₦airaland Forum

zendi:
So where now is Eterna's high cost of forex as an official DangRef outlet?
With DangRef, Eterna is guaranteed unfailing and unlimited supply of petrol.
And DangRef itself is guaranteed unlimited supply of crude in the age of Trump.

I am not sure of the level of Eterna's exposure to forex. But I now they would be affected by the general high inflation in the economy. Again, they may be importing equipment from abroad, hence exposed to payables in foregn currency so forex losses would also hit their income.

zendi:
The funny thing is that Wale is not even acting as if Oando has money problem. He went to the sideline of World Economic Forum to brag that Oando has one billion barrel s of crude oil underground.
He is looking to buy (I know by International financing) a $15b Refinery in Trinidad. And I'm not hearing a lot of noise about money raising.

I don't know, maybe the man has a secret solution for Oando money problems.

He is trying to put Oando in good light so he can secure good deals when raising funds. If he gives the bad signals, he won't get good deals from creditors and/or investors .

ositadima1:
Sunrisepebble raised a very strong point—read his submission below—but none of the people who posted in Oando's defense cared to address it. I saw a lot of half-baked attempts, with some outright wishful thinking.

Oando gained over 300 billion from forex gains, which is not a constant, and spent over 200 billion on operating costs (excluding COGS), ending with about 60 billion in profit. (I'm quoting from memory, and you can verify my numbers.) His point is very valid: operating costs are high. Imagine if there had been no 300 billion windfall—the result would have been negative.

I expected reasonable defenses, such as an explanation that the high operating costs might be due to merger with NAOC and temporary or other factors. Instead, what I found here was very disappointing.




Let me list the various defenses presented here and highlight how nonsensical some of them are:



This person is busy calculating $50 per barrel but has completely ignored the costs and financing involved in lifting the barrels—totally childish.



This person is comparing two companies with different ordinary share structures, which is worse than wishful thinking. This is the same self acclaimed in-house prefect who is quick to call out derailers yet falls short themselves.



Another one failed to address the elephant in the room—what is the point of increasing revenue if costs are rising even faster?

At the very least, I expected someone to propose a partial solution to this concerning issue or simply deny that the problem exists.

My dear, my reference to $50 per barrel and 50% recoverability of the 1billion crude reserves is only to put a very conservative value on Oando in the worst case scenario of outright liquidation and acquisition by another company.
We all know crude oil is about $70 per barrel currently but I used only $50.
If you disagree, you can do so with your superior facts or calculations.

But why say such opinion is childish? Na wa ooo for you people wey go school oooo!

You even say some opinions of colleagues on the Oando issue are nonsensical?
Hmmmm!

zendi:
If you're selling a product that has unlimited demand and unlimited supply (petrol), then you will make unlimited money unless you have a rougue on the Cowboy Desk.

Lol.
Remember, Eterna is downstream, sells and buys mostly in naira.
Oando is upstream, so it can be more affected by forex and crude price fluctuations
The high cost of forex, materials, inputs and labour costs is making many companies to incur losses (but Oando has a perculiar problem for about 10 yeard now)

Emir01:
If you like hate both, it's your right. Hate don't win an election. Will Tinubu win 2027 election? The answer is YES. Sycophants, hypocrites and ethnic bias voters will solidify the vote come 2027, we respect them alot. Buy Dangote Sugar, OANDO and, MTNN guys.

I don't give a damn who won 2023 or who wins or does not win 2027, 2031, 2035, 2050, 2080 etc. forsaken elections!.
My sense of reasoning is not limited or tied to who wins elections only! Anybody can win the elections.
Who does good for the masses is my concern, not who the masses would call a TPain because of suffering in the land!
You should be free to ignore posts about TPain, if you truly believe that he is doing well. Is that difficult for you?

kpompey:
A team that conceeded 3 straight goals at home is blaming a man who came in and scored for missing a penalty. Stupid coach

Rather, blame the player who went to kick the penalty when he is not the chosen penalty specialist in the team. Each team has the players that are selected for taking penalties. Lookman is not among the players, but he wanted to score 2 goals and be the hero of the night but it backfired.
Once it backfires, you must be ready for the lashing so he would learn and not repeat it again.

emmaodet:
I think the current price seems reasonable at P/E of 12. Pumping it up won't be really attractive because investors will compare the PE to Aradel and other companies in the same sector

If you ask me, I think they should go for some deferred equity or convertible loan stock with few years of moratorium or concessions in interest payments, so that the company can use the period to fully recover

It is still a surprise to me though that Oando has not made further announcements on raising funds via equity

SonofElElyonRet:
A disclaimer provocatively worded

You want me to be ''shakened'' again today?
The matter go concern me ooo?

