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Mikeapollo's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 9:23am On Feb 04, 2025
zendi:
Oando wahallah !

Mikeapollo is asking Bawa to decode 'Huge'. grin

SAK is begging Mkeapollo to expatiate. grin
grin grin grin grin
I comment my reserve on Oando!
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 5:34pm On Feb 03, 2025
Bagwa:
You will soon here from Wale ASAP

Huge is coming Feb , June 😃
Can you help with tips?
How huge and in which form or direction?
Education › Re: Can I Study Abroad With Second Class Lower by mikeapollo: 3:43pm On Feb 03, 2025
florianwirtz:
I need to know if there's any hope of studying abroad with a second class lower qualifications. My parents intend to send me abroad to further my studies but I'm worried now because of my qualification. They don't know yet and I still don't know how to inform them.

I just want to know if there's any hope

Editor: File photo used for illustration
Yes, it is very possible. Most schools abroad, especially in Europe, accept 2:2 for postgraduate admissions
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 3:12pm On Feb 03, 2025
WondaBeauty:
Okay, thanks
You can conduct online checks and also visit the offices of the brokers to assess how credible, efficient, reliable and organized they are etc.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 2:56pm On Feb 03, 2025
WondaBeauty:
Okay i will check it out. Please how do I register with a licensed broker especially here in Nigeria?

How do I locate one?
Visit the website of the SEC https://sec.gov.ng and see/search for list of registered/approved securities brokers
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 2:26pm On Feb 03, 2025
zendi:
Oando Q1 Result will be thunder, deducing from Wale's statement.

"Despite a challenging operating environment, we achieved a 45% increase in revenue to ₦4.1 trillion, reflecting the strength of our
business model, and a 9% rise in profit after tax to ₦65.5 billion, notwithstanding the costs associated with the onboarding of NAOC." The cost of integrating NAOC depressed profit.

https://www.oandoplc.com/press-release/oando-plc-announces-fy-2024-unaudited-results-posts-45-growth-in-revenue-and-n65-5-billion-profit-after-tax
Finance costs may still wipe off a lot of the profits.
Oando still needs to raise equity capital (or find whatever means) to pay off significant chunk of the toxic debts before its profits can have some breathing space
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 2:16pm On Feb 03, 2025
crownprince2017:
Where is Bovali, it's been a long time.
Bovali, I don't miss your analysis ooooo, what are you seeing in sugar, I'm not talking about the stock price but the fundamentals surrounding the business...it's been long we see mankind too, I hope all is well..
@Bovali still resting and having a ball, I guess. grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 2:12pm On Feb 03, 2025
toyeoye:
This feature is not available via the NGX API. It's also only available to market distributors and will need more time to execute seamlessly. I'd keep this in the to do list.
Wow. thanks so much.
More grease to your elbow and endless success
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 11:36am On Feb 03, 2025
toyeoye:
Here we go!!
Stay updated: http://stockbubbles.com.ng
Thanks a lot for this website; really helpful.
But I think it would be super excellent if you can add columns to indicate ''offers'' and ''bids'' for each stocks.
Politics › Re: Dangote Refinery Reduces Price Of Petrol by mikeapollo: 7:20am On Feb 02, 2025
sammyj:
This situation is revealing. Dangote is strategically positioning himself to expose the NNPCL, effectively setting the price while the supposed regulator follows instead of leading. This highlights a major failure on the part of both the government and the NNPCL. What a shame!!
Exactly. God bless you.
The NNPC is just following the useless policy of the Tinubu govt which wants to extort Nigerians and declare huge exorbitant profits at end of the year instead of selling the product at some subsidized price and declaring some decent profit
Politics › Re: Tinubu Will Win Second Term In 2027 — Joe Igbokwe by mikeapollo: 7:11am On Feb 02, 2025
adenigga:
Source: https://dailypost.ng/Tinubu-will-win-second-term-in-2027-Joe-Igbokwe
Foolish talk!
Are you God ? How do you even know Tinubu would live to see 2027?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 12:59pm On Jan 31, 2025
robobo:
i beg Oga Mike, make u no injure meeee oooooo

so make people wey no get good health no buy oando abiiiiiiiiii

lolllllllllllllllllllllllll
Lol! grin grin grin
I didn't mean it in that context
I pray that God grants all of us good health. Without a good healthy life, none of our investments is safe.
I pray none of us will experience any health or other emergency that could push or compel us to sell off our stocks prematurely to incur losses.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 12:36pm On Jan 31, 2025
megawealth01:
I will now wait for Oando at bargain price to mop up what I can afford to lose just as a topup on the little I have been holding since last year...

