₦airaland Forum

invisible!:
This short timing sef! Or maybe its still too early to complain but I started the year by fixing a particular list of stocks as a long term portfolio to review it by end of Dec 2008.

Then I made another list of the same stocks and started practicing all types of CICO, RORO, SIRO etc and has been making fantastic returns, sometimes 30% on some stocks, excellent fast moves as I thought.

Today something told me to review my activities so far and compare the value of my two portfolios. Lo and behold, my long term no trading side has done 42% this two months, while my fast CICO portfolio is trailing and is only 18% up, haba I dey go up or am I going down? Is commisions for frequent trades to blame? Is it too early to complain? My broker is an angel in all these, selling and buying like he is Musa Al farki!

What has I done wrong or do I change tacticts this early in the year? Bought Leventis and UTC around 3.85 each and jumped out around 6, now see all the money I left on the table.

All the CICO experts , you better talk nowoo or don't you guys compare two portfolios to know which system works and which don't?

One draw back with CICO is that it is hard to have ALL your money working for you at once. That time in between when you are looking for the next thing to buy or when your broker does not get to buy eats a lot into your profit.

Also, there will be so many times that you jump ship even though the stock is still heading north albeit not immediately. So one wonders why they are buying a stock now for double the price they sold it just 2 months ago.

Americans definitely spray dollars. Just go to any Go-Go house in the US and you will see what I mean. No one has complained about it.

I don't spray but still I don't see anything wrong when some folks decide to do it.

What is dirty about it? Someone needs to say exactly what the problem is with spraying. There are many other ways in which our currency is debased like stuffing it in your socks, shoes or bra because of pick pockets. If the Government is so concerned, they should improve security so that Nigerians can carry wallets and purses and keep our currency notes neat.

One of the worst things people do with currencies is sniffing drugs and not something harmless like spraying.

RoughCut:
I will add Costain to that list. As at last year before it went on TS it was one of the top 3 on the NSE in terms of fundamentals so that company will make anybody's list anyday. Even better now with the funds they have got and hopefully results to match

In the Insurance space i will add UNIC and LASACO. I agree with you that AIICO has to shed some more blood like i said before that one get loooooong MOT o!

I'm not adding CAVEAT EMPTY/ EMPTOR/ EMPTRESS because these are safe-havens_{excuse the pun madam wendy!} for the long journey ahead

And of course Oand O if you have an 'agbero' broker hmnnnnn _{SKYE REIT will go into my list but the volumes are too thin for now only 20M}

I'm a bit wary of Costain because the outstanding shares will be diluted about 8x when the PO shares are listed. There could be some selling pressure.

My thinking is that it may be better to hop on at that time.

wanaj0:
Check Beta Glass PAT for full year

2002 714m
2003 541m
2004 162,6m
2005 XXXm
2006 381m
2007 514 (9 months)

So the 2007 PAT will likely equal 2002 figures!!! So they are just recovering to 2007 levels!!!!! In 2002, not sure that the price went past 10.00 that time!!!!

Look again at the figures above.

Beta Glass's PAT started dipping in 2003 up till 2005. There has been a turnaround since 2005 till now. Do you expect Beta Glass to be N10 now with a forward PE of around 7? N10 in 2002 is worth a lot more than N10 today in any case so no need to make this comparison.

Most manufacturing companies went through the same cycle due to the harsh climate then and most of them and doing better now because of the enabling environment.

Should we analyze companies like Cadbury or Unilever in this same way?

wanaj0:
sound, good board, good managemnt but not a liquid stock. they just finished repairing their kilns but turnover is shrinking which to me is an issue for the Long term.

Beta Glass
In 2004, they were even making losses until the last quarter. This was the year they recorded the higest turnvover of 6.1B. Now, they are poised to beat that turnover this year.

From 2005, the turnover has been growing. The Q-3 turnover for this year is already more than the FY turnover for 2006.

The Q-3 pat is also already more than the FY PAT for 2004, 2005 and 2006.

Mr. Risky:
Pumping777, more seriously, THE NAFDAC threat to Beta Glass biz, what do you have to say.  I thought I overheard NAFDAC saying they will be doing away with bottled drinks etc etc etc.  Don't have details, even WANAJO has mentioned it briefly in passing some time ago.  Hence I seem scared of BETA GLASS in the long term, otherwise, they have become nothing recently but VERY PROFITABLE.  118% PAT as per their 3rd quarter result for me is impressive.

This jist nearly stopped me from buying Beta Glass at N14 last November or so. I was waiting in pain for the Q-3 results and when it came out, it was fantastic and the price quickly moved to N22 and finally the current price.

