₦airaland Forum

janga:
@ositadima1
bro be calmin down naa, there’s no way crypto will go down straight to zero without the retest of broken S/R no matter the kind of fud affecting it, its pump/dump via demand/supply

OK naa

Don't tell me u have never heard the phrase panic selling.

jedisco:
Cutting the deficit would sure help. But having such arbitrage between both rates would make cutting that deficit impossible... Both rates have to be merged before any progress can be made...

Export deficit is d main issue and not the other way round, it is the reason CBN deviced parallel markets in the first place as a way to ease pressure on our reserves while allowing essential users access to cheaper rates. But, like most things in Nija, it is subject to exploitation.

jedisco:
The crypt0 space is a rapidly evolving one with lots of offerings that rival usual banking systems... Most of the forex remittance into the country today is done via crypt0. When CBN introduced certain bottlenecks, it backfired and they ended up making more folks in diaspora resort to using crypt0 backed means to send back forex as it's easier, safer, and cheaper.
That said, holding stable coins is very different from trading volatile coyns... My concern with stable coyns would be more of protecting my account against breach and not volatility...

I want to point out that, unlike dollars that have d full backing of d USA economy cryptos don't, they are purely speculative instruments. If USA or some other influential country decide to block bitcoin, maybe because terrorist use it or some other reasons, ur cryptos will go to zero or close to zero so fast u wouldn't be able to pull out ur money.

jedisco:
Regarding the NSE, while there are a few bright stars, it's not a market that interests me at present... Its all share index is currently a little above half of what it was 14 years ago. I'd struggle to find a weaker market worldwide. Before I invest in a market, I want to be sure it's one that has been trending up with time... My focus would then be on finding the bright stars in that market... It's like comparing property investment in Lagos/Abuja and Borno because one or two spots in Borno are appreciating in value

It is not for everyone sha. But, with the right knowledge someone can get in at bottom or close to bottom and make it out with decent returns, then wait for d next bonanza when ever that might be.

jedisco:
In summary, these were my views...

Few years back, I liquidated most cash based naira investments into the usd.

My reasons were...There has been no time in history (over 40yrs) that there were 2 different exchange rates with a significant gap between them that the naira did not continue to devalue. A 25% difference between the two rates as we've had recently effectively means that by simply holding the dollar, one is likely to outperform most naira based cash investments... This has remained true for the majority of the last decade...
As I don't have access to cheap forex or a business to actively transfer the cost to customers, I was left with two options... One is watching the buying power of my naira reduce while I bear the brunt of subsidizing forex for the few rich... The second option was to keep some of my savings in forex pending when CBN merged both rates

How...
The hassles of a dom account or holding hard forex is too much. I opted to convert into crypt0 stable coins. These are crypt0 coins whose value is pegged to a known currency (mainly usd) and their price is effectively non volatile... When I did this, one could directly buy such coyns on exchanges with the naira. Now the way to do that is using the peer to peer (similar to an escrow) scheme run my most exchanges which is safe if you know what you're doing. The good thing is that both buying and selling is done at the prevailing market rate. After getting such coyns, I can decide what to do... I can decide to stake them (similar to fixed deposit) with interest rates of about 7% apr or transfer them out and keep in a wallet pending when I want to sell back into naira


Finally, while I hope the naira regains stability so this inflation can abate... What I wouldn't do is impoverish myself so that a few rich can feed fat. The CBN has actively introduced alot of measures last week trying to combat the forex disparity. Though I believe they're completely missing the point, but lets see how the market responds to these measures...

The buying power of Naira will keep reducing as long as there is export deficit. Nigeria spends more dollars than it earns.

Be careful with cryptos, most professional investors put only a small portion of their investments in crypto.

One secrete, If u had entered the stock market when most stocks hit their lowest early last year, u would have beat the current devaluation. The NSE is know to do such bonanza every once in a while.

Some thoughts after playing this game over the last 1.5 years.

The Nigerian stock market is designed for long time investors and not traders.

From exorbitant trading costs(imagine forking out 2% from equity per trade while some systems make 3 to 4% per trade, howmuch remain?), to low daily turnover.

On average, only few stocks trade more than 5 mil per day. Meaning you would find it hard taking positions at target prices without slippage. As a result, some stocks are untradable.

Anyhow, as a trader I see the nse as a learning ground where I can hone my skills before taking my biz elsewhere. Leave the space for the likes of Pa Emma.

My language of choice is python, hahaha. It's pretty cool. If u want to dabble in quantitative analysis of financial markets in ur free time check out Algovibes on youtube. The guy has some very good introductory tutorials on the subject.


Who knows, you could go on to become the next Jim Simons, founder of Renaissance Technologies.

