Let's also keep in mind behavioural economics and the tendency for Nigerians to move like sheep.

Transport prices have gone up today, these include diesel powered vehicles, reflecting Nigerians tendency to move enbloc. Once transport and other things go up then you immediately have increased pressure on prices. Will CBN increase the supply of Naira?

SLS has already warned inflation is coming, though he thinks prices will increase by only 2% from 10.5% to 12.5%. Are travellers facing only a 2% increase in transport today? The govt has a fight on its hands to keep down inflation and by connection a stable FX rate band.

At the end of the day the market will determine the price and I can already see the price band increasing from N163 - N165 to USD1 and moving to something worse. A disciplined govt and CBN can stop inflation but I remain unconvinced.

@DivideUs

USD/Naira was around N155 in Oct and is now around N163 to N165. The impact of petrol subsidy is uncertain at best. Upward price pressure on transport is happening on the streets so inflation may be coming. CBN may be able to curb it but SLS has said he would not sacrifice our foreign reserves.

The trend is not looking good, but my guy - no dey use info from Nairaland annonymous posters to make financial decisions.

But the economy is already at $250 to $280 using 1990 figures when our population was 88.5m. Our population is now 160m people, there is only so much guessing and adapting you can do to update the numbers.

GDP calculation is an art and most countries massage the numbers so it would be interesting to see what number they calculate especially as PDP has an interest in the biggest number so they can borrow and damn us all to hell.

@DivideUs

Exchange rate movement is likely to be against the Naira.

Naira came under pressure in the last quarter of 2011 for various reasons. This led to a depreciation of the USD/N rate.

If inflation kicks in and takes hold then you can expect the US/N rate to trend towards N165 to N170 in the first quarter of 2012 and perhaps trend towards N180/N190 by July.

However, the GEJ admin could surprise us and "conjure" up savings as the assumption is the CBN's reserves would not be used to pay cabals. The money to pay cabals would instead come directly from "we the people" instead of passing "through" Abuja.

I understand though that the FGN is currently sourcing street level combat gear so we are in for a very hellish 2012. This cannot be good for forex.

Ruffians In Suits Keep Stealing.

STEAL

The 'claimed' causes of the leakages that made the subsidy jump from N300bn to N1.3trn have not been closed, sealed or even narrowed so why is GEJ confident that Petrol cost is not going to exceed N140.

Nigeria has never known a president that sooo many people who have met him use "dumb", "dull" and "unimpressive" to describe him. But as people have said this is Nigerians chance to claim back their birthright as "pharoh" is deaf.

He is deaf to our cries to end corruption;
He is deaf to our cries for infrastructure; and
He is dead to our cries for jobs.

If we as Nigerians just vent our anger at each other and Abuja but leave out the National Assembly and state peeps from our wrath then we truly deserve what we get.

Ha ha ha,

People are debating Beaf like he is your elected representative.

Petrol subsidy is gone. Nigeria's elected president, GEJ, has played his card, we either fold and accept or play a counter hand.

I used to debate Beaf and we've exchanged swear words a few times. But the truth is the current system needs to be crashed and crashed in a most extreme way for any real change to take effect. I'm tired of limping along in this current structure like some kind of quadriplegic.

Whatever the true figure of subsidy is, the huge variation in quoted figures shows that the number can be played with. How much does Nigeria even earn annually - from oil, VAT, Agric and other resources and how much of our taxes goes to fund FGN.


If the shock absorbers are not there then "we the people" need to meet our elected representatives on the streets or at the polling booth. In our frustration and anger at Abuja, let's not forget the National Assembly, Judiciary and State level peeps.

The more time spent online debating this, the less time spent offline or elsewhere strategising and implementing real change. For the record I remain unconvinced that the "savings" from Fuel "subsidy" would be used for the benefit of all.

We Nigerians are in for a hell of a ride this year, God be with us all.

@Makonko

I think you are right.

People will make noise and PDP will "reduce" the price from N140 to something above N100 and the populace will go to sleep suffering and smiling.

I think GEJ may be a student of Machiavelli.  On this fuel subsidy thing I've stopped advocating against its removal. I'm now on observer status.  GEJ is the president. If you want cheaper fuel, please engage your state governor to make your state more competitive and independent of Abuja, or to speak to his party in the National Assembly to pass more business friendly laws.

The sooner Govt in Nigeria is shrunk, and Nigerians take back their birth rights the better for us all.

"Im not interested in preserving the status quo, I want to overthrow it"

"Severities should be dealt out all at once, so that their suddenness may give less offence; benefits ought to be handed out drop by drop, so that they may be relished the more".
- Machiavelli.

Me, I can barely afford the new price but "I no wan die. Papa dey for house, mama dey for house"

The Uk adds tax and duty to tobacco in order to finance the NHS and other public goods.

So in effect, health care is partly subsidised by tax added to tobacco.

@topic

Nigeria has some interesting months ahead of us.

Petrol Is Now Going Scarce.

ABUJA

Rebasing per the Reuters link puts it at around $390bn. I've seen figures elsewhere which are more modest. 

GDP calculation isn't an exact science but if we are still using a 1990 base year then the old numbers look seriously outdated.

GDP rebase link:

http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFL5E7MB2D420111111?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

@EktBear

Nigeria's GDP is being recalculated and rebased from the 1990s to c 2008.

Thus the recalculation expects the GDP to be c$350bn. Which experts believe is a more accurate reflection of our GDP.

It was all over Reuters last month.

Lagos GDP is c$54bn. Let's call it $50bn

Budget is N491bn, let's call it N500bn.

N500bn is roughly $3.23bn so round down and you get $3bn.

