kevclin:

APC has the best candidate to win Taraba State. A fresh primary would be conducted to select a candidate which was the earlier judgement of the Federal High Court as upheld by the Supreme Court today. LP candidate can't even win his polling unit in Taraba though LP have high chance of winning the Presidential election in Taraba State. If Governorship election is only b/w LP & PDP, PDP will win by a landslide.

Our concern is Presidential elections Bros.

Even the PDP Gov is not really enthusiastic about Atiku.

LP will now likely win Taraba. It will almost certainly get 25% in that state

HIGHESTPOPORI:
LP would win Taraba

Yes

garfield1:


Scroll up.for this particular poll,they said they went to major towns. What is major towns son?

Garfield my fwend, i really do not have the time for a meaningless "argument".

If after reading that document(including the part i clearly snapped for you) and you believe what you believe, then no problem o.

Your "reality". And thats fine by me

garfield1:


It is not true.they said major towns and major towns are obviously cities.they said one lga per state. they also interviewed 3000 people which means average of 70 per state which is not enough.

Nextier didnt cover everywhere.the best still remains anap noi....as far as obi is failing in nw/ne/sw,he cannot win.he won't make 25% spread and best case scenario is a runoff with tinubu

Na wa o

Some of una like to dey argue sha, just for argument sake.

But the info is on the linked document in the OP na.

garfield1:


In their page,they said they went to the major towns in 36 states and one lgas.are rural areas major towns? Anybody going to rivers will likely go to where first? Apply commonsense please

They went to different LGAs in a state. Van tou go and read their methodology again.

By the way, Nextier conducted their own polling specifically in rural areas about 2 months ago, and the result was still the same: Obi led the field.

Make una just dey play

Johnnyessence:
APC is completely dead and buried in Taraba state . Congratulations to the incoming President Atiku Abubakar in advance

Which kind yeye Vice President be that?

Obi is winning Taraba

garfield1:


Can't you see from the background

Background of what?

Cos they specifically said they went to various LGs during the course of the polling. Except you know of why Rivers was different

Emir01:


Ondo? Just dey play even d defectors will collect LP money and work for APC in presidential election.

There are actually lots of Ondo residents/indigenes that support Obi.

Apart from Lagos(which Obi may likely win slightly), he may get his next highest vote from Ondo.

Obi has really penetrated Yorubas. This is the main reason APC guys became afraid of Obi.

Tinubu may still the SW but there will be no block votes for him.

garfield1:


This was conducted in ph not in the villages

Where did you get this info??

BluntTheApostle:



OK.


I rest my case.

Thanks

BluntTheApostle:



Show me where they stated that they used random sampling.


A screenshot, please.



And I will rest my case.

Ok.

Here:

https://bantupage.com/bantupage-polling-methodology/

BluntTheApostle:



So, you read the bantupage, and you still kept arguing that randomization was used?



You did not read the methodology where it stated that they went to LGs interviewing respondents? Does that look like randomization to you?


Go and read about non-probability sampling. And then you will understand why you can't generalize results from these polls to the population of interest.


Until February 25, you are allowed to masturbate to these useless polls.

Lolz.... they clearly stated that they used ramdom sampling(that was even also weighted) to get their sample size for the respondents to the poll.

Random sampling does not depend on the method used to administerbor get the info from the respondents of a poll. Whether it is by a written questionnaire or through a telephone or through a face to face interview(as in this case) etc, the method does not negate or deflate the sampling of the poll if it is random ab initio.

Do i really need to explain all these to you

garfield1:


The resources at jagaban is too enormous.by next week,that gap will be closed.the ss wi be here obi loss will start

Ok...lets see whether the resources of Tinubu would be greater than the Determination of Nigerians later this month.

February is here already

BluntTheApostle:



OK, give me the methodology of one of these so-called scientific polls.


I shall wait patiently.

Please click the link to the page of bantupage at OP and you can see the methodology.

