Olodostein:

Sound and pragmatic. The bolded is what we wanted to hear. Naira is headed for high uncertainty( Hyper inflation) and we may end up having 1billion naira note , just like the Zimbabweans.

Gold is a good investment. The Jews have always succeeded in moving their wealth around in that form.

I have come to have confidence in your economic analysis. Are you an economist by training? Which economic school of thought do you adhere to? Who is your favorite 20th century and 21 century economists?

Sorry for all the questions . If you can start analyzing ways in which we can transfer back our wealth into developing the South East into an economic hub. Start thinking bro . I happen to find myself most times amongst a lot of businessmen of igbo extraction from Sabon Gari market in Kano to Trade fair in Lagos. And they are beginning to see CONCRETE reasons in relocating back home. They would need all the necessary information they can get.

Even if Nigeria survives beyond 2015. We are tired of the humiliation and lack of appreciation from parasites. We need to take our destiny fully into our own hands.  

Why is it that there is no real tangible manufacturing by black Africans in the whole of Africa? The South East can set the way, just like we are beginning to do. But we need more information from our esteemed Economists home and abroad.

Thank you for the insightful analysis .

So, my South Eastern brothers on Nairaland, convert that very uncertain Naira into save havens ooo. Don't you see as it is depreciating day by day? Investors keep loosing confidence because the future of Naija is at stake. Since Aboki's and Yoruba's no want make GEJ make this country better. They are ready to go extra miles and have shown how desperate they can be.  

Our independent minded and foremost Economist Manny4life has spoken. Forewarned is to be forearmed.

emmatok:

The-same Port you have been building for years. [b][/b]

manny4life:

@Olodostein,

Actually, I'm no economist by training but trust me, I've done extensive economics, however, I try not to associate my personal, educational and experience record with Nairaland.

Sorry for all the questions. If you can start analyzing ways in which we can transfer back our wealth into developing the South East into an economic hub. Start thinking bro Cool. I happen to find myself most times amongst a lot of businessmen of igbo extraction from Sabon Gari market in Kano to Trade fair in Lagos. And they are beginning to see CONCRETE reasons in relocating back home. They would need all the necessary information they can get.


I have once stated this before on few threads; development of an economic hub must come with vision, and through vision and passion, comes finance and money, and through money comes development, which increases consumption and later recycled back again. The ball starts with the leaders (not necessarily the govt) but visionary leader, it could be corporate, education, healthcare, whatever.

I once suggested that the SE can form what is called a "business consortium", this consortium will be responsible for a particular key development, for instance transportation. This consortium will set up what I thought should be called the South East Development Corporation. This Corp will have access to large pool of money both home and abroad, and I mean in hundreds of millions of $$$. This Corp oversee major infrastructural investment such as Medium or High Speed Rail Networks, Manufacturing Villages (out-of the box style model), port to airports to whatever it is that connect SE for the greater good.

dayokanu:

Still waiting for official figures from manny4life to compute Nigeria population

Na wa Oh!!! I think the call for resource control must be heard this year and SNC must be held this 2012 . Can you imagine unproductive states such as Oyo , Ogun , Ondo , Borno , Adamawa , Kano and Nassarawa  having MORE GDP than Oil rich areas such as Bayelsa , Abia , Akwa ibom , Imo . Hmmm wonders shall never end in this country . Asari abeg carry on . Fire burn all of them wen no want make we occupy our natural resources by ourselves.

GAR3TH:

see*noevil
No offense but how old are you? An educated adult wouldn't be making such id!otic statements. for your information oil only account for 14% of nigeria's GDP, while agriculture accounts for more than 26% of nigeria's gdp and other sectors account for the remaining percentage. Nigeria is not a Banana republic, our economy does not really on oil. So i scratch my head every time i see comments like these. No one depends on the Nigeria delta, their are other economic activities in the country other than oil that can be tax.

