₦airaland Forum

onegentleguy:
NOT saying FLOURMILLS could go on sale.
...was ONLY having a tentative view of things from a price VALUATION perspective.

It is well !!

Chief i know you didnt say so

what i stated are my opinion also and not fact

was only trying to rub minds with you and would wish some other knowledgeable pple wld join maybe unique perspective cld come therefrom

robobo:
i doubt this also if you take ownership structure into consideration
was easy for Dangote cos his hand were in other pies
the only possibility of this happening is if d sales wld only be for the Flour business of FMN
remember FMN is much more larger than the flour business alone
however i totally agree with you on the price perspective

Furthermore my fear really is for FMN on how it wld cope with a competitor of OLAM calibre in the Flour space
Startegically it wld rather make more sense for FMN to become a little more bigger in ready for competition with Olam
so i see more consolidation in that industry (FMN swallowing smaller player) though there is a major constraint of Cash for FMN presently cos they are just deleveraging there balance sheet

onegentleguy:
Instead of worry about a missed opportunity, why not think about what might likely present itself as ‘the next big fish’.
Think about this; If OLAM could afford to pay a supposed approx. N25-26.5 valuation (a possible 125% ROI from current mkt price), for a non-mkt leader in the flour business sector, then what would they have possibly paid for the mkt leader- FLOURMILLS?
I think FLOURMILLS @ the present price of N16.40 might just be the likely next big fish.
Believe I mentioned that here recently when I posited a N16.5 intrinsic value for FLOURMILLS.
…Its presents a good MoS discount to tap from.

But then again, due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.

i doubt this also if you take ownership structure into consideration
was easy for Dangote cos his hand were in other pies
the only possibility of this happening is if d sales wld only be for the Flour business of FMN
remember FMN is much more larger than the flour business alone
however i totally agree with you on the price perspective

Agbalowomeri:
Dangote bought back DF at N3ish
Now selling at N26

u forgot he had sold some part to Indomie noodles last year

so definitely it wld be more than N26

Though the N26 wld be less current debt according to d bulletin

yok:
RE: SELLING OF DANGOTE FLOUR TO OLAM

Interesting development. If Olam is buying the Flour arm, I will not be surprised if Olam equally go for Dangote Sugar soon.

Let us keep watching.

CAUTION: This is just my personal opinion. It is not news or fact.

i doubt though cos of sentimental value

Sugar was where Alhaji started it all and so he might find it hard letting go, plus he still has a dominant market share in sugar (abt 35-40%) unlike Flour where his market share was even below 10%


However what might propel his action (towards divestiture) might be his further foray into heavy industries (cement and now petroleum / petrochemicals) this end are capital intensive but with large margins and fit more into Alhaji penchant for monopoly or near monopoly

radautoworks:
ROFLLLLLL. You're way overthinking this. Will do a visual inspection for free. If anything pops up that might require extra charges, we get your permission before we go ahead. Somewhere on the site is a sample of our complimentary diagnosis sheet.

Recommend you book an appointment through the website and show up on time because we've been experiencing 2-3 how wait times just to get your car in.

.

ok wld do that

thank you

radautoworks:
https://www.mrtransmissionmilexnigeria.com/free-performance-check

Thank you mada

i have gone through ur site and realised that along with taking the freebies of ongoing free performance checks and free diagnostics[b] i would also like to do a complete drive train check and steering / suspension check[/b] hence i wld like to now if along with this extras there is any materiel change to bolded below


Oil 8 qt (N29,010) replace in 5,000 miles or 6 months whichever comes first
Filter N3,668
Labor N3,000
Diagnosis free
Time 40 mins -1 hour 20 minutes with full diagnosis
N35,678 plus taxes approximately

thanks

n.b. intend coming in on saturday

radautoworks:
Hello,

I assumed 3.2 l engine.

Oil 8 qt (N29,010) replace in 5,000 miles or 6 months whichever comes first
Filter N3,668
Labor N3,000
Diagnosis free
Time 40 mins -1 hour 20 minutes with full diagnosis
N35,678 plus taxes approximately

ok thanks appr8 however kindly clarify due you mean the drivability and transmission diagnoses are also free?

Mcy56:
Lol. You know I didnt even notice that, thought its one Seun11 that used to post here.
That kwesion na from oga on top to my ogassss on top here.
Oga Kolaish come and carry your kwesion from Oga Seun.