There are unconfirmed rumours that the FY was also great but I cannot verify the source.

windywendy:
So which ones dey your shopping list? I'm beginning to think of closing out my cico positions and move into safer havens as i'm getting too busy these days to pay constant attention to the market. Any takers on which ones are good to go?

Wonderful plan. I sent out an order today to sell off all the "penny" stocks with wacky fundamentals. Fear don dey catch me. I don't want to be caught when things go sour. Now these stocks are still hot cake and there is no shortage of buyers. They have served me well already.

If you are looking for safety which is safer than UBA? I won't go there sha. Not now anyway.

Dangote Sugar, Flour Mills, Beta Glass and Ikeja Hotels catch my fancy at the moment due to strong fundamentals.

I suspect that there is already an insider scoup on AG Leventis regarding the full year results. Of course OandO is a good candidate if you have a superman or superwoman broker.

The way I see it, we will soon run out of "penny" stocks on the exchange since most are doing 5% daily and will soon cross the N10 mark. By the time that bubble bursts folks will be looking for fairly priced stocks. I guess many bank stocks will also benefit from this.

In insurance, I believe Aiico will present a very good opportunity if the bleeding can be sustained. A lot of resistance though.

Does anyone know if International Energy Insurance has plans for a PO?

CAVEAT EMPTY PATAPATA.

Highlander:
I smell a turn around for the Insurance sector (fear of TS notwithstanding).

You have a good nose with a strong sense of smell

There is still a lot of juice to squeeze out of that sector.

SavvyLanre:
@4Wheel or Pumping
Please, which CSCS number did you enter on your Dangote flour form. Is it the one with just the numbers or Alpanumeric one?

The number with the alphabets is what I used. Normally you also have space to enter your broker and I'd say just put in the numbers only as well.

ty_ademolu:
@ all gurus and non gurus

Just as ACL quoted, why bother bidding for stocks that are already on a moving train when there is a high possibility that it would not be bought until the price sky rockets.

It doesnt make sense.

in my own best opinion, why don't you look for stocks that are stagnant, downtrending _{abeg no mind ma english o} with a possibility of an upswing and take positions there before the markets realises them

Going by that opinion, I have selected a list of 3 stocks I have noticed are on a downtrend or stabilizing that I would like to take positions in and I would appreciate it if you could shed more light on them.

bigtreat
Nascon
ikejahotel
Japaul
wapco

Wanaj0, easimoni, pumping, aktopgun, windywendy, my daddy napoleon, and every other gurus and gugurus wey I no mention. abeg make una shed light

Because I don place order for oando and eternaoil and I can bet all ma nse money _{e no plenty o} say them fit no get those stocks buy for me this week.

So please shed light on this stocks on a possible downtrend and others that might be joining soon.

I will consider the first 4 I bolded. Wapco will rebound but the high nominal price will stop it from moving significantly until some significant result comes out.

Nascon is for positioning against Q-3 or Full Year result. Here, you will need some patience.

Ikeja Hotels is for positioning against the FY or Q-1. The low nominal price is a big advantage. One thing here is that insiders will pounce first, so if you're not in when they start buying out, getting in will be hard, even if the result is still far away. Check out Avon Crown Cork this year and Beta Glass late last year and you will understand what I mean.

Japaul is just a sentimental stock. It should move again once it is ready and it usually does not rest for long.

Big Treat has dropped significantly and I think it did not make the 5% today. Due to the large volume of shares from the PO and those trying to lock in profit, I don't know if this will be a sudden turn around or if it will drop even further. You may consider buying gradually.

Happy investing.

ACL:
loma

No,i did not.

Ok. So you can't really complain to your broker.

Anyway, no real need to panic yet because you can't really say what will happen to these stocks. You may still be able to sell at a profit short term. This week is generally bearish though so don't be too alarmed if you see dips this week already.

Things may pick up next week though I have to admit fundamentals don't support any of the stocks above but worse stocks are doing well.

I will still stick out for CI Leasing though. There is real expectation regarding the full year results and "rumour" of bonus.

Don't be greedy. If you get 10% net, bail out since you are not comfortable with current prices.

samstone4:
@Pumping, Wanajo, Mr Risky etc

Re: Big Treat exptrapolated forward PE of 114.
Was the impact of money received from the private placement considered in arriving at this figure?
We all know they just concluded a private placement which will likely have dramatic impact on the profits.
This should place the projected PE in context.

Samstone4

If we factor in the additional profits that will come from the PP funds, we also have to factor in the additional shares that will be listed.

The projection is based on Q-3 2007 and the Fiscal Year already ended in December so I do agree that interim results from this year will give better valuation.

