₦airaland Forum

shigidi:
Referring to All share index. Further index appreciation

The All share index will be inching up gradually.

Money market return is dropping so no longer attractive.

Exchange rate stability will continue to draw foreign investors.

shigidi:
Let me say further APPRECIATION from current levels

Which of the levels sir? Remember we have multiple exchange rates.

I expect Naira to continue to trade on a very narrow window except the pipeline engineers (militants) decide to end their sabbatical

shigidi:
Temper expectations with this. Even crude at $100 doesnt guarantee a bull. Subsidy payments are on the rise. Plus if FPIs sense a strengthened Naira, you may not see further inflows just yet.

Naira will NOT strengthen. Not with the planned increase in minimum wage. CBN will struggle to even maintain at current levels considering election spending.

BTW, what is the definition of a BULL

RabbiDoracle:
Yes, he bought. He said it here.

I think he believed itt will make such sharp rise it did then. Unfortunately, he is carrying the can.

THEN, if he is married, he should handover his investment to his wife!!!!!!

If not, he should stay out of the NSE for a YEAR!

Even JaPaul said there are RED FLAGS in the deal! You RUN away and ask questions later when you see RED FLAGS.

I still think it is a JOKE!!!

locodemy:
It's safer for one to investment in a sound fundamental stock that has little upward movement than investing in a stock that has no fundamental.Such stocks uses the media to to advertise and manipulate prices and will finally dump on investors who has less info.After today,this stock will not be in my portfolio again.Nse should look for a way to sanction Jegede and his board of Directors.

I take the losses and the experience they passed to me while they take my money and go with profit.HMMMMMM.

Are you serious that you did buy JaPaul What were you expecting?

Even a gambler will NOT go near JaPaul

A decorated PIG is still a PIG. No one should be deceived by the shinning shinning things on a PIG. It will always show its true colour!

mendes911:
Japaul Oil, Loss And Fraud Limited

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/22242_JAPAUL_OIL-EQUITY_FINANCING_UPDATE_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2018.pdf

They met and deliberated since March and then kept quiet. I guess some of their directors are done dumping the stock.

Choi. Chai.

Nothing strange here. Both them are Milost are jokers

So they are just seeing the RED flags

Congrats to those who made money. Better luck next time for those counting their loses. There are many of such 'dead' companies on NSE.

Seems the Pumping of C&I Leasing is taking a break

shigidi:
Not only earnings lead to stock appreciation. Valuations may stretch at times

And correction will take place after the stretched valuation.

For those interested in MTN, attached link may be of interest

[url]https://www.mtn.com/MTN%20Service%20Detail%20Presentations/MTN%20Nigeria_Investor%20Day%20Presentation_2018.pdf[/url]

PharmAlfred:
Crude oil comfortably sitting above $75. Seems oil price news doesn't affect NSE anymore.
To win in NSE as it stands today will require a lot of patients. Plenty activities but no real difference to portfolio size.

The real winners,will be investors who discreetly chose companies that will give 30-50% return. The days of 100% return seems to be behind us.

Are the companies having 100% growth in revenue, profit etc So why expect 100% growth? A 100% growth will be followed with a CRASH

IchimokuPilot:
You are doing a good job.
CCNN should be viewed by Jijoists and Wanajaoists differently....
Beta glass is not for the faint hearted....

What is your take on DANGCEM?

Beta Glass is NOT liquid. Dividend yield is LOW. They are a well managed company and control the bottle/packaging business. The 'Leventis' people are a major shareholder. Not sure I am willing to buy at this price. Those were stocks bought at N5.00!

Agbalowomeri:
What are they selling there?

Na Insurance company ooo. Used to be UnityKapital Assurance PLC until Unity Bank divested and they now have a new core investor Veritas Capital.

currentprice:
how mkt

cc NoMoney

31.5m units sold and still gained 7.78% closing at 1.80! That's the highest traded stock by volume today I believe.

OakPearl:
USD will crash because China being Nigeria's biggest trade partner, the currency swap will play a role in reserves management as pressure from Nigerian importers seeking to source dollars will now dissipate.

Importers of Chinese goods will no longer need to buy USD in Nigeria to pay for their goods.

The settlement banks will receive Naira and process their payments using equivalent Chinese currency in their branches in China and vice versa with Chinese based importers of Nigerian products.

Oh dear! I hope you know what happens when there are arbitrage opportunities.

Firstly the impact of Nigeria on USD is near ZERO. No way what Nigeria does will affect the value of the USD.

USD is a convertible currency!