You can also do same for NOI/ANAP and others.

garfield1:


Please,let's leave irrelevant talks.obi's highest votes will come from se and their turnout is always low even when mighty ojukwu contested.other tribes too have thousands of voters outside their region so it even itself out.that cliché is stale

Your comment here is anecdoctal and emotional and i choose not to futher debate it

garfield1:


Do not deceive yourself.most undecided outside se/ss will not vote obi afterall Lp is not the only opposition party.the only thing that can help obi is if he can ramp up campaigning in ne/nw, try to increase his chances in ss and nc.he needs to spend more,sponsor more independent mobilizers to penetrate the hinterland...if se ss had the voting strength of the north,we would then conclude that obi is the likely winner..
Unfortunately, tinubu is increasing campaign tempo and mobilization in nc,ss

But LP is actually the opposition party in this election. Do you know how effective the APCPDP narrative have been in this campaign. People dont see PDP as the alternative to APC or vice versa, the narrative is that you should vote LP if you dont want to vote APCPDP.

And you are right, just like i said previously, most "undecides" and "undisclosed" usually vote for the OPPOSITION in elections.

garfield1:


That is what I am saying.becsuse se votes is small,they can have a higher turnout percentage than sw but sw will still record more votes.sw has 18 mil voters,se has 10 mil so you see,you obi has a problem.
In 2015,se votes was 2.6 mil while sw was 4.5.from my calculation,se votes will not exceed 3 million while sw will record at least 5 mil

Yea, but you guys forget something very important: there are actually more SE voters outside the zone than there are voters from other zones outside their zones.

If Igbos choose to vote in this elections, a lot of you will understand why they are not just one of the 3 major ethnic groups in Nigeria but are arguably the most dispersed ethnic group in Nigeria. Once Igbos come out to vote, some of you will realise how very powerful they are in Nigeria

garfield1:


Obi's lead is reducing.it was over 10% in sept Oct.by election eve,it will further reduce.
The undecided voters are mainly in nw/ne/sw and won't go for obi obviously.se ss has the fewest numbers of undecided and undisclosed.obi is leading in se/ss which usually records low turnout and has a small voting population.ipob activities will further reduce it.
I think anap polls will be significant.buhari led pdp by over 10%.

You are right that Obi's lead is reducing and we are seeing that from some other polls too. But that is to be expected as poll numbers usually close up towards the elections.

But my point here is that Obi, who should clearly be the underdog in the race, have been consistently leading the pack since the beginning of the polling. That is absolutely incredible and something that should tell the legacy parties a good lesson if they are smart.

Moreover, whilst we may not know how the "undecides" will eventually vote or even if they will vote at all, most "undecides" if they vote usually do not vote for the party in power (which is why they may not have made up their minds or refusing to say who they will vote yet).

But like i said previously, they may determine the outcome of the elections if they vote cos their numbers are significant.

We will just wait and see

BluntTheApostle:



Go and read about scientific polling, and then come back and take a comprehensive lesson from me.


No be today I begin dey conduct research.



For the fact that it is impossible to even carry out a simple random sampling on the voting populace, and not any less difficult with systematic, cluster or stratified sampling, creates a sampling bias.

You are just speaking too much grammar but not fooling anyone. And you also do not have any idea about whom you are reaponding to here.

Random Sampling is at the heart of scientific pooling, and it is good that you mentioned it. That is the most important factor that reduces any statistical bias in any polling. And it was used in this particular polling.

But further, if you took a look at the methodology of the polling here, other factors like weighted sampling was also used. It is as scientific as it goes.

Moreover, the results here generally aligns with the results of other scientific polls done by other bodies, including trends seen over time.

There is no reason to doubt the results except a stronger statistical reason is given. And the reason cannot be the "feeling" of a random chap on Nairaland.

garfield1:


3% lead is too small.tinubu will easily overtake obi

Yea, you re right. The margins for this particular polls is small.

But the outcome of this elections(if we are to follow this polling results) would be determined by the significant number of "undecides" and "Non-disclosers" in the actual elections.

These 2 demographics have also consistently been high across all the scientific polls done

PS: That Obi, who basically started this race a s a virtual "independent candidate " and the one with "no structures" is still leading in these polls at this time is very very significant.

BluntTheApostle:



They are all open-access polls, not SCIENTIFIC polls.

Bantu, NOI, Nextier etc are scientific polls.

What are you talking about?

Do you know what scientific polling is??

PeterObi4LP:
There should be several ambulance position in strategic places in case any urchins commit suicide that day.

Well, even tho they are urchinns are mostly useless, we do not want them to commit suicide please.

