₦airaland Forum

Excellent analysis

Nigerian unions may have agreed to suspend strike action and call off protests after the government partially caved into demands for the restoration of the longstanding fuel subsidy. But President Goodluck Jonathan is not out of the woods yet.

One unintended consequence of his ineptly-handled decision to remove the subsidy (before persuading the public that he can deliver improved services and better livelihoods), has been to galvanise Nigerians into taking issue with a far broader range of wasteful government habits.

The most egregious of these are now all over Nigerian websites, black berry messenger groups and twitter feeds together with detailed examination of the 2012 budget. The public is taking issue with everything from the president’s food allowance and government travel budgets to the cost of planting shrubs at the Aso rock presidential villa in Abuja.

Civil society groups are also demanding an account of how the fuel subsidy more than doubled last year to a staggering $8bn, without there being a corresponding increase in petroleum products on the market. They want punitive action taken against those fuel importers and officials found to have fleeced the public purse.

Diezani Alison-Madueke, the petroleum minister, pledged a review on Sunday night. If this is conducted properly it could be very uncomfortable both for her and for Mr Jonathan. It would likely expose closely-associated officials and businesspeople – some of them contributors to the ruling People’s Democratic Party election campaigns last year.

The lifting of the fuel subsidy has caused an eruption of anger because it has forced the price of transport and food up and hit the poor in their pocket. But it has also infuriated the public because of the perception that the very people who abused it last year for their own ends are now forcing the public to pay the cost.

Western economists such as Paul Collier writing in the FT and Jeffrey Sachs in the NYT, who leapt in to defend the economic logic of removing the subsidy seem to have misunderstood the nature of the debate and misread the public mood.

http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2012/01/nigerian-subsidy-crisis-opens-window-of-opportunity/#ixzz1je4H162C

Na wa o.

A former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nasir El-Rufai, was brutalised by soldiers in Abuja, his friend and former cabinet colleague, Femi Fani-Kayode, has said.

Mr. El-Rufai, a former member of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, is now a chieftain of the opposition Congress for Progressive Change.

In the ongoing nationwide protest over the cut in gasoline subsidy, he has become a rallying point for civil society and the opposition.

Mr. Fani-Kayode said on his Facebook page Mr. El-Rufai was attacked by soldiers in the Wuse District of Abuja at a point where Abuja protesters usually converge for their rallies.

He said the officers tried to seize the former minister's telephones as well as other recording devices on him. Other protesters were also brutalised, he say.

Mr. Fani-Kayode said, "My friend and brother Nasir El-Rufai has just been attacked and brutalised by a group of soldiers led by a colonel of the Nigerian Army in Wuse 2, Abuja. They tried to get his phone from him and to grab other recording devices of the Occupy Nigeria Group.

"This happened at the spot that the group usually converge to meet and demonstrate. Many other members of the group were attacked as well and I guess that we are lucky that no-one was killed.

"Welcome to Goodluck's Nigeria."

Mr. El-Rufai could not be reached for comments, and his whereabouts is unknown. His media consultant, Muyiwa Adekeye, said he was in Lagos and was not aware of the attack on his client.

http://premiumtimesng.com/index.php/news/3460-soldiers-brutalise-nasir-el-rufai-in-abuja.html

Katsumoto:
Please go and read your report again; the North never subsidised the West.

Are you saying that resources  (through federal budgets and regional budgets)  were not wired from the northern area to other parts of the country including the West (albeit to a lesser extent),  to run their governments? If so, you can't back that up with historical facts.

@Negro_Ntns" +1000



I say, where was the South-South in 1914? And where was the South-South in 1945, 1960? Where were the eggs being laid and hatched? It is in the record that, it was the farmers in the North that produced the groundnuts and resources that supplemented the various budgets of the West and East up till 1970.

Recently, Adamu Fika put down the figures, year by year in terms of federal budgets and regional budgets and how much resources had to be wired from the northern area to other parts of the country to run their governments. Simply because some new ducks are laying eggs now, the chickens of previous years are no more important. The notion that the area of the country that produces the most resources each time should produce the leadership of the country is very nonsensical.



Reference Thread: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-519780.0.html"

Why has Alhaji Asari-dokubo not been arrested and locked up like the common criminal that he is?  What a weak President we have!! What is JTF doing about this insult?

debosky:
^^

Nigerians are not resigned to anything - we are simply tired of all these 'schemes' which neglect the core issue which IS corruption.

