₦airaland Forum

Kdf

There seem to be so many Azimio supporters here. hope you all don't disappear after 9th.

rvp20182:
I saved Ruto from ICC. That time every kikuyu alive including my work colleagues called him Rwanda Kabuga or walk dead man. Ruto was Kabuga - the rwandese genocide mastermind. Ruto is not a problem. Ruto did not wrong. I personally I have never been tribal. I was born supporting DP - Kibaki from Nyeri.

But I am not a fool - I know the politics and the issues.

Then have some sense of civility. Avoid the tribal and the war rhetoric.

rvp20182:
NTSA, I know you like Ruto, Ruto is nice guy, but kalenjin are animals. You will be sodomized. This is kalenjin worst form of emasculation. That treatment reserved to make you a woman. I know. I am one of them. Kalenjin are a beast. Dont wake up the beast. Kalenjin dont consider killing you as big deal. They consider sodomizing you as the ultimate punishment. We were trained and tortured to turn men into women.

Delusions ...The problem am having with you is trying to label Ruto like a tribal warlord all some sort of a tribal king while some of us don't see him that way we see him as man who will liberate us from our tribal bondages the face of a new Kenya .

rvp20182:
Because you say or because youre a god.

Because I know

rvp20182:
That exactly what kibaki and Martha said in 2007 - unfortunately 0.6m people lives had turned upside down - forever. Dont get into stuff youre ignorant about.

I advice you to listen to people like me.

I was brought up supporting Kibaki and DP - at our greatest risk.

Nothing like that will happen.

rvp20182:
Come on very clearly. This online forum. You dont know me. I dont know me.
Let build scenarios. Best case. Worst case. Medium case.
When I was 24yrs I developed Kenya contingency plan and fund. It was suppose to be 2 percent of the budget.
And dont start to cry when I break it down for you.
Tell me exactly what you want clarified.
I will break it down to you into simplest nuggets.

I don't need any explanation am just amazed by the war and tribal rhetoric you are peddling.

rvp20182:
War is legitimate outcome if the process become illegitimate. Uhuru has KDF/Police - 100k. Ruto has kalenjin warriors 1million.
As long as Ruto has survived this long - just 60hrs to go - he cannot be beaten now
Uhuru and Raila have had 5yrs to finish Ruto - they have attempted everything - but Ruto has outfoxed, outspent, outthought and now is cruising to victory - whatever you do - even begging online for votes is just waste of time - people are decided.
That is why all those folks including Uhuru have all booked exit flights on 10th August.
All the rigging schemes have fallen apart.
The Lion of Sugoi has prevailed.
I am told now Ruto is using 4 choppers - 3 as decoys - he has 64 more security private security guards.
Ruto is everywhere - has Uhuru and Raila marooned - whatever they plan - Ruto will know it immediately.

Uhuru and his bunch of sissies didnt know they are dealing with a LION...not a hyena like Raila.

What's up with this war and tribal rhetoric?
Who will kalenjins be fighting ? the govt?

As far as am concerned Parliamentary proceedings will still continue,
Senate proceedings will go on .
Port and airport operations will continue
Military bases,Airbases ,Tank units artillery units ,GSU camps,Ap Camps NYS camps will still be functional
Prisons will still be functional,
The sea port will still run
People will still fry in and out of Kenya.
Cabinet meetings will still be held.
Business outside Nakuru, Eldoret will still continue
People will still drinking beer etc..
You are just suffering from delusion of grandeur.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
It's not too late to vote baba.

Actually I will not have a chance to vote since I will be involved in one way or another with the Election process...but am rooting for Ruto.

Never have discussions on this forum stooped this low since I joined a year ago.

rvp20182:
Kalenjin are everywhere - you just dont see us - because we are experts in disguise you see us; you dont see us - in my home in Nairobi - we are the majority - out of 20 odd hse in our court - Kalenjin are 7 families, three are kikuyus, three luhyas, 2 kambas, one coastarian, one borana, one embu, two kisii, one Luo (built a small kindergaten). Kalenjin like cluster together - so even those 7 families we are a ring...all my immediate neighberbours are all kalenjin

As for Langata - that Ruto plotted for since 2007 - Kalenjin have been registering in Karen - we missed it by whisker in 2013 - and got it 2017 - I dont see how the comedian can beat Generali.

