₦airaland Forum

Nigeria is too broke to fund subsidies on imported refined fuel. Falana was wrong to support keeping subsidies in 2012. Had Nigeria removed subsidies and invested in repairing and building new refineries, Nigeria would have been a net exporter of refined oil and petrochemicals products.

Nigeria needs a hydrocarbon tsar to coordinate the industrialisation of Nigeria's oil, petrochemical and refinery industries; this is $200 billion annually if adequately managed. By the end of 2024, Nigeria will have nearly 1.3 million barrels per day refinery capacities equivalent to Singapore's yearly export of $50 billion in refined products.

The government-owned refineries must be taken out of the hands of government officials and listed on the public stock exchange.

The Port Harcourt refinery is undergoing a $1.5 billion upgrade after Italy's Tecnimont was awarded the contract to carry out the work in 2021. The revamp will take 44 months to complete, the oil ministry said in April last year. The Warri and Kaduna Refineries are also being upgraded and rehabilitated. This differs from the wasteful TAM used to siphon valuable funds. Nigeria has a total Refinery capacity of 450,000 barrels per day refinery.

The country is now pinning its hopes of ending fuel imports on a 650,000 barrels per day refinery being built to by Aliko Dangote, Africa's richest man.

In 2012 during the OccupyNigeria protests sparked by the removal of petrol subsidies (which Sanusi helped inspire), Femi Falana told Sanusi at a forum that removing subsidies from petrol would lead to an increase in the cost of transportation, which would trigger inflation that would inflict incalculable hurt on the lives of millions of Nigeria.

misreal:
Nigerians don't trust their electoral process.
Secondly,what is the population of Nigeria compared to the number of voters turned out in Liberia?.
The population of Liberia is 5million, with over 78percent voter turn out, and the population of Nigeria is well over 200million with voter turn out of over 10million..
Wetin I dey talk sef?

Someone anticipated you will come out with this dumb statement

BluntCrazeMan:
..


.
Nigeria is just managing with 29% voters turnout..


Next thing now,, some people will just come out to say that the Nigeria’s 29% is far far bigger than the Liberia’s “meagre” 78%..


That's just it.
Nigerians always loved QUANTITY over QUALITY.

With the fall in the Naira, lack of infrastructure and industrial capacity, Nigeria's GDP has already fallen from $477 billion to $400 billion

Truths9ja:
Chaiii people are wicked oooo. A Nigeria 🇳🇬 lady for that matter. No love here joor

If you are incompetent or lazy, I will report you. There is no one Nigeria in competency.

LeoDeKing:
God bless Nigeria
God bless SW SS NW NE and NC

and SE

YoshihideSuga:
I am not too sure the exact arm of electricity, but the government controls I think transmission. The three divisions aren't fully privatised as stated.

Cc: IbeOkehie

The GENCO cannot even generate the 14,500 MW capacity, so why invest in electricity generation without some control of the transmission?

The electricity privatisation was a farce and has been seen to be a farce over the 10 years of operation, hence my point that you cannot expect a government that cannot manage the basic system of government to manage the privatisation of government assets. The government civil services must first be reformed to be operational before privatisation can be effected.

IbeOkehie:
Rubbish. Stealing happens because the STRUCTURE of the industry provides strong INCENTIVES for such behavior. Privatize all lands and mineral resources in Nigeria and all this theft will drastically reduce.

So you agree that you were wrong in your earlier assessment that there is no stealing.

If I had the time to discuss with you I would also convince you that privatisation, especially in the context of Nigeria is the wrong strategy, a good example is NEPA now called the Power Holding Company of Nigeria, how far has privatisation increased energy production in Nigeria.

Have a good day.

Theunbothered:
We will blame them because they are collecting tax money to spend on prostitutes in New York instead of providing a basic standard of living. It's only in Nigeria that the people are happy and content with living worse than farm animals.

You can blame the politicians for being inadequate and useless when Nigerians spend all their time in churches and mosques asking God to provide.

Nigerians have failed to hold their politicians accountable, so they rule with impunity. Elections are a small part of the democratic process; holding politicians to account is the key part.

