₦airaland Forum

BullBearMkt:
UBA
-Testing all time highs since 2010
-Support at 9.50
-All timeframe showing bullishness... (daily pullback to support will be a good entry)

Zenith
-Testing 3 year high since 2014
-Now on resistance level
-All timeframe is having good momentum to upside

Thanks Boss

my interpretation of ur response to UBA is that it is entering into uncharted territory (particular as per the last 5 years), which in itself has a high probability of heralding elevated volatility (as the birth of all new things brings with it a lot of disruptions). kindly correct if i am wrong

BullBearMkt:
MARKET GATHERS MOMENTUM AHEAD OF WAVE 5
Since the minor pullback of NSE ASI in the first week of July, market has witnessed low volume to push the price up. However, market reinvigorates itself by providing the necessary "power" needed to commence Elliot wave 5. If the increase in volume as witnessed on Friday is sustained, overcoming resistance at 34,350 will not only be easy, but it will also introduce the beginning of wave 5.

From Elliot waves rule, wave 5 which is an impulsive wave is expected to be longer than corrective wave 4 but lesser than wave 3. It is expected wave 5 will likely take NSE ASI to 2-year-high seen in April 2015 or above.

What is needed to accomplish this are more momentum and "energy" (drink) - volume.

Gradually, July 2017 is proving the statisticians right that in a bullish environment, July is likely to be more bullish than bearish. However, August is around the corner and statistically it is the most bearish month in the calendar year since 2002. In a bullish condition however, August has a 50% chance of ending bullish but in general, the chance is reduced to 27% based on available data since 2002.

PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN

Oga Bullbear

against the background 0f your above contribution, may i ask what is the next minor and major resistance and support level for the NSE, UBA and Zenith
@ Fxuser i wld also appreciate your contribution to same enquiries

thank you

FLAKARIBE:
2.5L 2006 is best, all bugs sorted out.
V8 is good, but thirsty
If you must do "v6", avoid the 2.9 matted to a 4 speed auto gear prone to trans failure, however the year 08 and above 3.2L engine you can do.

You only live Once, why not take a risk and enjoy life at its best...do not let the fear of the unknown limit your goals and objectives.

Stay blessed!

Hello Flakaribe

how about the 3.2L 2007 how is that compared to the 2.5L 2006

DeRuggedProf:
We are sensing aroma outside the kitchen for a very long time, but the cooks are refusing to come out...

Oga D prof

i beg make dem neva come

make the aroma persist
if them come now the food might not be as sweet as the aroma

biko i beg let the aroma persist

we can continue to use bread or eko (local solidify pap) to eat the aroma

and use water wash down the mixture

stcool:
I have a problem with huge increase in domestic retail participation that is not commensurate with Foreign and Domestic institutional for the month of June. Read inbetween the line.

I hope its not what am thinking.

kindly share ur thot on d bolded

pluto09:
Which kind yeye result be this. The nse should stop accepting bad result for now, make all these 'cobweb' companies no come spoil the bull run with thier never do well result

.

i support your motion

Oga Intendy shld help pass this resolution of this honuorable house to the NSE with immediate alacrity.

nothing untoward shld be done to truncate this rally i beg

locodemy:
Make una enjoy.i go join una for wave6 possibly sept/october and it will run to December.
once again make una enjoy while the offer lasts.

.

Oga Loco i beg na God i take beg you never mention wave 6 at all

i beg make u let this 5 run well well before u even start to mention that name
biko

@ Oga Fxuser @ Oga Bullbear

what is the technicals saying on UBA and Zenith

OakPearl:
It will interest you to know that those figures for UBA have changed dramatically with the latest share buy back.
Meaning you will have to redistribute the earnings to less than the 2 billion shares bought back from staff share scheme.
EPS has increased, meaning dividend per share too have every tendency to increase likewise.
The market is revaluing UBA accordingly.
People of God, this is not the time to sell your UBA if you have.

.

hello chief

what in ur opinion should the revalued price of UBA be? (i understand u a not mr market, just want ur opinion and reason for arriving at such)

PharmAlfred:
How come Transcorp with almost no EPS is trading that high? Why is Eterna PLC condemned to perpetual sub #4 even with their good shape?

What drives our market most is sentiment and perceived return on investment in the short term.

