement’ label is a pretext for a plan that has long been in place.
If tomorrow I don't like your politics, I can just de-platform you. That's me having so much power.

Wether you're right or left, Trump suspension shouldn't be seen as a W for whatever you support.

You wouldn't know the meaning of Conservatism if it smacked you in the face. Trump and his bunch of white supremacist chimpanzees have abused that word. I am a Conservative and Trump has nothing to do with Conservatism. Spreading of blatant lies and misinformation is not Conservatism, nor is running up unprecedented deficits.

nihilistjnr:
I'm convinced 2021 is the year to cash out on savvy investment. Covid is such a huge opportunity.

It's everything that is going up, real estate, crypto, stocks. Everything.

That same last week, I say make I just even test small change in stocks at random, and I'm 5% up....in a few days!

I'm hearing that bank of England is even preparing to roll out negative interest rates, and rishi sunak is pumping another 4 Billi in grants before April gaan..

Everybody is going to just hang their spare cash somewhere at least till summer, maybe even to the end of the year.

Yes, I'm with you on that to a certain extent because Biden has promised to continue pumping liquidity so the train ride will continue deep into this year I think. However to tackle 2021 requires diversity across different holdings as individual stocks can go up or down 10% in a day, but generally on a bull run. This requires strong vigilance of constantly checking your portfolio on almost a constant basis which casual investors like us will not have time for. My approach is to put half my investment in fund managers in êtoro who can constantly check price swings and close positions for me while I just check my balance once a day and it's very stress free. They are up 2% for me just since start of January which is just one week. Anything above 10% for the year, I'll be happy with but I think they can do 40-80% for me in an expected bull market.

The other half, I keep in Kōinbaße for high risk crypto run which I'm still waiting to correct itself. I probably missed a chance and should have stayed in as I clocked in Saturday and clocked out Sunday but that one requires a lot of constant checking which I don't have time for, so I'll just chill till I see a more palatable entry point at which I can just fire and forget without constant checking.

User09:
Not exactly the same; More structural in the case of Tsla.

We are in unison in terms of it being overvalued, not on the bust premise though.

Quick question - Why not short them, U seem really convinced

When Fed start to withdraw liquidity, you can start to think of shorting. Till then na to chill. The guy that shorted mortgage CDS and made billions did so from 2005 until it paid off in 2008. He was in red for 3 years and investors were pressuring him to withdraw. I can't afford that, my wife fit kill me.

User09:
Of course.

The age long bias of Value Investors towards the Tech Sector

Still waiting for the bubble to burst on Facebook, Apple and co

Apple PE Ratio is 40, in line with market average. They are actually a cash business, and their market cap is only 3 times their net asset value, a lot of which is held in raw cash.

Facebook PE Ratio is 30, lower than market average. They are now a mature business, but also fit in with your theory of exponential growth from the power of networks (tech stocks). Their price to book ratio is 6.5

The Tech stock analogy is used too literally with Tesla. They ultimately rely on car sales just like Apple rely on phone sales. They are a sales business with PE ratio of 1,700 and price to book ratio of 48.

We are not talking explosive network-driven tech here but physical sales of cars which currently is 500,000 cars for Tesla. If you combine Toyota, VW, BMW, Ford, Honda, GM, Chrysler, Peugeot, Nissan, Hyundai together, their valuation is not up to Tesla for essentially the same business of buying and selling cars which all of them do exponentially more than Tesla. In 20 years time, Tesla must be able to sell more cars than all of them combined to keep up this valuation. Will Tesla continue to have such a superior advantage in technology over all car makers in that period to justify such valuation. The Chinese car maker NIO has been boosting my portfolio this week simply on the premise that they have comparable technology to Tesla, but they go one further in that their batteries are detachable and you can swap your batteries for fully charged batteries at designated swapping points instead of waiting to recharge. NIO is now worth double GMs value just because of this. So you see, Tesla can easily be disrupted. Tesla is just the WeWork of the car industry for now. Companies with 10 times more leased square footage were wondering why WeWork had 10 times their valuation, until kasala burst for WeWork.

Trevor012:
Why are you always predicating everything to Burst? You are always predicating doom in everything.

You can't get away from underlying value. Just because institutions have money to spend (liquidity due to Govt bailouts) now does not mean there is value in what they are buying. In the long run, your valuation must have correlation to your earnings or balance sheet. Tesla is valued at over 1,700 times their yearly earnings (PE Ratio). That means if I was to buy Tesla as a company now and rely on its profits to make my share capital back, it will take over 1,700 years to make it back for me (ignoring inflation). S&P500 current average PE Ratio is 38 and historic PE Ratio is 19. Yes, you allow for higher than average PE for emerging technologies, but not 50 times the average. Tesla technology is not irreplicable. For context, the increase in Teslas value just yesterday (one day) can buy the whole of General Motors. In simple terms, value investing wins over the long run while speculative investing may hammer or go bust. Depends on your attitude to risk.

Amoto94:
My Oga I asked you the other day whether you read Nassim Nicholas Taleb books or not it seems you didn't see it.

Sorry, no

A40:
Forget Bitcoin. Come see wetin people dey chop for $TSLA

Tesla is the poster boy for the current market bubble, more than octupling in price in 1 year and with a Price-Earnings ratio 50 times the S&P average. A lot of people will cry when Tesla burst.

Ibime:
Jack Dorsey made Trump and Jack Dorsey will finish Trump by sending him to the backwater of Parler.

See the way the guy was so quiet, softly giving one-word answers when Ted Cruz was shouting and trying to bully him in Senate hearing as to why he constantly fact-checks Trump. Na that day my respect for Dorsey increase. Cruz no know say shoe get size.

My nigga.

Like I said. My nigga.

