₦airaland Forum

fxuser:
Chai
soaking that over head loss carrying positions no easy !
bottom buyers are not worried

i sincerely doubt if the battle can be won
so its better to start preparation for a retreat
though for the sake of mysef i wld wish the battle is won
but reality one must face

time to test nerves

lol

the market close May exactly where it opened in January (i.e. 38.2k), meaning it had taken back all it gave in January

coincidence?

TA guys pls help out

TLAX:
A total of 1,141,191,943 units of Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc were done as an off-market trade today at N 53.75 in eight deals.
The deals were negotiated cross deals between Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Ltd as buyer and Rencap Securities Ltd as seller.

Total Trade Consideraton – NGN61.3bn ( $170mn dollars)

Oga TLAX pls clarify

do u mean the deal was done at N53.75 / share? a premium of about 20% to todays price?

RabbiDoracle:
Jollof rice.

While people are running away, some core investors are increasing stake.

Zenith alone today had done trade worth N3.13b also

hmmmmmmm

TLAX:
This is to inform The Nigerian Stock Exchange that Stanbic Africa Holdings Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of Standard Bank Group Limited) and parent company of Stanbic IBTC Holdings PLC (“Stanbic IBTC”), has recently acquired an additional 1,141,191,943 (one billion, one hundred and forty one million, one hundred and ninety one thousand, nine hundred and forty three) ordinary shares in Stanbic IBTC Holdings PLC in an “Off-Market” transaction.
With this acquisition, the total percentage shareholding of Stanbic Africa Holdings Limited in Stanbic IBTC has increased by 11.35% from 53.09% to 64.44% post this transaction.
The above is for information purposes only.

Fortune favours the brave

My Ogas in the house

i would appreciate if anyone help with source for past data on I&E windows daily volume / price

FMDQ only has current (i.e. todays) info

rebekah2011:
Madam, please cool down. The FDIs are not in any Country to do father Xmas. They are here to make money. A number of us do not want to admit to certain things because it is against our stock move. Let us be more cautious so that we are not trapped. There is demand pressure on Forex. Foreign investors will like to repatriate their funds. It will be foolhardy for anyone to ignore the political risk too. Stocks cannot continue to go downwards, it will always rebound at a point. Let's trade cautiously so that our school fees will be moderate and commensurate.

Ongoing is not specific to Nigeria. it is emerging / frontier market related.

it is highly likely that the current sell off is FPI driven (as evidenced by pressure on I&E window)

fundamentally the drivers is a stronger dollar (itself being driven by America first policies) and FED rate hikes (upcoming being priced in). the combo of two is deadly for emerging market because it dampens the allure of emerging market to Global/ Foreign Portfolio Investors (i.e. why go for troubled (emerging) asset when untroubled (US) is offering fair yield, we should remember that what brought them (FPI) to emerging market in the first place was the search for higher yield).

when wld this stop?. fundamentally two suggestive barometer would be (1) If ongoing does not nose dive into currency crisis for emerging market (as a result of fund flows out demanding for FOREX). here i think Nigeria is in a better stead (with reserve of $48-50) but that is if the operator (CBN) does not go into panic mode (by canceling / stifling the I&E window) (2) when emerging market asset yields (interest / dividend payment) becomes alluring again in comparision to US yields. (meaning either price of emerging asset becomes lower at same earnings or earning becoming higher at same price)

putting above in our consciousness could help with better decision making

fxuser:
daily boss

but dont u think its "noise" considering the timeframe?

fxuser:
Trends

- When the 50-day moving average pierces the 200-day moving average in either direction, it supposedly predicts a substantial shift in buying and selling behavior. The 50-day moving average rising above the 200-day moving average is called a Golden Cross, while the bearish piercing is called a Death Cross

- The 20-day moving average commonly marks the short-term trend, the 50-day moving average the intermediate trend, and the 200-day moving average the long-term trend of the market.

- ''most'' not all stocks hv broken all 3 MA's , its one thing to read about such breaks , its another thing to see them happen

For more:
http://www.newtraderu.com/2012/01/24/ten-things-traders-need-to-know-about-moving-averages/

hello chief. please on what timeframe is above? daily? weekly or monthly

skimanski:
Proposed 3 Bedroom Mini Duplex
Building floor Area. 121 Sq.m

GROUND FLOOR
Guest w/c
Main Living Room
Dinning
Kitchen
Store
Home Office

FIRST FLOOR
Master's Bedroom
Boy's Room
Girl's Room
all rooms ensuite.

first time i am seeing a minimalist (121 sqm) from you

i think u shld showcase more minimalist design like this considering the cost of land within ur niche / clientele base

Good job

gloriousdawn:
Net impairement loss on Loan & Receivables for banks is droping significantly.
Remember that this line item have been a major bleeding item for the banks.
2018 looks promising.

