₦airaland Forum

They’ll say it’s Jubril not Buhari lol

The tide has turned

sleek214:
Point of correction, Obi has the highest number of unintelligent, daft and biased people supporting him.

Wailer in chief

LocalStandard1:
No I am not Igbo, I am from Southern Kaduna. Gwong is my tribe, from Jema'a LGA.

You are finding it hard to believe Peter Obi has supporters all around Nigeria cos you are a tribalist and your candidate can't boast of same.

I love both the Hausa, Igbo, Yoruba. I am not a tribalist, this is me supporting Prof. Yemi Osibanjo, an intelligent Omoluabi, before incompetent Tinubu bought the Presidential ticket with money....

https://www.nairaland.com/7155254/pictures-why-prof-yemi-osibanjo

https://www.nairaland.com/7546597/when-almost-became-apc-member

As you can see, I have no grudge against the Yoruba, I want the best for Nigeria and Obi happens to be it.

Still reading the thread but just have to say; God bless you for even putting up with this lowlife nonsense from BATified2023.

You really don't have to say your tribe or where you're from. Let them believe what they want to believe. Their problem not yours

Kyase:
Decided to keep emotions aside and pick the best ticket

must be hard with the way your emotions have jumped up and down through the election cycle so far lol

good luck

Kyase:
Osinbanjo
Boss mustapha these guys don't have electrol values
Worse worse that osinbanjo
Someone that couldn't win his polling unit in election, he's on the ballot, in his party stronghold
Na that day I know, pastor no get anything to offer politically

Boss mustapha too lost his unit to PDP
Useless people

My guy how did you go from "I will never support MM ticket" to supporting BAT to now criticising the handful of Christians in the administration?

Just curious lol

Mynd44 has quietly re-opened your original thread and deleted his comment without public apology. I trust that he apologised to you privately lol

https://www.nairaland.com/7536805/picture-peter-obi-sultan-sokoto

nameo:
Garfield my fwend, i really do not have the time for a meaningless "argument".

If after reading that document(including the part i clearly snapped for you) and you believe what you believe, then no problem o.

Your "reality". And thats fine by me

I used to think he was just a biased "die-hard tinubu fan" like he likes to call himself. Aren't we all biased lol

But with some of his logic (or lack of it) today I suspect he's just paid to convince people that LP can't win. Times are hard sha so can't blame anyone lol

Mynd44:
8. Don't post false information on Nairaland.

Your attention is needed here sir lol

FreedomfromtheT:
How many Yorubas live, work and do business in the Southeast?

Mummy herself (the OP) personally knows a Yoruba person that lived and worked in the Southeast lol. She wrote about it just 12 months ago. See quote below.

But something happened and now she's here embarrassing herself. Times are hard so I don't blame her. We should all pray for her. It is well with you mummy <3

gabbytabby:
I am encouraged by this and continue to pray that a return to the good old days will happen for Nigeria.

Last year end November/December 2021 my Yoruba plumber went to the East to work. While he was there, a neighbour’s son took an interest in his work and worked with them throughout their project there.

Surprise surprise when he was going to leave, the parents of the boy asked if he would take their boy back to lagos with him and train him in the trade.

The Igbo boy now lives with him and trains with him.

I prayed for the boy and wished him well giving my motherly advice. Unbeknownst to him, he now has a surrogate mum in me as his mum is far.

It is this pockets of trust and goodwill that continues to encourage one that all is not lost.

Nigeria will survive.

garfield1:
This was conducted in ph not in the villages

Source please sir?

Let's try and avoid lazy unsubstantiated claims today please. Just for today lol.

Patiently awaiting your reply lol

I did it myself. Here I've removed the undecided and undisclosed so that the percentage is divided by the 3 candidates instead. Ideally I should also include NNPP but OP removed them and I've just carried on with that. Still you can see that the LP is well below 25% in the NW and NE.

Even if LP get 25% in all the states in the other regions, which is unlikely, he would still need 25% from one more state to be able to win at the first ballot.

LP are expected to be competitive in states like Kaduna and Taraba though so it is achievable

They also excluded Rivers state in their poll which has the 4th highest number of registered voters and usually votes similar to SE states. Hence LPs numbers are suppressed in the SS.

