₦airaland Forum

Agbalowomeri:
For me, anything higher than 22 makes the downside risk higher than upside potential; even for long termers at least you suppose make 10% dividend on cost

never say never

Though probability might be low however you could possibly get your wish if it is marked down sub 30 and q1 is flat or down from previous year


N.b heavy here but willing to accumulate more at the current price range

fxuser:
Mid Week Bears

- very strong bearish mid week supply
(some say its cos of a few PFA's dat were slammed by pencom ! umm mkts like to find theories dat suit them)
- some stocks bounced off the day low (Ex: dangflour, gtb & co )
- most still weighed down by d sellers
- d bears are not done yet
- interesting bearish earnings season


#brace

@ fxuser can u pls give more insight as per bold?

wld appr8

fxuser:
Ucap
- on full offer
- so 35 kobo is vexing dis greedy dividend hunters
- issorai

.

My Oga no worry dem go recalibrate dir expectation by the time dey see d dividend yield on so called 1st tier banks

expect generally 5-6% yield at BEST form this set as at todays price (i.e. 1st tier banks).

it is then they wld know that d 7.7% and 8.5% of Afriprud and UCAP is a bounty

N.B im on both side of d fence jst dat my expectation has been well calibrated as i wasnt expecting more than as paid by Afriprud and UCAP

fxuser:
Strong short term breakouts need:
1) Earnings report > FA's expectations / projections OR
2) Dividend > Retail investor expectations


loll.. those that fall short . . umm

Afriprud

1) Earning == ( in line, no positive or negative surprise)
2) Dividend == (not in line guess retail players already priced in 50k)

my take considering that 1 is in line and 70% institutional holdings i think it wld find support at the next cliff.

wld appr8 comment

fxuser:
Bids
- there are some bids one needs to be mindful of :
- the shadow bids
- the support bids
- the fake bids
- the disappearing bids
- the MM bids
and be be lo

Boss wld app8 if u can highlight a xteristics of each of above for the inexperienced eyes like ours

hmmmmmmmm

Afriprud
UCAP
UBA

all approaching / at full offer

collective punishment or MIB things

RabbiDoracle:
I think Access is being controlled so that when they pay dividend, it will be close to 10%.

If it is allowed to go to 15, any dividend will give a yield far away from 10%.

none of d tier 1 bank can go near 10% DY at todays price

the best they wld do for final DY is 4-6.5% at todays price

nd cumulative DY of 4.5 -8% at todays price

@ Oga FXuser

please what says the chart (on all three timeframe) on

UBA
ZENITH
UCAP

thank you

DeRuggedProf:
Lol....

We will ask others instead of you then....
CP, deliver us with your system.
FX, Microscopically zoom in on Livestock's daily, weekly and monthly charts.
Remember to give us a summary devoid of all those Japanese clouds, we cant afford an atomic bomb here.
All we need is simple explanations on what action to take and not incantations....
Remove all your DRAGON FLIES, Parabolic SAR, ICHIMOKU CLOUD, (it's dry season here self... ), Three white soldiers ( we are not in war time).

Biko.

lolllllllllllllllllll

i beg make una no injure person early in d morning

TLAX:
For those who bought shares from November 2017, dividend yields on your stock are going to be sub 5%. It may still be attractive to you if you annualize considering how long you have held, and how quickly, and at what price you can dispose. My forecast Y/E dividend for some companies are as follows, so over to you guys. Do the yield calcaulations based on your Av. Cost Price:

UCAP - 55k
.

Good Job

however i sincerely doubt if UCAP can pay up to 55k for 2017FY. the 50k that was paid last year was partly due to exceptional item of the insurance arm sold. to even equalize the 50k of last year might require them paying as high as 80% of annualised profit of result as at q3. i think it shld be more in d region of 35 - 45k which shld still give upper single digit / lower double digit DY as at today price.

pls note im heavy here and just doing a reality check of my expectations & not a buy or sell recomm

RabbiDoracle:
We need the patience of a crocodile !!!!

