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 Business › Re: Breaking: Naira Hits N500 To $1 by 4Play(m): 5:07pm On Apr 25, 2020 |
realpoacher:The dollar has a history of serving as a global reserve currency and investors see it as safe asset. As international trade and cross-border investment is conducted using the dollar, everyone wants to get hold of as much dollars as possible to navigate what would be a difficult economic period. Don't think that economic damage in the US is viewed the same way as damage in Nigeria. Given the US is a major source of global demand, weakness in the US often means weak global growth which results in dollar demand, thus value, rising as investors purchase as much dollars as possible. 2 Likes |
| Business › Re: Dollar Now N390 On Google, Up From N360 by 4Play(m): 4:45pm On Apr 25, 2020 |
It's already N450 to $1 in the parallel market where most Nigerians are capable of accessing dollars. In the forward market, contracts for the future, it's N500: The volatility of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market seems to be heading towards the 2015 crisis era as the naira has further depreciated to N450 to a dollar in the parallel market on Friday, April 24, 2020.https://nairametrics.com/2020/04/24/naira-crashes-to-n450-to-a-dollar-amid-fx-scarcity/ The naira also weakened on the forward market. One-year dollar/naira non-deliverable forwards stood at 498.5 points, weakening from Monday's close of 492.4, Refinitiv data showed.https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-currency-idUSL5N2C90OM PS: The first cited article is 3 days after the second. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: Nnamdi Kanu: How He Failed His Abia State- Pictures by 4Play(m): 10:57am On Apr 25, 2020 |
He should be using his platform to campaign for better governance in his state of origin not indulging in a hate fest against other ethnicities. The campaign for Biafra would be more credible if it is aligned with identifying practical solutions to everyday problems in Igboland. For instance, IPOB can organize a clean up day for Aba. It's not beyond them to do this. They will be more successful that way than this campaign of hate modus operandi. 1 Like |
| Properties › Re: Is This The Most Beautiful House You've Seen In Your Life by 4Play(m): 11:24pm On Apr 24, 2020 |
GamalNasser:Garish interior decoration styles are still popular in Nigeria. I tend to associate it with the older demographic but it's odd to see even internet savvy youngsters praising such visual atrocities. 6 Likes |
| Foreign Affairs › Re: We Must Stop Borrowing And Start Printing Money For Our Development- Paul Kagame by 4Play(m): 10:53pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Dtribeless:They think that the effect of printing the naira is the same as printing the dollar or the euro. Interestingly, if you offer any of them $1m or N390m, they will likely choose $1m. It's about realizing the connection between the low faith/confidence in naira (evidence of which is abundant) and the consequences of increasing the supply of an untrusted currency. The reality is that we already have printed too much naira, this is why we have double digit inflation. So their preferred policy is already being implemented to miserable effects and they are demanding more of it. 4 Likes |
| Foreign Affairs › Re: We Must Stop Borrowing And Start Printing Money For Our Development- Paul Kagame by 4Play(m): 10:43pm On Apr 23, 2020*. Modified: 11:25pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
seunmsg:The writer of the article is Kwadwo Agyei Yeboah and I can't see any evidence Paul Kagame stated we need to start printing money The fact that you and your ilk think money printing hasn't been tried before and that it will work tells us about the stranglehold of voodoo economics in Africa. If you print more naira, increasing the supply of naira, it will reduce the value of naira. The more of something you have, the less valuable it is. If you reduce the naira's value, you will have a currency crisis and we all know how impoverishing it is as the cost of goods become unaffordable. This money printing came up because we keep hearing about western economies doing it but they face a different set of problems - deflation which is a situation where cost of goods are falling as companies/investors will rather deposit money in the central bank than invest. By central banks increasing the quantity of money and using it to buy assets, they reduce its value and force investors to put their deposits to productive use instead of seeing it lose value. In Africa, we don't face the threat of deflation. In an economic crisis, cost of goods rise rapidly as people convert local currency to dollars and exporters refuse to repatriate money home. Remember our crises also coincide with fall in commodity prices which reduces export revenues and access to dollars. If you print more local currency, this will increase the imbalance between the supply of the local currency and the demand for dollars. So you will guarantee a currency crisis and a rapid increase in the cost of goods. Before aping an idea you see on CNN, ask yourself how this will work in Nigeria. And don't regurgitate a stupid idea because Tinubu supports it - I am sure he's able to protect himself by keeping a lot of his assets abroad. 3 Likes |
| Investment › Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 8:54pm On Apr 23, 2020*. Modified: 1:00pm On May 17, 2020 |
