₦airaland Forum

stcool:
If it is N26 and above... I will make a kill. If it about waiting for payment. I base in Lagos I go pack to the registrars office and I sabi shout well o! dem go think say na be the highest shareholder!

Anyways at this price, I am willing to wait. Where am I rushing to?

stcool:
My Oga,
No be say I must buy o! But this MTN listing be like NAHCO that year. The money I made from the IPO, bonus and price appreciation that record is hard

I will try my luck tomorrow, if I no see buy I go wait. Meanwhile Oga abeg help me look DF well, the way I dey load am fear they catch me.

I am confident of N21-N25 or is there anything I am missing. If Olam can pay that I will be almost OK for the year.

RabbiDoracle:
Yes o.

And with the way the market is, there is money everywhere. So keep packing. And when the oyibos wake up, you will be in Bora Bora sending your sell mandates and sipping coconut water. Don't forget your sunglasses then

RabbiDoracle:
Your call on leaving it alone is the same I have.

In the Serengeti the best catch is gotten when you stalk and Chase with all animals unaware.

Now everyone is looking and wanting to jump in. I usually stay out.

People can make money from the stock but there are other tested companies out there trading at a discount. I cannot come and kill myself.

RabbiDoracle:
Don't mind him.

Q1 2019 PAT was N48.4b.

Try and extrapolate this to 4 quarters. And it could come lower possibly.

I don't do IPO. I wish people can learn from times before 2008 crash.

But wetin concern me. No be my money!

pluto09:
I cannot understand while all this analysts are so fixated on EBITDA.

What I want to know is PAT, eps and p.e.
With that I will be able to do my own assessment of the right value for mtn.

Agbalowomeri:
Reporter robobo reporting life from the battle field

Kagame:
FBNH has like another 3-4 yrs before it fully recovers.Normally,if you are an SIB and your NPL is above 5% upwards to alarming levels,CBN will invite you to present a 4yr remediation plan which I think FBNH did in 2015.

As you rightly pointed out ,the books will improve this year but that’s just halfway through the journey.This year,FBNH will likely write off over N300bn from their loan books due to Atlantic energy. For proper context, FBNH has made total NPL provisions of over 500bn since 2015 but yet, this huge amount only gives just over 80% (about 70,if you use IFRS 9) coverage ratio, this is really unprecedented in the history of Nigerian banking industry, smaller banks would not survive this ~ the rot is really deep.

If you look at their 2018 audited results, you will realize that NPL increased to about 29% from 25% . Why? The implementation of IFRS 9 which provides for proactive loan provisioning.With this accounting standard, there’s another N200bn of loans which has been moved to stage 2 (payments of interest and principal missed for 9months or so).

With the possible write off this year, NPL ratio will come down to manageable single digit but the bank will require more capital which means they will have to retain a lot of their profits and pay less dividend for a few yrs cos they can’t even come to raise Tier 1 from the market ~ they already have the biggest number of shares among listed banks and the current pricing is not favorable. As a matter of fact , the GMD of FBNH admitted that the bank (First bank) will not upstream dividend to the holding company except they make a significant recovery from their bad loans.

I have a positive bias for the current management, they are not afraid to let you know how bad things are ,which is good cos they were hired to clean up the mess. I believe in a few yrs when they are done with the transformation, the bank will come out stronger and will reward investors by way of capital appreciation and dividends . But there’s something very Nigerian (apologies) about FBNH that tells me that in a few years, probably in 5yrs time, after the current management might have left, the bank will return to old ways of sharing the “national cake” like we do in Nigeria.To avert this , the culture of the bank needs to change to one of excellence and efficiency like their peer GTB.

On current prices,if I’m to invest in any Nigerian bank with the aim of making my return in less than 10yrs , I’d put my money in Zenith ~ heck it’s 14% dividend yield and they are sitting on tonnes of cash by way of shareholders funds, I only worry a little about their corporate governance and their inability/reluctance to crack retail banking.That explains why investors price them a lot lesser than GTB.

If I want to make my return in 15yrs without checking the NSE everyday and probably retain some hope of transferring equity to my grandchildren,then GTB is it. But it doesn’t come cheap because ,no be only me dey see am, institutional investors wan die there!

There could be other good banks, but I’m sorry they are not on my radar for now.

Apologies I had to quote you with this long epistle, I only wanted to write briefly about FBNH but I found myself delving to other things.

BrokerHaruna:
If the sell pressure on UBA continues as, it may hover between 4 to 5 naira this week. TA shows sustained bear regime. Scary

RabbiDoracle:
More people should sell below 6.