OP can you please redo the percentages with "undecided" and "undisclosed" voters excluded? That should show a truer percentage to know who is likely to achieve the 25% spread

garfield1:
We have a best case scenario.Bantu is a worst worst case scenario

lol sure sir

Here's is their Rivers state "worst case" poll which they decided to exclude from both polls for some reason. Maybe to keep it competitive for you lol

https://twitter.com/BantuPage/status/1615375891655450624

Personally I think Bantupage were so shocked by the poll they decided to leave it out

gabbytabby:
I still saw the boy yesterday and now I am happy for him he went home for the holidays and is back doing his thing.

However I now feel under constant threat of war and the continuing insecurities that I can't ignore.

We encourage when we can and speak some home truth when we need to.

YORUBA RONU

God bless you mummy. It is well with you <3

DrAkpamudehe:
All hogwash from a dead BAT.

She's just going through a crisis. Look at her lovely post this time last year. Pray for her

gabbytabby:
I am encouraged by this and continue to pray that a return to the good old days will happen for Nigeria.

Last year end November/December 2021 my Yoruba plumber went to the East to work. While he was there, a neighbour’s son took an interest in his work and worked with them throughout their project there.

Surprise surprise when he was going to leave, the parents of the boy asked if he would take their boy back to lagos with him and train him in the trade.

The Igbo boy now lives with him and trains with him.

I prayed for the boy and wished him well giving my motherly advice. Unbeknownst to him, he now has a surrogate mum in me as his mum is far.

It is this pockets of trust and goodwill that continues to encourage one that all is not lost.

Nigeria will survive.

gabbytabby:
I am encouraged by this and continue to pray that a return to the good old days will happen for Nigeria.

Last year end November/December 2021 my Yoruba plumber went to the East to work. While he was there, a neighbour’s son took an interest in his work and worked with them throughout their project there.

Surprise surprise when he was going to leave, the parents of the boy asked if he would take their boy back to lagos with him and train him in the trade.

The Igbo boy now lives with him and trains with him.

I prayed for the boy and wished him well giving my motherly advice. Unbeknownst to him, he now has a surrogate mum in me as his mum is far.

It is this pockets of trust and goodwill that continues to encourage one that all is not lost.

Nigeria will survive.

OP went from this lovely post to this tribalistic nonsense in just 12 months.

I wonder what happened in between lol.

I'm praying for you ma. It is well with you mummy <3

Anyone but APC

garfield1:
It does.almost all ss states were includes except rivers

Okay let's check shall we. You have LP and APC level in 2 of the 5 states polled. You have APC destroying LP in Bayelsa. You have LP with marginal leads over APC in the remaining 2 states. Quoted below for clarity as you seem confused today lol

This survey by bantupage polls the same 5 states and has LP crushing APC by a bigger margin than in any of the states you gave to LP. Even your estimate in Rivers lol

You're entitled to your estimate sir but trying to claim that this poll aligns with yours is beyond dishonest lol

garfield1:
Cross river
Apc 35%
Pdp 30%
Lp 35%

Akwa ibom
Apc 30%
Pdp 40%
Lp 30%

Rivers
Apc 28%
Pdp 22%
Lp 50%

Bayelsa
Apc 40%
Pdp 42%
Lp 18%

Delta
Apc 25%
Pdp 40%
Lp 35%

Edo
Apc 35%
Pdp 20%
Lp 45%

garfield1:
Rivers won't change much

lol that is just dishonest.

Read the poll again carefully and consider the states excluded. This poll doesn't support your estimates at all. It almost entirely contradicts it

garfield1:
This is the best poll so far,close to reality and my worst case scenario.I have always stated that tinubu and atiku will divide ne nw.whoever wins will do so narrowly and the gap will get narrower.obi will fail woefully in ne/nw.tinubu votes here will cancel whatever obi gets in se ss.the only issues in core north is that I believe kwankwaso will poll higher and tinubu will win yobe.
In nc,I calculated that obi or tinubu will win narrowly.they will cancel each other.obi votes in sw is reducing.I predicted that tinubu will beat atiku in se or ss or both or they draw each other.tinubu weakest zone is se and luckily atiku is also weak there.tinubu is getting stronger in ss..