Imagine next Tuesday your President Kalenjin; Nairobi Governor Kalenjin; 10 other governors or deputy governos Kalenjin; then 55 mps !! Kalenjin are what nearly 7 million people by Now. 3rd largest tribe and you cannot see them. Nearly every watchman I see nowadays is a Kalenjin.

You better get off this tribal nonsense and focus on KENYA.

In as much as am rooting for Ruto to win, this kind of tribal bigotry is too much and uncalled for

StivoH2022:
I can also post such graphs that show Raila leading...but we'll argue forever on that

The other thing you should looks is voter turn out...thuraku kuumera plus votes stuffing managed to 86%
This time it will be about 70%, then minus 25% of Raila...Ruto will endup with 50% of Mt Kenya votes losing 3m votes

...and remember that 2017 election was not free and fair...there were almost 2m ghost votes

A little insight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JBurCanJpg

rvp20182:
Will you vacate Kenya because kalenjin is huge front that will be pushing in all directions... Kenya economy will collapse in a month..western will cut from eastern..this is not tigray in corner or Somali in the corner..this kalenjin at the center of Kenya with access to four countries .You will negotiate before a week end.Trust me you don't want to wake that monster and worse make conflict btw the kalenjin and state .

Not really.. anyway enough for today.

rvp2018:
You underrate one thing. Kalenjin is a very well militarily organized society - and the movement will be swift - you wont know what hit you - it will be a flash - and same way for KDF - it will just happen very fast - and before you know you've lost the war. Most others would need months to prepare. Kalenjin turn into war infrastructure very fast - you should ask those with first hand experience. There is definitely nothing like that in East Africa - where within 2hours the entire society transform into war machine - all they need is for Ruto to declare war - get into a plane - and go to exile. You wont get time to escape...within 2hours...entire Kalenjin will be lockdown.

I honestly dont think kenya bantus or Luos have the stomach for wars! They dont. For every Kalenjin KDF will kill - Kalenjin will simply kill many civilians.Kalenjin will be get free roaming ground in pastoral areas.

Its upon Uhuru and his fools to realize this war they cannot win. He started it in 2018 and I remember warning him he was going to end badly.

Ruto will win - and will proceed to destroy Kenyatta & Moi empire. Those are not negotiable. They can negotiate jail free card but money & land is gone.

This Farah Maalim was brave to say it as it - Kalenjin and Ruto are not people you want to rig out - DO NOT EVEN THINK ABOUT IT.

2007 was just kalenjin helping poor Raila and Luo from being massacred - but to steal Kalenjin mean you dont love kenya.

Should be compulsory listening to all the scared fools who want to make kenya a war zone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwlnehSIVaI

Spontaneous localized planned or unplanned war will only affect the non-natives after which they will all vacate .The rest of Kenya outside kalenjin areas would still be solid. And like I said it would morph into a localized guerilla insurgency like the shifta or the mau mau.
Seccesation wouldn’t happen even if the insurgency continued for the next 10yrs.

rvp2018:
Ethiopia lost Eritrea and are losing Tigray because few armies are ever prepared to fight a civil war. Actually none is.
Kalenjin are the ultimate guerrilla warfare force - they will fight a insurgency war - the whole kalenjin war philosophy is built on that.
Nandi held the Brits for 15yrs because they fight at middle of the night - day time skirmishes are left for small boys.
The real war start at midnight and end at 3 am. The rest of the day is intelligence gathering.
Kalenjin are very disciplined, organized and very efficient - when they get an opportunity they hit you with devastating consequences, when advantage swing your way, they avoid loses.
The entire RV has forests, gorges, rifts, and all sort of terrain to assist.
The entire community are united in a cause.
Those are very important key strength.
KDF will be left to throw bombs and drones on maize fields....