Dont mind seun he is in stealth mode or cant you decode

he is a succesful tech guy and he suddenly becomes very interested when one of the top mismanaged public tech coy is being offloaded, dat sure tells u something is in d offing. yoruba wld say to ba ri agbalagba to n sare losan gangan. ti inkan ko ba n le dodan ni wipe o n le inkan. (if u see an elderly man running furiously in mid afternoon you can definitely be sure that if something is not pursuing him he is definitely pursuing something)

n.b please not a buy recommendation becos even if i am correct wld not touch d thing with a long pole cos i like my life slow and steady and not fast and furious

radautoworks:
Hello,

It depends on what you want. We have a complimentary visual check of suspension, trouble codes and fluids. Most oil changes excluding materials are N2,500 and so are most diagnoses without service.

Hello Madam

Guess u meant the first below is complimentary with the oil change in which case i wld also b looking at the whole of second (with particular emphasis on the front wheels / steering ) along with the oil change for a volvo xc90 2007

what wld this cost (using your brand vs using castrol) and how long wld it take (in hours / days cos i dont stay in dat side of town)



n.b.sorry cldnt get to attach some of ur docs seen on other threads but i meant the one termed complimentary check and drivability- transmission

rebekah2011:
The loss in UACN is due mainly to Livestock and UPDC. In fact, UPDC going concern is in doubt. I wonder how the company found itself in the kind of situation it is at present. A dividend is declared out of retained earnings. The retained earnings of the coy must still be in positive. So they are in order if they choose to do so. However, the company needs all the cash it can find anywhere now to continue to get out of the dire financial difficulties they have found themselves.

One of the reason UPDC is in dire strait is because they are focused on a market niche with very limited customers. (uppmarket / upper middle class estate development) they failed to realise that while that market might be buoyant and active when they set out in early 2000s (due to a very dearth of such estate then plus the petrodollars that flowed around same period which were the key drivers then) that market has since get saturated and on the verge of non existence. Property development still remain lucrative in the country u just need to know which market to target

The hot property market now is mid / lower mid that comes with some form of financing (either spread for multiple years like 3-5 years after substantial upfront payment e.g. 40-50% or that in which developer co partner with mortgage banks to finance offtakers).

with UPDC size , brand equity, and reach i wld have expected them to be leading in this new market space but they choose to be like a dinosaurs that is focused on the past

[quote author=RabbiDoracle post=77139186]I didn't know you were an investor. Nice one bro.

Most people don't understand how this game works. You just summarized it.

For those who don't know, if he bought at 24 for example and he got N2.5 in 2017 year end, got interim (N0.25) for 2018 and now getting N2.5 again for 2018 year end, this shows that he has collected N5.25. when you less 10% WHT, his final amount collected so far from the bank is N4.725.

This shows that gradually his purchase price of the stock is gradually falling from N24 to ~N19.3. this has given him rest of mind and it has also saved him brokerage fees by jumping in and out of stocks.

If stock market remains irrational longer than he remains solvent, say in the next 3 years, he will keep collecting N2.475 (if you take 10% WHT out of N2.75 yearly dividends). In that next 3 years, this man should have got additional N7.425 as dividends. Net this amount from the N19.3 net purchase of his stock, you will have a final value of N11.875

If he decides to sell at N24, you may say he is losing because he bought at N24 and selling at N24. But he has got so much from dividends. If he sells above, he has made more profits.

So bro, you are on the right track. Keep it up.

But once there is madness of the herd in bidding prices too high, you sell off and move on.[/quote]

Nice one chief

Wld appr8 if u oblige parameters / metrics u use in determine bolded

mendes911:
Boss, I believe that without these FPI coming back to participate, NSE will go down.

People think that rolling out of policies will bring them back but they have seen how many policies that have been rolled out the past 4 years, so they are not really interested.

I see them coming back when we hit a very low level or maybe floating of our currency (or any other changes relating to foreign exchange).

I became very afraid when market refused to react very positive to Zenith Bank 2018 FY result.

I could be wrong though on my assumptions but that's the position am willing to take for now.

Boss u a not wrong the NSE is not going anywhere except fund flow back from the FPI

The catalyst that could propel them back are also as highlighted above though it left out there search for better yield

Mayb what happened today (the Fed calling off rate hike for the rest of the year) as well as yield in nigeria fixed income space trending lower could help swerve some of the recent inflow in the I&E window to the NSE. if not it is to thy tent o isreal

radautoworks:
Good morning, all fluid specs below. Yes, definitely need to service it and also recommend a full diagnostic to see if there are any underlying issues and what kind of service to need. It might just be oil and filters or it could be spark plugs, etc. You'll also find out if it's been abused and you need to compensate with a different oil from spec.

Hello Madam

what does your full diagnostic covers

and what is the cost for servicing (excluding materials cost) and full diagnostic?

phemmie06:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/25047_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2019.pdf

thank u appr8

Hello , somebody should kindly favour me with the 2018 full year result for UCAP

Thank you

TLAX:
Maybe. Maybe not. Its been on the rise since Nov/December with occasional pullbacks.