There are dozens of suggestions out there - ranging from phased (yearly) 25% subsidy removal to removal with concurrent massive reduction in government wastage, to mandating oil and gas companies in Nigeria to refine products locally as part of their license to operate. Ideas are not lacking, it is the political willpower to make the necessary changes that is lacking.

I agree with you that there are quite a few good ideas out there. Do you have any opinion on how to obtain this political willpower to make the necessary changes? Are you, like most Nigerians, resigned to the idea that since the said political willpower is non existent, we'll  have to live with corruption as a normal part of Nigerian life?

Lets hope recent protests would have forced the President to develop this will power. We'll find out, in a few days, if we are making progress in this regard.

I'd rather some of you responders, who do not believe that OP's suggestion will work, write one sentence in disagreement with the OP's suggestion, while you proffer your own well thought out solutions or proposals in several sentences and posts.

What I find most disheartening is that many Nigerians are resigned to the idea that corruption will remain with us for ever and cannot be dealt a deadly blow. o ma se o.

Beaf:
What is wrong if some bad boyz have decided to hold protests at the oil rigs? Don't they have the right to peaceful protest?

Every Nigerian has a right to hold peaceful protests. MEND in this case is not helping GEJ but further making the country ungovernable and as such inadvertently working for the very anti-GEJ powers you've been talking about.

Ignorant people need to know that 90% of the crude exported is from offshore and PENGASSAN  can shut those rigs down whenever it chooses.

Lets see how GEJ handles this complexity, Boko Haram, and the Nigerian masses in the next few days. We are watching very important history unfold right before our eyes.

Na wa o

A Nigerian Spring?

Will terrorism and civil unrest be catalysts that send Nigeria the way of Egypt, Libya, or Tunisia?
There is little reason to expect Boko Haram’s activity to bring down the government in Abuja. The sect lacks unified leadership and does not enjoy enough popular support to pose an existential threat to the Nigerian government.

Boko Haram’s regular bank robberies also suggest that they currently lack a steady stream of financing - a necessity for an effective, sustained insurgency. That is not to minimize the threat; Nigeria could fast become a country, like Yemen or Somalia, that is unable to deal with its insurgent elements. Nonetheless, the group’s tactics and radical ideology have alienated large swaths of Nigeria’s population, not only among the Christians and government entities they often target, but among prominent northern Muslims and political elites as well.

But if Boko Haram and its sympathizers represent only a subset of Nigeria’s population, the removal of the fuel subsidy has elicited outrage nationwide. Indeed, the civil unrest sparked by rising fuel prices now poses a substantial and immediate threat to Nigeria’s stability.

Few issues have as much power to unite Nigerians, largely because many view cheap fuel as their sole benefit from the country’s oil wealth, the majority of which is spent on government salaries and patronage politics, instead of infrastructure development and social services. In a country with hundreds of distinct ethnic groups and little sense of national identity, citizens rarely rally around a common cause. The sudden inability to procure fuel for basic needs such as transportation, however, has inspired Nigerians of all stripes to take to the streets en masse.

Protesters do not seek to overthrow the Goodluck Jonathan administration (not yet anyway), but they are aggressively calling for reinstatement of the fuel subsidy. For the time being, Jonathan is unlikely to acquiesce. He still enjoys the full support of Nigeria’s 36 highly influential governors, all of whom back the subsidy removal. Moreover, reinstating the subsidy would discredit the president’s administration, which has pledged to return fiscal discipline to the country.

There are indeed strong economic reasons for removing the subsidy, which cost the Nigerian government more than $8 billion last year. The government has pledged to put the money saved towards infrastructure projects and development programs. However, citizens worry that the subsidy removal will only line the pockets of Nigeria’s venal politicians, who have a history of using state funds for personal gain, rather than economic development. With labor strikes and demonstrations continuing nationwide, a standoff is emerging between frustrated citizens and the federal government.

If Jonathan is to retain control of the population without reneging on policy, he will need to demonstrate his commitment to improving the country’s dismal socio-economic conditions. The president’s announcement Saturday that he will cut the inflated pay of civil servants and create 370,000 jobs for Nigerian youths is a start - albeit a negligible one in a country with over 60 million unemployed young men and women (according to the country’s Youth Minister).