This poll is more or less an expo for tinubu campaign.they know what to do.overall, obi leads by 3% which is too lean a lead and it can be cancelled easily.all apc needs do is more campaign and mobilization, more funding,stifling of lp bases etc

If they didn't poll Rivers state or include the result like the SS image suggests then the poll is useless

It is egregious that these guys seem to have excluded results from Rivers state. In the SS picture posted by OP they said they only polled the other 5 SS states

Top 5 states by registered voters:

5. Katsina 3,516,719
4. Rivers 3,537,190
3. Kaduna 4,335,208
2. Kano 5,921,370
1. Lagos 7,060,195

Note that most pollsters expect all these states to be bitterly contested by at least two candidates except one; Rivers state is Obident

Flathead8:
I'm a student and I will vote Tinubu

uba1991:
you are not a student, you are just a Yoruba basterds. If you know the meaning of student you will not even think about voting a party like APC.

New account created yesterday to troll people. Ignore the 'student'

SadiqBabaSani:
A very useless Thread by a very cynical op,

When Obi becomes, how can you even Predict Atiku to win rivers 😂😂😂 Are you even following the mood of the nation at all?

He is using the Logarithm Rule to try and solve a Quadratic Equation.

They say no information is sometimes better than incomplete information.

Got a good laugh though reading this though, thanks OP 😂😂😂

PS: It is interesting that all the 5 states OP failed to predict correctly in the last election were for incorrectly projecting APC as the winner. Clear bias lol

NigerianAngelo:
South East:
1. Anambra
2. Imo
3. Enugu
4. Ebonyi
5. Abia

South-South:
6. Cross River
7. Akwa Ibom
8. Rivers
9. Bayelsa
10. Delta
11. Edo

South-West: (all)
12. Lagos
13. Ondo
14. Ekiti
15. Ogun
16. Osun
17. Oyo

Central: (5/6)
18. Kogi
19. Benue
20. Plateau
21. Niger
22. Nasarawa

North-East:
23. Adamawa
24. Taraba
25. Gombe

North-West:
26. Kano
27. Kaduna

FCT:
28. FCT


Argue with Feb 28th.

Please please people FCT is not a state. Pretty sure the electoral act says the winning candidate needs 25% from 24 out of the 36 and then 25% in FCT too. The language in the electoral act is a little vague but that is the most straightforward interpretation of what it says.

I hope we don't enter a national crisis over this issue come Feb 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIPuamePQS4

Street poll by BURGHS TV in different parts of Lagos.

Kwankwaso getting more mentions than Atiku in Lagos is surprising. Thoughts?

Ikaeniyan0:
It does not exclude the FCT

You're wrong. The candidate needs to get 25% in 24 of the 36 states and also in FCT. Again, FCT is not a state. This is what the simplified electoral act says:

Single Candidate:
If the candidate gets a majority of “yes” over “no” votes cast in the election and at
least a quarter of votes cast in at least 24 States and the Federal Capital Territory.

You can find more discussion about this in the thread below.

https://www.nairaland.com/7443122/question-constitutional-requirement-presidential-election

EDIT: On second thought the line is not very clear and can be interpreted in different ways. It would be good if INEC clarifies this before election day

FatherOfJesus:
1. Abuja
2. Nasarawa
3. Benue
4. Plateau
6. Lagos
7. Ogun
8. Osun
9. Ekiti
10. Ondo
11. Oyo
12. Edo
13. Delta
14. Bayelsa
15. Rivers
16. Akwa ibom
17. Crossrivers
18. Abia
19. Imo
20. Ebonyi
21. Anambra
22. Enugu
23. Kaduna
24. Taraba.

I don't want to add Kogi state.
Don't let anyone tell you that Obi cannot win this election on the first ballot

Abuja is not a state. Peter Obi needs 25% in 24 of the 36 states which excludes FCT

wegevv:
Nice post bro. Can I ask what you would change if you had to do it again today?

Do you think you underestimated/overestimated any of the parties in any states back then?

Thanks

Btw the 2 states you were missing were Gombe and Yobe. Both in the NE

Niwdog:
no problem

Nice post bro. Can I ask what you would change if you had to do it again today?

Do you think you underestimated/overestimated any of the parties in any states back then?

Thanks