I heard it can wait for 2 years without eating. But bro, when meal comes, na gidigbo!!! Roforofo fight!!!

Then imagine (FPI), Omo this one Na elephant in croc territory.

Na die put!

.

i just love this forum during the bull

wise nuggets wrapped in comic relief

lol

Deadlytruth:
One would ordinarily expect Zenith to have been dragging the N41-43 range with GTB going by comparative size but here is a quite convincing explanation to the contrary.
https://nairametrics.com/why-gtb-did-better-than-zenith-in-2016/

Thank you

Deadlytruth:
I saw one online analysis on Zenith and going by it Zenith may remain a laggard for quite long.

hello chief

wld appr8 if u share this analysis or point to the source

thank you

RabbiDoracle:
Is Q3 2017 out IMO they will want press the reset button in their YE result and a vortex follows.

Morning Chief

wld appr8 if u shed light on what u meant by bolded

thank you

yok:
CURRENTPRCE IS VERY GOOD/MY OPENION ON FBNH

We are missing the service of the correct man Current Price. I just saw his post where he commented that Oil will go above USD60 yesterday and today today Oil is above USD65.


The Guy is good. We should avoid annoying people like this in the forum.

FBNH is good for now. The rate it is moving towards the closest resistance line is fantastic and may cross over to NGN11.00. With its recent addition to MSCI, getting to NGN11.00 within the next few days should be no big deal. The fund as at yesterday had over NGN1.2 Billion available for NSE stock of which I am sure FBNH will attract some.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

Hello Chief

kindly furnish us the recent / daily addition as usual

or better point toward the source

Thank you

yok:
MARKET COMMENT/WHAT MSCI BOUGHT BETWEEN 7 AND 8 DECEMBER- FIDELITY AS USUAL, ACCESS, TRANSCORP, OANDO ETC



MSCI added Dangsugar, Fidelity, OANDO, Transcorp etc between 7 and 8th December 2017.

The NSE All share index is close to a supply zone, which may be fairly difficult to climb. However, if the All share index closes above 41,769.70 then we know the bulls are in the market fully.

For stocks like Transcorp, MSCI stepping into the scene may be a game changer. The equity has been ranging for sometime. Probably now more investors may note the potential that will be offered by the energy sector.

A stock like FBN is in good buying Zone. The Banking sector is second to the Consumer Goods in terms of market strength for the week that has just ended. Another banking stock looking very tempting is Jaiz Bank. The problem is that it is a weak stock. But the current price level offers a fairly low risk entry.

If you want the full list of the excel sheets for the MSCI additions worling sheet/website link you can send me a mail.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

Thanks chief really appreciate this
@all. is MSCI seeing something in Oando we are not seeing, with the addition of 2m units in this period of great uncertainty about the coy? or could it just be a case of mere speculating with a negligible portion of their portfolio (cos 2m unit at N12m is quite insignificant to the portfolio size).

wld appr8 perspectives

robobo:
Thank you my Oga i appr8

over to dangcem / nestle /seplat /nb and the FUGAZ den to get to that point

fxuser:
commencement
(d big caps will need to pull their weight)

Thank you my Oga i appr8

BullBearMkt:
...we have just completed an A-B-C correction; and we are possibly going into the start of a new impulse wave

my oga thank you i appr8

fxuser:
we need to break 43k for that wave to take full shape

ok sir hmmmmmm 43K that is a tall order ooooo

full shape above is confirmation of commencement or end of the wave?

robobo:
From the TA gurus (oga Fxuser / Oga BullbearMkt / Oga Yok)

is this the commencement of the almighty third wave? if not what wld b d confirming signals?