Anyway, thanks for your concerns. I appreciate

emmaodet:
To raise 1.4 trillion, that will be additional 23b shares at #60/share to give a total outstanding shares of 36b, dropping the price to #20 per share from #60.
Finance cost will drop by half from 232b to166b using FY24 as example while PAT will rise to 232b.
New eps will be #6.4 per share for a #20 per share stock which looks undervalued.
That will be a P/E of roughly 3.
Current P/E is around 12, using that, the new price will rise from #20 to #77.
This is aside expected growth in coming years

Lol
If they want to raise normal equity, they would pump the share price on NGX to a much higher value.
They may also raise deferred equity which usually comes with low interest rates.
We do not know if the share redistribution would also involve cancellation of some inter-co payables as well, as suggested in one of their publications

crownprince2017:
I sincerely don't think you need the last paragraphs to express your opinions, it's unethical.

It is called a disclaimer; nothing unethical.

zendi:
Sorry, Mikeapollo, it's Tinubu Govt. you badmouth, not the Tinubu name.

All please note the correction.

Yeah, noted

zendi:
Your own is director-dealing.

You should be cheering the Tinubu name on this forum and not disparaging it as you often do.

And I'm an Igbo man.

No, I am not like that. Wale, Oando and Bola are 3 separate entities to me.
I can be friends with my stocks in Wale's company (not necessarily Wale as a person) because I can sell off and make some good money, and disagree vehemently with Bola if his actions and policies affect my interests negatively. I cannot dislike or like both blindly just because they have a common family surname.
One is a private businessman, the other one is a politician that is being fed and catered for by our collective resources and taxes, so we have the right to express our opinion on how he governs.
After all, even twins can have different opinions and disagree among themselves e.g. P Square
I used to support and defend Bola against OBJ, until he became president and unleashed untold pain on the masses.
If a nation of 200m people is calling somebody TPain, then you know something dey there!

NB:
For the sycophants and hypocrites that support blindly based on party and ethnic biases, I did not mention the name you worship so much, so don't come direct your verbal diarrhea at me.!

ProphetUtuocha:

A ''Prophet'' is to speak! We are all ears.
Say something!
This your smile get as e be!

zendi:
Wale no do anybody.

Wale is running Oando with his God-given sense and you should be running your pfolio with yours.
I forfeited tranche 1 and sold off my Oando on 6th Feb at 71.50.
This was to dodge the stampede out of Oando that I knew would ensue after qualification date.

When tranche 2 comes we shall know how to play that one.

Good, clever move.
I did not sell, but waited to benefit from tranche 1 because I will be getting close to a million shares from the redistribution!

Raider76:
But seriously, if the share redistribution can easily be changed to cash "dividend", then can we say that the possibility of its being canceled all together cannot be ruled out? I think we should just take things as they come. Three years is a long time.

How would you expect Oando, a cash starved company that needs cash badly, to now declare cash dividend to shareholders in lieu of free shares that had been relinquished to the company and lying idle?
The share redistribution cannot be cancelled because it has been approved at AGM and sanctioned by the SEC., hence it is legally binding on Oando to oblige.
Truth is, this serves as a form of ''bonus'' or reward to loyal shareholders, and also relieves Oando of the pressure to pay cash dividend over the next 2 years when the company is in huge debt and needs all the cash for its operations.

Sunrisepebble:
I laugh at the bolded, "some"? Have you seen the level of borrowing on the balance sheet? Its not just some they need o
The debt load was about 2.76 trillion and finance cost was N232 billion last year. If they want to reduce their debt by 50% they'd need to raise 1.4 trillion

Lol! I know they need huge equity injection. But who knows, they may have other plans
You can imagine the kind of profits that Oando would declare if the current huge Finance costs are reduced to barest minimum, all things being equal!

thebargainhunte:
when the redistributed shares start to show, you might get it at sub #50 or below.