TheOldGods:
Nobody is talking about the big Elephant in the room, which is lack of electricity. This week I've spent 58,000 naira on fuel for my generator for work, that is full tank for alot of cars every week, and the car owners are complaining, what about us that need Electricity to work.

I barely get 6 hours of electricity, I tried buying solar, but the conditions are too much, turn off this, turn this on, don't use this bulb. Mehn, plus I can't turn on AC while working.

Since my work is from home I decided to buy a laptop worth 1million here on Nairaland (thanks to Nairaland) just to ease my work, atleat I get 4 hours of break in severe heated room with my laptop.

How else can someone survive in this country with this low electricity, is there any state that is better? Or is it a must I have to travel to another African country just to get simple electricity to work. My generator just went off and my fuel gone, that why I came here to rant. I'm going to buy feul at 615 naira per litre

The big Elephant in the room is why Nigeria cannot produce toothpicks. The lack of reliable electricity and poor road network is the reason why despite 8 years of banning foreign imports, Nigeria cannot industrialized and produce what it consume.

Whalis:
What is actually the problem?
How come a currency that had been relatively stable suddenly become a fallen winter leaf?

Tinubu fire brigade's approach to the problems. He unified the currency without assessing why the previous government had multiple currency windows. Buhari/Emifele didn't have the FX funds to defend the Naira. The economy has no liquidity due to the ongoing oil swaps with foreign refineries. Instead of selling crude oil for FX , Nigeria swapped crude oil for refined oil.

Prof Ken Ife

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5F6OSRmlpY&t=1349s

IbeOkehie:
Nobody is stealing anything. You try to come across as a knowledgeable fellow but always get tripped up by emotional thinking. Economics is about facts, data, probable outcomes from different application of available resources. Stealing what exactly? The industry is operating under rules, regulation and laws that make waste, inefficiency and mismanagement INEVITABLE. The refineries are a simple example. If you want refineries to work, sell everything to the private sector. Simplicita. Instead the APC pretended they were helping Dangote to start a private refinery and ended up buying 20% and probably more of the project. The rules right now MEAN that refineries won't work in Nigeria. Nobody is stealing anything.

Expanding the tax base is NOT done by government taking loans to build infrastructure projects. It's done by PRIVATIZATION and DEREGULATION of the economy. For example, privatizing all the Sports Stadia and deregulating sports in Nigeria will automatically create new tax paying entities. Benue Cement wasn't a taxpaying entity until Dangote bought it from government. Got it?

And your calling Jonathan a coward....and what are YOU, Mr Anonymous handle on Nairaland? When are you going to run for office? Fact is, THE NIGERIAN PEOPLE rejected the withdrawal of fuel subsidies in Jan 2012 and being a democrat, President Jonathan acceded to their wishes. As he should. Every people get the government they deserve.

Good Luck to Nigerians, including brave ones like you.

No one is stealing anything, I think you should do some basic research before responding to comments ...

Elumelu Laments 95% Oil Production Lost to Theft
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/03/18/elumelu-laments-95-oil-production-lost-to-theft

Kyari: Nigeria loses $1.9bn every month to crude oil theft

https://www.thecable.ng/kyari-nigeria-loses-1-9bn-every-month-to-crude-oil-theft

A brave leader would make decisions based on the information that is presented to him; GEJ had the support of his cabinet in Iweala, Maduake and the support of the CBN in Sanusi, but he decided to ignore their counsel for the empty political threats of the trade union, Tinubu and Buhari.

I happened to be at that debate in 2012, and most Nigerians at the debate, agreed that removing oil subsidies was the right decision for Nigeria as long as there was evidence that the savings would be reinvested into education, health care, and new refineries would have been the best course of action.

Privatisation is not always the right panacea for a country. Who will regulate the private companies? The same failed government officials who cannot operate simple government institutions such as shipping ports and customs offices will be expected to regulate the new private institutions.

We have seen the result of selling Ajaokuta and ALSCON to private interest and also witnessed the success of NLNG, where the government has a shared interest with private operators, the government should devise a strategy on how they will depose of refineries and NNPC, Norway is a good example of how to manage your oil industry, Nigeria is not.

nairalanda1:
1.They always have recommended taxes

2.They stood behind GEJ, it is GEJ who decided to take the decision that would get him elected. Same as Buhari did and same as many Nigerian leaders past and present have done.