Anyway this for me is how the cookie crumbles.
Kalenjin versus police/azimio supporters - that end very shortly in 48hours.
I estimate at least a 1-2 million panicked folks just scampering for safety - near Kalenjin.
Kalenjin similarly outside RV - will be trying to get back home.
That already causes an international crisis - of IDPS and refugees.

Panicked gov calls in KDF to bolster police efforts.
That result into a civil war.
Kenya economy at that point has gone to the dogs.
At that point it's who is feared the most - Kalenjin or remnant of KDF.
Do kalenjin go for seccession war or go for Nairobi.
That depends on Kikuyu support - if there is kikuyu support - they will go for Nairobi.
If there is no support - they will kick out non-natives in RV - and go for secession.

Both sides likely to negotiate because I dont see how KDF can succeed without local support.
Kalenjin will be very united.
Kenya economy will be very weak.

In short - Kenyans will be begging for peace in a month.

We might get new constitution based on federalism and new election - otherwise by then military will be running things.

Only way war can be avoided if we have crisis in a week is for united KDF to take over from civilians - if KDF waits and splits - they are done - kenya is done.

It wouldn't be that easy for Kdf disintegrate and if it would happen only Kalenjin officers would "leave "....infact just like it happened in tigray ,most of them in barracks away from home would be disarmed and held in special prisons by the military.

A civil war would be a war against kalenjins and it would be an extremely dirty one
Neighbouring communities would be baying for blood, Kalenjin Warriors would be fighting on multiple fronts you would be on the defensive in a two week's time .That's why the warriors would retreat to the deep interiors that is forests, valleys and Gorge's etc.

The fighting capacity would be reduced to lowscale hit and run tactics on Kdf patrol units just like alshabaab or pokot does.

Large scale battalion level assault on Kdf positions would not be possible since they would try to avoid mass fatalities and wouldn't match the firepower.
Airstrikes and helicopter gun runs would further cause havoc while preventing them from massing up huge number of warriors at one place .
The rest of the country would still remain largely functional.


In the next few months women and children would be forced into protected villages (essentially concentration camps) denying the warriors much needed supplies like food etc. remember this has been the strategy during the shifta and the maumau wars.

Even if Uganda supplied arms essentially AKs and G3s in the longrun it wouldn't be sustainable for them since most of their trade would be affected .


Fyi don't compare previous inter-tribal conflicts where your main objective is to chase other unarmed communities from your areas with a military level conflict. in this case it wouldn't be a military intervention like it happens in Somalia ,
Rules of engagement would change .

But anyways.. Ruto is taking this one and Kenya will be prosperous he is the only man with a plan.
No fighting will happen.

rvp2018:
I know KDF capability - fighting outsiders - I know KDF incapability fighting internal enemy like Kalenjin. First no Kalenjin in army will accept to fight their own people pursuing just cause. So first understand you'll get Ethiopia civil war - where Tigray simply desert - with weapons or not.
First police - GSU or APS - simply cannot handle Kalenjin warriors armed with rudimentary weapons - leave alone guns.
KDF the same - if it comes to gun fight - they will run.
So that leave Kenya having to bomb maize fields and forests

Underrate Kalenjin war machine at you own peril. I have seen it up close and personal twice - 92 when I was small boy and 2007 when I was older. How kalenjin can turn one minute from peace to war machinery is incredible.

The British saw it in 1895 to 1906 - just small band of Nandi about 2,000 men - fighting for 15yrs - at some point against entire East Africa Brits army then. And without cold blood murder of Koitatel under the guise of peace negotiation - Nandi would probably have been left alone as independent state.

Again unless you're prepared for a long drawn war - when economy is already sick - then pray for Kenya.

Heck without internal support of GEMA - I think war will end easily - because Kikuyus will join in

In short - Uhuru had better pray we have very free and fair election - if Ruto loses fairly - I dont see any problem.