AmazonTopaz:
Look at how Trump mocked Cruz's wife even insulted his father yet the man wanted to capitalize on his deplorable supporters to win in 2024 all because of selfish interest he stood with Trump how will a man support a man that insulted his wife as a wife I will feel offended.Unfortunately for him he has ruined his chances and there are calls for his resignation publisher or so I can't get the right term to use that wanted to publish Josh Hawley's stupid book has said they will not anymore because of what happened these two men have ruined their political careers

Trump even lied that Ted Cruz father was involved in JFK assassination.

Ted Cruz is the most despicable slimeball in US politics, even worse than Trump.

nihilistjnr:
Oboi I enter beet at £25k on Wednesday and k0inbeezy dey show me say I dey up 4k in that period.

But wahala con dey, ekschange verification process is utter shït,my akant is currently restricted, so I can't move my package to hard storage, and I can't transfer to another wollet.

The only thing I'm allowed to Dois likwidate to feyat, and gerrout of their platform. I don log support call tire, even hounding them on Reddit - nothing changed.

4butungbali. Now im trapped, I could take my small gains and japa, or lose my place in queue.

It suppose take 3 or 4 days to verify. Lef am there. By the time they verify, your $4k done turn to $8k. Wetin you get there na digital wollet so I don't see the rush to transfer to cold wollet. Bear in mind, you have a 1.5% charge both when buying and selling so if you're not ready to sell, keep am for their wallet. You try sef, as you talk am here, you go do straight away. I enter reach £900 profit on Saturday. As the profit drop to £400, I close position. I just leave my cash there waiting for the thing to drop to buy again but it just dey rise since and fear no gree me reenter for now.

Obrigardo:
I have been following this ashli babit story and i can say she is a real product of donald trump's cult. Just dig up about her, you will or may not be too surprised.
Watch what happened before she was shot. The girl was a terrorist, and her intention was to harm someone

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2021/01/08/ashli-babbitt-shooting-video-capitol/

She was a real unhinged Trumpanzee. I have seen her videos and postings. RIP to the Trumpanzee

rationalmind:
This return is on what amount of capital pls?

Like $14k

PDPGuy:
Abeg oh, I don’t want any shorting of MARA. I want it to keep rising to over $30
Besides, even if Bitcoin loses $2k over the next few days, I won’t be too bothered cos MARA won’t depreciate drastically, and bitcoin would recover the loss quickly

MARA and Riot are far more volatile than Bïtcoin. If Bïtcoin drops drastically, MARA will tailspin. If Bïtcoin rises 50%, MARA and Riot will moon.

seankafor:
Which kind nonsense lineup Aston villa out for here

They are in with a good chance of top 4 this season. This is the season for them to get knocked out of cups early and focus all energy on the league cos the league schedule is brutal every 3 days

seankafor:
one thing..
You no wan take risk but you wan hit goldmine.. how

Best time to take risk is not at $40k. It could hit $50k or drop to $30k or lower. That one na gambling.

PDPGuy:
Yes oh
I’m happy MARA is absolutely flying! You were right on bitcoin, and I see it hitting $50k soon

Nah I wasn't right on Bïtcoin. I was expecting a correction in the short term before it proceeds again. I don't have the stomach for Bïtcoin jare cos I keep expecting it to crash. I did small trade on Saturday evening when it was around $31k, rode it up to $34, as soon as it dropped to $32k, my mind cut and I withdrew. Since then its gone to 41 but I don't have the stomach at any of these prices. I will wait for a steep correction before I enter. In the meantime, I just prefer to be collecting steady $30 or $40 gains per day from my êtoro copies, that one is stress free that I just check once or twice a day, not refreshing my phone every minute like when I'm in bitcoin position. I'm.just waiting for Bïtcoin to start dropping to short MARA and Riot, then when it stabilises, I will enter long position on bïtcoin. Till then na siddon look.

I said in a post some weeks ago that Lil Wayne should do quick and plead guilty to his current court case so Trump can pardon him

Another Trumpanzee that lost his job for livestreaming his insurrection

This mumu Trumpanzee just lost his job. He invaded Capitol building with his work lanyard on his neck

PrideofLincoln1:
They can impeach him in the House but those spineless and gutless republicons in the Senate will not do anything to him. We just hope that he won't go batshit crazy in 11 or 12 days remaining for him. His days of reckoning is around the corner and he will spend his last years in jail or in misery somewhere in exile.

Even if the Republicans don't go along with it, let him go on record as the only President to be impeached twice.

Swissh:
Cc Skimpledawg

Drop your account details in an empty thread and tag me.

Welcome back. Na El-ru-debtor remain.

gensteejay:
Have you seen the report below, bro:

CNN: Yes, you can still get infected with Covid-19 after being vaccinated. Here's why.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/health/covid-vaccinated-infected-wellness/index.html

We don't know the exact date when COVID-19 vaccines will get to Nigeria. A yellow fever vaccine was circulated in some parts of Nigeria last month, and I also had a shot.

Yes, it's written on the pack they gave me. You may still be infected but there is a 94% chance you don't fall sick.

The first dose covers 75% chance and the second dose will bump you up to 94%.

It is not determined if it will cover the new South African variant apparently due to changes in the spike protein. . . but that's the same as the flu vaccine which does not cover every variant of flu.

This vaccine will be a yearly vaccine as antibodies deplete after a few months. My friend who had Covid will be going for her 9 month antibody test soon. She still had antibodies after 6 months, although another colleague who had a mild version of Covid lost his antibodies after 6 months.

I don't know whether Nigeria will be able to afford yearly innoculations. We are not used to organising seasonal vaccination unlike say the UK that organises yearly flu jab and will just add SARS-COV2 vaccine into the flu jab eventually. Na to pray for Bill Gates to sponsor remain.