Dont shout hurray yet
wait until the results are audited (particular year end audit).
impairment are like bitter pills, u typically dont want to take it except if forced by an external stimuli (auditors / regulators)
so be cautious on the "promising outlook"

Jejebaba:
Flat result.

yeah flat
if no improvement by mid year (i.e. still flat)
then final result might not be more than last year which cld also imply no growth in dividend payment (except dividend payout ratio is altered)

rebekah2011:
I am a he ooooo. Have it here. http://www.gtbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FY2017_InvestorCall.mp3

Thank you i appr8

sorry for the mix up

rebekah2011:
I doubt this. I listened to the call Conference of both banks after the release of their Q4. You cannot but be impressed by the way Gtbank clearly outlined their direction for 2018.

Ma

i wld appr8 if u can oblige the transcript (or a link to same) of the GTB conference call

rebekah2011:
https://nairametrics.com/nigerian-firms-may-get-foreign-backing-to-acquire-2bn-stakes-in-petrobas-africa/ Is oando buying this?

shey u wan kill Wale niii

he neva comot for the wahala of life and death wey him dey u dey ask am to buy another asset.

u wicked ooooo. or na like so u hate d guy reach.

d last one he bought he neva swallow am finish after more than 4 years

u a truly a wicked somebody

DOLLARTEX:
PLS if you know anybody that has oando,up to 2m units,that wants to sell fast at 7naira or more~let him sell it.it is none of my business.happy weekend people!

hello chief

wld appr8 if u oblige the insight that informed ur statement

mendes911:
Na for Tier 2 banks wey money dey. Both profit and loss, in abundance....

Tier 2 banks are Bae.

my oga i totally agree with you on d bold. though d loss is what pursued me b4 now

Hence i am currently undergoing schooling for tier 2 banks cos na only Agba and fxuser (price movement) approach dey work for that side

and until d schooling is over my kobo no dey see dat side

Agbalowomeri:
I dobale o; Me no sabi anybody anywhere so make I stick to my price movement

Chief Agba

nothing wrong with ur approach (just dat one shldnt dabble into it if you are not adept at it, dats y i am trying to learn it as much as possible for now)

every approach has its upside and downside and each its usefulness to d market. if price movement pple like u dont come into d market hence price discovery might be poor and belaboured.

emmanuelewumi:
L. Toyota Nigeria limited is different from RT Briscoe, I just learnt that Ade Ojo divested from RT Briscoe some few years ago when he couldn't agree with other major shareholders on the way forward for the company.


These other major shareholders were Investment bankers and portfolio managers.

More like his antecedent that i am aware of.

parting ways must have been due to his insistence on doing what is right for d company (hence take longer time to make money) unlike the investment banks and portfiolio managers that wld want quick money which might have eventually kill the coy.

emmanuelewumi:
The man is now close to 80 years, he is represented on the board by his son.

He is also in Eterna oil and Meristem group ( stock brokers, Registrars, Trustees, Asset management, investment banking) and a lot of unquoted investments that are generating steady cash.

ok thanks for the info

TLAX:
Banks with street smart managers will make money most of the times because they see opportunities many seasons before others do. In 2016 they made money on FX and people were concerned about 2017. In 2017 they made money from Govt. securities and people are concerned about 2018. In 2018 they will most probably make money from loans granted to the premium borrowers while the usual laggards will come mid year or last quarter and create loans that will go bad.

In business school, they thought me to take courses based on professors and not course contents. Forget the bank names and invest in managers that have a track record and system of making money in this market. If they stumble, it will hardly be material.

i totally agree with you smart bank managers wld always make u money

however next meal might already be cooking from corporate bonds (e.g. Dangote is already preparing a 300b meal) the small snag is spread might come with some risk and not as wide as former FG Tbills

RabbiDoracle:
Since we are small money players, na tier 2 be our home o. So na to wait for them at 80kobo and hammer.

Una wey dey trade in billions can continue in your tier 1.

my chief
where the billion dey?

but i claim am.

my running from tier 2 is from previous experience (cos of their immunity to all known projection)

TLAX:
@Bolded....Discipline really? What happened to his own company RT Briscoe? How did it turn out? He is still in Custodian though.