Tabuse20:By deflation, I mean the possibility of falling consumer prices. Inflation has been pretty low in the US when the economy was good, the sheer scale of GDP contraction we are facing threatens to tip things into deflation territory. This is why Fed monetary easing helps. Counterintuitively, it makes a compelling case for gold mining stocks as money pours into gold because people want to hedge against inflation/currency debasement. Edit: 17/05/2020 - A follow up to my reply to Tabuse20 about deflation in the US. April core inflation data came out and it's the worst it's been for decades: 2 Likes
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| Crime › Re: #JusticeForSeyiAkinade: Seyi Akinade Commits Suicide Over SARS Ill-Treatment by 4Play(m): 7:39pm On Apr 22, 2020 |
SARS are like an evil plague that needs to be tamed. It's a shame the FG pays little heed to this. Watch as they face no consequences for this. I think the young man was obviously already emotionally fragile. No one - unless you are running a +$1m fund - should have a trading position open that can cost you $20k overnight. If SARS didn't precipitate this loss here, it could have happened in a different set of circumstances. 1 Like |
| Investment › Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 6:18pm On Apr 22, 2020 |
Tabuse20:I think a wait and see approach is appropriate if, like me, your investment horizon is to buy and hold stocks for up to a year. The markets bounced off the lows after the Fed injected liquidity but we need positive news about the covid-19 situation to move significantly higher. Otherwise, we are going to be in a stalemate (bouncing back and forth), and even retest the lows if the virus situation doesn't improve. It's the big tech stocks that I am keen on like, Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) for their strong balance sheets but even here I will exercise caution given the stalemate I noted. I also like Regeneron (REGN), Costco (COST), and Walmart (WMT) for their balance sheets. Unlike the aforementioned tech stocks, I suspect they can trend higher even in a bear market if the covid-19 crisis doesn't improve. PS: I think hyperinflation out of the question as the Fed's liquidity injection supports asset prices (good for stocks) but hardly flows into the real economy. We should pray to avoid deflation in the US. 3 Likes |
| Investment › Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 7:29am On Apr 22, 2020 |
ConcNiggress56:USO stock suffers from rollover risks so is a poor way to play a bounce in oil prices. As I understand it, the ETF needs to be rolled over at the expiration of the front month's (nearest month) futures contract. For instance, the ETF will currently hold the June contract for WTI which they have to sell in May to purchase the July contract - if they don't sell, it means taking physical delivery of oil which they don't want. Come May when selling the June contract, they will be selling at lower prices than they bought the contract due to the supply glut whilst purchasing the more expensive July contract. Therefore, they are constantly buying high and selling low in a so called contango market. Hopefully, someone here is a better explainer but it appears a no-go area for anyone betting on oil prices rising. Unless one is looking at a short-term bounce. There is also an article that explains the USO stock problem: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4338311-betting-on-higher-oil-prices-uso-is-not-right-vehicle Maybe consider Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to play a bounce as it looks poised to rise once the carnage in the oil markets stop. A better run oil company is Chevron (CVX), though that has risen quite a bit since its lows. 6 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Soldiers Repel Boko Haram Attacks On Geidam, Yobe by 4Play(m): 2:47pm On Apr 20, 2020 |
It's difficult to know what is actually going on but one must bear in mind that not all Boko Haram attacks are intended to seize and hold territory. The terrorists sometimes simply want to terrorize by conducting hit and run missions. So the narrative that they have been "repelled" might miss the point if the terrorists' intention was to attack and run. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: Why Do People Dislike Abba Kyari by 4Play(m): 5:00pm On Apr 18, 2020 |
He might turn out to have been one of the saner more intelligent personalities than the alternatives in this government. |
| Politics › African Community Targeted In China Virus Crackdown by 4Play(op): 1:11pm On Apr 13, 2020 |
Laurie CHEN April 11, 2020https://www.barrons.com/news/african-community-targeted-in-china-virus-crackdown-01586597104? |
| Politics › Re: Can Our Government Just Lift Some Ban,like Spain(pic) by 4Play(m): 12:56pm On Apr 13, 2020*. Modified: 7:13pm On Apr 13, 2020 |
psucc:You are right, the lockdown will collapse if it's not lifted as people will defy it out of desperation. However, you still need to officially lift it to have establishments like banks and shops operate. Those who want to remain indoors can do so. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: Can Our Government Just Lift Some Ban,like Spain(pic) by 4Play(m): 12:54pm On Apr 13, 2020 |
SocialJustice:The lockdown in Nigeria is a classic example of copycat policy making. A lockdown with no discernible programme for mass testing and tracking or distribution of face masks, by a government too financially constrained to offset the economic downturn will generate a humanitarian disaster worse than coronavirus. We simply cannot afford a lockdown - both individual citizens and the government. If lockdowns are lifted, those like you who want to remain indoors can do so. But most need to be out to fend for themselves. 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: How Nigeria Recorded Its Highest Non-oil Exports Ever In 2019 by 4Play(m): 10:05am On Apr 12, 2020 |