Genuine:
I have been through the other thread a long time ago, i wouldnt ask this question if i didnt already check

Go to the post by Man Jiro on how you convert the data from Zenith website.

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=31554.msg1813783#msg1813783

Check the posts of bigjay01 and man jiro for more information around the same time.

Genuine:
I have been through the other thread a long time ago, i wouldnt ask this question if i didnt already check

I did not realize that. Unfortunately, I don't know how to explain it differently from the way it is explained on that thread.

Genuine:
@AKTOPGUN, WANAJO, EASIMONI, WINDYWENDY, ROUGHCUT, PUMPING777, FATHEROF2, AND THE REST!

Can someone not tell me how to get that file NNSE updated for Aptistock?

Go into easimoni's profile and locate that other thread which he opened for this. Everything is explained there. Good luck.

wanaj0:
Your bad belle pass be careful!!!!!

Na result them release wetin concern you with forward PE!!!! Can't you see the fantastic result with PAT growing by 40%? Why did you now add your own forward PE wey them no announce. Abeg, stop am OOOO.

Abi you get contract as PRO for BigTreat with stock options?

Fantastic indeed. Oya, make you call your broker make he buy you some tomorrow.

wanaj0:
@upward, me no dey look chart but can tell you that DSR is one of the best companies out there Medium to LONG TERM. na the quarterly dividend dey hold am down. Would like to get @ 40.00 though!!! that one go be KILL


Pumping you wicked oooooo!!!! Did Big Treat publish their forward PE.

Well, a forward PE of 114x is not bad. This na NSE!!! Once you can find a bigger MUGU to sell stocks to no wahala!!!

BIG TREAT having bigger capitalisation than UACN na the joke of the century!!!

My own na to share the info. Wether he good or bad, no be from my mouth you go hear say teacher mama get winch  

The way the stock price crashing though, I guess this is not news to those that hold the shares.

BIG TREAT PLC UNAUDITED Q3  RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPT 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 2.045 1.585 0.46 29.02
PBT 0.202 0.155 0.047 30.32
TAXATION  -0.019 -0.034 0.015 44.12
PAT 0.183 0.131 0.052 39.69

Forward PE of around 114x.

ACL:
All,
ATK,pumping,windy,Fo2,invisible & others i can't mention

how are u guys doing? great ,

u guys have been so wonderful.have learnt so much reading posts on this forum to the extent that no financial paper or news is 1st hand information anymore.
its like repetition when am reading any of those papers such as Financial standard,business day,moneywise, stockwatch success digest etc

i hope u guys will continue the good work u are doing.
courtesy of u guys am a guru in my office,my colleague ask me for what to buy before they invest and i always answerthem to hold on and let me confirm from gurus on nairaland.

if u guys keep quiet i wont shine in my office anymore and will have to rely on second hand information from those dailies.
i beg u to keep up d good work.God bless u

God Bless Nairaland
any time

Ha!! You too funny sha.

Forget my name on dat list BTW. No one or event can turn me to a silent reader

Conflict must always occur once we have more than one person anywhere. We resolve issues and move on.

aktopgun:
windy, pictorials to push home the point on aiico

Chei!!! See RED for the chart.

@windywendy - make he no be like say I no answer your question about wetin I come see for insurance sector.

I sabi say if u look dat insurance sector well well, u go see wetin I dey talk. No need for analysis sef. I just no fit talk am as I never get my trade alerts finish and my broker no be "superman" and Yodi don talk say make I keep quiet  .

aktopgun:
all u said is true girl but also notice it traded as low as 9.35 today. that tells me that some people were there just trying to kill the price increase today and the assassins will probably try again tomorrow. if they succeed (pleasantly surprised if they don't) the price should drop but probably not by much in the initial instance. tommorrows candle will reveal if the bulls are up for the fight they have on their hands on this one

But you have to note that Unity lost 3 days in a row and just went positive again. I think we are all getting used to stocks that just rise in one direction. So for me, there was more buying pressure today for the dip to be halted.

The trend has been bullish all month. A few dips here and there.

As far as this month is concerned, the stock is on an up trend. It has moved slowly but steadily from the low of N8.11 to the current price of 9.85 and I think today is the first day that the high for the day crossed N10. In that time the stock has dipped several times but the net effect is for it to inch higher and personally I think it is getting some help.

I have a bit sha and I like the movement.

ololufemi:
@ Pumping,

Oga pumping,

I dey that ship wey you dey inside for the insurance sector. For am, E be like sey PO time still far away.

I dey inside but i no mind multiple confirmation even from you.

Na Oga I dey call u oh, remember

Dat one wen no dey dat list wey loma post se? I dey surprised say I no hear anything about PO. I for like am if d PO dey early sef but still I believe in dat one too much to sell PO or no PO.