Disillusioned Nigerians are rightly skeptical of the president’s promises. Additional tangible improvements are needed to ease the growing tensions and prevent sustained instability.
Nigerians suffer from many of the underlying socio-economic problems that helped to bring about regime change in the Middle East and North Africa. Thus far, Nigeria has escaped a similar fate. But the Nigerian government’s window of opportunity to deal with staggering socio-economic disparity and unemployment is growing smaller by the day. Jonathan is pinning his hopes on his administration’s ability to wait out the current storm. But if these underlying issues are left unaddressed, the removal of the fuel subsidy may prove to be a watershed event for the Nigerian state.

I de go come.

Is Nigeria headed for an Arab Spring-like uprising?
After a turbulent year that saw the collapse of regimes in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, fears are mounting that the government of Africa’s most populous nation is at risk of being the first to fall in 2012 - and the first outside the MENA region. Two issues are currently intensifying these fears: mounting civil unrest over the removal of a long-standing subsidy on petroleum products, and a sustained insurgency led by radical Islamist terrorists.

Threats to Stability

Since mid-summer, Nigeria has struggled to counter the insurgency waged by Boko Haram, an Islamist sect that wants sharia law applied throughout the country. In August, Boko Haram shocked the international community with its successful suicide bombing (only the second ever in the country’s history) of the United Nations headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, raising fears in the West that Nigeria is poised to become the next front of the global war on terror.

Despite a significant increase in security measures - including house-to-house searches for weapons in some cities - bomb blasts and gun battles persist in Nigeria’s north. The insurgency shows little signs of abating: since the U.N. bombing, the group has carried out near-daily operations, robbing banks, bombing government buildings and offices, and assassinating political elites. On Christmas Day, Boko Haram set off bombs in two churches, leading President Goodluck Jonathan to declare a state of emergency in the north of Nigeria, the group’s base of operations.

Against this already turbulent backdrop, Jonathan has done away with a long-standing subsidy that for decades kept fuel prices artificially low. The announcement - which came just days after Boko Haram’s Christmas Day attacks - sparked immediate backlash, only adding to the president’s security woes.

In a matter of days, fuel prices skyrocketed, increasing by as much as 116%. Nigerians, the majority of whom live on less than two dollars a day, are now unable to afford fuel for cooking or transportation. Thousands of demonstrators have already flooded the streets, and labor strikes have all but shut down economic activity in major cities.

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/10/is-a-nigerian-spring-next/

cont'd below

@Jakumo, pardon me, but I believe NorthSharp is about to expose ya yansh o. If care is not taken, NorthSharp's wind go blow and Jakumo fowl yansh go open.

DanKan0:
@ ndu_chucks

ina kano kaman yanda sunana ya ce : akwai mu da 'blueline' ta Niger 

dan uwana sannu

koruji:
The best option would be for all sections of the country to acknowledge two things first of all: 1) that this condition was not by our design; 2) that disaster awaits if nothing is done under calm conditions to rearrange our setup.

I believe that most Nigerians agree and readily acknowledge that the Nigerian condition was not by our design and that disaster awaits if nothing is done under calm conditions to rearrange our setup.  The real question then is, how do we get to the point of rearranging our setup when our leaders will not voluntarily give up power, and we don't seem to have a President who is capable of championing the cause?

koruji:
Well, you could separate them into 7 different people and let the cards fall as it may, but you could also separate them into groups that will keep all seven alive, and at least allow them to function much better. This is Nigeria's choice.

In order to make one of the choices you listed above, it is first necessary to dismantle the current government. How do you propose that this dismantling be accomplished. Whats your road map for the choices above?

Beaf:
LolZ! You wish Ebele success because you have seen that your civilian putsh has become a terrible own goal? You are smart enough to see that; however, people like Koruji are too bigotted and tragically addled to know that they have suffered a resounding defeat.

No man born of woman can replace GEJ at this time without dismembering the country. In fact, it is only dreamers that allow such thoughts cross their minds. We have never been in a better position to war against those who constitute themselves into our enemies.

Its all about tribalism to you, ko? What own goal are you talking about? Abeg leave that matter.

The issue is not about removing GEJ from office, I want him to succeed despite the fact that his recent actions (or those of his advisers) are the epitome of gross incompetence and cluelessness. If I were you, I wouldn't be too certain that Nigerians cannot sack GEJ, NASS, and the corrupt governors without  the dismemberment of Nigeria.