I did not noticed that (since Nov/Dec part). In that case my thesis was wrong.

you ve spoken well the thing is only for speculators.

the only positive fundamental news that cld possibly come out of it is mayb they finish /pay down substantial on the huge debt incurred to close the COP deal. apart from that no other positive in the near horizon.

in any case make them push the thing more mayb i can use that opportunity to claw back some losses incurred on the portion already willed to my third generation

TLAX:
People are messing with the stock. Where did the 11 million offer earlier in the day vanish to. Meanwhile it dropped to N6.40 around midday.

If you are an investor....stay clear.

If you are a speculator.... some acceptable returns is still possible at current price level.

mayb the rally was because it has become obvious that Volpi guy (Atiku) did not win which could strengthen Wale's hand a little bit as per the London court case Wale had with Volpi on Oando debt / control

mendes911:
Maybe he's referring to that 15% drop in gross earnings.... That's not really a good signal. Maybe an earlier written off debt was recovered that improved their PAT at the end of the day and there's no guarantee that it will keep happening. So growth in gross earnings is really important. Maybe we will learn more when the report is fully digested. We are all just sipping through for now.

Oga Mendes

i think the 15% drop in revenue (vs lower interest expense) is even a good thing if looked at critically from banking business perspective

Technically what it means is the Zenith shed more expensive deposit (i.e.the loss in more revenue that could have come from putting this expensive deposit to use versus the higher interest income they would have paid on this expensive deposit hence there interest expenses being lower because they let the expensive deposit go)

but i might be wrong though as we wait for conference call for better explanation

TLAX:
CAVEAT TO NSEMPA MEMBERS

Just so that we can move forward to the next interesting thing in the market this week:

1. Any stock you decide to buy or sell is solely (i.e. 100%) your responsibility. This responsibility cannot be outsourced to other parties in your network or chatroom, no matter how noisily they have spoken for or against such stocks.

2. Nobody can tell you with certainty the price direction of the market or individual securities in the market; not even award winning technical analysts. At best, what they do is guess the direction. Your reliance or non reliance on this "guess" no matter how nosily it is promoted is your sole responsibility.

3. To stand any chance of success in this market, you must have to do your own reading and research and make up your mind on which stock to bet on. It sounds simple but it takes some work. Do you know why? Research has identified stock market operations at near the top of industries with greater number of charlatans and quacks peddling tips that false. Somebody once shared a link on it here, right on this thread.

4. We are in a public faceless forum and this is to encourage everybody to air their views/opinions in a safe secure environment. Some push their views more aggressively than others but are not able to force anybody to act on them. If you act on those views therefore, it remains your responsibility as you did this without coercion and have not done your due diligence like you should.

5. Finally, name calling is a no-no. We can have very strong views but name calling just seems to belittle the person doing the name calling. Same thing as innuendos in an adult forum.

hw i wish i can like this post more than 1 time

TLAX:
I don't think it is. I am not a client. I met them once in an investors conference and asked to be added to their list. If you know any of their sales people (i.e. equity sales) you can ask them to add you as a prospective client.

Thanks appr8 wld explore that

TLAX:
Its not on their website. Its in the daily summary/outlook sent to their mailing list.

Thanks

is mailing list restricted to clients? cos entry balance for SIBTC is a hurdle (though im positive it worth it cos dey a market movers so it wld come with lots of insights)

TLAX:
FROM ANALYST

[b]NIGERIA: +2% on $22m - funny how you spend Dec/Jan looking for true and concrete catalysts to bring-back momentum in NG-EQTY: is it political-momentum? better traffic at the Apapa-port?...strong consumer-demand from the North? or maybe a 'unification' of the many FX-rates?...NO! You just need one large GEM fund looking for GTB/ZENITH (you know, the demographic dividend...) and the rest of the mkt calling 'fool' and providing tons of supply...so, ADTV in Lagos has gone 3x in less then 2wks, lcls are starting to 'chase' the banks' perf (only marginally though, still <10% of flow but >90% of the noise...) and a couple of old-skool Africa funds 'doing the value switch' (e.g. sell GTB at P/E 6x vs buy UBA at P/E 3x...). And I love it...sky is the limit...don't forget...as the WRAP has been telling you since mid-'18...GTB/ZENITH can do very well under macro-duress...just don't ask for a reasonable catalyst...GTB solid just <39 on $6.1m in intl/intl crosses (one large buyer) - note that o/night we are FIRM blk-sellers for 60m GTB...going, going... ZENITH stable at 25 on $4.4m, once again, same large buyer (and a couple of lcls at the margin) and a few intl-sellers... DANGCEM busy as well and driving Index up with a +2.3% jump to 189.30 into-close, although most flow was intl/intl at 185. Tier II banks also saw some action...ETI +3% on $940k, UBA -60bps on $890k, ACCESS +1.4% on $980k, DIAMONDB unch on $850k.[/b][i][/i]

Hello Boss

i have checked through the SIBTC site but could not find the info

wld appr8 if u can provide a link

TLAX:
SIBTC.

ok thank you

TLAX:
From an Analyst to give perspective on activities of last few days.