Wale na man you bi grin
You will not lose anything if you buy Oando at your bargain price and qualify for the share redistribution.
The prospects are bright but one has to be patient for the long wait and in good health, God willing.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 11:16am On Jan 31, 2025
GeeKudi:
That's expected.

Hopefully, there would be a cooperate action on the share redistribution soon.
Yes, it could be a deliberate decision to first release the ''negative'' or ''not-too-good'' news (which will cause a decline in share price), and later release the ''positive'' news (which could cause price to rise again), instead of doing it the other way round.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo:
designking:
Oando Q4 2024 Financial Performance: A Year of Growth Amidst Challenges


Oando has released its unaudited financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024, showing a mixed performance driven by substantial revenue growth but impacted by rising costs and increased finance expenses. Despite the challenges, the company’s revenue surge and its strategic business moves provide a fascinating glimpse into its resilience and future potential.

Oando’s total revenue for 2024 soared to N4.12 trillion, up from N2.85 trillion in 2023, representing an impressive 45% increase. This remarkable growth was primarily fueled by a significant rise in sales volumes, which climbed to N3.84 trillion from N2.76 trillion. The growth in sales volumes points to increased demand for Oando's products and services, highlighting the company's ability to tap into a growing market amidst tough economic conditions. The increase in revenue is a strong indicator of the company’s operational strength and the effectiveness of its sales strategies.

A key highlight of Oando’s 2024 performance was its substantial improvement in gross profit, which surged from N85 billion in 2023 to N282.5 billion. This nearly threefold increase emphasises the company's ability to manage its production and operational costs efficiently, despite the inflationary pressures and rising global prices affecting the oil and gas sector. The growth in gross profit demonstrates Oando’s strong operational management and its capacity to retain a solid portion of its earnings amid higher expenses.

While Oando experienced growth in core business revenues, its other income—earned from non-core business activities—saw a decline, dropping from N399.9 billion in 2023 to N349.7 billion in 2024. Although the company earned less from non-core activities, this decline was somewhat offset by its robust performance in its main operations.

However, the company’s operating income, a measure of its core business profitability, saw a marginal increase to N220.2 billion from N218.3 billion. This rise can be attributed to higher revenues, though it also reflects the company’s increased expenditures. Operating expenses climbed in 2024, driven by inflation, expansion efforts, and rising administrative costs, including higher salaries and office-related expenses.

In 2024, Oando's finance costs ballooned to N173.6 billion, up from N116.4 billion in the previous year. This surge was largely due to higher interest payments on debt, a reflection of the company’s financing strategies and the global interest rate environment. On the other hand, Oando also experienced a positive rise in finance income, which grew from N16.8 billion in 2023 to N58.4 billion in 2024. While this helped offset some of the rising finance costs, it wasn’t enough to shield the company from the overall financial pressures.

Despite the revenue growth, Oando’s profit before tax (PBT) dropped significantly in 2024, falling to N47.7 billion from N102.9 billion in 2023. This decline in pre-tax profits indicates that the increase in revenue could not fully offset the rising operational and finance costs. The company's bottom line was further impacted by a larger loss for the period, which grew to N232 billion compared to a loss of N133 billion in 2023. This stark loss highlights that, despite strong revenue generation, the company faced substantial challenges in managing costs and financial pressures, leading to a negative net income.

One of the more consistent aspects of Oando’s performance was its earnings per share (EPS), which remained steady at N5 per share, identical to the previous year. This consistency in EPS indicates that the company’s basic profitability did not fluctuate dramatically, despite the overall loss. As of the end of January 30 2025, Oando’s market price stood at N76.00 per share, with an earnings yield of 6.68%. This reflects the market’s valuation of the company based on its current performance and potential future growth.

Recommendations: Hold or Sell?