Lagos state budget is roughly 6% of Lagos's GDP.

In comparison:
Nigeria's GDP is $350bn (some figures are higher or lower).

Budget is N4,700bn or roughly $30.2bn let's call it $30bn.

So our national budget is 8.5% of our National GDP.

Given the huge infratructual deficit Nigeria has, should we be taxed more to provide infrastructure?

Interesting to see how that compares with the other states and other African countries.

The budget is often on the Lagos State govt website. I'm not sure if it is there yet, can't see it.

http://www.lagosstate.gov.ng/

@Gbawe

Looks like fuel subsidy has been removed from today. N143 per litre according to Sahara Reporters.

Very informative and educative posts. Thanks for sharing and Happy New Year!

Vulgar Inscriptions Really Grow Old.


OASIS

@Aethesists

If you have a child. The child must sleep and also learn to walk. Sleeping and walking enhances a child's development.

But, babies have been known to die in their sleep and a child walking for the first time can slip and break its neck.

Does this mean that you will forbid your kid from sleeping or walk?

Most believers believe that the human form is just stage one of a human being's development.

If God, who has given us free will, wraps us in cottonwool how will we ever develop.

How would humans have made the various discoveries. We would still be hunters and gatherers if God ran around us wrapping us in bubble wrap. God has given us choice, free will and also knowledge of good and evil. God has also not abandoned us.

I believe God is with us. It's your choice to believe that or not - it's free will.

texazzpete:

In my humble opinion, any politician who uses the following words or phrases should be stoned to death

1) Capable of heating up the polity
2) The handwork of mischievous political detractors who are not happy with the progressive agenda of ______


I think we should also extend our ire to journalists who use words like 'Storm', 'blasts' and 'lamented'.

I agree. Stoned to death, revived and then stoned to death again!

At the risk of carrying water for GEJ I doubt procedural errors were top of his mind.


Also he did state he would be getting it ratified by National Assembly. Whilst waiting for the ratification, he is surely able to exercise the executive arm to direct the military and security forces to take up positions and to secure the borders.

It would be a brave lawyer who declares last nights's move as unconstitutional especially when the National Assembly is likely to ratify it. Statewide State of Emergencies would have been politically difficult. What would you have him do?

There, I think said it withou exposing my distrust of GEJ and PDP.

alj_harem:

1. Lagos is a commercial hub for nigeria so it is not like the refinary is for yorubas. At the end of the day 70%-90% of lagos is igbo thus majority of the workers are igbos

2. kogi is at the center of the country and also close to abuja thus it serves every region

3. Bayelsa is a SS region and after so many years of neglect, i think it is about time it is built there to provide jobs for the locals

Lastly and very importantly

at the end of the day, we are one nation regardless of zones. WE are not even certain the government would build the refinary so what is all the wahala about really ?

Lagos is 90% of what! Al Harem - Una dey find trouble oh!

@Tomford and @Beaf

Thanks for answering my question on Sharia. That's potentially a land mine.

On the state of emergency powers/procedures, I believe section 305 of the 1999 constitution covers it.

@Amalaaba

A different thread to discuss Ireland-England. It is about the English Empire expanding beyond its nose and about politics.  The English King refused to continue to bow down and pay taxes to the Powerful Popes who used religion to control empires, that was part of the troubles.

If my words were strong it is because I feel strongly about people using religion to mask devious deeds. Religion is often an excuse to power grab or cut down enemies.

I see now that wasn't your intention. And yes Western News media do have a huge bias.

Have a happy new year.

@Amalaaba

Ok. I've just seen your last comment.

Boko Haram are not true Moslems, we need more people like you to state that and often.

@Amalaeba

Northern Ireland conflict is about the English ruling over the Irish. Ireland was an English "colony" and the English raped Irish women and subjugated Ireland. Ireland-England is about ethnicities and one nationality dominating another.

By the way I have friends in Iran and they will tell you Press TV (Iran State tv) is full of lies.

Why don't you face Nigeria's problems instead of drawing international rubbish into it.

Give me one example of Christians killing Moslems in their thousands and quoting the bible after? Just one!

@Tom Ford

I don't think the Military would wait for National Assembly before moving into the area.

The executive arm as CIC may have the power to send the military in and to close the borders before NA ratifies the decision.

The NA would be required though to suspend the state governors powers in those LGAs and to suspend the powers of the LGA chairmen. Does this mean Sharia is suspended in those affected areas?

Look, A Ghost On Sunday.

GHOST

@Amaleba

No need to go. I did not insult you, you're sensitive to an anonymous poster challenging your view on NL but you want Nigerians to be comfortable seeing their brothers, sisters, fathers and mothers killed by people who do not know peaceful Islam.

Such a thin skin, look my family members who are Moslem will equally challenge you for not facing down Boko haram. We all have to face down the negatives in our societies because war (civil, ethnic, or religious) is not child's play.

Yaba Left. The patients have taken over!

Amalaeba

I am waiting for your example. Is it today that Homicidial Moslems have been killing people and quoting your Koran.

Give me just one example of Christians using the bible as justification for massacres!

@Amalaeba

Give me one example in Nigeria where Christians have killed thousands and quoted the bible as their justification.

Go on. You think it funny to sit comfortably behind your pc and type rubbish when people are slaughtering innocent children.

Islam has a major problem with homicidal maniacs perverting their religion and the so called moderates like to sit down and act as if these homicidal maniacs are not a problem.

I don't blame you at all, carry on in your ignorance. Homicidal Islamic maniacs have murdered more Moslems than Christians so keep on sticking your head in the sand.