RT briscoe was a competitor i think he bought in other to kill it for his cash cow Toyota Nigeria continue to thrive (my take from hindsight i cld b wrong though) jst as accused of coca cola did to some local bottling companies some few years back

the downside is, if that is what he truly did he wnt b losing anything cos as an insider he must have taking advantage to get his share of the dying coy and those who suffer wld be minority shareholder.

my knowledge here is limited (cos RT Briscoe had never been of interest to me so i had never paid it more than a passing look) so you might as well be right

RabbiDoracle:
If these banks (Access and UBA) are like this, what will be the fate of the tier 2 banks?

i dont do tier 2 (they ve taught me enough lesson)

so i dont really care for the results for now

except something extra ordinary happens in that space

RabbiDoracle:
When doing comparisons like this, don't look at figures only. Convert it into percentages.

Example : Do the following

Parameters 2017. 2016
Ratio of PBT/net interest income
Ratio of PBT/net int. Income after impairment
Ratio of PAT/ net interest income

Etc.

With ratios you will be able to see percentage differences rather than just looking at figures in billions.

I understand that there is no distortion in trading income and impairment as could be seen in other banks.

Use percentages and tell.me what you see.

as said earlier wld take a deeper look at the big four later (9-5 job is quite tasking). for now just looking at the obvious (figures) and noting key take aways (which cld change with deeper dive). that is why i said i wld appr8 ur perspective.


However as u am also concern by the sustainability of the banks profit going forward that is why my quick check is zeroing in on the key line income NI vs Trading (tbills and fx derivative) as a rough guage of how sustainable their result are

currentprice:
I agree. If the performance is for real. Custodian have no place below 10

That is the discipline the likes of Ade Ojo (Elizade ) can bring into a coy. im not sure if he is still there though

my phobia for insurance didnt make me pay it too much attention which might change soon if i get the time to scan through its books for some years back

RabbiDoracle:
Is this market marking (MM) not manipulation?

Season 2.

Market Making is not peculiar to a stock. i think its something put in place by NSE for every stock (kindly correct me if i am wrong) so it doesnt convey any advantage on any stock, however im not sure if this is same practice on other exchange. My personal opinion is that it distort price discovery , just like the 5% movement range.

however that is my personal opinion but since its something that is put in place by NSE itself i wld just have to live with it if i want to play in the market.

RabbiDoracle:
Nonsense result.

Just tell me how they will surpass this result when there is no high Tbills rates seen in 2017

How do u mean nonsense result

would appr8 if u are precise which part (or is it whole) is nonsense so we can all learn

for me the Op exp is quite high and it is a negative

however unlike ur statement this bank was able to generate MORE of its revenue from traditional banking (i.e. lending, i.e. NI after impairment) and even grew same compared to last year by abt 27% (174b compared to 137b). Trading income (TBILLS and FX derivative) cant be said to be major at 49b (2017; 43b- 2016) versus 174b from NI and is even more stable in comparision to last year figure .

i think UBA shld be able to sustain this result going ahead (bar any surprise from impairment)

wld appr8 ur pespective.

n.b im here and not intending to either buy or sell at current price range wld rather collect my dividend and see how scenario unfolds going forward which might change my perspective

PharmAlfred:
UBA did well than Access Bank when you compare margins. UBA took lesser impairment, (correct) giving out better dividend (correct) and more efficient (not totally correct check growth in op exp).

Though result still fell short of expectation. Zenith Bank is the king this year. Emefiele might be helping Zenith sha. Emefiele and Jim Ovia alliance.

Up next, tier 2 banks and First bank.

Overall however its beta than Access if u consider that PAT also grew albeit just by upper single digit unlike decline in all of ACCESS (PBT / PAT / OCI) and there is no OVERSIZE FX (derivative) income coming to the rescue (like ACCESS)

Although OCI fell as spotted by Oga Wanajo (im would only be concerned about this if this income line (i.e. OCI) is distributable which i doubt, as i think its largely accounting entries).

i doubt if UBA mm wld be as efficient as Access if it face similar avalanche on Monday.


N.B i hold both

wld take a closer look later in d day

fxuser:
the longer the time frame , the more the ''potency'' but it's never immediate
on d other side , a positive div on d lower time frame helps to show bearish fatigue in d short term

Thanks chief appr8

Agbalowomeri:
On 1st of April

i beg no kill me
they might even do it COB on 31st March