Oando’s 2024 financials present a complex picture for investors. On one hand, the company saw impressive revenue growth and a notable increase in gross profit, suggesting strong operational capacity and market positioning. However, the significant increase in costs, particularly in finance charges and operating expenses, weighed heavily on its profitability. The higher-than-expected loss and the drop in profit before tax raise concerns about the company’s ability to manage its costs effectively in a challenging economic environment.

For investors, the recommendation would be to "HOLD" unless there is a clear strategy for improving cost management and enhancing operational efficiency. While the company has demonstrated resilience in driving revenue growth, the rising operational and finance costs remain a significant concern. Moreover, the larger loss for the period could have negative implications for shareholder returns in the short term. However, for those with a long-term investment horizon, Oando’s strong revenue growth, coupled with its market presence, may offer promising upside once the company addresses its cost structure and financial leverage.

While Oando has shown growth in key financial metrics, the challenges of rising costs, finance expenses, and overall financial losses signal that investors should be cautious and consider holding their positions until clearer signs of improved cost management and profitability emerge.
Oando needs to raise equity capital to pay off some of the toxic debts to minimize finance costs; and also work to reduce/contain the huge administrative expenses, which I suspect may be partly related to additional overheads and employee costs associated with the acquisition of NAOC. The new Angola bloc may help improve margins if they could deploy some existing employees there and reap the benefits of economies of scale.
Otherwise, they may have to downsize if things continue this way.

The gross margin for Q4 2024 rose to 9.45% from paltry 3%-4 % in prior years. This improvement could be attributable to the newly acquired NAOC E&P assets, though the margin is still a far cry from industry average (Seplat 50%; Aradel 55%)
The E&P segment usually delivers the highest gross margins in the industry; Oando should improve on that.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 9:47am On Jan 31, 2025
chimex38:
Good Observation..
But on further checks according to the line item, it's more likely a tax-credit rather than a tax-expense, hence not bracketed and rightly added.

In the same line item, they got a tax credit from their exploration activity of ₦27.99bn and it was added. That's the source of the observation you rightly highlighted.

I could also be wrong.
Cc: Youngzedd
I guess it is a typo
The N17b was actually disclosed as income tax credit in the Q3 2024 results.

But Oando will have to raise equity capital and do some serious cost reduction / restructuring exercise in order to stop the bleeding arising from Administrative expenses and Finance cost.
Otherwise, the company will keep struggling to make profits. That is the truth.
How soon they are able to do that will determine how far the share price can go.
For now, I won't be surprised to see the price falling to below N40.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 12:50am On Jan 31, 2025
Sunrisepebble:
What about this “Corporate”, this seems to be dragging down the performance of the company
Yes. And that is another big thing dragging the performance of the company
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo:
Sunrisepebble:
There's a lot of things I dont understand about the business.
Maybe someone can explain how they're doing revenue of N4trn producing about 25kboepd (as at H1), of which some are pledged as collateral vs Seplat (producing ~50kboepd) doing N1trn. No breakdown of the ginormous cost of sales of N3.8trn
They do a lot of trading i. e. buying and selling of crude.
The cost of sale is high because of cost of purchases of crude , which produces a small margin when sold.
Oando actually improved their gross margin in Q4 but the high finance cost of N73b and admin expenses of N86b really affected the bottom line. Once they are able to raise equity capital and settle their biggest loans, the profit will rise higher.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 9:24pm On Jan 30, 2025
Sunrisepebble:
Q4 standalone
But you know that we all are interested and expecting the actual final result for the year FY2024
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 9:15pm On Jan 30, 2025
Sunrisepebble:
Oando is out. A loss in Q4 huh
Is that the final result for the year?

Oando actually made a profit of N65b for full year FY2024
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 9:07pm On Jan 30, 2025
Sunrisepebble:
Oando is out. A loss in Q4 huh
Lol! grin
Oando is like a big river or ocean. If you are not a good swimmer do not dive in.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 11:44am On Jan 30, 2025
designking:
It seems the update from Oando insiders is filtering in and the market is gradually responding positively.
Lol grin
Just relax.
Anyhow anyhow, the outcome will be made public soon.
Politics › Re: Court Strikes Out Afe Babalola's defamation Suit Against Farotimi by mikeapollo: 4:10pm On Jan 29, 2025
PresidObi:
I thought he had withdrawn the case against Dele earlier?
Dont mind the reckless twist of the headline.