Oga Agba i wld also appreciate ur contribution from the GUT angle

thank you

Oga Fxuser / BullbearMkt / Yok

wld appr8 ur input on my above enquiries

Investnow2017:
So far, no man among the humankind has been able to tame these phenomena

No Brother u cant tame them cos they are some of the fundamental atoms on which the human race is built

however u can master them so that u deploy MOST TIME (note u cant do that all the time) them to ur advantage

i think that is what the chief is saying

emmanuelewumi:
Generally for about 12 months, with some corrections. Stocks and sectors will take the bull baton from one another.

.

ok sir

thank you

Manonamission:
* Favourable govt policies
* Business segment
* Market size
* Sponsors and/or management
* Innovation
* Organizational efficiency
* Continuous development
* Strategic focus
* Pedigree
* Defined goals or targets that can be measured.
* Operational updates.

The list is inexhaustible. Apologies for not going into details. It has played out in FBNH, DF, Guinness (coming from an unprecedented loss, yet investors that know went for it). It will play out in Seplat, Cadbury and Transcorp among others again and again.
So even though the EPS, PE ( which are industry subjective ) and the likes may be unattractive at the moment, these factors are bound to produce the desired numbers barring unforseen circumstances to which even 'numbers' are not immune from.

You must think those that bought into Jumia or Uber a few years ago are crazy. Lol. That a company is making loss doesn't mean the business is not viable. It's not always about EPS, PE An understanding of the market where the company operates, the market reach, distribution, market demographics are analysed too. So when you are aware of these factors, you can always tell if it already manifesting from a result (even though negative) or the machinery set in motion to produce the result some investors want (classic example is Seplat's recent result). The handwriting on the wall is clear. Those who know know.

Disclaimer: The stocks mentioned are for the purpose of conveying my message and not a recommendation to BUY. I have no idea where they are headed o This is also a personal opinion. Others may refute with a superior argument, experience or knowledge.

thank you appr8 ur response

Agbalowomeri:
Haba my gut angle don give you date for the GUT-MAJOR wave 3 na. We don pass wave 2 o

The ideal strategy for me here is MEDIUM term bearing in mind that wave 3 is usually the longest

Oga Agba u know bold is relative what does it connotes in ur term (6 /12/ 18 months?)

Agbalowomeri:
Gut resistance no sabi numbers o

ok i see sir

kind of measured on the basis of pace of acceleration / deceleration

Agbalowomeri:
It has commenced. We have broken a major resistance

ok thank you

38000 i guess

Agbalowomeri:
Haba my gut angle don give you date for the GUT-MAJOR wave 3 na. We don pass wave 2 o

sorry i meant third wave (correction done)

yes i know u said in a week or two time last week

what i am seeking is whether monday run till date cld b taken as a confirmation that it has commence

From the TA gurus (oga Fxuser / Oga BullbearMkt / Oga Yok)

is this the commencement of the almighty third wave? if not what wld b d confirming signals?


Oga Agba i wld also appreciate ur contribution from the GUT angle

thank you

fxuser:
d over head SS plenty , after 42m units , SP still closed below OP but >25 !
#smh

That means the thing never ready to move be dat

fxuser:
umm

Maybe its getting ready to break the N26 ceiling.

kind of gathering all the strength it needed considering the formidable barrier that N26 is

i just pray Jim has decided its time for it to move else all this gathering strength cld b in vain

OBAGADAFFI:
I am loving this

O and O should not escape this wahala

while i am also loving the scenario (and had always known this issue wld be bloody because of the Dahiru Mangal angle)

Gwarzo shld also not be allowed to use the Oando issue as a subtle blackmail not to answer to the issues raised against him in the petition that was cited by MoF

Every partiy shld receive the full punishment for their misdemeanor (Oando / Wale / Gwarzo / and Dahiru also for insider trading of increasing his stake in oando above regulatory threshold of 5% without disclosing as required by ISA) that is when this issue wld ve been seen as treated fairly

but all said nothing concern me wetin concern me be say make all of dem just come fight for NSE Floor ( a la Ikeja Hotel as done by the Ibru) so that retail investor like me and you can chop some of the spoils of war