₦airaland Forum

Carmal90:
Pls who is the respected presenter?mr jarus forget offa,the battle is won by lola ashiru,cos he is from offa.but hopefully we will still talk about this after the election.maa salam

Teedoe25:
Bros am from kwara south no waste ur time @ all na only kwara central buhari fit get 70% vote. But for kwara south i can give him 40% sha. And Even if buhari win kwara state, That ur so called nonsense Governor cannot win next month election for kwara state. Ajibola for kwara 2015 by God's grace

Preciousjoz:
this is really shocking! I am shocked, I cant believe my eyes. I can't just believe that JARUS- a man I regard and have so much respect for- is supporting APC. I am born and bred in Omu Aran and I can tell you one thing for sure: APC will be disappointed! state level or federal level. I can't vote for any party that has Bukola Saraki in it and all friends hate Him as much as I do! We are educated, we can't be taken for a ride anymore and we are prepared: this nonsense must stop. God will vindicate Kwara from all the oppression your cohorts had put us in!

BABSIN:
JARUS, God bless oh.

info reaching me is that Offa is going with Jonathan. This your gingle is infact coming at the right time. Those old men and women still believe in the Government of the day. I am presently in Ogbomosho....intact they are all waiting for Akala to tell them those direction to go to. That how crude their thinking is right now.

elbinmanny:
The APC Presidential candidate Gen. Muhammadu Buahri could barely fill his INEC election form.
Wonder if he could not differentiate between surename and other names.

olapluto:
As a resident of Oyo state, I read your analysis and was shaking my head.
PDP is pseudo-dead in Oyo state. If you go on Youtube to watch Jonathan's campaign at Mapo hall, you will see what I mean. The movers and shakers of Oyo Politics as of today were all absent. PDP in Oyo state is as good as dead. Am glad you actually did not include the PDP guber candidate in your analysis.
How GEJ will fare in Oyo state...poorly.
Objective analysis:
1. The votes in Oyo state can be broadly split into Ibadan, Oyo and Oke Ogun. Oyo town and Oke Ogun, including the 7 Ibarapa are most likely going to vote en masse for Buhari. Oke Ogun can be likened to Iwo in terms of religion, with a culture similar to that of the North. The fact that GEJ played religious card all through will make it hard for him to get 20% of Oke Ogun votes.
Oyo and Saki axis will be for BUhari.
Ibadan is the GEJ's only hope of any few votes he will get. I think GEJ will do very well to get anything above 30% of Oyo state votes. In Osun, GEJ will not get up to 20%.

EKITI STATE
This state would go to the PDP handily. Right here, the governor Ayo Fayose holds sway: he has a kind of cult following. Granted that the ex-governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi still somewhat a factor, I don't see anything other than a tidy PDP victory here. I believe the APC lost this state after the last gubernatorial election.

Prediction: PDP 65% APC 35%

LAGOS STATE
Lagos is the veritable melting pot of Nigerian nationalities and I foresee this playing a role in the outcome. The national leader of the APC, ex-governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears to be in charge here, but his popularity is coming under the severest test since 1999. On the PDP side, their performance would depend on how the trio of Chief Bode George, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro and Sen Kingsley Adeseye Ogunleye mend their fences and forge a unity of purpose.

The close match in popularity of the guber candidates of both APC and the PDP viz Mr Akinwunmi Ambode and Mr Jimi Agbaje respectively hardly helps matters.

In the final analysis, I believe the non-Yoruba voters in Lagos would marginally swing Lagos in favour of the PDP.

Prediction: PDP 53% APC 47%

OGUN STATE
This is state is one of the toughest state to predict in the region. It has a history of rubbishing predictions in the past. This states has in its role call political gladiators of almost every shade. A peep: Baba Olesegun Obasanjo, Chief Segun Osoba, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Kashamu Buruji, Governor Ibikunle Amosu, Dimeji Bankole and others.

However, recent developments will tilt this state to the APC. Firstly the Jonathan/Obasanjo face-off couldn't have come at a worse time for the PDP. Besides, the APC Vice-Presidential candidate hails from here.
On the flip side, the PDP would, contrary to most predictions, record a good showing here. Buruji wields some influence here. Jonathan's best minister comes from this state. APC crisis that saw ex-governor Osoba decamp with all three sitting senators and some members of HOR to the SDP will harm the APC. Finally, Gbenga Daniel with the Sagamu factor is still relevant here.

Prediction: APC 60% PDP 40%

ONDO STATE
Despite the purported rift in Ondo PDP, I think Mimiko is still in charge here. Mimiko has demonstrated considerable staying power on the political turf and I don't see that changing in the next thirty days.
The most reverred political figure in this state is Chief Olu Falae, the leader of Social Democratic Party. It is expected that the SDP would endorse Jonathan for the election.
For the paucity of many key political players in this state, I think the PDP will comfortably carry the day cue Governor Segun Mimiko.