NIGERIA: +30bps on $34m - dominated by GEM-bids on GTB and ZENITH - would be misinterpretation to say 'demand has returned in NG-banks' - as we only see two natural buyers out there (this has been the case for last 3x days) but they have made a lot of noise calling all brokers and as you know in Lagos 'momentum begets momentum' and lcls might decide to join in (8x days from elections)... GTB was limit-up yday as supply was thin but same large seller that has dumped stock in 2018 was back today - hence we saw $7.8m at 38.65. ZENITH traded $10.1m at 25 - but closed offered at 24.40. UNILEVER unch at 37 on $5m (Frontier-b/GEM-s) with cross early in session. UBA +4% and closed at 7.65 after trading mostly between 7.40-.50.

Morning Chief

wld appr8 if you oblige me with the source of this news

onegentleguy:
I believe the Qualification date SHALL BE ON OR BEFORE TUESDAY THE 5TH DAY OF MARCH 2019. ...which doubles as the day of the court ordered meeting of holders of fully paid ordinary shares of both DIAMOND and ACCESS bank.
The time of the meeting has been changed from 10 am to 1 pm. ...however, the date remains the same.
The interpretation of this is that an investor will need to hold a stake in DIAMOND at least on or before that date to qualify for the 7 for 2 equity conversion in ACCESS and the N1 cash consideration.

I have since given guidelines to this and more in my previous post here.
U may wish to read through the link below for further guidance.

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/24933_ACCESS_BANK_PLC._CORPORATE_ACTIONS_FEBRUARY_2019.pdf

Hope this helps.

Boss

what do u think of the Carlyle Group disposition to this Diamond -- Access merger. I mean from your perspective how much of a SPOILER can they be considering that they were resistant in allowing this sale and they hold up to 17.7% of Diamond (largest single shareholder). wld appreciate your perspective

Oga CurrentPrice / Agbalomeri wld appr8 ur perspective too

RabbiDoracle:
Na today we don dey hear this language of war

What if a politically exposed person is selling to do final funding of the campaign for his boss?

Even with the bad news about Nigeria, lots of people that understand and knows what's up are on PROFIT. So money will be made when you look and choose carefully.

Nothing to fear.

.


Oga BullBear

Please what says the technicals on UBA across (on daily/weekly& monthly)

wld appr8 if u help out please

PharmAlfred:
The market slumped today but Sterling Bank got stronger. What is happening in Sterling Bank can only be explained by insiders.
I am sure @Currentprice will tell us it is overpriced.

I believe the sell pressure on UBA could have been precipitated by 2 things; 1. FPI wanting to exit the market at all cost. 2. A really bad news is on the way. If it is 1, then we are safe but if it is 2, expect a further decline.

further

why would an FPI w8 till now to exit??

currentprice:
Lol... nothing wrong with UBA, it end of the month balancing things

i call chibuling earlier to load or miss out again

Boss

That volume is scary for an end of month thing particularly when the monthend is not major (quarter/biannual/annual) plus most of the transactions were at the retail end (only one cross which is dat 50m). i pray u a right anyway

onegentleguy:
Saw it too Sir !!
Perhaps those who know the TRUE value of things 'are back in the palace'

Regards.

The TA guys wld say price precede news

im sure some news is coming into the market soon (cld be positive / negative)

how d price behave 2moro cld b an insight to the direction of the news but todays price action doesnt portend positive (in fxuser voice high volume mixed with deep drawdown in price) though if it close above wavg for d day cld signal shakeout as posit by CP

any body see that single 50m unit of UBA that exchange hand at 7?
sure it a cross cos it was not reflected on the bid and offer before then

mendes911:
Boss, no official platform per se (none that I know of but that doesn't mean that none exists). I rely on those occasional updates from CBN and unconfirmed sources.

CBN has the attitude of celebration once forex inflow starts increasing, hence they quickly announce once that happens.

The only official source as regards forex is our foreign reserve and that is available on CBN website.

ok thank you i appr8 for response. wld also look out for the CBN briefing in addition to other sources