aktopgun:

@pumping

if the <50,000 units getting full alottment ratio is correct, then i get full allotment which can't be bad can it

Yes o. Lucky you. Na only 5.5% allotment me go get.

Krrush:

@Pumping777

Hi.Could you please explain how selling GDR would DILUTE already existing shares.You mentioned this in the example of Diamond bank

I have Diamond with roughly 8 billion plus outstanding shares before the GDR offer,which I felt was pretty advantageous allowing for current EPS of,I think,N1.10.

How then does GDR sales affect?Does the sale of GDR translate to conversion to new shares?

GDR shares can be converted to ordinary shares. In the case of Diamond Bank, you can elect to have this conversion done at source at no cost. So it means suddenly last week my CSCS account was loaded with a couple of hundred thousands of Diamond bank Ordinary bank shares. Cost price? N16.50 in December so there is decent profit in 2 months.

Diamond listed an additional 3.759B ordinary shares in December '07 because of the GDR. That is the dilution. They had 9.399B shares outstanding before. Now they have over 13B.

The number of outstanding shares alone is not the only problem. The problem is that potentially, there are over 3B shares bought in December at N16.50 that are available for sale now. There is a decent 25% profit after tax so profit takers will take advantage and this might affect the price short term.

rasputinn:

AKtopGUNNER,
Why has ABC not been available for sometime now.
I learnt Japaul rights was 170% subscribed (good news).This is turning out to be a killer stock for me,it and tripple G.
Are the rights allotments out(for Japaul i.e)?if you've seen it please give me the link,as I've offloaded the first batch I bought @ 3.7 last year,for 14.0 per unit

I hope you did not do Japaul PO like me. The allocation go make you vex o.

See am attached so. You may need to save the file locally first.

rasputinn:

AKtopGUNNER,
Why has ABC not been available for sometime now.
I learnt Japaul rights was 170% subscribed (good news).This is turning out to be a killer stock for me,it and tripple G.
Are the rights allotments out(for Japaul i.e)?if you've seen it please give me the link,as I've offloaded the first batch I bought @ 3.7 last year,for 14.0 per unit

I hope you did not do Japaul PO like me. The allocation go make you vex o.

See am attached so. You may need to save the file locally first.

C & I Leasing don vex again and it is now on net bid. One day we go sabi wetin dey cook inside this company sha. If na bonus make someone carry the strong rumour come na

Make I take hand cover my own jeje.

mastermove:

pumping in every day english does that mean one should not buy japauloil now or wait till it bleeds a bit more

My instinct tells me Japaul is not bleeding much further than it has done now in the short term.

Also since PO subscribers cannot dilute the price for now, I consider it a good CICO opportunity at the moment if you have the liver. If you target it tomorrow and it falls, you can still get it at a lower price than today.

You mean say na candlestick Japanese I dey yarn?

Naijadr:

So makes sense that price is climbing, some folks are trying to get in so they can qualify for supposed bonus (if any) and dividends, another NSE cultural element
register will prob close same time PO is listed that 3rd week of march or so, so another 2 weeks max of enjoyment dey!

I don't expect any bonus for Costain unless they want to to do like 1 for 100. This is because new shares from the PO also qualify. That will be suicide.

As per dividends, check the prospectus. There is no dividend forecasted for 2008. Zero. They are projecting 65k for 2009 and N1.50k for 2010.

So, there will be no dividend and no bonus when they announce 2008 results. These, combined with a projected PE of over 100, the high nominal price and over 1B outstanding shares (more than 80% of which was bought at N14 or less during the PO) will translate to a sure movement down south with investors trying to lock in profit from the PO shares.

Let me add one thing I omitted in my last analysis of Japaul.

The PO shares cannot be listed before the full year result is announced and the associated closure date.

This is simply because PO shares don't qualify for bonus and dividends and it will not be possible to sell one version of Japaul that qualifies for dividends and another one that does not at the same time on the floor.