Imagine what the price of Oando will be if they gave half of what Conoil is giving. I bet it will be trading above #50

thank you so much ur examples help drive my point better. The determinant of prices on NSE goes beyond the EPS (of UBA vs Access) the original poster was looking at

holm:
Access - Q1EPS (90K), Price N10.24K

UBA - Q1EPS(69K), Price N10.41K

Life is quite similar to a plate of peppersoup

mayb d market is looking at who pays out more. You might want to consider that also.

in another instance. how abt GTB and Zenith that have nearly the same EPS and a price differential of close to 60%

DeRuggedProf:
The falcon cannot hear the falconer...

Discl: I am not here.

.


looking like that


and the only consequences of such is fatal to either both or at least one of the two

DeRuggedProf:
Why allow someone else to fill your empty check when you have your own pen?

Classical as always

DeRuggedProf:
Swinging your hand as a living being is no achievement, but when a dead man blinks an eye inside the mortuary, you may not wait to confirm..

Classic again from the one and only Prof

you might want to consider documenting all these ur nuggets for posterity

They are succinct and drive home the point without fuss

and if i may ask what was your thesis / dissertation for ur doctoral

DeRuggedProf:
No Be Small Thing

my broda na really nbst

i just hope its not fake

fxuser:
UBA
- this full bid nbst
- 59m units ! !

wats nbst?

fxuser:
loll
u wud have to apply d Robobo Discounted Cash Flow model using the PRAMT random walk pattern analysis
una no go kee me here loll
need a beer
cheers good people.

.

lol

The PRAMT is not all Spiritual, there is some part of the equation that is science if u use UBA / ACCESS as a an example.

that use to be between 0.6 and 0.7 until the most recent bull ( up until April )

currently it is between 0.9 - 0.95

anything outside this band currently is an invitation to arbitrage (subject to txn cost)

someone here also once establish a PRAMT between Dangsugar and Dangflour (though i cant remember the figure used then)

Oga Prof

i await your response

fxuser:
the distance btw gt and zenith is outside d bands of Prof Rugged Avg Moving Tolerance #PRAMT
it is certain that one of d above must adjust to acceptable PRAMT levels
And we know wh one ! ( dat wh d wkly RSI crosses 69.1 )

#tgif

@prof @fxuser

what do u think the ideal PRAMT is (.6 / .7 / 0.8

what is d historical PRAMT (.6 / .7 / 0.8

wld appr8 a response

fxuser:
vol precedes price & price precedes news

words on marble

action shall be judged according to intention

intention = volume

price = action

DeRuggedProf:
Even when results are good, the price may have been factored into the price already and rally may last only for part of a trading session, a day or two, then lamentations take over.
The good result may reverse after auditing at year end.
In some cases, the price starts dropping immediately after a wonderful result and you become confused...

Look at year to date return of a stock you want to buy. Look at its support and resistance and [b]also look at where it traded very high volumes last [/b]and you may get a little guide in addition.

Word

also as a small caveat to the bold neglect the crossdeals when looking at these high volumes cos they cld be misleading (a la recent UBA 2.08b units crossdeal)

pluto09:
I will not be suprised if it turns out that vanguard retract that story. I cant connect with what the story is
saying.

Thank you

That Vanguard report was written by a financial illiterate ( no insult intended).

How can you be saying that Afriprudential be buying the shares and UBA is cancelling the same shares in the SAME report.

fxuser:
umm i have this book
Just go straight to Chapter 6: The Psychology of panics

pg 140


pg 140a

'' capital markets have

Thank you appr8

DeRuggedProf:
HOLD.

Offers were blocked deliberately in an oil coy...

Oga Prof but why u dey vex for this txn naaaa

Oga Intendy warn of a technical suspension on d Stock some days ago naaaa

maybe that is the "technical suspension"

pluto09:
But one would want to ask, why didnt the management buy the share back when uba was selling for N4 or N5

wicked question

but i think it is because share buy back is not authorized in Nigeria (just like short selling is not ) , i might be wrong though

could also be because this is being bought back from a staff scheme which has a shelf life which just matured (hence not available when it was N3 /N4 / N5 e.t.c)

my layman thinking though, wld appr8 the experts opinion on same

DeRuggedProf:
https://www.google.com.ng/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=7_ptWZXACq-k8wffxYjwAg&gws_rd=ssl#q=MARKET+PANIC+STEPHEN+VINES+PDF

God Bless you plenty Sir (i have something to consume for the wekend)

This is the unquantifiable benefit of this forum

and not unnecessary bickering

shigidi:
The OCI to me represents available for sale equities or bonds THAT HAVE NOT BEEN liquidated yet. Paper profit. If they do not liquidate at year end, it is not transferrable

better insight and clarity, was only looking at the equity side of the business, totally agree with the "paper profit".

thank you

BullBearMkt:
...if UCAP's Q2 results is not good, don't worry keep dumping your holdings...Smart monies (sentiment investors/traders) are ready to accumulate everything even at previous low in March!!!

