₦airaland Forum

DeRuggedProf:
I have been severally tempted in my dreams to set up something, but my experience has shown me to restrict myself to financial markets, till I haven't genuine need for money again. Alike on my mind.
My work experience in multinationals has given me an omni-directional view into the limitless destructive capacity of MOST megalomania possessed and cancerous mismanagement talents.
I will never be deceived to disguise charity, as 'my company' or 'start-up'. NEVER!!!
It is sad. Very sad when I reflect on some experiences.

chai Prof a u speaking to Wale in bolded (a la his mantra of leading African Intergrated Energy Company)

u wicked ooooooo

emmanuelewumi:
That is why we should be informed about happenings in our companies, such inter companies loans are usually approved at AGM nothing stops interested retail investors to grant such loans if they are comfortable with the terms and conditions of the loan.

What were our institutional investors doing when NB was selling for N40 in 2008. The foreign investors were mopping up shares during the bear. It appears apart from Dangote, a larger chunk of shares on NSE are in the hands of foreign investors.

Oga Emma please speak directly to the issue

Dont glorify one over another.

me and you know that retails investors cant possibly lend such money and we also know that at the point of lending the foreign managers wld never made mention of any conversion of the loan to shares at a future date all these always come about later

both are bad (foreign mangers using unsrupulous mean to corner coy / sitting (local) managers actively competing with coys they are suppose to lead)

when one of these moves pays us (possibly because we are inadvertently positioned) we shldnt glorify it

what wld you say to the example of (NBC / IHS cited above)

or so many other attempt by foreign owned coys trying to buy out minorty shareholders at ridiculously low price by unethical mean (e.g Mobil)


N.B i dont own any of the coys use for example (except oando)

BullBearMkt:
...that's another angle to view it, however, morally and legally, it is wrong. That is simply conflict of interest and I am sure such a fellow signed the conflict of interest paper with his employer. It is required that if you have such business interest, you should resign from your position and not corner your employer's customers using your position as MD wrongly...

my broda

dont get me wrong, it is totally wrong (conflict of interest) ethically, morally and legally and im not one to support such.

im just highlighting / throwing some perspective to the foreign manager / local managers thing so that it wld be clear no one side is completely good or completely bad.

there are always shades of gray and we shldnt see the issue from a strictly black or white perspective

Coolcash1:
This is wrong of Oando and its purely an attempt to scuttle the investigation process. The company should be sanctioned for the press release. You don't comment on matters of investigation until its concluded.

We are watching...

thought so too but they have been smart not to mention the basis of investigation (only alluding to the fact that they are cooperating) but only to out the person behind it so that their case might be in public court.

smart alec / lawyers them are (in oando).

one thing is sure though, from the couple of responses so far it seems Wale is truly shaken this time around which is good for his soul

BullBearMkt:
...it's all about greed & self-centred! Very regretful!!!

i dont agree

we only take side because we are at the receiving end (as minor / retail shareholders).

wht wld u say abt same foreign managers that use unscrupulous mean to take coy private or take more stake ( a la NBC, a la IHS and as presently might be going on in Guiness i.e. conversion of inter company loan to shares when the share price is seriousll depressed / challenged as a result of finance cost necessitated by same loan).

to me its just the shark world of captalism playing out. eat or ye shall be eaten


N.B: This is not to excuse mismanagers like Rufus Giwa / Bunmi Oni et al

fxuser:
Oando

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/19432_OANDO_PLC_-_PRESS_RELEASE_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_AUGUST_2017.pdf


'' Alhaji Manga hostile take over uncovered by d cowboys ''

#GrabPoP-Corn

dont sound the trumpet yet

google Mangal and you wld know that he is brutal (Ask the Kaduna / Kano textile industry).

couple with the fact that he is from katsina (and we all know how ethnicity cld move levers in Nigeria).

i had an instinct (on thing getting awry) sme moons back when Wale and Co were collecting money from him when they were in the bind as per closing out on Conoco deal (that was before they were able to get the italian guy to come in which eventualy was the relief that enabled the conoco deal be closed)

kind of like dining with the devil then

my only prayer is that they shld fight dirty in the market (and not through regulator) just as did by the ibru on Capital Hotel which eventually shot the price of caphotel through the roof


N.B pls note im heavy here

emmanuelewumi:
Nothing much a Federal High Court in Port Harcourt only ordered the arrest and detention of 3 rigs belonging to Oando because of a small debt that should be less than N20 billion.

thank you for sharing

do you have an idea if teh creditors are banks?

if so which bank(s) is involve

BullBearMkt:
...lol!
Most of these things we already know them but implementation when the chips are down is the "wahala"

Oga Bullbear

please help with NSE and UBA technicals and chart

wld appr8

thank you

BullBearMkt:
...past 3 days, bulls have taken over the stock, a slight pullback to N7.10 tomorrow will be interesting for a short-term play to potentially N8.
WARNING: OANDO is a highly volatile stock and could reach your profit or loss price unexpectedly!

PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN

wld appr8 same for NSE

Naturallyme:
No, on mainland. he is a Volvo expert.

Chief please where on the mainland

wld appr8 if you oblige with his detail

thank you

BullBearMkt:
... "Impossicant". I cannot think of abandoning the GREAT SHIP OF Nairaland forum

thank you for droping bye

i understand you a busy cos u said sometime ago that you involve in some project on technicals for NSE

however we would appreciaet if you drop by once in a while

also let us know when you finish with the project some of us might be interested

DeRuggedProf:
BullBearMkt, where art thou?
We are missing your insights.

seems oga bullbearmkt had abandoned ship

DeRuggedProf:
Awaiting 'capital transfusion'......

wicked man


i beg where is Oga BullbearMkt its been quite a while

fxuser:
lol . . a third will make 3 black Crows
we wait and see !

Hello Chief

if the index breaks below 36k what other indicator / sign can one rely on to finally confirm that it is reversal and not retracement.

wld appr8 ur response.

in addition kindly note that there is 3 black crow already if u take monday into consideration, so this is looking like a more like a reversal than a retracement

nio68:
lol I know.. I meant translate so we non technical people can understand .. is it a red or black marubozo?

as said i am a baby on d tin, mayb oga fxuser wld help out

nio68:
speak English pls

My Oga i beg make u no vex

na english i dey speak naaa

it is only marubozo that is not english in d post.

and its a technical trading terms/ signal

becos im a baby on the technical thing i was trying to confirm from the ogas in the house

robobo:
.




thank you boss

u confirmed what i am looking at

which is that a break below 36000 wld b steep (32000) so it wld b better to get out of the market if that happens

as for the 4 weeks break (if 36k is not broken) i think that also speak to the fundamental side (macro economy). i think it shld be more like min of 4 weeks max of 8 weeks which wld tie in with 3rd quarter result / positioning for end year result/ MSCI final decision on Nigeria reclassification/ getting out of recession / and possibly unification of fx rate (if the fuel importation imbroglio can be resolved).

once again thank you i appreciate

@fxuser

double marubozo at the very edge of 36k


hmmmm calls for concern

[quote author=fxuser post=59529642][/quote].




thank you boss

u confirmed what i am looking at

which is that a break below 36000 wld b steep (32000) so it wld b better to get out of the market if that happens

as for the 4 weeks break (if 36k is not broken) i think that also speak to the fundamental side (macro economy). i think it shld be more like min of 4 weeks max of 8 weeks which wld tie in with 3rd quarter result / positioning for end year result/ MSCI final decision on Nigeria reclassification/ getting out of recession / and possibly unification of fx rate (if the fuel importation imbroglio can be resolved).

once again thank you i appreciate

[quote author=fxuser post=59528569][/quote]ok i wld expect

fxuser:
Dealing with a pull back
- prices must retrace , its normal
- a retrace is not a reversal , learn to differentiate
- no likes to see paper profit disappear (don't work ur self up, it happens)
- wen paper profits become paper loss it causes emotional discomfort (deal with it early on)
- if u are hating ur position, reduce it, if u still dont like d position , keep reducing it
- if your plan was to hold forever , den u shud not be looking at prices
- fret not ! pull backs dont go on forever , however they provide great entries
- remain patient

Hello Chief

i guess your above comments speaks to the chart in link below (also by you some few weeks back)

are we to take it that the "retracement" had turn to "reversal" if the 36000 level is broken?