Stop beaten the war drum - we don't need that at this point in our history. You and other biafrans who wish that the country disintegrates can go and hug a transformer when it does not happen. We shall become the great nation we should be, with or without your support. olodo


@Dankan0, dege ina kake wanna hira? Gidan Iko, ko London  

koruji:
How I wished GEJ would have succeeded. There was no doubt that he faced many odds, but when you approach it with the kind of reasoning we see of his supporters here on NL it can only get from bad to worse.

[size=14pt]Sadly, GEJ's government is finished, but so is Nigeria. Mark my words.[/size]

koruji, I am a bit more optimistic than you are. I want to believe that GEJ will take the bull by the horns and lead this country into a brighter future. If he fails in this aspect in the next couple of days, the people will rise up against government at all levels and GEJ or someone else will be forced to lead us towards true federalism. There is no alternative to ONE Nigeria.

May Allah transform GEJ into our MLK/Mandela or better yet, our very own heroic Ebele. I wish Ebele success in his duties and responsibilities. Insha Allah, we shall come out of this a better nation.  All those wishing death to Nigeria can go and hug transformers.

The cat is out of the bag, the game is up.

Igbo leaders should learn from the highly esteemed Chinua Achebe. Well done sir, its good to know that you are on the side of Nigerians.

@Beaf, you can keep running around your thread as you wish, but remember that NLers can see that you are like the proverbial Emperor with no clothes on. olodo

Beaf:
Ndu chucks, forget about the funny politics you are playing, cos you were rooting very loudly that GEJ should not back down obn the subsidy removal, suddenly you have changed like Tunde Bakare! lol!

You don't have to make up lies to score a cheap point. I have always stated the said subsidy should go and it is dishonest of you to claim that I changed my position.  I, like majority of Nigerians, do not agree with the abrupt and senseless manner in which the subsidy was removed and my position is a far cry from your distortion above.  GEJ will restore the subsidy and reinstate the N65/liter price shortly. The subsidy can then be phased out properly.

Beaf:
If the people had gone out protesting against solid wrongs, instead of progressive policies like the fuel subsidy removal, then the protests would have made sense and would have reaped huge success.

You are still in denial. The protests have gone way beyond subsidy removal. If you prefer to continue to bury your head in the sand, I wouldn't be surprised. Rakumin dajij

Beaf:
Today, you are asking for a National Conference (just as you called for the subsidy removal) whereas, in the past, you have doggedly fought against it each time we brought it up. Why are you being a chameleon?

Stop acting like an illiterate who has problems with comprehension. You were the one who raised the point about having a discussion(National Conference) but you are now shying away from the question I asked you regarding the discussion.

So I ask you again, how will these discussions start? Don't give us some academic crap, tell us your ideas as to how to initiate a National Conference in a practical manner, under the current dispensation. If you don't have an answer, there is no shame in making an admission. I don't have all the answers either.

Beaf:
Stop being funny. I am telling you what is proper for us to go out and demand, I am sure you need leaders of your local community to bring their own idea's forward so that we can collectively "expound enduring principles, rights and requirements of Nigerianness?" No?
If you are waiting for GEJ to come clean your arse, then you have a long wait indeed; even if he wants to, there are 167million people in the country.

Stop being delusional and face realities. The kind of discussions you are talking about will only take place if GEJ leads the effort to actualize them.  The alternative is for we, the people, to force the discussions one way or the other.  Nigerians have started the process with recent protests, but people like you have rejected us and have not supported our actions. On the other hand, you don't believe the President should be the person to set the stage for the said discussions.

So I ask you Beaf, how will these discussions start? Don't give us some academic crap, tell us your ideas as to how to initiate a National Conference in a practical manner, under the current dispensation.

Beaf:
We must all sit down and discuss a way forward, we need to expound enduring principles, rights and requirements of Nigerianness, otherwise we are on a spiral of exponentially increasing entropy to nowhere.

When are you going to admit that your uncle, GEJ, will not lead this discussion of your dreams? When will it dawn on you that GEJ is the leader of PDP?

Onlytruth:
@Olodostein

Basically ignore posters like "merengue" (a masquerade in new costume ).
Not every character here deserves much attention.
A goat is a goat, and will never change.
Step over them and IGNORE them.  

Eze, una well done o. I see you are learning very well from your leaders down East who prefer to order you around like zombies.  Something tells me you are too inferior to order Olodostrein around and you are not qualified to tell him what to do or write in NL and who and who not to respond to. I don't believe he is as st.upid as you are imagining him to be.