Secondly, This is for all those who constantly group themselves with oil producing state, get over it. If Nigeria was to split I can assure you that either two countries will emerge, a north or a south, or 250 new nations will emerge, those are the only options. Why are you guys complaining that the British just group us together without a care in the world yet you do the exact same thing by drawing ludicrous maps and making absurd statement by grouping ethnicity that don't want to be with you. Seriously, I think some people on here need to grow up and act their age for once, disgusting.

manny4life:

This is the FAULTY part about GDP.  A true GDP not only measures on its number but per/capita as well. You can better access an economy better on the per capita basis because you want to know what the economic output for each individual is. Keep in mind the GDP represent everything including debts as well (Govt spending which can include loans). With that being said, perform a GDP per capita, SE has the second highest per capita after SS and that's because of their OIL. That tells you the true productivity per individual is actually in the SE/SS.

manny4life:

@Olodostein,

Actually, I'm no economist by training but trust me, I've done extensive economics, however, I try not to associate my personal, educational and experience record with Nairaland.

Sorry for all the questions. If you can start analyzing ways in which we can transfer back our wealth into developing the South East into an economic hub. Start thinking bro Cool. I happen to find myself most times amongst a lot of businessmen of igbo extraction from Sabon Gari market in Kano to Trade fair in Lagos. And they are beginning to see CONCRETE reasons in relocating back home. They would need all the necessary information they can get.


I have once stated this before on few threads; development of an economic hub must come with vision, and through vision and passion, comes finance and money, and through money comes development, which increases consumption and later recycled back again. The ball starts with the leaders (not necessarily the govt) but visionary leader, it could be corporate, education, healthcare, whatever.

I once suggested that the SE can form what is called a "business consortium", this consortium will be responsible for a particular key development,  for instance transportation. This consortium will set up what I thought should be called the South East Development Corporation. This Corp will have access to large pool of money both home and abroad, and I mean in hundreds of millions of $$$. This Corp oversee major infrastructural investment such as Medium or High Speed Rail Networks, Manufacturing Villages (out-of the box style model), port to airports to whatever it is that connect SE for the greater good.

dayokanu:

^^ Abeg which census was held in 2010?
So we are to believe Lagos grew from 9m in 2006 to 14m in 2010. 1 million growth every year?

Pls which city grows at that rate in the whole world?

Lagos State in 1991 was 5million and increased to 9m in 2006, 15years later but now we are to believe that it did 5million increase in 5yrs?

dayokanu:

^^ Abeg which census was held in 2010?
So we are to believe Lagos grew from 9m in 2006 to 14m in 2010. 1 million growth every year?

Pls which city grows at that rate in the whole world?

Lagos State in 1991 was 5million and increased to 9m in 2006, 15years later but now we are to believe that it did 5million increase in 5yrs?

manny4life:

Perhaps, it's been fake news circulating the internet then that a census was held in 2010 or perhaps my subconscious mind telling me one was held in 2010

Look at question, how did Lagos add population by 5million in five years?   Is that supposedly a question? How much was it's GDP in 2006 and how much is it now? Or you think population and productivity doesn't affect GDP? Same how Nigeria was 140million in 2006 and some world data has it now surpassed 150+ million people.

To answer your question, when population increases, it spurs productivity. so YES, we are to believe that Lagos has added 5million residents over the past five years. After all, the Bloomberg's articles said, GDP was @ $54billon while per capita was about $3,000, leaving us with about 18million residents.

Please, it's important to ask ekt_bear, he will post the article if he has it in archive, I wasn't the one who wrote it.

GAR3TH:

see*noevil
No offense but how old are you? An educated adult wouldn't be making such id!otic statements. for your information oil only account for 14% of nigeria's GDP, while agriculture accounts for more than 26% of nigeria's gdp and other sectors account for the remaining percentage. Nigeria is not a Banana republic, our economy does not rely on oil. So i scratch my head every time i see comments like these. No one depends on the Niger delta, there are other economic activities in the country other than oil that can be tax.

Secondly, This is for all those who constantly group themselves with oil producing state, get over it. If Nigeria was to split I can assure you that either two countries will emerge, a north or a south, or 250 new nations will emerge, those are the only options. Why are you guys complaining that the British just group us together without a care in the world yet you do the exact same thing by drawing ludicrous maps and making absurd statement by grouping ethnicity that don't want to be with you. Seriously, I think some people on here need to grow up and act their age for once, disgusting.