Want to view d whole thing including its implementation, program and all? find it here:

https://www. tradingview. com/script/LiQbTD6e-Moments-Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis-pig/

Good stuff!!!

They gave away some pointers as to how to interprete the stats. Below:

Using Moments For Trend and Mean Reversion Trading:

*Use the autocorrelation testing indicators to confirm trend or mean reversion. Then use log return, mean, and stdev bands to act accordingly.

*Trend trading using mean and variance. When variance/stdev is high, take a trade based on the mean's direction.

*Trend trading using skewness and kurtosis . When kurtosis is significantly positive, it indicates a large risk. But for trend trading strategies, they profit from extreme moves. Take a trade based on the direction of skewness if the kurtosis and skewness are both significant. Profit from extreme values in the direction of skewness.

*Mean reversion strategies using kurtosis . When kurtosis is low, the risk of trading mean reversion is lower.

*Mean reversion strategies using skewness. A positive skewness doesn't always mean bullish and a negative skewness doesn't always mean bearish . It only shows the shape of the distribution in the past. Skewness may sometimes even have a negative correlation with price. There are studies that show buying commodities with the most negative skewness and shorting commodities with the largest positive skewness can be profitable. And it could be applied not only in commodities . This is probably due to people's preference for longing positively-skewed securities. They tend to speculate a large profit from low probabilities. They will be overpricing the large positively-skewed securities and when the market underperforms, their expectation is that it will drop.

Lately I have been applying some simple stats to my stock analysis, parameters like mean and standard deviation. Hehe, bollinger bands comes to mind.

Despite the fact that stock prices (also stock returns) are time series, they can be analysed statistically as distribution of values with good predictive success.

I came across a post on tradingview that discussed a few stats terms in very simple language. Read d excerpt below. Enjoy.

Mean:

The first Raw Moment is the Mean. It indicates the central tendency of a distribution. People talk about the Mean a lot in trading when referring to moving averages and mean reversion. But when we talk about the mean in our previous scripts, we are talking about the mean of returns. So when indicators like the Hurst Exponent , Durbin Watson Stats or Variance Ratio Test show negative autocorrelation, which implies mean reversion, the mean we are refering to is the Mean of returns, not the Mean of price. When they target the mean to revert, they shouldn't be targeting the SMA of price. They should target the returns to the mean of returns. People usually use the mean of returns as an expected value of stock returns. They find the average for past performance and using that to get an idea of where the share price might go next.

Variance:

The second Central Moment is the Variance. It indicates the spread of data around the Mean. People usually use Variance or the square root of Variance, which is the standard deviation to measure volatility . They sometimes define risk as the standard deviation of returns. While it may not be a measurement of risk (as we will explain later), it's a decent measurement of volatility . Since it's squared deviation from the Mean (second moment), the value is always positive, and power makes the smaller deviation smaller and the larger deviation larger. We should use sample variance and standard deviation, as I mentioned before. The difference is just divided by n or n -1.

Skewness:

The third Standardized Moment is Skewness. It measures the asymmetry of the distribution. The reason why it's called standardized moments is that it not only raised the deviation to the power of three in the nominator, it divides the standard deviation to the power of three to standardize the value. It's easier to compare the value of skewness with other distributions when it's standardized. The formula I just described is for population skewness. For sample skewness, it has to adjust the degrees of freedom to make it unbiased, which you can see in the code.

When skewness is 0, the distribution is perfectly symmetric. A normal distribution has a skewness of 0. (any symmetric distribution has a skewness of 0). But as you can see from the distribution chart, the returns are not perfectly symmetric. An easy way to know if the distribution is positively skewed (skewed right) or negatively skewed (skewed left) is by looking at its tails.
If extreme values happen more in the left tail, then it's left-skewed (longer left tail).
If the extreme value happens more in the right tail, then it's right-skewed (longer right tail).
A right-skewed distribution means there are more very large positive returns than negative returns in the sample. And left-skewed means there are more very large negative returns than positive returns in the sample.

Returns are more often negatively skewed because the market usually sell-off faster due to panic.

Kurtosis:

The fourth Standardize Moment is Kurtosis . It measures the "tailedness" in the distribution. As I mentioned in the skewness calculation, it also divides the fourth power of deviation by the fourth power of standard deviation to standardize the value. And it requires even more adjustments to degrees of freedom in order to make it unbiased for sample kurtosis .

