₦airaland Forum

Curious they did not give much consideration to Oando in the Upstream developments and acquisitions compared to Seplat and Aradel. They also did not give a buy recommendation on Oando. Is it just because of the issues of governance and lack of clear information on fundamentals in the case of Oando, that made them not want to stick their neck out; or do they see the potentials of the acquisitions made by Oando as not good enough compared to those of Seplat and Aradel?

emmanuelewumi:
More from the outlook for 2025

How do you expect the market to start the New Year tomorrow?

Thanks

ositadima1:
What I mean by the 10-day moving window is that it tracks all anomalies occurring within the last 10 days, starting from the current day. Each new day drops the earliest day from the list, maintaining a rolling 10-day period.

Regarding the volume anomaly, I analyzed the volumes from the past 252 days (excluding the current day) and calculated the rolling mean and standard deviation. If the current day’s volume exceeds the mean plus 2 standard deviations, I consider it an anomaly (or what stats people call an outlier). Additionally, for it to qualify as an anomaly, the price change must remain within ±2%.

Please what % deviation above the 10-day volume moving average constitutes an anomaly?

ositadima1:
Kind of... On 25-10-2024, it flagged on my screener. It first showed symptoms in the filter: a jump in volume with minimal price change. This stock, which typically traded at less than 2 million daily on average—and sometimes under 200k—suddenly did over 6 million naira that day, without much price movement. It was still trading below 2 naira.

I’m not claiming I see everything—most stocks don’t behave this way. In fact, many don’t. Also, sometimes the signal indicates a sell, as sellers might have better information.

Let me share my current list of volume anomalies. The screener uses a moving 10-day window of data. Check some of the older dates—some stocks have already gained in value since they were first spotted, and some showed the anomaly more than once. Look at today’s new arrivals and let’s see what happens with them.

One more thing: this is just a preliminary observation and requires further analysis before investing your hard-earned money. For example, even though I noticed SUNU Assurances, I didn’t bother analyzing it, so I didn’t bet on it.

The painful thing is that he hasn't come clear even with the qualification date. So people are left hanging.

Streetinvestor2:
Wale you get strong mind oh.I for no believe you no go do bonanza for shareholders this yr after you and staff go flex una own with all those artist.

You no try for shareholders. You too dey selfish. I no care if I dey the stock. I must say my mind

Eterna no bi Alhaji marketer. Dem too have to go thru MRS to buy Alhaji fuel.

KarlTom:
Finally in 2024

OandO. -1.49%
ETERNA. -10.00%
CONOIL. ±
ARADEL. -0.33%

megawealth01:
125,000 Barrels Per Day Warri Refinery Goes Live

https://www.channelstv.com/2024/12/30/125000b-d-warri-refinery-goes-live/

ALHAJI things 😂

must congratulate our team for their determination and extreme belief that this company can restart this plant.

“This has brought the result we are seeing in collaboration with our contractors. We have proved that it is possible to restart S PLANT THAT YOU DELIBERATELY SHUT DOWN. We have proved this.

Curiosity Kyari is quoted as saying somebody deliberately shutdown the Warri Refinery. So he should be able to tell Nigerians who shut it down, and why it was not restarted all the time he has been in charge until now.

“I must congratulate our team for their determination and extreme belief that this company can restart this plant.

“This has brought the result we are seeing in collaboration with our contractors. We have proved that it is possible to restart S PLANT THAT YOU DELIBERATELY SHUT DOWN. We have proved this.

Curiosity Kyari is quoted as saying somebody deliberately shutdown the Warri Refinery. So he should be able to tell Nigerians who shut it down, and why it was not restarted all the time he has been in charge until now.

chimex38:
...Pressing Naija Govt neck since 1900😁

Today is the closing day of the FBNH rights issue. Let's see what the bid/offer table will look like.

Red Flags of Fraud

What You Can Do To Avoid Investment Fraud

Researchers have found that investment fraudsters hit their targets with an array of persuasion techniques that are tailored to the victim's psychological profile. Protect your investments by watching out for these red flags:

1) It sounds too good to be true

2) "Guaranteed returns" (they don't exist)

3) The "halo" effect, which makes con artists seem likable or trustworthy

4) "Everyone is buying it" pitches

5) Pressure to send money right now

6) Small favors (free lunch or workshop)

It's hard to see the whole picture.

HesInMe:
I swear nothing makes sense in the NSE. Which normal market would buy ahead of a recapitalization exercise that is dilutive to existing shareholders?

Anyway, you know what they say about penny stocks: They go up right before the market crashes. But what do I know?

All this will change when the Chinese take over

emmaodet:
Lafarge 9M/2024 audited financial report breakdown by me.