So if people get their certificates, they cannot even verify not to talk of selling. This will play out just like Oceanic. I will expect the shares to be listed immediately after the closure of the register in this case too.

I remember someone asking of how to know when the shares will be listed. This is your cue.

RoughCut:

Hmnnnnn bro from my spreadsheet forward PE is around 22.5 so there's definitely something there sha! but if the price never move significantly in the last 3 months you think say the the thing go spike suddenly abi bonus dey happen?

He get as he be o!

I dey come fear to spread rumour. Dem talk bonus but them give bonus last year sha so I dey sceptical small.

Na better medium term stock sha so me stay put inside with all my bodi. I hear say them dey get difficulty meeting up with demand. Na to see if that one go translate to profit.

windywendy:

Yes o, that's the million dollar question. OK let's do a little scenario analysis here: from the prospectus, they say they'll list PO shares on March 13. From the other companies we've seen do PO, we can safely infer that the PO shares won't actually be listed until like 2wks later. So sometime toward the end of march may be a good time to sell. But make I tell you o, bam or no bam result, someone who bought at 13 and has had to wait for like 3months between the time they submitted their result and when they're able to sell their shares, will sell irrespective of the bam-ness of the result. This especially applies if the current market price is already more than twice the cost price. So expect a lot of selling - unless of course most of the shares were taken up by institutional investors who'll be holding for the long term. My opinion though. For you, I no need to put any caveat empty  

You are too correct that a bam bam result will not help rara.

The new PO shares are eligible for bonus and dividends. So we are sure that there will be no bonus and the dividend will be very tiny. There is no other combination that annoys shareholders more.

RoughCut:

So why would you need to buy now when everybody don load the thing finish  push  the price towards Maiduguri? I no fit enter at N32 sha!

The price of RT Briscoe has not really moved in the last 3 months. It has hovered between N29 and N33 so I think the current price is still a valid entry point and we are still seeing occasional depression.

RoughCut:

He be like say action don pass for RT Briscoe. VITAFOAM hmnnnn,

Why na? The full year result is due this month. Action suppose just dey start na. Abi he don comot when I no dey look? I hear say something dey sele for there o.

blueband:

Prof Pumping,please do you know if my wife will deliver a baby boy?

Please reply me urgently.Thanks

If the healthcare sector on the NSE remains bullish, na boy be dat for sure  

ACL:

oga pumping
u know any stock that can make 25% by end of march?

Na only bigboylarry fit know dat kin tin. Me too just dey try my hand.

@ACL - I will be worried about that AG Leventis. Look at the volumes increasing. It is a sign that profit takers may pounce.

windywendy:

You don hammer the nail right on top of the head!

But Pumping, you know say that your bank phb na the purple-eyed monster called "greedy" na im cause you to hold on too long abi I been warn you that time but you no hear

But your analysis is right on point!

You are very correct. I have since removed any purple from my eyes completely make I dey make do with the "greens" wey I see    You sold at about the same price many weeks ago and I'm sure you would have used the money elsewhere while I was still waiting for my own 25%.

Diamond Bank

For those planning to enter, you have to be cautious. I applied for a few hundred thousands during the GDR and 100% allocation was credited to my CSCS one time which I sold today to lock in my 25%.  Not bad for 3 months.

I think this heavy dilution may impact any northward movement for some time so factor this in if you are entering. I can just imagine how much is left out there.

Caveat Emptor sha o. NSE sabi pass me.

adeyinkat:


Oga Pumping,
Kindly shed more light on the bolded portion. Is Japaul doing a PP for those that don't have 100% allocation? How will this pan out!
Thanks for a prompt response!

Chief adeyinkat,

Dis one wey you dey add join my name   The ogas never show face o. Make you reserve that honour for them.

Some folks said they received some document asking them to sign up to use their returned monies to participate in a PP.