PETERiCHY:
First Bank of Nigeria Limited, Stanbic IBTC, Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) and Zenith Bank Plc have been appointed the settlement banks for the $2.5 billion bilateral currency swap agreed between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) which was announced Thursday.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/05/04/fbn-stanbic-stanchart-zenith-appointed-settlement-banks-for-naira-rmb-currency-swap/amp/

With this development USD will crash.

USD will crash because of what Nigeria is doing? ok ooo

Chibuking81:
This was how Okomo oil started their journey from #27 to #70, the moment red oil started their upward movement, I need nobody then to tell me that Okomo oil and Presco will rise.

Now Federal and some state government has started awarding contract to use as campaign strategy for 2019 election, and most of the contract will go to Jberger, so therefore I need nobody to tell me that, Jberger time has come.

Let see what next 7/8 months have for both Zenith bank and Jberger . Time will judge.

Be careful with Julius Berger ooo. From the Q1 2018 result the BOOST in earnings is due to a N6.4bn forex gains and another N1.4bn on forex translations. If I discount the forex contribution, the result is NOT encouraging.

Just be cautious.

While award of contract is GOOD, it only help in filling your order book. There is no guaranty that it will translate to a profit. Not when your admin expenses for teh quarter move from N7.4bn to N9.6bn!

Mpeace:
My brother, income from sale of subsidiary did not reflect in q1 2017. The proceeds only boosted the results from q3 2017.
Bottom line: Dangflour q1 2018 is not as good as q1 2017. They need serious improvement, if not, by q3 2018 the result will look very poor when compared with q3 2017.

That was stated clearly that the 2017 growth rate is NOT sustainable. It is all about managing expectations. We need to understand what drives performance and the effect of things happening in the environment or larger economy on some sectors or company.

locodemy:
peterichy and his crew members on Dangote flour right now.Will Aliko survive this #7.00 forecast?



Analysts explain why Dangote Flour is a sell
By STANBICIBTC Group Securities
Dangote Flour Mills 1Q18 results showed reported revenue and earnings tracking behind annualised SBGS estimates by
27% and 42% respectively. 1Q revenue of N26.2bn declined by 9% y/y, despite a mid-single digit price increase taken in
4Q17, according to our channel checks.
Net earnings also declined by 39% year on year, mainly as a result of cost pressures and subsequent margin
compression.
Sales outlook
Possible reversal of market share gains might undercut sales in FY18E: On a sequential basis, flour sales saw some
recovery in the quarter (+10% q/q versus a 30% decline in 4Q17), though down sales declined by 9% on a y/y basis.
Pasta sales declined for the third consecutive quarter (-16% q/q) which likely speaks to heightened competitive pressure
in that segment, particularly from Honeywell and Dufil Prima, whose products retail at lower price points.
Unrelenting Competition
Given the intense competition we see in the flour milling industry, we once again highlight the risk of sustained volume
pressure in FY18E, and flag the possibility of a reversal in market share gains made by Dangote Flour in FY16 and FY17
when competitors struggled to access FX to import wheat.
1Q18 gross margin of 18% lowest since 4Q15: We believe that Dangote Flour’s earnings are vulnerable to cost pressures
given its relatively low pricing power in an industry that has excess capacity. This has materialized in 1Q18 with gross
margin contracting to 18% from 25% in 4Q17 (1Q17: 24%), as production costs rose by 14% q/q.
This is the lowest reported gross margin since 4Q15 when a significant industry-wide price increase was effected. We
maintain the view that Dangote Flour will continue to report margin pressure over our forecast period as costs accelerate
at a faster pace than revenue.
Upside risks: We forecast dividend yield of 7% in FY18E for Dangote Flour on a 46% pay-out ratio. We view this as an
upside risk to our numbers and a possible catalyst for TP re-rating. We also see faster than modelled volume growth for
flour, and higher than forecast selling prices as key catalysts for our earnings estimates.
Valuation: We maintain our SELL recommendation for Dangote Flour Mills and target price of N7 per share. On our
numbers, Dangote Flour is trading on a FY18E P/E multiple of 6.7x compared to Nigerian agro-allied peer average of 8.5x.

Very interesting observations.

1) Revenue is not growing - We discussed that the FY17 revenue growth is not sustainable (it is actually not growing now)
2) Earnings not growing - We discussed that the FY17 earnings growth is not sustainable
3) DF does not have the 'monopoly' that Dangote enjoys in other sectors. Heightened competition implies that DF have low pricing power. With excess capacity in the sector, it will take a lot of innovation and creativity to sustain current margins.

