₦airaland Forum

Tinubu is not sound. The northerners are seeing it, and that's why they are running to Atiku. Traditionally, they would have been in a critical position if Tinubu was sound. But his health has given them a genuine reason. Tinubu's greed is the reason why Atiku will emerge, because Obi actually dismantled Atiku's PDP stronghold in SS and SE.

Remember that Tinubu chose Shetima because he is banking on Northern votes. But as it stands, that strategy is heavily flawed because even the northerners are not aligning with him. That's why he has been screaming betrayal recently.

emkz:
Atiku who is banking on betrayal of Tinubu to win.

Those who stayed in PDP to betray Jonathan in 2015, what became of them?

The Southerners are politically naive. Bola Tinubu who is a more formidable politician should step down for Peter Obi. Do you people think at all before saying this?

How will Peter Obi defeat Atiku?

The establishment needs Atiku. Tinubu is their arch-enemy. Obi is an upstarter, because he has not solidified his base.

Who really is more pro-masses between Atiku and Tinubu?

I made my point and gave reasons. But you ended up saying nothing, but spewing only insults. So who is the teenager here?

Tflex01:
The first line of your statement is the lie your Dad or uncle lied to you because it's obvious you are still a teenager that is just having his first exposure to Nigerian politics.

You should be more worried that the Northerners are turning their back against Tunubu and queuing behind their own Atiku. But no, your problem is Obi, who has even helped you to scatter Atiku's votes in SS and SE. No wahala, it will soon clear in everybodys eyes.

Tinubuadvocate:
Lol since this woman decamped to pdp ipob criminal have been going round interrogating her. This will not stop peter pandora of come third distance.

The problem of the south is the South West. Traditionally SE and SS have continuously voted along the same line. Remember that Obasanjo was voted by SE and SS, but SW chose Olu Falae. And recently, Tinubu's alliance with the North since 2015 has widened that division. As it stands, most SS and SE will prefer to vote an Atiku, another northerner, than a Tinubu, for obvious reasons.

The north plays a different kind of politics, because they are always united whenever their own is on the ballot. Remember they have been voting Buhari even before 2015.

IMASTEX:
The North is considered the less educated in the country yet they have continue to teach the South politics 101. This isn't because they studied it, rather because they unanimously project & prioritize the Northern interest over self & greed, a virtue considerably uncommon in the South.

Don't mind that slowpoke. Somebody went to an unknown party barely months ago and he has become a household name and a threat to the old established parties. Only genuine and organic love for Obi and what he stands for can make it possible.

Blaze14k:
So tinubu will give u the glory u are seeking? If peter obi was a bad leader in Anambra what is making him get this popular?

The thread reads "Korean movies" but you keep littering the space with pictures everywhere. Your obsession has become quite pathetic.

sarang60:
In honor of physical 100. Entertainment in capital letter, my oppas displaying muscles and strength everywhere.

Chief investigator, how did you know the perpetrators of the evil act?

trutharena:
😂 😂

The foolish man no gree mention their name.

He could have told us how “peaceful” agitators were able to behead someone and how he will negotiate with them and pamper them.

And people were hypocritically blaming Atiku for not condemning Fulas the other time. But here is Obi failing to condemn IPOB terrorists and mention them by their name.

If they start doing it that way, I trust Nigerian voters to get the code and start dishing them hot hot. Let me ask, how many people dey SA compared to Nigeria? We dominated BBA, and we will still dominate this one if they start doing that nonesense.

Onyi99:
I was so pissed😒
Maybe that is why I don't like her .

70% of south Africans are stanning her and she is their projected winner

Your analysis here shows the high level of bias in favor of APC. If you believe Obi will only do 50% in SE, it means you're not actually seeing this whole thing from a neutral point of view. A region where the APC and PDP candidates are campaigning with Obi's poster? Where those parties' members are openly campaigning for LP? Your entire analysis from north to south is heavily disjointed and unrealistic.

PassingShot:
NORTH WEST ZONE
From win percentage of between 65% and 73% for APC in 2019, I have reduced the party's win margin to a little under 50% in 2023 largely because PMB is not on the ballot and Tinubu is not from the region. I expect Atiku and Kwankwaso to cut into APC's votes but not enough to take the region from them.

Sokoto is a state I expect to be proved wrong with my prediction, especially with the endorsement of Tinubu by the popular and powerful philantropist in person of Alhaji Ummarun Kwabo (Jarman Sokoto) who has directed his supporters and loyalists to vote for Tinubu in the state.