I have attached a copy of the letter. You may need to save the file locally first.

crazyT:

@Pumping777


Which one will you go for- Livestock or Transexp hope I no burst your balloon o?

Live kini?   If you saw my post yesterday, I adviced someone that wanted to jump on the livestock train to stay clear because profit takers will strike around N10 and we have seen it already today. Livestock does not have poor fundamentals. In my own book, it does not have any fundamentals at all.

Transexpr needs to shed some more but it is definitely in the radar. I predicted early February that this stock can make about 100% if you are ready to wait at least a year.

What did I know though. It decided to made almost 100% in about a month. I definitely did not see this. I think this was due to the desperation of people to get on board thereby squeezing out the 100% in a month!! Wetin go come remain to chop  

pumping777:

As someone don post photo quiz. make I post my own brain teaser jo.

One company dey for NSE with capitalization less than N1B.

I come hear say the capitalization go move reach around N4B by year end. About N1B will come from rights issue and the balance should come from capital appreciation.

So if I do the numbers, that could mean 100% appreciation.

I beg una, which stock fit be this?

If you get am, come believe, make u grab a copy at a shop near you. No CICO for this one o.

[/quote]
Quote from: Mr. Risky on February 01, 2008, 11:01 PM
TRANSNATIONWIDE EXPRESS  
[quote]

pumping777:



Smile, Smiler, Smilest!!!

pumping777:

I have to be fair to myself. I don't have an agbero broker like many of the folks here.

Na real ajebo I get so to announce a stock I want to enter here go hard small unless I have no plans of entering.

Make I finish first before all of you with super man brokers will block my entry with your muscle power.  

I saw a post that alluded to that but I'm not sure that is what the poster meant.

I think the only time you can use this to tell if a stock is on net bid is if it opened and closed at the highest price of the day and the lowest price of the day is also the highest price of the day. Aktopgun, which candlestick be that sef?

The reverse is the case for net offer.

Some will argue that if the closing price of the day is the same as the highest price of the day, this is sufficient to say the stock is on net bid but I think there are situations in which this will not be true.

A better way is to use the UBA daily stock position that is posted here for us by Naijadr and NBA. Thanks guys.

Highlander:

Pumping,
Please oblige us with a few examples (of course I know a couple of stocks that have shed some weight, but good fundamentals na another issue!!!).

I have to be fair to myself. I don't have an agbero broker like many of the folks here.

Na real ajebo I get so to announce a stock I want to enter here go hard small unless I have no plans of entering.

Make I finish first before all of you with super man brokers will block my entry with your muscle power.  

mecatchcha:

@Aktopgun @ Windy and @All

Please All,

I have Insurance Stocks and some banks too that's been going down. Am at a loss on all of them. I need your advice. Do you know when they are likely to start gaining blood again? Or do you advice me to sell OFF all and continue ahead.

You see, you cannot sell every stock you have because it is shedding weight. You have to think it out properly. The main reason is that after selling, what is the guarantee that the stock you will buy next will not suffer the same fate?

This is the first question you have to answer. On what basis did you choose the ones that are losing and do you now have a different strategy which you believe will work when making your next choices? If you can answer this positively, then you can go ahead and sell. If not, stay put and watch the market.

UBA and Diamond are not stocks you should be looking at every day for now. They may not be heading north soon but they are not heading permanently south either.

Japaul is a lot more trickier but I predict it will still make a temporary bull run and you can at least minimize your loss. One important info you may want to get about Japaul in their authorized share capital now to see if in fact they can still accommodate a bonus.

Considering the margin between the PO price and the current price, and that fact that the PO shares don't qualify for dividends or bonus there is a perception that the share price will be diluted with a bonus. Frankly, most folks I know were piling up Japaul because of the bonus rumour but the rumour is weaker now because of this PP they were supposed to be doing for those that did not get full allocation.

I don't know if CICO always works as get in today get out next week for everybody else. It does not  always work for me that way. See how many extra weeks I had to hold on to my Bank PHB before it finally hit N32. However, it eventually did and even higher.