Prediction: PDP 65% APC 35%

OSUN STATE
This state gave the PDP the least vote in the region in 2011 and I don't see that changing. Governor Rauf Aregbesola is popular here and would greatly sway things in favour of the APC.
However, the PDP are no paper-weight here. Iyiola Omisore hails from the important Ife axis and depicted his potency by garnering about 45% of total votes cast in the last guber election. Something has also to be said about Femi Fani-Kayode who is among the emerging young Turks in the SW political calculations.

Prediction: APC 66% PDP 34%

OYO STATE
This state has to be too close to call. The main gladiators here are evenly matched. There is hardly much that could distinguish among the incumbent governor Abiola Ajimobi and ex-governors Christopher Alao-Akala and Rasheed Ladoja. The re-election of the sitting governor is by no means guaranteed.

I believe the sitting governor would be engrossed in trying to save his skin and may have been building bridges to accomplish the objective.
The emergence of Sen Teslim Folarin appears to be a gameplan by the PDP to strike a trade-off to win this state in the presidential election.

Prediction: PDP 53% APC 43%

deletrue:
I disagree with you. Even if what you are claiming is true, who do you think Tunde is? Is he not one the bloody yorubas who are very foolish? Tell us region killed MKO Abiola? Who gave General Diya the highest degree of humilation and almost killed him. Tell us that person? So why do you think there are other Nigerians who are more like barbarians than yorubas?
Look at Obasanjo, who is, as at today, the most celebrated old fool. Make I finish yoruba for you?

deletrue:
If your father Lawal was alive, he will disown you. Remember today that your father will hold you down as you are jubilating over who killed your father. Am sure your children are hearing this your confession. In the same vain, your downfall will be celebrated shortly by your children. You are indeed one of most wayward, aimless and without direction.

FolarinLondon:
Why must you insult your progenitors by calling them "Slaves"? They served Hausa/Fulanis cos of your future in Nigeria.....

smudge2079:
D devil u know...be careful of what u wish for. Suddenly Buhari is d saviour. Don't get me wrong am not team GEJ..
My point is Both of dem are not saints. So d butterfly is in ur hands Nigerians...do it as u like.

masterpower:
IF BUHARI EVER WINS THIS ELECTION, THEN THE YORUBAS ARE FINISHED.

HE KILLED YOUR FATHER AND NOW YOU WANT TO VOTE HIM?

VOTE HIM AND HE WILL COME AGAIN, KILL YOU AND WIPE OUT YOUR ENTIRE FAMILY AND SLEEP WITH YOUR WIFE.

COWARDS OF A PEOPLE.

I am not a card carrying member of the APC or PDP, and I do not have a vote in this election cycle. I was also not paid to write this and I am also sure this article will not generate a nationwide traction to determine where the pendulum swings in the February elections. The only motivation is that I take pride in the unity and development of Nigeria and I am nothing sitting on the fence.

In addition to the aforementioned, my father was one the three young men executed by General M Buhari (rtd), the presidential candidate of the APC with a retroactive law some 30years ago. Yet, I HOPE.

The forthcoming February Presidential election is different from all other elections we have seen since the advent of democracy in 1999. The Presidential election has never been aggressively contested, but that has changed in this cycle, thanks in large part to the leaders that formed the APC and a more aware electorate. The electioneering process has not changed much, with the top two political parties relying solely on politicians. The caliber of politician that makes up the Presidential campaign council, for me, is often an indication of how the candidate governs once (s) he becomes President. Mediocre politicians are given the nod to occupy and lead sensitive political and public institutions ahead of their colleagues who understand and know what it takes to govern and deliver social goods to the larger populace.

This traditional way of campaigning and electioneering is partly responsible for the failure we have witnessed in the last 12yrs (with focus on the presidency) but it seems this is about to change.

For the first time in our 16years of democracy, the caliber of politicians I see around the APC candidate, General Mohammad Buhari, gives me hope that something might actually change if he wins.

The chance of a Babatunde Fashola being the chief of staff to a President Buhari excites me because the two term serving governor of Lagos understands the issues and he comes across as a policy wonk. His political experience as Governor of Lagos state will also come in handy in getting policies formulated, passed through the National assembly and implemented to ensure a utilitarian social good. The office of Chief of staff to the President is a very important one because it serves as ‘the power behind the throne’, in saner climes, and the slim chance of a BRF leading that office inspires hope.

I am almost certain that Oby Ezekwesili’s name would pop up when the time comes to fill sensitive Ministerial post in a Mohammadu Buhari presidency given her closeness to Nasir elrufai (The next governor of Kaduna State) and his closeness to a potential Presidential Buhari. The slim chance that the woman Japheth Omojuwa once proclaimed as the ‘Mother of the Nation’ – for her lead role in the noble BBOG movement – leading a sensitive Ministry as the Petroleum or Education Ministry Inspires hope.