Revenue increased by 60%, non operating expense by 328%, from previous year
GM and NM reduced which is mostly due to inflation while OM increased.
SGA reduced from 41.1% to 34.2% which is still above my 30% required but improving.
They are consuming cash alot. Roughly 50% of cash from previous years has been consumed. I guess used in the absence of debt
Inventory has increased by 85%. We need to know why they are having more in store? is it due to low demand?
Payables also increased by 63%. Retained earnings improved by 327%.
Their quick ratio is worrisome degrading from 0.84 to 0.35. i need above 0.7
Current ration dropped below threshold of 1.0 to 0.96
Overall, i think the balance sheet is deteriorating.
Capex increased by 119%
Capex margin increased from 57% to 87%...this is not good enough because we need it to be below 25 and not increasing.
Further investigation revealed they are construction a new plan of 76b which means more revenue in future.
It means it is becoming more capital intensive to run the business. Though i willcompare it to her pairs in the same sector.
Free cashflow is -111% to -$7,868,780,000 which is also worrisome.
The auditor raised a concern about inventory obsolence for off-spec clinkers - what this mean is that there are some finished products/inventories that are either damaged or low quality that can't be sold or sell at lower priced totaling 20b.
This is due majorly to power flunctuation and most of these products are damaged by weather. i guess the storage area is opned to rain and sun regularly.
In the next AGM, this issue needs to be raised to see how management will reduce such waste so as to increase sharehlders net income. 2023 was 15b up now to 20b.
They have done well securing low interest rate loans from govt. cbn intervention at a 5% interest per annum and Effective interest rate of 15.23% - CBN/BOI power and aviation loans,thereby not eating deep into shareholders returns.

Why not put in a little more analysis and narrow this list down to maybe half. The way you are doing it looks more of a hit or miss approach.

Locotrader:
I have a complete 20m units of chams.
I sold all my stocks for CHAMS.
From monday I will start to buy 100k units each on
Aiico
Prestige
Sovereign
Royalex
Regal
Guinea
Linkage
Veritas
These ones will be my new Jijo stocks

NCC Debunked reported tariff hike in Telecoms

https://leadership.ng/ncc-debunks-reports-of-planned-tariff-hike-on-telecoms-services/

Please do you have list of good stocks with year end

March
June
September?

zendi:
(1) Good stocks (traditionally) of early Year-End Result filing.

(2) Good stocks of June/Sept Year-End, expecting Year-End/Q1 Results.

(3) Currently rampaging bulls like Oando, MTN, MRS etc if able to get.

NB/ Just my personal musings. I'm not competent to advise anybody on market moves, let alone Snr Analyst Emma.

Hmm... Those SA people will let you have something?

mohbadliveson:
MTN will be the next goldmine in January 2025

1) OANDO
2) FBNH

Harvestock01:
For 2025, my investment focus will be on listed companies that are currently undergoing or recently completed a restructuring (debt, business, acquisition, merger etc).

Please if you are aware of companies that qualify as such, kindly point them out and dd is on me.

Merry Christmas 🤶

NNPCL should have reduced their price to N850.00 and make it nationwide. Let's see when they will start claiming subsidy and bridging costs. Afterall they are importing theirs. Deceitful people.

We thank God for Dangote. Without him we could be paying over N1500 now.

megawealth01:
NNPC Slashes Petrol Price To N925/litre In Lagos, N965/litre In Abuja

https://www.thecable.ng/nnpc-slashes-petrol-price-to-n925-litre-in-lagos-n965-litre-in-abuja/

I wouldn't call this a selloff. There were only four transactions =>100,000 in volume, while total volume traded for the day is <5m. I think it is just the effect of the uncertainty caused by the lack of clarity of how and when the share redistribution is going to take place.

designking:
Oando heading to the ₦50+ zoom. We might see the ₦50+ zoom by tomorrow. There is something the big investors are seeing we are not seeing.

The selloff continues amid a possible bonus....

Those Wale people eh. I hope they will not forget the share redistribution since they got their AGM approval. I believe with the approval they could go ahead with whatever they want to do with the Oando accounts without having to implement the redistribution.

designking:
Oando and Wale still not up from the part hangover.

So nah Megawealth you be, or Massweaith?

megawealth01:
Airtel Africa begins second share buyback to return $100 million to shareholders 

https://nairametrics.com/2024/12/23/airtel-africa-begins-second-share-buyback-to-return-100-million-to-shareholders/

Buying Airtel in 2020 is one of my best decisions in my journey to mass wealth

Yeah. I wish Oando will announce the ratio and dates to give us something to talk about over the Xmas break.

KarlTom:
Today and tomorrow

Likely bulls from:
- Lafarge Q3 AFS
- OandO Corporate Announcement (bonus ratio)
- MRS x DANGREFINE
- PZ
- UBA RI closing
- TRANSCORP (and affiliated coys)

Every mallam to his kettle...

You are right about the 300% gain.

Further, the prices of many stocks have actually adjusted to account for devaluation.

ndept:
Apology for the way/style others responded to your question. First of all, you are welcome to this platform. All we do here is to discuss ways to navigate through and be successful with investing in the Nigerian Exchange. I make bold to say that so many of us here have been able to make more than 300% of the initial capital we invested in January 2024. This platform is full of good and resourceful people that have been of assistance in choosing the right stocks to buy.

I think, by the regulation, doing the MTO officially confirms Heirs Holdings' control of Transcorp.

essentialone1:
The units TOE wants to acquire is very little. Less than 2.5million units.

Why not buy it from the floor of the house instead of going through the MTO route?

Yes. It is possible this is also a factor.

zendi:
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2024/12/19/totalenergies-mrs-sifax-first-ep-sahara-others-win-oil-blocs-as-dangote-crashes-petrol-price-undermining-imports/

As of now they said they are only collaborating. Here's Dangote's X (Twitter) announcement:

https://x.com/DangoteGroup/status/1870428034894868908?t=eVdU_QZHS2S0U7BWEwNnJQ&s=19

Sunrisepebble:
Abi Dangote Industries wants to acquire them