People like Abacha never removed subsidy, because they knew Nigerians do not like it.

But good economic polices are not what people like.

3. I know you won't love my answer, and probably get annoyed...but it is either we tax 120 million Nigerians....or we take more and more loans.

We don't have a choice or a third way. Fighting corruption would help a lot. AND WE EFFING SHOULD...but the money we get before corruption has its way is already too small, which is why we should treat it as a capital crime.

Either we tax, or we take loans, or we pray oil stays above 140 dollars a barrel for the next ten years, and save half of the money we earn and invest it.

Tinubu can do more ...


Why not stop stealing the oil we produce so Nigeria can sell more oil and gas? A Kyari and his cohort should have been sacked as the GMD of NNPC

Why not stop the insecurity across the country so that Nigerians can return to the farms and grow our foods for consumption and export?

Why not complete the rehabilitation of the local refineries and ensure that they are properly operated so that the country can cut the import of refined oil products and save the limited FX at its disposal?

Yes, expand the country's tax base and take productivity loans to fund infrastructure projects, but don't tell Nigerians that the problem is out of the hands of the so-called leaders who have been selected.

GEJ should have removed oil subsidies, but he was a coward; Buhari should have started fixing the refineries and gradually reducing oil subsidies, but he was also a coward. Tinubu had no choice but to remove oil subsidies because Buhari had exhausted the country's external reserves, now at $3.7 billion.

CodeTemplar:
The world is addicted to debt and not just Nigeria. What makes ours one of the worse is unproductive lifestyle and big-man-ism(showoff).

The world is addicted to production and export. Debt cannot solve Nigeria problems

Dogalmighty17:

BUHARI WAS AN ILLITERATE WITH HIS IMPORT RESTRICTION POLICIES. HE KILLED NIGERIA.
Every economy has things it produces cheaper than other countries. So it is advisable to dwell on what you can cheaply produce and import what another country can produce cheaper. Import restriction policies are failed policies. Nigeria will never be able to produce rice cheaper than India and Thailand can. Restricting imports only forces the prices of inadequate local supply to rise. Just as we have seen local rice do. Multiply this scenario across a number of other sectors and then you understand what damage Buhari really did.

The ban on poultry importation pushed so many people into poultry business. This created a huge demand for poultry feed that the feed making companies in Nigeria still can't meet with. The result, high price of feeds, which leads to high price of birds and eggs at the point of sale. The present price of a crate of eggs is twice what it was at the end of Jonathans tenure.

Nigeria has too many built-in economic efficiencies. We do not have the knowledge base for tertiary industries and secondary even. We can't drive a 21st century economy primarily on subsistence industry. Government can't keep paying lip service to science and technology and expect things should change. It is far easier to steal and which is what our political class have done and keep doing. I have nothing but utter contempt for them.

So you would rather import products that you can produce, then wonder why millions of Nigerians are out of work because there are no jobs.


You would rather waste limited FX importing products that you can produce, so what will Nigeria export for FX to fund the import? The import restriction has witnessed significant investment in meat, poultry, refineries and steel investment, but the lack of poultry feed is a supply chain problem.

Ola9ja23:
Good. Asiwaju is a specialist in the discovering of great talents


Glory be to God
God bless Nigeria

What is his talent? Linking Nigeria's economy to the USA-controlled World Bank to become a primary producer and import-dependent economy is not talent.

NorthernAgender:
He called on the Nigerian government to take sincere steps to end the crisis and expressed solidarity with Palestine.

You see food eat that's why you are doing rally for ordinary Arabs people that hate black. Shame

You wouldn't see them express their solidarity for black Africans being raped and murdered in Darfur by Arabs

Saviourplease:
I added my savings na. About 5M.

I never go go common Benin Republic before

You have a month income of N400k and over 5 million, yet you want to Japa, who will fix Nigeria when the middle class are running away. I am pleased that the British rejected your application and you will now be forced to direct your attention to fixing Nigeria. Good Luck.

How can a man be curious to sleep with a man?

The man is confused and dangerous; the woman has made the correct decision to dump him and run.

Israel formed a rare emergency government with some opposition members on Wednesday to see the country through its war with Hamas.