Ferocious crying (their tears) and heart attack is enough biko

BluntTheApostle:



Obi can't win the election.


This poll probably has a sample size of 2000 people with responses sampled over the phone.



The reality is that the election is between APC and PDP.



If Obi would remain in LP (which is very unlikely, being the desperado that he is), he might get his chance in 2027.


The economy is so messed up that I don't expect much from the winner of the election. By 2026, Nigerians (in their usual ignorance) will be clamouring for change of leader, instead of structure.

ALL the scientific polls (and most of the unscientific polls e.g on youtube) are saying that Obi is in the lead and can win. Repeat: ALL of them are consistent in saying the same thing.

But an inconsequential "commenter" on a faceless forum (NL) is saying Obi cannot win.

February is this month. All these nonsense will stop

Numan, Yola, Mubi

Very smart and strategic move by Obi


For those that knows....

APC and PDP don find find find any and every dirts on Peter Obi but to no avail.

Na useless rumour on "luxury" for Obi house dem come dey discuss, lolz.

Obi na man you be!!

maasoap:


Oga, you can twist as much as you want, 23rd February is here. LP doesn't even stand a chance, not a slightest chance.

Brother, LP is winning the election.

It is visible to the Blind; audible to the deaf. Even the foooolish are already acknowledging it.

maasoap:


I'm an honest person, no own goal scoring.
The amusing part of your comment is the figures you just threw up: "about 70% and >85%", lol.
Why don't you go INEC page and see the number of newly registered. Very negligible! And not all of them are for LP.
And secondly, who assured you that all the people who usually don't vote will vote this time around? And those who will vote, all of them will vote for LP?
The truth! LP is not in the equation, just APC and PDP

But you were the one who said it yoursef, not me. You said that people who usually do not vote, those who dont belong to a political party and the new voters, are for LP. That is 3 categories of people/voters.

You said that in your comment.

I was only pointing out that the average turnout for last elections was around 30%( meaning those that didnt vote but are registered are just under 70%- the vast majority of registered voters). When you add the number of voters who do not belong to any political party like you said(who cannot be less than 85% or even 90% of registered voters) and majority of the newly registered voters (about 9 million), you will agree with me that the majority of voters are actually for LP(according to you).

You see why i said you played an own goal yourself.

But the good thing is that you are right. LP has the majority of prospective voters this time around, which is one of the reasons ALL scientific (and most unscientific) polls conducted so far has placed him as the leading candidate. That is why he is on the lips of everyone, including his opponents.

Once again, you are very correct Bros

Happy Sunday

maasoap:


People who have never voted before and people who didn't belong to political party before, that's LP in my opinion. But go and verify it, the number of new voters is too small to cause any change in status quo.
In addition, people are not crossing over to LP. What we hear everyday is people moving to APC or PDP

I hope you know that people who usually dont vote(about 70%) and people who do not belong to any party(>85%) are the vast majority of voters in Nigeria. Add that to 1st time voters this time around, and you yourself just said that all these 3 categories "are LP".a

You are right o!!!

But i hope you know you just scored an own goal with that you comment sha

Very interesting times

Vinnie2000:
OP

PETER OBI is my Ist and ONLY choice!

Me too

I can never vote for Atiku or Tinubu under any circumstance. I want a complete change of the current system in Nigeria(which is why i am voting Obi and cannot vote those other 2 persons)

I might have voted for Kwankawaso tho if the current 8 yrs President is not also from the north

Well at least the one thing is that i went to the facebook page of this "Islamic scholar" i.e where he posted it, and almost all of the Northern Muslims who commented came down hard on him. Very hard actually. In fact, i didnt see anyone in support of him.

See ehn, this elections will be interesting. People are really tired!

Buddha3:


I swear baba!

In the entire Abuja Municipal Area Council where I live, Peter Obi's Presidential banners are not up to 9. In my Lokogoma district precisely, I've never stumbled on even one. But somehow, Abuja as a City is on stand still, waiting for February 25th just to vote Peter Obi. The funny thing is, it is even the bike men and keke riders that are publicising it most.

I don't know how Obi was able to harness social media to the point his candidacy is now a major threat to the usual big players. But the God that is doing it for Obi, spreading his popularity and grace, must do it for me this year!

Amen

Lolz