He withdrew the case, hence the court decided to strike it out. But they deliberately and sensationally omitted to mention the withdrawal
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo:
olaremint:
If u like' go and be buying oando. The more you look the less you see shares
Lol. grin
Many had fully loaded long ago and waiting for the right time/price to offload some for good profits.
The choice of stocks that one may buy depends on several factors; so what may work for A may not necessarily work for B; and vice versa.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 10:41am On Jan 29, 2025
It has been quite a while since I read or heard anything from @Godlyguy.
His advice and cautions about Oando can be useful sometimes.
I miss him.

Be wise!
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 8:28pm On Jan 28, 2025
Raider76:
The way the AGM resolution was drafted makes the effective date to be determined by the Board. It is very conceivably that the Board may even choose to stick with the AGM approval date. They may also choose a date in the future depending on the their readiness status. So there is a risk to consider when deciding whether to buy now or not.
You are right.
But from the first paragraph of the Notice, it is more likely the Board will fix a future date as the qualifying date.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo:
designking:
Will new Oando shares bought tomorrow benefit from the share redistribution or cash?

When is the closing date to qualify for the bonus?
The qualifyng date has not been fixed, so you can buy tomorrow and benefit.
But make sure you buy before or latest the board meeting date of 30 January, to be very sure.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 1:40pm On Jan 28, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Vitafoam, Berger paint, CAP plc, Neimeth and other numerous companies were foreign owned now owned by Nigerians through Management Buy Out, yet the former owners are technical partners.
Those were the ones that did not leave the country when Murtala/Obasanjo did the compulsory indigenization.
Even with time, some of them sold their majority or controlling interests to Nigerians.
May & Baker is another example.
Having a core investor is not a bad thing; it is how the company is managed that matters.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 1:26pm On Jan 28, 2025
Harvestock01:
The concept of a core investor is not a bad idea if done within a proper regulatory framework.

A core investor can be limited to 25% share ownership with a ceiling of say 40%.


Democratising share ownership is a no brainer because you can not force unwilling people to become shareholders. Even if you are able to do that, you can still not force them to not sell the shares eventually which will defeat the objective of democratisation.

For example, if you decide to democratise wealth by sharing money to everyone, how long do you think it will take before the money return to the wealthy🤔
Absolutely!
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 1:19pm On Jan 28, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Not based on technical or financial capacity. How the core investors embarked on asset stripping in order to service the loan used in buying the shares.

The foreign founders of the companies could have been retained as technical partners
The foreign founders had already lost control in the 1970s during Murtala/Obasanjo's indigenization programme. That was when British Petroleum (BP) was forcefully taken over by FGN and changed to African Petroleum (AP).
By the time El-Rufai's BPE was doing the privatization programme in the 2000s, most of the foreign owners had long left and the companies were mostly owned 100% by FGN.
The FGN then requested for bids and the winners (based on financial, technical or whatever criteria) were those who acquired controlling interests (50%+). These were called core investors. Later, the FGN sold its shares in the companies to the Nigeria public. That is how most of the FGN companies became privatized and listed on the NGX.

Some other ones went totally bad.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 1:04pm On Jan 28, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
You can't be talking of democratization of ownership as per Nahco and some other companies, but when it was time to privatize National Oil, Unipetrol and Africa Petrol, you introduced the concept of core investor.


Adenuga was the core investor of National Oil, Wale and his goons for Unipetrol and Sadiq brothers for Africa Petroleum. People believed Sadiq was the front used by Atiku.

Atiku was the chairman of BPE
Don't you think the term ''core investor'' was only used to describe the investor that won the bid to buy the companies (based on technical and financial capacity) and was buying controlling stake (50%+) of the shares value?
At the end of the day, FGN later sold its own shares to the public
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 12:46pm On Jan 28, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
It was the same El Rufai who introduced me concept of core investors for the privatized companies.

That was why Wale and his goons became the buyers of FGN shares in Unipetrol now called Oando.

The government of Babangida did a better job with the democratization of the privatization program through TCPC
Do you have any perspective about whether the attempt to democratize the shares was made public?

I think so many people (investors) bought shares and acquired different FGN companies, some of which are doing good or have gone bad, from then and up till now.

It seems Wale and Oando is your main issue grin

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