A “war management cabinet” will be established with three members, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office. They are Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and ex-Defense Minister Benny Gantz, who now heads an opposition party.

Whether you like the Israelis or not, this is what serious governments do. In Nigeria, the government would instead do nothing or be shocked.

This is what serious government does when they are faced with security crises.

nairalanda1:
Am aware of all that. The problem was most of that was fuelled by the oil boom

Until 1982 when the wheels came off with the crash in oil prices.

A big problem with all that industrial development was that the cars etc were being assembled with components from abroad. Once the oil money dried up by 1982 , problems started.

Then the Chinese got in on the manufacturing game. And then in the early 90s the world markets got more open.Meaning our home market got swamped with imports.

Plus subsidies on petrol and co wrecked domestic refining . Raw materials for the textile sector went.

Finally our industrial sector was not a massively exporting and innovative sector, plus we never did finish ajaokuta.

Corruption played it's part,

You are correct the oil boom fuel that investment but the system and infrastructure is still available.

I used to work as an Engineer and during any design we are faced with four design iterations "New" "Reuse", "Enhance" and "Decommission". Jaguar Land Rover is still using the old ERP system built in 1970 called CMM3 against a manufacturing site that is 90 years old. As Engineers, we learned how to use all four iterations to keep the plant going.

The oil is still there but it is being stolen by the local elites, that is a Nigeria problem. The steel infrastructure is still there, but that will require partial privatisation and investment.

The petrochemical infrastructure is there the country presently has a capacity of 1.2 million B/D refining capacity and large gas capacity, but that requires governance and leadership.

Then we have abundant arable land and cheap labour that can be channelled into productive use to meet local consumption and then export.

The reason why the industrial drive failed in the 1980s was because of the overdependence on imported spare parts that required foreign exchange to fund the import.

The failure to develop ferrous (Steel ) and non-ferrous (Zinc, Aluminium, Copper, Chrome ) industries meant for every car produced, the country had to import 98% of the material.

When you consider that Aluminium, Steel, Rubber, Plastic and Glass Windshield account for 90 % of car construction. Had the steel and Aluminium industries been in operation, the auto industry would have continued.


This is a brilliant video on how. South Korea built a shipbuilding industry despite starting in a competitive environment in the 1970s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_u75BlBu5vw

You don't need to be innovative or export-driven to industrialise; Nigeria can start by being low-cost and copying other successful nations such as South Africa and Morroco. Nigeria's first duty is to reduce imports, the country has abundant gas, hydro and wind there is no reason why industrialisation cannot work in Nigeria.

BornAgainCow:
Shut up you twatt. I came from that same UK okay. I know how the system works there. It’s not like there is no corruption it’s not just easily accessible to people of a certain race and social status. If you truly live there then you should know this. so spare me this “holier than thou” attitude okay?

Yes Nigeria is a country where your connections take you far. That’s what I meant by cutting corners. I never mentioned any overt corrupt act but your stupid self just had to come make a clown yourself on my mentions. Lazy? You have no idea who you’re taking to. I run over 6 separate entities in Nigeria now. I will keep cutting corners to make my businesses more prosperous. If e pain you go and jump off Tower bridge. Mumu.

Lazy Nigerian using the race card. Indians are doing very well yet this useless Nigerian who cannot hack-it the UK with all the opportunity and stability believe that his cutting corner strategy in Nigeria is something to be proud of.

BornAgainCow:
Depends on what you went there for. But I can tell you no place like home (Nigeria) at the end of the day.

These advanced countries can turn you into a slave working the rest of your life to pay taxes and service debt without ever experiencing true wealth.

In few short years since I’ve been back to Nigeria I have experienced progress at a rate that would have been almost impossible over there. You see the advantage Nigeria has over those counties is that it’s easier to cut corners here. As long as you have the right connects 😉

Cutting corners is corruption, it is the fundamental reason why Nigeria is a failed state. I'm happy your corrupt and lazy self is enjoying Nigeria, it proves that only the drench of the world can survive in that cesspit called Nigeria.

I live in the UK work 70 hours a week own my own technology business and can not dream of living a chaotic country like Nigeria.

nairalanda1:
The West did not develop Dubai, Dubai developed itself. Ditto Singapore.(Dubai and Singapore used to be part of...the Breetish Hempire).