I expect Kwankwaso to score between 20% and 30% (Kano) across states in the NW while I expect Obi not to score more than 2% except in Kaduna (because of Southern Kaduna) where I have him scoring 15%.


SOUTH EAST ZONE
This is a region APC can afford not to hold a campaign rally and still win the presidency.

As I said earlier, I have increased the expected voters turnout in the SE by 10% in each of the five states there. This should boost Obi's performance in the presidential election, assuming that the UGM/IPOB allow voters to exercise their right. I expect Obi to nick this region ahead of PDP with around 47% of the total votes cast. The fact that PDP remains strong in the SE region, and that APC also controls two states here (Imo and Ebonyi) mean that LP will not have it as easy as social media noise is making us believe. PDP and APC have a formidable presidential candidate and also have candidates for other state and national elections there too.

I have penned down APC to score 10% in Abia, Anambra and Enugu, and 25% in Ebonyi and Imo states. I also expect PDP to outperform APC in this region scoring between 25% and 35% of the total votes. When you combine PDP adn LP votes here, you will realize the extent of impact of fragmented opposition to PDP especially.

Where has MASSOB been since? Na where Peter Obi dey everybody dey get mouth?

Kuginzi:
THE Biafra Independent Movement (BIM) of Movement for the Actualization of Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB), has warned the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi to stop using the name of Biafra to campaign. The group, led by Chief Ralph Uwazuruike, declares that the actualization of the sovereign State of Biafra is not in anybody’s hand, but God’s.

In a statement signed by Chris Mocha and made available to The Nation, BIM -MASSOB said yesterday that it was not against the February 25 presidential election, adding that anyone that had his or her Permanent Voter Register (PVC) should exercise his rights. He said they were sending a strong warning to politicians who were in the habit of using the name of Biafra during their political campaigns.

The group said Obi and his members were saying that if they were elected, their government would end Biafra agitations in the East. Is it still possible to stop Biafra? Mocha queried. According to him, “Over 3 million innocent lives had been wasted from 1967 till date and properties worth trillions of naira belonging to Igbo of South East destroyed in the cause of Biafra.”

“Politician can only give what they have in stock. Even if an Igbo man eventually emerged Nigerian President, such a President can never stop the much awaited emergence of the Republic of Biafra. Biafra is now or never. There is no amount of false hopes by these politicians to woo voters in the name of Biafra that will ever give anyone of them “a clear lead at the poll.” BIM -MASSOB said.

https://thenationonlineng.net/bim-massob-to-obi-stop-using-biafra-to-campaign/

What's the point if Mr. A becomes a millionaire while from Mr. B to Z become very poor?

And at the bolded, this Nigeria's gov't actually removed from our future. In the same Southern Kaduna, more than 38 people were slaughteed. If you say we shouldn't blame gov't for that, why can't they show a simple emphaty? Is that one also difficult? No statement or visitation from the FG, none from the state government.

How about stolen funds? Over a trillion naira has been stolen in this government. Now, Nigeria's debt has risen to 44 trillion while there is still high level of inflation. Is that how they contributed 10% to our future? You guys should not sugarcoat the level of failure in this government.

LikeAking:
Oga this kind talk, our destiny is in our hand not govt.

I knw normal people wo became millionaires in this same regime..

Govt is just to assist us.

The poor will always suffer...

Na universal principle..

Govt will contribute only 10% to our future..

Its high time we reduce our blame on the govt and focus on our untapped potentials..

Everywhere don scatter. Arya Star on the beat

And you are on a SS thread telling people of the SS how the election will go while you keep defending northern votes? Make I laught small .

ItsTutsi:
I'm a northerner, currently in north.. nothing as shock!!!!!!

How can you drag someone to court when he is saying the truth? You wan expose yarself finish?

Tinubuwins2023e:
But they have been against Tinubu all this while including insult but we no drag them to court. I wonder the kind of breed this people from that region are.

The way you guys have so much beievein the north, it will be a major shork come next month.

ItsTutsi:
Lol for a region you claim is stronghold and lockdown.. 60% is only 2 states in the north

You already admit that he can do 60% in SS. That's the main matter. But you can continue with the hate and insults.

ItsTutsi:
Edo and Osun state is an internal and inner affair, it had nothing to do with national politics! It's funny how you emphasize on those states as if they delivered Obi or any L.P. candidate

L.p. has no base and structures in SS, you guys are just a bunch of noise makers and chestbeaters with no political clout!