I picked up IEI to do CICO about 2 weeks ago. One week CICO planned but here I am with it still staring at me in my CSCS account because I did not sell with 7% net gain the first week and now it is in the red. It happens sometimes.

Don't panic when prices fall because they can rise again. Re-assess the situation and see if you have better choices out there to use the money for before you sell.

This will not always help though. I'm sure this strategy would have failed someone with Capoil that was waiting for it to stabilize. Of course, there was substansive news to suggest that this may go on a free fall. In this kind of situation you have to sell at all cost.

Now that the bears have shown some colour, I hope we can use it to our best advantage.

i know nobody is in a hurry to buy now even though now is looking like the best time to position to buy.

Scan around and start seeing some stocks that have lost more than 20% with some good fundamentals. Don't wait for the stocks to start moving north before you start chasing the train.

lawalidowu:

now that transcorp is off TS, THE VOLUME SOLD IS LOWER THAN WHAT IT USED TO BE DURING THE TS.

THIS NSE SELF

During TS some folks were buying because they thought the reversal meant a turn-around in the fortune of the company. Someone even said if the stock had not gone on TS, it would have zoomed on to N20. So some people were piling up. Some smart people who realized there was a lot of uncertainity used the opportunity to offload after buying at less than N3 just 2 weeks before.

Well, with the return to the status quo, the positive news that was driving the price north has been reversed. Now, everybody wants to sell but there are no matching buyers. That is why the volume is low.

easimoni:

To all those who wondered, I no get pali nor am I looking for! I'm here at the behest of my ogas. Just interested in politics. Go Hillary!

Go Away Billary!!!

debenzd:

@EASIMONI AND PUMPING

Has Access Bank Listed all their shares? Is IBTC using their 9months result as full year for 2007?

I believe Access shares are listed. I don't know the IBTC result you are referring to.

Full Time - Champions League

Manchester United 1 - 0 Lyon

United go through.

These "goners" bin follow us sha. Yeye Milan.

VIPICO:

Ahhhhhhh! AFPPRINT. Was that a flat tyre or what? Abeg driver change it quickly let's go!

Flat tyre? If you don chop, enjoy and don't be greedy o.

Afprint for N11? O ga ju. Abeg, wetin dem dey sell abi na print?

I believe 2004 was the last time this company released results. Maybe you get some better yarns concerning them sha.

For me, this na over-bloated stock. Chop and clean mouth one time.

debenzd:

@pUMPING You NO TALK ABOUT fIDELITY WHEN i ASK You? I SAY WHERE DO You SEE THEN HEADING TO IN D NEXT 2 MONTHS?

I don talk about Fidelity many times before.

I don't see it going anywhere soon. 16.5B shares outstanding is not a joke with all the folks that can still take profit from that sudden rise before the PO.

When that party is over, the one of the new PO subscribers will start.

Potentially, 23.34B shares will be outstanding. That will be a real drag. A positive movement will be hard to sustain unless there is some spectacular news that comes out (like they are buying GTB - yea, right!)

samstone4:

@ Yodi

He said they will not let him vote with Nigerian pali.

You can't vote with green card.

Not implying he is an illegal alien, as we used to say in "God's own country".

Samstone4

Na me talk say dem no gree me vote with my green pali but na joke I bin dey joke.

BTW

Half Time Old Trafford

ManU 1 - 0 Lyon

samstone4:

@ Pumping, Easi. Yodi, Highlander, Romans & countrymen- not forgetting Napolean!

What is this link that dares not say its name?
The only uploads so far are Bidco and Omega. Are those the ones?
Please let us all know.
No point in this person to person stuff.

Samstone4

I don't understand this your parable abi na puzzle ?

The source is Napoleon and I have shared what was sent to me. They are both in the link pasted by K2.

If you think there is more stuff, you have to ask the source _{may the well not run dry}. Me just be conduit.