That is true ooo, but anything around N50 will be mopped up immediately!

thebargainhunte:
I have no news about the company. I am ordinary investor hoping for a turn around in that company. I think he wants to mop up the shares at a cheaper rate without considering that the company has not paid dividends for the past 10 years.

We should just hope for good results for Q1 2025, otherwise, the price could hit below N50.

Makanjuola89:
oando is carrying me to where I no know o. wahala wa o

Why are you worried or in a hurry?
Your handle says it all ''Ma kanju ola'! Dont be in a worry or hurry for wealth/riches.
Leave Wale and his tricks to God

Sunrisepebble:
My opinion on this company changes on the daily. Note I own Oando but purely for speculative purposes.
The financials are really not good at all. It is a serious loss making business. The FY profit is largely due to the huge FX gain in Q1 and tax credits in the subsequent quarters. Finance costs are wiping away all the operating income. The business could easily make a loss in this Q1

Yes, what you said is largely true.
They just need to raise some equity funds to eliminate or significantly reduce the finance costs.

The main factor attracting investors is the quantum of Oando's crude oil reserves, over 1 billion barrels.
Even at 50% recoverability and conservative estimates of USD50 per barrel and N1500/$, that should give N37.5 trillion naira which is in far excess of their liabilities and operating costs over the foreseeable future.
Hence, in the worst-case scenario, even if Oando should go under today and is to be acquired by another company today, the value per share cannot be less than N1000!

But I am not sure if oil companies are allowed to revalue their reserves and recognize the revised values in their books

thebargainhunte:
Wale really wants to punish some people. Una go chop share redistribution at sub #40

Any news or hints about Wale or Oando?
I thought people appreciated Wale's gesture of redistributing the shares to all shareholders. Another tranche is due on Jun 30th.

megawealth01:
All-Share drops 0.04% amid decline in FUGAZ stocks; ELLAHLAKES dominates trading volume 


https://nairametrics.com/2025/02/20/all-share-drops-0-04-amid-decline-in-fugaz-stocks-ellahlakes-dominates-trading-volume/

@Mega, please what stocks should we watch out or go for?
All your picks and recommendations have delivered excellently.

SonofElElyonRet:
But your grammar shake o

Lol.
You dey look for my trouble ooo, even though the matter no concern me ooo

freeman67:
Yep, the funniest thing is that. It the only asset backed CP I have done so far.

It's actually just MPR that drove up the rates like TB and co but with what I see rates are about to start slowing down.

The CBN has maintained the MPR at 27.5%.
TB interest rates will rise again to around 20-22% very soon.

KarlTom:
ARADEL. -2.72%
CONOIL. ±
ETERNA. ±
OandO. -1.51%

You will surely be rewarded for this effort.
Oando, especially, must pay guys anyhow anyhow because guys have sacrificed and waited long enough!

ositadima1:
I want the governorship or nothing—LOL.

But on a serious note, Russia sees NATO building bases in Ukraine, right at its border, as a national security threat. You may not fully understand these matters, but strong nations take them very seriously. The U.S. would have done the same. You don’t allow your perceived enemies to set up camp right next to you.

The U.S. tends to use other tactics—regime change, sanctions, and inciting internal conflicts—to weaken a country. Russia, on the other hand, chose to go straight to war.

I understand what is going on. It is a continuation of the bi-polar cold war between the West (Europe, especially US) and Russia.
What Russia could have done is to find a way to use commando style to take over and occupy positions in some strategic locations in or around Ukraine which would then trigger some international tension and negotiations, but without necessarily waging this kind of senseless war killing innocent people. He could have done that and let's see if Ukraine would be the one to fire the first shots at the Russian troops.
Saddam Hussein did a similar thing when he occupied Kuwait in 1990, but he did not wage war killing the Kuwaitis and had to be driven out by US and the Allied Forces

ositadima1:
I made it clear in an earlier post—true freedom does not exist. I can live freely in Lagos, buy land, establish a business, and even marry a beautiful Lagos Babe (if she gree). But as an Anambra man, can I truly aspire to a leadership position in Lagos?

Before you answer, remember that Nigeria is one country, and we all have equal rights regardless of where we live.