The kurtosis value we display here is the excess kurtosis. The normal distribution has a kurtosis of 3. The excess kurtosis = kurtosis - 3.
When excess kurtosis is around 0, it has the same tail as normal distribution, and it's called Mesokurtic.
When excess kurtosis > 0, It has a fatter tail than normal distribution, and it's called Leptokurtic. There are more extremely large returns in the tails.
When excess kurtosis < 0. It has a thinner tail than the normal distribution, and it's called platykurtic. There are fewer extremely large returns in the tails.
Kurtosis doesn't have an upper bound, and the most platykurtic distribution is Bernoulli distribution with ex. kurtosis of -2. (even though the least platykurtic distribution kurtosis is -2, you can still get a value lower than -2 when you measure sample kurtosis .)
Kurtosis is sometimes referred to as volatility of volatility . It measures the tail risk or sometimes called kurtosis risk. Because a lot of statistical models assume a normal distribution, and when there's positive kurtosis , then they will underestimate the risk of fat tails. Market returns are usually leptokurtic due to volatility clustering (smaller returns cluster with smaller returns makes a higher peak, and extreme returns clusters make fatter tails). The kurtosis risk cannot be explained by variance or standard deviation because higher moments cannot be explained by lower moments. There can be two data sets with the same variance but different kurtosis . Therefore kurtosis explains more potential risk than the variance.

There's a misconception about kurtosis . Many people think kurtosis measures the peakedness of a distribution. However, this is NOT the case. There are examples of distribution that has a lower peak than normal distribution but has higher kurtosis . In general, kurtosis measures mostly the tail of the distribution. It uses the fourth power in the calculation. Therefore a large value in the tail has much more effect on kurtosis than the small value in the middle.

#Systematic Trader

Now check out consumer goods, they have mostly done above 50%. Look at what Honyflour is currently doing, see how it was at per with Flourmill for long.


Edit: the title is incorrect. It is not a monthly return rather an expanding return with respect to d first Date on the chart. Tool lazy to correct d typo.

locodemy:
Courteville is moving, chams not moving.

Check d graph below and see that chams may move up soon as well.

The problem is that courtville is being moved without Volume. It did 6% with only 661k valued at 200k.


Edit: the title is incorrect: it is not a monthly return rather an expanding return with respect to d first Date on the chart.

Willie2015:
Not a fan of Flourmill...
Seplat is still high...
Fair value is btwn 670-700...
We just need to wait if it will come down....

Given that movement of stocks withing certain industries are correlated - If two or more move the others are very likely to follow.

Flourmill and/or Seplat look like they will move up soon. What do u think?

abduleez1:
LMFAO.....

Na Twitter I jam the meme last week. I stock am keep for future purpose.

There is something fundamentally wrong with that stunt.

"Lolita" was a good movie, somewhat like the show "A teacher".

Paedophilia is actually a mental illness, especially the ones that can easily have attractive women/men and instead choose minors.

If the stock prices and its movements reflect the general consensus (dynamic equilibrium between buyers and sellers) of the investing public in the long run, can the number of deals be as insightful as the volume traded ?

In other words, for example, if one or two whales decide to sell off and in the process drop prices of a given commodity, will this artificial bear stick? Can such fluctuations present a profitable entry in the short run?

Note: Morgan daily price list report sheet has a column labeled deals.

Yesterday, the stock JULI(not a tradable stock by the way) dropped by 9.9% with only one deal, SOVRENINS did -7.14% with only 5 deals, CUTIX -9.91% with 78 deals(seams to have more backing), etc.

rickleye:
The plane is just taxing , It will be a very long walk back for those people . There is no licensed pilot that is taking off like that. The weight and fuel calculations will be way off.. in any case Gravity has only been defeated twice. When Jesus ascended and When Elijah was taken. So anything can happen

It is not about the weight or fuel, any sane pilot knows that those guys will perish if the plane were to lift off. I think it is just a publicity stunt, a very stupid one sef.

OK, even if d stowaway were to make it safely to USA or Qatar, such persons would never be allowed entry just like that without thorough mental evaluation. Such crazy persons can easily become suicide bombers.

Bunch of suicidal pussies, but then it could be a publicity stunt. They think say plane na molue bus?

D roof go dey leak now. A firearm with a telescope and about less than 4 meters from target yet he could not hit. See as him hands dey shake like person way get parkinson.

Image123:
Recall i put that important "IF". From the OP for instance, there is no suggestion of force or rape. Maybe from the law of minors, yes, but from the OP, there is no such physical suggestion. i know what i was when i was 17, so don't tell us the 17 year old in Abuja is naive and knows nothing. Some of them sleep with big men politicians, some have slept with all the big boys in school and in the neighbourhood. Some are into cults, pornography, wild parties, lesbianism and so on. Some have slept with and fantasize sleeping with men older than their fathers unfortunately, many even sing about it.
Unfortunately, she may be seducing the father either knowingly or unknowingly. Yes, in such a case, the father or the mother ought to correct it firmly. This is not 1950 unfortunately, this is 2021. Some 12year old have same body physique as 21 year old. It means they have some level of responsibility no matter how low.