Sending water cannons hoping to scare kalenjin has to be most laughable thing he has done so far. He needs to sober up, allow Chebukati to hand certificate to Ruto, negotiate bankruptcy proceedings as their wealth has to be nationalized, go to exile in shame and spend the money they have abroad.

I dont see any other peaceful resolution to the stalemate.

Police posts are just mere structures with 5 to 10 officers ,a few G3 s and Aks and they can easily be overrun.
In a "hypothetical "all out war, kalenjin militias would cause havoc against local communities and police stations after which a Military seige would start due to the fact they would be surrounded on almost all fronts. This would then turn into another guerilla insurgency.

Even if all kalenjin officers defected ,Most critical military installation like airbases, Artillery units,Tank units etc would remain intact due to their location hence Kdf will always have upperhand ..
The case in tigray was different due to the fact that TDF had conventional army capabilities they had amased for a long time most military installations were in the tigray region.

rvp2018:
Didnt Kibaki unleash KDF in Nakuru....when police split into factions?
Kalenjin warriors evicted 0.6M people in 48hrs - something that left even the US totally astonished.
Kibaki had to share power because after KDF from Lanet were deployed - the next was the END of KENYA.
Because once KDF split into factions - we are kaput - and they will because the tribal contours are huge.

Moi and Ruto have managed not to escalate the Kalenjin into a fighting force - except for small section around Pokot.
Can police or KDF beat Pokot - even now - NOPE. They struggle mightly.
When some few SLDF were armed - possibly 1,000 people with 100 guns - Kenya Police failed to contained them.
It took the intervention of KDF - to quash them.

Now imagine if Ruto was to provide kalenjin proper with say 10,000 guns and bullets.
If they did - by simply providing such light weapons.
Kenya is kaput kaput.

The reason is obvious - KDF plus kenya police - at best can raise 25K plus 75K - say 100K fighters - Kalenjin the way the community is wired can easily raise a million fighters - rudimentary trained - but with two months of training can become as good as kDF

The power matrices changes completely.

Read Waki report....

“lots of serious coordination and logistics
put in place for the warriors to approach Eldoret town from all directions at the
same time”, noting that in his area he observed over 5,000 in one go and that
they smeared themselves with the blood of the victims they had killed. He said
that friends who were under attack and called him from other areas observed
large bands of between 5,000- 7,000 youths approaching from Burnt Forest.

NOw imagine one front has 7,000 forces (give them guns) - entire KDF has 25K force - significant numbers are kalenjin in that security sector - you'd have to unleash bombs/drones/rockets to even out things.

Kenya police simply collapsed in 48hrs and became IDP centers. They couldnt move because all roads were blocked in 24hours.

Overstatement ...seems you are ignoring the simple concepts of force multiplication ,density of Fire and manuaver warfare.
Kalejin " warriors " would be effective against less armed community /local police stations not the Army.
Not unless the army command is non-existent or disintegrated.

Kdf cadet recruits at Kenya Military Academy.

President Uhuru Kenyatta today officially opened the National Defense University Kenya( NDU-K )
the institution brings together specialized colleges run by national security organizations to offer cutting edge undergraduate and postgraduate studies in security related courses.

rvp2018:
Kalenjin - and water canon; What for . Kalenjin are not going to start any war until this over; I dont think you understand how disciplined and well organized our people are. The day Ruto says start. You'll see kenya police shaking in their booths.

Like in 2007 - Kalenjin will take 24-48 hours to overrun police from Mt Elgon to Nakuru town - from West Pokot to Narok - and the army will be deployed on 3rd day - and then civil war will start.

Our people are laughing at those jokes. Those ones should be taken to Kisumu - to deal with stones throwing.

For Kalenjin - you need to prepare KDF - kenya police cannot handle anything - kalenjin are going to deploy millions of warriors who will fight at night - during the day they will be resting - at middle of the night they go for the police - what will those things help you If Kalenjin get 10k guns - Kenya is over and done with. Those 10K guns can hold the KDF until it's split into factions.