That does not imply a SELL though!

TLAX:
They sure do need cash. They are planning a rights issue of 1 for 1 @ N2.75k as stated in their year end corporate action release. They have a bunch of stubborn shareholders. Not allowing new investors and not allowing the major existing one increase its stake. This rights issue will change the fundamental dynamics of the shareholding structure of that company.

TY Danjuma more or less own May and Baker. He was granting them loan self Rights issue by nature does not change the shareholding structure.

swilo:
Is there any info from May & Baker?

The 7M offer does not look like panic selling

Very major individual offers.

Selling their Noddles division to Dufil. They are in need of CASH!

OBAGADAFFI:
Seems they are making money from DOWNSTREAM.

Subsidy money is too juicy.

And OandO is selling its downstream business

mendes911:
UPL:

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/22089_UNIVERSITY_PRESS_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2018.pdf

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/20777_UNIVERSITY_PRESS_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2018.pdf

Above is the Q3 result with Revenue of N1.7bn, PAT of N217.5m and EPS of 50.43kobo

Full year result (unaudited) is Revenue N1.8bn, PAT of N163.m and EPS of 37.99kobo

Effect of seasonality of operations is evident! so IF full year EPS is 37.99 kobo, what is the expected price now?

Still a massive improvement on full year 2017 result when the EPS was 27.45kobo.

rebekah2011:
Is this now a requirement? I saw that UPDC did this also. I think NSE should allow us to see the unaudited Q4 of coys quoted on the NSE. From that we can deduce the board that declare bogus quartely results to deceive their shareholders

With YE of March 2018, the audited report is expected to be released not later than 30th June 2018. So there is still time before UPL result is released.

PharmAlfred:
All the results are just jumping out from no where today. At least they should give us time to study the ones we are interested in. They had all the time in the world to drop them before now.

Today is the deadline or else you pay fine

2zona:
Those that did 8% and 9% dividend yield were they operating and running MMM?

Abnormal dividend yield rather than the norm. Better manage your expectations so as not to be disappointed.

2zona:
True, but their dividend payout just rubbished the whole result, trust me investors will dump this one on Wednesday. Imagine dividend yield of 4.3%. Who this one eep.

Na wa ooo. What dividend yield are you expecting?

Teeonly:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/22114_LEARN_AFRICA_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2018.pdf

Anyone looked at this result. It confirms what I say about the sector. Made profit of N267m in Q4 2017 and LOSS of N185m in Q1 2018. Difficult to estimate the full year profit without considering the seasonality of its operations.

FY 2017 and Q1 2018 Investors and Analysts Presentation


http://www.c-ileasing.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/CI-Leasing-Plc-FY-2017-and-Q1-2018-Investors-and-Analysts-Presentation.pdf

currentprice:
let see where cileasing push price to this week

Why are you pushing the price up this week?

RabbiDoracle:
Skye Bank is the only SIB yet to release results.

Since 2015 Na wa ooo

onegentleguy:
Gbam !!
...U my dear must be a very sharp fellow.
especially for noticing the parts in bold !!
That was why I asked Sir Wanajo to run thru the entirety of the Statement of Cash Flow and the NOTES to shareholders.
On 5 and 6, imagine after reducing facility borrowing by a whooping approx 18Billion and spending over 6Billion in investing activities, they still maintained a very healthy cash position and an above average increment in retained earnings.
...honestly, I do not know how else one can possibly describe a very competent management if not this way.

On the last part of ur statement in bold, u are also very correct. ...for the 'REVELATIONS' will all come to pass.
Soon, doubters will indeed be made to BELIEVE in the ability of Mr TIME.
...it's only a matter of time.
On DF and DS, we remain unshakable !!

Why do I need cashflow statement to determine whether there is increase in revenue and profit?

Again, the discussion was not about the competency of the management or otherwise. Discussion was about sustainability of the GROWTH in revenue and profit based on the FY2017 result.

valacious:
https://www.financialwatchngr.com/2018/04/30/cbn-threatens-bank-ceos-with-sack-over-delayed-accounts/
Are they reading our comments here. Someone here, guess, Wanajo advocated that bank md and chairman be sacked for delayed bank results.
Great step in nice direction by CBN.

No be me ooo

By the way, which bank is this:

One Systematically Important Bank (SIB) with offshore subsidiaries in three countries has failed to publish its financial statement for the past three years. Its last published financial statement was for the third quarter ended September 30, 2015.

The shareholders better call for an EGM!