You and I know that Nigeria is an aberration!
But even at that, as an Anambra man, you can still occupy a leadership position in Lagos. We have had people from the south-east appointed as Commissioners in Lagos in recent times (a Commissioner is leadership position)
But even if that is not the case, two wrongs do not make one right.
We should condemn what is wrong or bad, and use the best practice as the benchmark or desirable standard.
The moment we choose and adopt the wrong or bad thing as the desirable standard practice, we are all doomed and finished!

ositadima1:
I am trying to engage with you respectfully, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult. Did you follow how it all started, or were you asleep? Before Russia attacked Ukraine, there were months of deliberations between the two countries—it didn’t just happen overnight. Russia made it clear that Ukraine, a former USSR state, joining NATO was a red line. Please take the time to read up on it.

Great and Interesting!
Russia saying or demanding something does not make such demand right, factual or reasonable by default!
What then is the value of independence and sovereignty of a nation?
Just my 2 cents. Peace

ositadima1:
You are quoting the same propaganda that the U.S. and Western countries have been spreading. In fact, it was the U.S. that underestimated Russia. At the beginning of the war, the U.S. never expected it to last this long. Their goal was to quickly sideline Russia by imposing a barrage of sanctions and pressuring its allies—about 80% of the world—to stop buying Russian oil and gas, all while arming Ukraine.

I remember the media claiming that the war would only last a few months. As always, complex plans rarely unfold as initially expected. Now, the U.S. (by which I mean the elites) has shifted its policies. They made a complete turnaround, which is one of the reasons Trump was elected, and the Biden administration had to go.

Just to be clear, they don’t elect their leaders the way we do in Nigeria—there is always a strategic plan in place. Trump is merely playing a role that aligns with the interests of the elites.

It is a fact that it was Russia (Putin) that attacked Ukraine. Would you expect US and Europe to fold their hands and watch? Of course they had to do something to deter or check Putin and sanctions were the first line of action, followed by military support to Ukraine.
Put yourself in the shoes of Ukraine. Would you fold your hands and allow anybody to bully you and your people just because he believes he is stronger or richer than you?
A Yoruba proverb says that whatever you cannot accept as a rich man, you should learn the courage to start rejecting it even when you are a poor man.
If we accept what Putin did to Ukraine, then we should be willing to accept all forms of racial supremacists, discrimination, injustice, terror attacks etc. going on around the world. It would mean we have accepted that ''Might is Right''!

ositadima1:
You have no idea what is going on. The only reason Ukraine has lasted this long is because of U.S. backing. It is the U.S. that has been supplying them with weapons, sanctioning Russia, and spreading anti-Russian propaganda through the media. The U.S. was practically doing everything for Ukraine.

Now that U.S. policy has changed, the war is over. It was the U.S. that pushed them into fighting in the first place. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia—just compare the size and resources of both countries.

As I said, very soon, most of the sanctions imposed by the U.S. will be lifted, and Russia will once again be allowed to flood the market with oil. Let’s watch as things unfold.

Good commentary.
But also don't forget that Trump will not have it easy with his Republicans and Americans in general if he decides to side with Putin in this war. It is either there is an end to the war, or US will still do something to curtail the power and raging madness of Putin. US cannot afford to allow Russia to win the war as it would be a devastating blow to US and Europe combined.
If the war ends today, no side can claim ''victory''. Ukraine might have lost some territory but Russia's (and Putin's) invincibility would have suffered a severe and devastating blow because he started the war thinking it was going to be a walk in the park. The joke and humiliation would be on Putin.
As regards price of crude, I don't foresee any immediate effect on the price of crude because there is still a lot of uncertainty in the horizon. If anything at all, the war in the Israel-Lebanon-Iran axis would have to come to a definite end before there could be any sustainable, significant reduction in oil prices.

Mpeace:
Rates on Tbills have started falling oh. See result of today's auction. This is good for NSE.

This is how a dubious govt and it's agencies shortchange it's people and investors.
They rebased inflation in order to project an artificial low rate, and that is what they are using to manipulate TB rates now.

SonofElElyonRet:
Oando is for only those who can endure mental stress and anxiety

Lol
Make Oando no make people go mad in their offices ooo!