Katsumoto:


Stranger
1. You can't access an economy better on GDP per capita; GDP per capita is a measure of standard of living. GDP is a true measure of an economy (growth or contraction) regardless of the approach used to calculate it. GDP is faulty because it doesn't measure equality, effects of production on the environment, income from the underground economy, nor does it take into account certain valuable services such as housework, etc.

2. GDP per capita is not a measure of individual productivity or income. As I said in 1 above, it measures standard of living. if an area has a GDP of $10,000 and there are 1000 people living in that area, the GDP per capita is $10. It doesn't necessarily mean that each person has $10. Usually in the economies of capitalist countries, income is usually concentrated in a few hands. One man may have earned $6,000.

3. The presence of natural resources in an area does not make its citizens more productive. The GDP per capita in Qatar is almost triple that of Germany; will you are that Qataris are more productive than Germans?

4. GDP is a measure of economic activity and not wealth. Debt is never included in GDP. If you look at the formulas for all the approaches used in calculating GDP (income, expenditure, production) you will observe that debt is not a component. There is a debt to gdp ratio which helps investors assess a government's ability to repay its debt.

5. Within a country, the approach used to calculate GDP will produce different results. For instance, one area may have the highest GDP if income is used while another area may have highest GDP if expenditure is used and another area may have highest GDP if production is used

Perhaps I am wrong.

Katsumoto:

It is really pathetic that in this day and age, grown folks are still making the following errors

1. That originating from an area rich in mineral resources automatically makes you rich or comfortable. Are all Texans rich/wealthy? If your neighbour has oil beneath the surface of his land; does that make you rich vicariously?

2. That every Nigerian, including those living under bridges, is stealing oil from the Niger delta. The individuals profiting from the oil in the ND cut across all Nigerian tribes as well as foreign beneficiaries


I hope Asari's prayers will be answered so that GEJ can initiate an SNC which can lead to Nigeria's dissolution. This oil really is a curse.




Population increase can either increase or decrease GDP depending on whether those arriving are productive or lazy. 1000 steve jobs is not the same as 1000 handicapped beggars. Similarly, if those arriving engage in the underground economy, then they may not increase the GDP of an area but reduce the GDP per capita of the said area in question.

manny4life:

Perhaps, it's been fake news circulating the internet then that a census was held in 2010 or perhaps my subconscious mind telling me one was held in 2010

Look at question, how did Lagos add population by 5million in five years?   Is that supposedly a question? How much was it's GDP in 2006 and how much is it now? Or you think population and productivity doesn't affect GDP? Same how Nigeria was 140million in 2006 and some world data has it now surpassed 150+ million people.

dayokanu:

Definitely you are mixing things, It was the US that had a census in 2010 not Nigeria

Nigeria grew by 7% in 5years which is very plausible given our 2.27% growth rate per annum documented

But how can any place record a 66% growth within 5years, If Lagos is really 15m then the 9million of 2006 must be fake by a margin

manny4life:


I will pick your points one after another,

1.Perhaps, we look at thing differently. I'm glad we both agree that GDP is faulty now you see why I said I will rather use GDP per capita as opposed to a random bulk number which makes no meaning whatsoever.

2. Dude, don't even get me started brother,  What are the components of GDP then if it isn't about productivity? LOL, dude stop making me to laugh,  The per capita is just explaining what each individual in an economy produces or contributes, and since income is part and parcel of GDP, I'm surprised you're saying this. I guess you're trying to explain something else different. U.S. has a GDP per capita of about $45k per person, it doesn't necessarily mean everyone in U.S. is earning that amount, it's just telling that that $45K is the average GDP components combined together for a given person.

3. If you have read my previous post prior to this, I have always SAID and MAINTAINED, natural resources doesn't make you productive. I also said it here as well, hard-work, vision, equal result (productivity). I really don't know where you summed all of that up. Yes the Qutaris are more productive per the Germans, like seriously?