That hint wey you drop say the average price for insurance now is N7 suggest we may be talking d same thing. If you don get dat one, na to look for another one inside the sector wey I think go even do better and is fundamentally sound.

ololufemi:
@ Pumping,

Na strategic move person suppose make for that sector.

Some openings dey we still hard to enter for now but with time, them go open up.

As you know sey me I no dey too greedy.
Whats your take whether you get chair on the board or not

Caveat Emptors (Plural)  

@ lOMA,

Chei, You wan pour sand sand for pumping garri be that oh with the movers and shakers

Very strategic but already I think I can see at least 4 insurance companies that I think will give at least another 50% before their full Year results or Q-1 results come out. I plan to be out before that time although in this bulls market, poor results or results below expectations mean nothing  

I want to hit two real hard. Luckily for me, I already have a bit of one of them but not based on this new eye opener so na one I go dey chase now  

loma:
These companies are expected to float their Offers soon
NEM Insurance Plc
Crusader Insurance Plc
Unity Bank Plc
Union Homes (REIT)
Custodian & Allied Insurance Plc
Niger Insurance Plc
Linkage Assurance Plc
Standard Alliance Plc
Oasis insurance Plc
Staco insurance Plc

I now see being on this list as an advantage and not a disadvantage

@ololufemi - Insurance, Insurance, Insurance  

I discovered something over the weekend in this sector. I don't know if it is in sync with your own.

I'm only worried because I did not see this before and it looks so so simple.

BTW, have you already sorted yourself out in the sector or you are looking for mulitple confirmation? I want to sort myself out this week. I think the risk is well worth it.

eniyanman:
@samstone4,
i agree that one could be accused of "pump and dump". but then you could always ask the recommender how much or when s/he bought the shares.

@aktopgun,
what is wrong in putting a caveat with every recommendation?
what Fo2 was inferring is that it is always easy to be an [b]arm-chair or fantasy investor. (which i agree with). [/b]

When you agree with one person in a conflict it is called "taking sides". Even if you felt this way, there was no reason to say so. That is now how you resolve a conflict.

Well, an arm-chair investor is someone that does not invest. It is not someone that does not invest in EVERY stock on the NSE so I don't agree with this your "common sense".

Are you saying folks should only talk about a stock AFTER buying? That is unreasonable. What if you can't find the stock to buy? So anyone that talks about Transcorp must have it too? You've lost me there.

eniyanman:
@pumping,
that aktopgun is clean is your personal view and no one has suggested otherwise. let's not hyper-ventilate or get too emotional. put things in perspective.

You should only speak for yourself just as I have. You don't need to qualify my personal view.

How do you know FO2 was talking about aktopgun being an arm-chair investor? Let the man speak for himself.

If you have been observant, you will note that a number of folks have already accused contributors of pumping and dumping. If you also note carefully, you will see that some previously frequent posters are slowly gyrating to silent readers.

When there is conflict of this type you should not take sides. My post to aktopgun is just to encourage him becuase I know how he must have felt after reading that post.

aktopgun:
Gees!!

i wish u'd read my posts man. how many times do i have to put a caveat emptor hmm? how many.
how many times do i have to personalize my comments and point people to the fact that i have personalized them.

so u really think i am doing "arm-chair investing". Well what can i say. As i told FOF2, i will tell you as well, "if u get d money, give me make i invest, wetin do me? I however will not invest in any company that doesnt fit my personality, risk profile or investment objective to prove anything to anyone, least of all someone i don't even know!

CAVEAT EMPTOR!

My man. You are clean.

Make you continue the sacrifice and share your analysis.

If you say you have a stock, folks will accuse you of pump and dump and you don't own too, na wahala. Abeg make man dey do d one way man fit do.

@Ap@che - Greet to see you here!! Looking forward to your contributions.

Shuttling between this thread and the sister thread is now such a difficult task but trying to maintain all the same.

shigidi:
unity gave a bonus of 1 for 10 so pumping is spot on.
PUMPING 777, help a brother out, which stock can i go for short term, i want to lock in some longman profit. please hola

I don't have a stock for next week yet.

I got on to IEI on Thusday for exit this week or next but it may be too late to enter now.

invisible!:
@shigidi, unity bank will not rise so fast except the go to the back of the bank building and push the bank (literally speaking)
Except that, the bank stock is not heading anyway.
Remember they have about 47 billion units outstanding!

Wahala in the making(disclosure) i have a lot of units there and is seated for the longest term.

Are you kidding me? 47B shares? Abi them don do two PO/PP's this year already?  

Na 16.21B outstanding shares I fit trace so far. Make you share where you got your figures.