Nigeria is in a bad state because when we got independence, the focus was on getting welfare based projects for the majority of poor people...while Dubai and Singapore focused on making money via...in Singapore's case, industrialization, and in Dubai's case turning themselves into a money hub with the help of excess money from oyel..and a low population.

Africa is underdeveloped because when we got independent, we had to expand education, health, roads, etc to as many people as possible. The problem was that our revenue was not enough for all of that, so we became loan dependent....and that's where our issues start.

If we tried to take the road Singapore took, any leader trying that would be removed and replaced with someone who would do the above...expand services to all, share money equitably. After all, we suffered and are poor.

You must be very young. In the 1970s and 80s, Nigeria had one of the largest and fastest-growing industrial sectors in the world. The country was on track to be the next Germany. The implementation of the World Bank/IMF Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1985 by the IBB government was the beginning of the end for Nigeria.

Nigeria implemented numerous development plans from the '60s; some of those plans include the development of a $15 billion steel industry between 1979 to 1991 that included the Delta Steel Mill ($2 Bn) , Ajaokuta steel ( $8-10bn), three rolling mills, A tool manufacturing company in Osun state and a metallurgy plant in Enugu state.

By the 1990s, vehicle manufacturing companies like Peugeot, Volkswagen, Leyland, Mercedes-Benz, National Trucks and Steyr, assembled vehicles locally, in partnership with the government, resulting in an annual output of 150,000+ units. However, by 2012, the government had withdrawn from these partnerships, effectively privatising the industry and eroding incentives for government departments – which had been the largest customer segment – to purchase locally assembled vehicles.
https://www.asokoinsight.com/content/market-insights/nigeria-automotive-sector

Over 400,000 Nigerians were working in the textile industry in Northern Nigeria, Nigeria was producing over a million bycicle and White electronic goods were locally assembled.

The problem is a lack of foresight and extreme corruption starting with the Shagari government's and later military government. Corruption is to deep in Nigeria .

EmeeNaka:
E don happen.
Can APC forward this thing to Supreme Court as well?
Atiku should present the affidavit to the Supreme Court, otherwise both Tinubu and Atiku will be sacked as they probably forged their certificate.

Only a fool will trust a Nigerian affidavit

easytig:
Blacks especially Nigerians are the most disorganise human species in the world,oil that we have in abundance is now a curse.why did the British leave sef,if they were still in governance Nigeria will definitely be like Dubai no cap

I doubt Nigeria would be like Dubai if the British were still in Nigeria. The West is not known for developing black nations. They have introduced an apartheid system of government across Nigeria.

Bliss52:
PENGASSAN are one of Nigerias biggest problem

I DPR and DSS start arresting this fueling Station

Kyari is a liar and a fraud

Nigerians stop complaining and stop protesting on the street. Sowere is right only revolution can save Nigeria from these thieves

Guyman01:
This was what Igbos tried for years to enlighten people in the Niger Delta about benefiting from their God given resources, but Lagos Ibadan media rather turned it around and spread the propaganda that Igbos were after the resources which Igbo land is also richly blessed with.
Even under a Yoruba led govt, we can see that the injustices against the Niger Delta continues because these contracts would not have been awarded without presidential approval as Tinubu is the Minister of Petroleum.
Over 35 people were burnt to death in a makeshift refinery in Rivers State and another hundred burnt beyond recognition after a petrol tanker fell due to bad roads.
Then some few northern business men will sign multi billion contracts to maintain pipelines some of which doesn't even generate revenue while the Airforce will be dropping bombs on people working on makeshift refineries and adding to the environmental pollution in the process.

The people you should blame are the useless Niger-Deltan elite wearing top hats and crying for handouts.

Are you aware that in Darfur, there is Arab genocide against black Africans, where rape, racial killing and ethnic cleansing is the mainstay of the ongoing conflict? Yet Africans are concerned with the Palestinian problem.

Where is AU on the ongoing Arab genocide of Black Africans in Darfur.


AU is useless

seunmsg:
He should look for a trustworthy Igbo or south south person for that position. People will read ethnic sentiments into whatever the EFCC is doing under a Yoruba president and Yoruba EFCC chairman.

I don't think he cares.