4. Thank you to no 4, tell that to those who keep claiming LAGOS is wealthy.  Perhaps, you misread my post, or perhaps, I had typed wrongly, I've always maintained GDP is the measure of an economy NOT WEALTH, however, I'm of the opinion that a true GDP of how an economy is per capita,   That debt part was my own error, I admit that (I was rooting for govt expense not debt),

5. I strongly DO NOT agree with point 5, GDP remains the same way regardless of whatever approach is, it really doesn't matter.

To sum it up, we agree in parts, and I disagree in parts,

manny4life:


Meanwhile that 1000 handicapped beggars are part of the Micro economic cycle of demand, they are spending, consuming, buying, doing every other thing else an average person does right? Or aren't they? While they are begging, when you give them money, isn't that unaccounted wage that recycles back into the system as consumption? 

For instance, when 1,000 beggars purchase bear or cigarettes, food items, is that income not recorded all the way back through the cycle of demand and supply? Hasn't the purchase of those beggars affected the supply of goods as well as income of manufacturers?

Katsumoto:

2. See explanation of GDP per capita from investopedia - "The gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the primary indicators of a country's economic performance. It is calculated by either adding up everyone's income during the period or by adding the value of all final goods and services produced in the country during the year. Per capita GDP is sometimes used as an indicator of standard of living as well, with higher per capita GDP being interpreted as having a higher standard of living.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/per-capita-gdp.asp#axzz1jm2lwIrH

Like I stated earlier, GDP per capita gives an indication of standard of living but not strength of an economy. Otherwise Qatar, Luxembourg, Brunei, Singapore have better performing economies than Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK.

3. In your original post that I replied to, you stated and I quote "That tells you the true productivity per individual is actually in the SE/SS." You were implying that individuals in the SE/SS were more productive than individuals in other regions based on GDP per capita. That assumption does not take into consideration the fact that Oil may be produced in the SS but the individuals/corporations who getting the benefit of that production may sit in Abuja, Enugu, Lagos, London, Washington. Oil production doesn't make the indigenes of the SS more productive. The oil workers in the SS may even not all come from the SS. Given that Nigeria's economy is most underground and Nigeria doesn't really have the ability to collate and analyse data, my guess is that Nigeria GDP is based on expenditure or production and unlikely to be based on income

5. Please re-read my original post. I stated and I quote "Within a country, the approach used to calculate GDP will produce different results. For instance, one area may have the highest GDP if income is used while another area may have highest GDP if expenditure is used and another area may have highest GDP if production is used". For instance, the GDP of the US may be $100,000. If you use income approach, NY may have highest GDP, if you use production, California or Texas may have highest, and if you use expenditure, DC may have the highest GDP. But the GDP will be $100,000 regardless of the approach.

Katsumoto:

The aggregate value of the purchases from the beggars may be less than what it costs society to accommodate them. Secondly the beggars are not producing anything, they get their money from the disposable income of those who give them alms. That income is already accounted for in GDP. If citizens didn't give them alms, the citizens would spend that money on other items. Unless the beggars are engaged in productive activities, the aggregate sum of their activities is already accounted for.

If population explosion increased GDP, the US wouldn't have borders. Controlled migration is good; open border is not always good.

Katsumoto:

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

You are trying to be clever. Mineral extraction by a foreign corporation will swell the coffers of a host community but it does not translate to high productivity among the citizens of that community. Was/is that not the angst of the oil producing communities in the ND? Their resources were being transferred out of their communities. A Texan oil company mining oil in texas is not the same as a British oil company mining in the ND. If the Oil companies in the ND were owned and managed by the nost communities or individuals within that community, then we can argue that the host community is productive. But if the citizens of that community are engaged in the same trades as you would find in other non-oil producing areas, then the benefit of that oil is getting to them. So while Bayelsa may record $1Billion annually, $600million will go to shell, $250m to the government, $50m to marketers, £30m to MEND and $70m to the cabals. How has that improved the standard of living of the communities in Bayelsa?

Anyway, I am out; I believe I have made my point. 

Olodostein:

In that sense; Nigeria is a classic case of a Banana Republic.

So much for an Educated mind like yours .  So much comedy on Nairaland .