Dont even think of waking the monster that is Kalenjin warriors - in the day and age when Ruto has almost cult like following. You just want kenya to join failed states.

At times you exaggerate too much

NTSA:
i don't think there will be a war

and if it happens china will always have the escalatory advantage.

kabe1:
Is that all??

After all the warnings?

i don't think there will be a war

Beijing reacting to Pelosi landing in Taipei


CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY: PELOSI'S VISIT TO TAIWAN SERIOUSLY VIOLATED CHINA'S SOVEREIGNTY, TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY
CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY: THOSE WHO PLAY WITH FIRE WILL PERISH BY IT

Toju200:
First ship made in kenya by Kenyans MV uhuru ii
A 100meters ship

a first locally made ship by Kenya shipyards ltd (which is Govt owned) . There is also another already established private company known as SECO engineering that has been building ships for sometime now.

https:/
.

kabe1:
The police are primarily in charge of security, supported by the NSCDC which is a paramilitary agency, then you have the Army (Military).

For operations like this, irrespective of the incompetence of the Nigerian Police Force, with the jail break in Kuje and the thwarted attack at the Nigerian Law school which resulted in the killing of 3 soldiers, there's no way the police would have been able to handle such a complex security situation.

With regards to Chain of command, I have no clue of how that will work.

Here in Kenya, we learnt painful lessons during the siege at Westgate Mall where weaknesses in inter-agency cooperation and coordination played out in the open.
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) insisted it had provided intelligence about the planned attack, but the National PoliceService (NPS) insisted that the said intelligence was not specific. Meanwhile, as the terrorist siege on the mall continued, the military took over the operation from the police which caused a great deal of disquiet. (remember military training is different from that of the police)
Nevertheless, all the agencies learned valuable lessons and embarked on forging better cooperation, coordination, and collaboration
among themselves.

NTSA:
Security officer in a crater created due to IED explosion after being detonated by Bomb experts along LIBOI route in GARISSA County.

The officers are drawn from the (Administration police) AP service Kenya which is further broken down different Units

Rapid Deployment Unit (RDU)
Border Police Unit (BPU)
Anti-Stock Theft Unit (ASTU)
Security of Government Buildings Unit (SGB)
Critical Infrastructure Protection Unit (CIPU)

They are Kenyas equivalent of guardia seville.

kabe1:
They are in charge of military operations in Abuja, parts of Niger and Nassarawa.

The police continues to prove that they are very incompetent sadly, that's why terrorism in Nigeria has blown out of proportion.

There's nothing political about the situation.

Don't you think that their training and operational doctrine is different and is cut out to do some specific work?.... I mean general security is a whole different ballgame ....what will be chain of command if an incident happens ?

Lurker4Long:
Funny you mention that. I'm watching the rugby at the Commonwealth Games. Countries I never knew played rugger: Jamaica, Sri Lanka, Malaysia etc. Most members of their teams serve. Almost the entire Zambian team is composed of Air Force members.

Apart from the numerous benefits that's comes with being permanently employed,I think its a good strategy especially for athletes since one would have a backup plan once they are out of competitive sports.

Flanker:
According to non official source Uganda received an unknown number of Russian-made Tiger armored vehicles.

Interesting they also have for sometime had indigenous manufacturing capacity for Armoured Vehicles.Plus they commissioned a huge factory complex earlier this year.For production of their Nyoka /Snake MRAPS

800 meter Gold medalist Mary Moraa also serves with the police
Julius Yego Javelin throw African record and Commonwealth record holder .(serves with the DCI -directorate of Criminal investigations)
Africa's 100 meter champion Ferdinand Omanyala is also a police man.etc

A little bit out of Topic.Did you know that some of Kenyas finest athletes are members of the disciplined services?
2 time Olympic 5000m silver medalist Hellen Obiri serves with the Kenya Air force .(senior sergeant rank)

800 m world record holder David rudisha is a police inspector