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_77eb8632382a8c9d9729dee4fb7b3d16.png

N.B i had not seen anything from the fundamental side (macro economy) which indicates that the drivers of recent rally had failed or is failing, just want to feel what the technical side is indicating

FLAKARIBE:
2006 2.5= cheaper running cost and good hands on @ladipo.
2007 3.2=fuel consumption is more, but remember also except engine size so many other things affect fuel consumption..but not as bad as people would say.
Why I prefer 08 3.2 and above, is that 07 3.2 was it's first intro, and usually if they are bugs/errors are worked on, corrected for subsequent models. But it, s OK too.
Still better msg than v8.
V8 I love, would def own one for travelling interstate...(men of underworld looking for who to chase and rob)

ok chief appr8 ur response

emmanuelewumi:
Amen, the guy increased his holdings when Zenith was between N11 and N15

Guess this is why the spread btw GTB had widened over the last 12 - 18 month

fxuser:
loll
nice
- further pull back expected
- look at the monthly chart , price trading below prev monthly close !
- first time in over 5 months , price unable to break above prev month close
see: https://invst.ly/4rrwv
- i prefer the access chart set up


Dis:
Reduced exposure , taken profits here.

thank you appr8

Thank you

i wld still w8 for d ogas

@ fxuser @ bearbullmkt

kindly help with UBA technicals / charts and interpretation of same

thank you

austinkenneth:
austinkenneth:
Progress in currency liberalization has always happened when Buhari was away.

Now he is away and people are are anticipating that the system has been loosed from its strong moorings (shackles).

Lets all stay put. We may have an Egypt loading. I'm disappointed mainly because the lower the index stays the better for me so that I can load more before the eventual devaluation. But all the same, lets enjoy the ride.

A pullback may happen if the foreign investors are not Ok with the floatation.

But see below what happened in Egypt and judge for your self whether it is not worth it playing this MMM.

Don't come here to say you JOed and missed out.

Egypt

1st Nov. 2016: EGX 30: 8,448
3rd Nov. 2016: Egypt devalues/floats currency
13th Nov. 2016: EGX 30: 10,917
30th Nov. 2016: EGX 30: 11,453
Current EGX 30: 12,934

Being in the market 2 weeks after devaluation/ floatation is key.

This is going to happen here in naija and is going to be the most important event this year.







Hey folks.... Remember the above posts.

It's been awhile. I went away because I felt I shouldn't be watching my assets minute by minute, hour by hour

The Naira has effectively been devalued via the NAFEX window and what do we see.... a ~50% jump in ASI before retreating.

Another Egypt has played itself out here...

I made some money...It was like a very sure thing for me. History always repeats itself.

This prediction has been out here several times this year. Hope a few people picked it up.

Please let us always keep our eyes open on this forum. There is a lot of good info flying around here but sometimes haphazardly. Therefore you need to be able to sift through the noise and get the signal.

I have immensely benefited (in terms of money) from ideas on this forums which I got for free.

Happy investing.

I have no clue as to what the next big thing (strategically) will be going forward.... Anyone that has, please let us all know.

my take is that the full effect of devalaution is yet to be seen (though a larger part of it had already impact the market) until the FX rate is unified (we currently have multiple rate of which nafex is part). so with unification pending there is still room for more upward ASI movement albeit not in previous scale

my fear is that maybe d unification had been done last week when FMDQ started allowing banks to quote NAFEX rate for txn just as the NAFEX window opening in April also came like a thief in the night and we didnt see its full effect until mid May.

mayb expert in d house cld come in here

for skye faithfuls

https://www.proshareng.com/admin/upload/reports/SkyeBankBN.pdf


n.b i have no skin in d game

DeRuggedProf:
Is sugar fermenting

lolllllllll

fermenting indeed

OakPearl:
To get the revalued price based on the over 2 billion shares bought back, I will have to gather data on the exact number of shares cancelled, deduct it from their current SO (36.28bn), and call for their PAT, then redistribute the PAT to the reduced new SO.
This will give me the new EPS from which I can work out the revalued price.

Time is not my friend to do that now, but what I have done is a calculation of the fair value using existing data (pre share buy back) in comparison with the four 1st tier banks and as at Friday 4th August 2017, the fair value of UBA is N11.74.

So for a revalued UBA with over 2 billion shares no more in existence, the fair value can only be higher than N11.74.

NB:
Not a buy or sell recommendation please.
Just fundamental intellectual exercise.
The mkt has a mind of its own.

Thank you Chief



i appreciate your response

wld seek out your take when the half year result is out and i have the latest EPS

fxuser:
Zenith
- market maker is very busy today !

hello chief

hw do u mean?


Jim had been shedding weight all day

tot d role is to act as a floor

or do the MM also sell to create exit door panic type

Mpeace:
This could also mean more fx gains for banks ie from official rate of 306/$ to 366/$. Am I correct?

Good thinking

However in terms of overall stock market impact. i think the news while substantial is not as tectonic shifting as the April opening of the Nafex window.

the next news that cld be as tectonic as that is absolute unification of all fx rates


or Ogas in the house what do u think