Beaf, stop the foolishness. Is the chaos not caused by corruption? olodo

Beaf:
What we need is a struggle for true federalism. Any other battle is a foolish waste of time that will attain meaningless short term goals; the defeat of these short term goals will in turn sap our energy for future battles, and the fact that the root of the problem has been left intact will only reschedule the battle for another day. A cycle of useless struggles.

True federalism, a sense of belonging for all Nigerians, regional and cultural autonomies, enforceable state laws, productive states and LG's etc and we are talking.

My disappointment with you in the past week has been because you failed to see that the protests were not merely about fuel subsidy. The protests were really against the corruption which is at the root of the ill timed subsidy removal. Instead of joining your fellow Nigerians in the protests, the likes of which we've never seen in Nigeria, which may very well become a path to "true federalism",  you have been vilifying your fellow Nigerians, some of who have given up their lives for the cause, in almost every post you've made on NL in the past week.

This acts of yours are totally uncalled for. I know it is very troubling for you to be faced with the possibility of being in opposition to your uncle, GEJ, but it suffices to tell you that this movement has become larger than you uncle. Your rascality is no longer cute, stand up and be counted, olodo.


@Kobojunkie, a soft landing is being prepared for our President, one or two wins need to appear in his column.

@merengue, your epistle was the lowest blow thrown against our people to date, on NL. This kind of post does not bode well for togetherness and one Nigerianess. Egbe ndi Israeli piafuka gi onu. 


@olodostein, throwing the baby out with the used bathwater is not sensible.

Ibime:
Hey OnlyTruth, who made you Eze Ndigbo on Nairaland? 

Igbo enwe Eze. Abi you done break tradition?


Anyway RIP to Ikemba, but I think this is a bad idea. One only "fasts" to a deity, not a human.

The olodo liar, OnlyTruthLies, was voted Eze Ndigbo of Nairaland through rigging, cheating, and childishness. See it here ===> https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-819196.0.html

Note that the NLC is not authorized to negotiate any price regime with the government. The government proposed N120/liter but it was summarily rejected by NLC reps. N65/liter pre 2012 price must be restored and will be restored. Additionally, the government must commit to fighting corruption in a verifiable manner, or all hell will break lose next week. Subsidy must go, but not before a major and verifiable blow is dealt to corruption.

The cat is out of the bag.

@muami, progress will be when you come out of your shell and tell us your previous screen name on NL. olodo

@OP The story is completely baseless and false. The lying lawyer cannot prove that biafra did not import petrol/diesel during the war. It is very easy to prove that biafra refined oil - where is the proof? That lawyer is probably Dede1 perfecting his revisionism on TV. olodo

naijaking1:
Mallam, do you think it's wise for easterners to protest so that northerners can get their petrol at price less than what they(easterners) have been paying for years?
This is not about leadership, but about reality.

You of all people should know that these protests have gone beyond fuel subsidy. We have a very real chance for the first time in our history to force the government into addressing the issue of corruption, head-on. Do not expect to reap the dividends of democracy when you have refused selfishly, to participate in the movement.

Its about time you gave up this idea of biafra and started thinking as nationalists.The biafran dream was over with your loss of the civil war and with the departure of Ojukwu. There will never be another Ojukwu and never be a biafra. Wake up from your slumber.

naijaking1:
@op
FYI, even with the so-called subsidy, petrol sold much higher in the east anyway. For the past 2-3 years, we've been complaining that a liter sells for an avearge of 100 naira in the east while the price had remained 65naira in the "privilaged" north and other places.
So why would you think the same easterners who have been marginalized from everything like number of states, to good roads, to federal appointments, to official miscounting of their census, and now to the price of petrol would troop to the streets to support your protestss

The reasons for the non participation of Ndigbo resident in the East, in the fuel subsidy strikes are quite senseless and counterproductive. More sensible Igbo boys are on strike and are protesting all over the country. Your leaders in the East are miscalculating again and when the time comes to reap the gains of the protests, the same leaders will be crying marginalization.  What a crop of dumb leaders!

Anything short of reverting back to N65/liter and taking concrete steps towards eliminating corruption in a manner which will enable the government to raise the said N1.3trillion through associated savings while leaving the masses out of the mess should be unacceptable

At the is point in time, the NLC's interests may not be the same as those of the Nigerian people. If the NLC sells out the Nigerian people in the ongoing negotiations, I'm afraid both the government and the NLC will see the wrath of the Nigerian people.