Your SM propaganda can't fool us, the SS region is by no means a stronghold of Pandora Anini.. the best the effeminate frog voice bisexual gap teeth can pull is 60%

You are missing the point. Peter Obi's emergence could become the catalyst for a major overhaul in our system that has not been working. There are many good reasons for that.

First, it will restore confidence in Nigerian electorates that their votes actually count. Do you know how many times I've heard people say him fit win o, but dem no go give am.

Secondly, it's another chance for the country to tackle corruption, which the present government failed to do. I also know that the rule of law will be stronger in his regime.

We have been craving something different, and we now have the opportunity. Yes, Peter Obi is part of the political entity in Nigeria, but everyone agrees that he is of a different breed.

SmartyPants:
Let's assume Peter Obi is honest and competent, and he wins.

What will change in your day-to-day conditions? The problems of Nigeria are beyond the man at the centre, except we revert to true federalism, which Obi doesn't seem interested in, nor will he find it easy to achieve that with a hostile Legislative branch (from federal to state level).

Sorry, that guy that broke your heart didn't try. He is making you insult your father. Sory eh.

Sheistoopretty:
I like Peter OBI but I will collect Money and Vote for Tinubu

Nigerian Men are Useless......all of them

Haba, 1B dollars is not up to a trillion naira. It's about 790 billion.

Dniel:

That is almost 500 Trillion Naira

And over 20 times the size of Nigerian Budget in 20 years.

Do the maths

Why do I feel some of these Najia babes are feeling slightly inferior to their SA counterparts? I hope everyone adjusts soon and bring their A game to the table.

That's absolutely true.

safarigirl:
I don't know men, I generally think that a lot of SA men have (parental) issues in life, and it's possibly because of how much I've read of them.

Omoh, it was really touching. But looking at him, you wouldn't know he has ever had any issues in his life. Looks are deceiving.

safarigirl:
Juicy Jay with the most impactful sob story this season.

I mean, everyone is literally crying

He's speaking on his troubled relationship with his dad and himself. Quite a touching story, even me sef I nearly cry, but God pass Juicy Jay.

Yvonne my girl oo. See wahala

kilimanjaro:
Who said that

"I used to fart on my hand and smell it" This girl na werey.

Yes, you're right. Those northerners that gave him the ticket will vote for him. Let me ask you, are they up to 2,000?

maasoap:
Northerners gave him the ticket and they haven't betrayed him or show any sign up till now. So, you want to look for hope somewhere else

I stay in Benue. LP is winning both Benue and Plateau. These I'm sure about. Taraba is also tilting towards OBi. You guys keep underrating LP, and that's why they are waxing stronger every day.

maasoap:
Labour Party can't win any local government outside South east and south south

Wake up from your dream. Right now, because of Obi even Tinubu is not sure of winning Lagos, his supposed stronghold. Hence his deliberate act to deny non-Yorubas their PVCs. He forgot that Yorubas voting for Obi are also many.

maasoap:
I haven't seen anything he has disrupted so far. The winner is still between APC and PDP. The only damage LP will do is hurting PDP.

Obi will do better than Kwankwaso in those regions you mentioned.

Buddha3:
Of the four top contenders, Peter Obi stands the least chance in the North West and North East. Let's not lie to ourselves.

The mods even took this nonesense to the front page. Can you imagine what nairaland has become?

Buddha3:
Another sensational headline meant to foment hate and inspire more propaganda.

Countless times this man has spoken on how he'll dialogue with agitators such as IPOB and the Yoruba Nation, with a view to finding common grounds of settlement, a perspective both Atiku and Tinubu have lucidly shared and corroborated, yet you people keep twisting narratives at every given opportunity to paint him as an apologist to the Biafra struggle. And this nonsense is mostly common on this stupid forum.

The Federal high court that granted Kanu, the leader of IPOB, bail? For the record, it's still Buhari that's breaking the law by refusing to release him.

Kewtt:
The federal high court declared ipob a terrorist group. ESN terrorists are just a arm of ipob miscreants

Actually, he's the only one making a whole lot of sense. After remembering our fallen soldiers and heroes, what's next when the present soldiers keep dying unnecessarily?

dahmie2013:
Obi is just off point... No offence

When fish dey make noise, crayfish go join dey make mouth.

Jones4190:
obi should come and campaign in Lagos let see