People should position for year end. 85 Kobo / less than N6 gives a good DY

Thank you sellers. Sell more tomorrow @ N5.4

stcool:
And you believe a fake news that did not come out until CBN governor was nominated for a second term, you think Buhari will listen to that Bullshit.

Una go dey alright las las.

OakPearl:
All that is happening is typical of the stock market all over the world.
It is the market manifesting a mind of its own that we all should be used to.
Nothing new.
If you are a jijoist, hold break.
If you are a long term investor, food don done.
Oyonburu na turn by turn.

tritritri:
better rain ooh....everyone is no where to be found.

Opiletool:
Go to YouTube bro. His albums are there. And if you wanna download, I'd advice you get a YouTube download app like Tubemate (you won't find it in playstore or apple store) and download pure versions. Those ones on naija music sites have been altered with those annoying intros, except for tooexclusive.

Happy Birthday Brymo. Always and forever a fan of yours.

LeafMeAlone:
Brymo, real name Olawale Ashimi is a Nigerian folk/pop/afrobeats singer

He was born on the 9th of may 1986 to a carpenter father and petty trader mother

I'm still hoping he will bless us with a track featuring ASA

Let us celebrate this musician who carved a niche for himself, stuck to it and has been giving us great music back to back


More on his bio here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zx6WBd9khg0

rebekah2011:
https://www.mtn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MTN_Annual_Results_Conference-Call-Transcript_07032019.pdf
https://www.mtn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MTN-A5-Results-Booklet_Financial-Section-NO-CROPS.pdf

rebekah2011:
Yes ooooo. Imagine if one can build a tidy and healthy portfolio that return good dividends every year.

rebekah2011:
The stock is valued between 80-85 naira per share. Dangote Cement has about 17b shares and it is selling for N181. The PAT of Mtn Nigeria for 2018 was N453b. It is poised to go higher this year, it, therefore, suggests that the outstanding shares are not too large.

rebekah2011:
Picked small of Zenith at 20.55 today, not bad for a stock that will likely pay N2.80 in 2019. Looking at picking UBA too. N6.50 will be a good price for a stock that will likely pay 85kobo next year.

Tvegas:
This is the defeatist mindset that holds the average Nigerian down, why dont you allow the OP make an attempt first. Except you were making an attempt at sarcasm or some jokes that comment is somehow.

stcool:
I don't know how we can go about this, but i feel through this forum we can make a positive change. Can we have members here register a forum or organisation that would protect the rights of shareholders. I mean most of the irregularities in the market are first pointed out on this forum and we can have a voice that would demand a change and see that this companies are held accountable.

I remember the Oga taking on AIICO on this same issue of taking minority shareholders for granted and other cases that initiated from discussions here. You can imagine if we all join hands to this course, protecting the rights of the common investors. Cases where we need to write this companies we would write them, where protests are needed we come out in solidarity, and if we need to take it up with the authorities we do so as one voice until justice is served.

I am telling you this companies would wake up...and our voices can become very powerful for the next generations!

jamace:
COURTVILLE 20M+ Traded today.

Something is cooking o.

laydap:
Forte Oil might be the next bull .. With the conclusion of the disposal of the Upstream, Foreign and Power Assets and payment of the Special dividend, phase 1 has been concluded.
Phase 2 which is very imminent is the exit of Femi and sale of the remainder of FO (downstream Assets) to the Prudent Energy Group (Ignite). Modelling FO’s potential valuation including using OANDO 49% sale to Helios and the Mobil’s sale to NIPCO, we should have some handsome valuation with good upside to the price FO’s is currently trading at. We may currently be witnessing a "shakeout" after the Q1 result before the acquisition announcement is made soon and the bus takes off..

https://www.pulse.ng/news/local/otedola-sells-off-forte-oil-shares/1jd6l7s

does this modelling take into consideration d size of FO downstream via a vis comparatives? (Onado/ helios & Mobil/Nipco)

wld appreciate if you shed more insight

tritritri:
without general bull transcorp alone cannot last..over 40B OS ...

OakPearl:
Who else sighted those 21m and 24m units block trade on Unilever?

RabbiDoracle:
They seem to be normalizing the yield curve.

Now they want investors to be packing their money into longer dated bonds rather than short term bonds. Soon Tbills (less than 1 year) will not be attractive.

maishai:
After listening to uacn conference call I think whay befall them is about to befall flour mills and honeywell as olam enters the game big time, they complained bitterly about a new competitor in their animal feed market and how this competitor is price cutting them.........

Anyway, the way these companies go about valuation makes me wonder if annual financial statements are true positions of this companies......I can imagine some one buying DF 4 years ago at 0.90k and cashing out #26 in due time(even warren buffet will envy you)