EKITI’s loss could be Nigeria’s gain in a Buhari Presidency. I have not seen any Nigerian; military or civilian dissect the problem and possible solution to the boko haram insurgency as Kayode Fayemi did during the interview he granted on 60 minutes with Angela. His grasp and succinct explanation of the different strands of boko haram shows that if given a chance he could make a real impact and formulate a comprehensive policy that can help tame these monsters that have ravaged parts of the NE unabated. His understanding of civil – military relations indicates he is capable of leading the Ministry of Defense with gusto. The slim chance this might happen also inspires hope.

In the words of Babatunde Fashola, President Jonathan fired the hardworking and performing Bolaji Abdullahi as sports minister for political expediency. The slim chance that he could make a return to continue his good work in that ministry in a Buhari Presidency inspires hope.

These individuals and many more I did not mention are not saints but they inspire hope because of their track records in public service and for some accidental reasons majority of them are in the APC. They represent examples of quality leaders Oby Ezekwesili refer to when she wrote thus;

“For each of these countries, the stage was set for commencement of their economic transformation from Low Income Country (LIC) status to Upper Middle Income Country (MIC), MIC or close to MIC respectively by the advent of quality leadership at both their political and public institutions that in turn resulted in high public sector efficiency. At the epicenter of this efficiency was, and remains, the investment in leadership of the kind that drove a national vision which placed education, intellect, values, reward for only strenuous effort and hard work at the centre of their development strategy. Once the public sector was set aright, it freed up the private sector and the rest of society to aspire to perform at their maximum possibilities.

You don’t have to agree with the aforementioned, but empirical study proves it to be very true.

The very first sign of a potentially bad government is the caliber of politicians that surrounds a candidate during electioneering – pay-back time is inevitable and its negates the utilitarian calculation that supports the provision of social goods for millions of my compatriots against the few PCC members and their cohorts and that is what the PDP represented in 2011 and now. I am sure there are quality leaders in the PDP but POTFRON has shown nothing but a lack of will to put such a team together. That in addition to an abysmal performance for 6yrs makes me see hope in the APC presidential ticket.

Political will is a necessary tool for the economic prosperity of every country, democratic or otherwise. A historical analysis of the Nigerian state has shown that the political will that serves as a catalyst for economic prosperity and development has been lacking. Our problems – I won’t bore you by listing them, as well all know what they are – are solvable, oh yes they are!!! To solve them we have to commit and vote for the potentially best team in February.

The majority voting bloc in Nigerian can neither read nor write, hence, the onerous task of educating our brothers, sisters, mothers, fathers, uncles, aunt and close friends rest on the shoulders of those of us that are educated. We have to inspire hope in them about this team and convince them on the need to vote the Buhari/Osinbajo ticket.

The Buhari/Osinbajo ticket and all the potential ‘technocratic politician’ that comes with them for me is the best team this time around. They represent a recipe that will take us from the brink, and lay a solid foundation for a better and solid tomorrow. We need radical monetary, economic, and political reforms and the transformation agenda of the last six years is nothing but a mirage and joke we must and should not continue with. History is replicate of countries that are prosperous and those that are beginning to prosper. The foundation of such prosperity is laid on; Infrastructure – like the interstate road system that Germany invented but which the U.S have mastered; massive funding for science and technology which has been fingered as responsible for India’s growth; a virile public-education system that encourages the study of science and math. Borrowing from the words of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, we have to download and modify the killer apps that have proved and are still proving to be working for prosperous countries – competition, modern science, the rule of law and private property rights, modern medicine, the consumer society and work ethic. These apps can be downloaded and modified to suit the Nigerian experience and these lads – Buhari/Osinbajo and their team – have the requisite political will, experience and or knowledge to deliver. They simply are the best team and we have to join hands with them irrespective of our reservations to make their dream a reality so that our dreams can be a reality.

The Presidency should be a great dynamo producing fresh ideas; the force of those ideas as they resonate across the nation is a pretty safe gauge of an administration’s intention and vitality.

1985, Three young men , Lawal Ojuolape (30), Bernard Ogedengbe (29) and Bartholomew Owoh (26) were taken to bar-beach. Those days that was the place where condemned criminals faced the firing squad. What was the offence of these three young men you might ask?.They had been found guilty of drug trafficking. Death penalty for drug traffickers was a decree that the Buhari/Idiagbon military junta introduced after they had seized power from Shagari.

There was public outcry,people pleaded for their lives to be spared. International organisations jointly called for the halt in their execution but to no avail. Buhari insisted that discipline must be instilled! death was the way?

That faithful morning they were led with their hands and legs bound. Eye witnesses say when they were tied to the spot in which they were to be shot,the three of them started singing. They sang a religious song that made the excited onlookers cry. As the bullets ripped through their body,hitting vital organs and their blood splattered through the air,Nigeria killed Nigerians. The most controversial of the three killed was Bernard Ogedengbe,whose crime was committed before it even became a capital offence that carried the death penalty. Buhari refused,he didn’t budge.

MalcoImX:
Picture or IDBI.

bingbagbo:
is christiano ronaldo not a striker too?

holicalpha:
And buhari's win could be disastrous that we might not recover from it for over decades and that's a serious set back, the devil you know is better that angel you don't know.

Signed
-------VALAR MOGHULIS.