...just been sarcastic!

they are already doing that. double 20 days average volume (6m units) already traded as at half day today


there could be room for more though

rebekah2011:
I do not think it is a disappointing results. Check the OCI, if this is factored the EPS will be 56k.

the available for sale which carries almost 1.4b in the OCI should denote the income from proprietary trading of the stockbroking arm

however the real question here should be "would the income be shareable (dividend) at the end of the year when the income is moved to P&L? considering that the fair value reserve is already in negative.

practicing accountants in the house could help out here as i am very rustic knowledge wise on its treatment



Caveat: im VERY heavy here

DeRuggedProf:
Another priceless advice, but only people like me who were severally detained there will likely value this reminder.
'JI' is almost always possible, but the 'JO' part is where the scenario may get tricky for days, weeks or even months.
Anytime you want to 'JI' into an illiquid stock, Imagine being asked to submit your manhood in exchange for a beautiful virgin.
After this momentary reflection, you may proceed with your purchase....

Very wicked analogy

i wld keep that in mind not only on illiquid stock but on most transactions i entered into

classical agba lowo meri

BullBearMkt:
...yes, we are still in corrective wave 4. Wave 5 will be confirmed after breaking the highs of wave 4 (pointed arrow)

thank you

appreciate your response

BullBearMkt:
...correct. Over 25% of Impulse wave 3 has already been reversed

@bullbear @fxuser

where are we on this wave (still corrective wave 4) ?

BullBearMkt:
WHAT IS THE MARKET DIRECTION IN JULY?
Historically, the month of July is more bearish than bullish. As indicated in the table below, between 2002 and 2016, 63% of the time, July is more bearish than 47% it is bullish. Breaking this further down; the years we witnessed explosive bullishness on NSE (between 2002 -2007), July was more bullish as 67% of the times, July ended in price appreciation in the market. On the other hand, between 2008 - 2016, which are the worst years on NSE, the market price appreciated as little as 33% of the time.

Considering above statistics, where will be market direction go this month?

Let start by looking at recent activities this year. From mid April, NSE ASI has since created new 52 week high with many stocks creating new highs every single day as investors' sentiments keep increasing. On top of this, Nigeria economy is said to be coming out of recession as the country's GDP has been consistently growing. All these are pointing to the fact that we are in a bullish year.

Analysing recent market activities, last week Friday's market close was bearish, but that is what I call, "a good bear". Using 5 mins chart, bears initially drove market price down to 32,766 before the bulls came in forcefully and took the price up to 33,117 in order to ensure that NSE price depreciation is kept "low" at -0.46%. Adding market close with previous 3 day candlestick gives a Doji pattern. Meaning for 4 consecutive days market cannot decide which direction to take the price to.

Technically, from the close of Friday, price can go either up or down. So, future trading days are critical to determine market direction in July. If price can close above the highs created in the last 4 days (on high volume), more bulls will be introduced into the market, however, if bears can attack the market ferociously and dominate, a close below the low of the last 4 days will further drive the price down!

REASONS FOR PRICE GOING UP IN JULY
-We are in a bull market
-Growing investors' sentiments
-Growth in GDP and Manufacturing index
-NSE 30 most capitalised stocks Q2 reports to be more positive and market perception of such reports
-Oil price Rising cum Falling in value of Dollars globally: Major determinants will be this week's FOMC meeting and US Nonfarm Payroll reports


REASONS FOR PRICE GOING DOWN IN JULY
-Historically, July favours bears more than bulls
-Many banks exposure to NPL
-Unforeseen unrest locally & govt handling

WHERE DOES BULLBEARMKT STANDS?
Let me state before hand that market does not respect individual opinion or analysis, what we are just doing is to provide educative prediction based on experiences.
If the price can close above previous 4 days high as explained before, I am of the opinion that with the high market sentiments and growth in economic data, July is more likely to end in price appreciation. My trading plan is to pick stock(s) of interest and look for long-term support level to place my entry with a pre-determined stop loss, which I can easily control and allow market to determine my profits (if any).

Welcome you all to the month of July (the month of "7")... what does 7 means to you?

Chief thank you for this

God bless you real good