I have watched pornography tire, footage opon footage, I have watched all sorts: Bestiality, Bondage, Scat, Domination, Shèmale(currently my fev), Granny etc. But, I will never dream of sleeping with my relative talkless of my daughter.

No good show currently so I started downloading oldies that I liked or may have missed. Some good ones:

The Sopranos
The Crossing
Il corpo del deseo (A spanish telenovella aired some years ago on my local station, the episodes are on YouTube problem is that it is in Spanish and I can't find english subtitles for it.)

Oh, did I not mention that I absolutely love the theme song for Il corpo del deseo?

skj1377:
I laugh in Spanish. Google can't help but if you understand simple math divide the gross profit of Dangote cement by the total cement produced and sold within the period. That is your margin but I hope you know that every company has 3 books . The book for the owner "Dangote" the book for the government and shareholders "general public" and the real book " true value of the company." Mr google search, which of these three books do you think you will see on Google search engine.you need to be a real world manufacturer to understand somethings because they are not even known by the professors that impacted knowledge into you in the first place. Let me give you a simple example I will use myself. I need to get a permit from a regulator and they insist I state my product volume for the period in question. My product volume has to align with my audited reports as well as declared profit as reflected in my tax clearance for the period to avoid a query from regulators. Mind you declared profits have been negatively adjusted so during manufacturing we have two log books one for gov and the real one because I don't have shareholders. So apart from products that are manufactured but Dont reflect in any company account the ones that reflect are still divided into two. Remember all have to be synchronised because the government regulators especially the southerners among them are not foolish so you have to be smart and tidy. Palms are greased as everybody goes home happy and I get to produce another day but among these three reports the one that will get to google if someone does a search will be the adjusted government copy which unfortunately is a far cry from the truth. So if Dangote published in the newspapers that in the year ended 2020 he sold only 200Mt of cement and made a profit of N300billion using myself as an example because nobody holypass you yourself imagine how much he really made from the Nigerian masses and do you still think I will see the truth in Google search

If you have solid proofs you can make loads of money from this accusations in court. Both Dangote and the auditing firm are bound by law to be transparent and sincere in their reports.

skj1377:
I Dont have bad belle for Dangote but when you see the people Dangote has ruined, Including people from his tribe you will not have pity on him. Let me tell you if you have only 1 house you may have built 2 or 3 houses if only Dangote did not monopolise cement. only Dangote can import cement, flour, sugar and in the past tomatoes and rice in a country of 200million people. Guess what, their prices keep increasing and once competing manufacturers try to reduce their prices he gets his government agents to shut down such businesses. Either by one obnoxious gov policy or stupid regulatory enforcement . The evil he has done to the masses will not let it be well with him. The way his trucks kill people daily on Nigerian roads with no consequences to his company is one story for another day. When God said whatever you sow ye shall your reap he was not joking. Dangote take what's coming your way you caused it for yourself. Funny enough all the naira he makes does not amount to much mind you Dangote buys $ at 210 and that I think is part of the forex scarcity affecting all manufacturers in Nigeria including you and I. Brent crude is now $75 how come still no forex despite N504 per $. When the Hausa government leaves and hopefully Ibo or any other tribe enters they may look into the foreign exchange dealings of Dangote and re-adjust it thereby becoming majority share holder while Dangote will be owing the Nigerian gov money. Dangote bubble will burst soonest. Africa's richest man my shit-hole!

It would be nicer if you backup ur claims with verifiable evidence, I would like to see links to news records.

.

Mazi Kanu is finished, he is not coming out of this one in a very long time. He is not a very clever man and he is going to pay for it.

I saw this website on a forum https://www. prosper .com/invest

For USA residents only, can borrow or lend money through the platform at interest.

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Wrong thread

"La Solitudine" by Laura Pausini.

obixcel:
Me: downloaded it in 1080p, It's so crystal clear..can't wait to see it as soon as I get home.

480p or 720p is usually OK for me, I try to balance view quality against space occupied.

If u really want the experience go with 4k videos at 50GB per movie . U go see every every.

MJBOLT:

guy,if e clear abeg drop update

It's OK, I suggest u download 480p or higher if u are viewing on a tablet or larger screen. The 360p is kinda low rez. It appears to be DVD dub and not those cinema cam shit.

Also, download Loki if u haven't, Marvel did good in dat one, at least d first 4 episodes.

obixcel:
Yes it is

I am downloading it sharply, the 360p version. Make I check am out first.