This is the CBN's governor in 2016 commenting on non-oil export total of $10.53bn in 2014: “The low level of export loans has no doubt contributed to a large extent to the decline in non-oil export revenue receipt from $10.53 billion in 2014 to $4.39 billion in 2015,” Emefiele said.https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/cbn-worries-as-non-oil-exports-income-slumps-by-over-6bn-in-one-year/ In December 2019, the CBN governor talked about doubling non-oil export in 2020 to $4bn: (Ecofin Agency) - The Central Bank of Nigeria will intensify its policy measures to reach $4 billion in non-oil revenues next year, Governor Godwin Emefiele (pictured) announced last weekend. This is double the non-oil export revenue achieved this year ($2 billion).https://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/0312-40725-nigeria-targets-4bln-in-non-oil-export-revenues-next-year |
| Politics › Re: 800 Billion Naira Will Be Needed To Pay 40 Million BVN Registered Accounts A Tot by 4Play(m): 7:45pm On Apr 02, 2020 |
The FG can't afford to pay Nigerians a reasonable amount so the sensible thing would be not to have a lockdown. The lockdown can create a humanitarian crisis that will kill more people than the actual deaths from coronavirus. |
| Politics › Re: Why Not Curfew Instead Of Lockdown? by 4Play(m): 7:56pm On Mar 30, 2020 |
helinues:There is no plan other than to copy the west. They need to consider how long the lockdown is intended for and whether they expect the virus is going to disappear after the lockdown? There is no reliable means of measuring progress as there aren't enough tests or test kits available. If someone in a village in Benue feels unwell, where do they go for testing? This partly explains why the positive cases are disproportionately made up of the political elite - they are conducting tests on only a tiny segment of the population. In the west, part of the rationale for locking down is that not doing so risks overwhelming the public health system particularly given that their population is skewed towards elderly people. We have no public health system to speak of in Nigeria and a largely young population who won't be affected by this. Rather than locking down the country and subjecting an impoverished populace to more hunger and deprivation, our leaders to stop copying measures seen on CNN. The lockdown is not sustainable and we ought to work within the limitations/constraints of our society. PS: Curfew as a substitute for lockdown is pointless. If a lockdown is ineffectual, a half-measure such as a curfew is even more so. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: COVID-19: My Position On Economy Misreported – Tinubu by 4Play(m): 12:42pm On Mar 30, 2020 |
Spare a thought for those who spent the last few days defending money printing because they thought Tinubu was in support of it. 3 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: Tinubu To Donate N200m To Contain Coronavirus by 4Play(m): 10:27am On Mar 30, 2020 |
One can think of this, as with many of the other donations, as a loan to Nigerians which the donor is going to collect back with interest. 1 Like |
| Health › Re: What Do You Think Will Be The After Effect Of COVID-19 On Many Countries? by 4Play(m): 10:24am On Mar 30, 2020 |
moralistic:Things will be more expensive because of the oil price crash and its effects on our Naira. |
| Health › Re: Trying To Get Tested For Coronavirus By NCDC In Abuja: An Experience by 4Play(m): 10:59pm On Mar 29, 2020 |
Without a national program of nationwide testing and tracing, there is no point in a lockdown. This is what I raised in my thread: https://www.nairaland.com/5760631/what-nigerias-covid-19-strategy-rationale If you are only testing a handful of people, primarily the political elite, there is not much to gain from asking every Tom, Dick, and Harry to stay indoors. 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: #BuhariResign Trends Worldwide: Millions Calls For President's Resignation by 4Play(m): 10:38pm On Mar 28, 2020 |
His resignation is justified as he is barely "presiding" rendering his title of President a misnomer. That being said, Nigeria's abject state has more to it than the individual occupying the role of president. As with GEJ, there is every chance that the person who succeeds Buhari would be just as bad or even worse. We need a clear consensus on where we have gone wrong: too much emphasis on zero-sum tribal/religious rivalries, boneheaded economic policies, fetishization of the salvatory merits of a strong leader instead of building strong institutions, etc. PS: People should be mindful that this so-called Iranian cleric is a huckster and stop feeding his ego. He is aligned to a lot of obnoxious far-right elements who don't wish us the best. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: Print More Naira Notes - Tinubu Tells FG by 4Play(m): 9:57pm On Mar 28, 2020 |
rusher14:Nigeria can do what it wants including adopting ill-thought policies but Nigeria will be poorer for it. And intellectually stunted people like you will be back pondering futilely why Nigeria is not developing and why poverty is endemic. The CBN, like many African central banks, has a long and futile history of money printing. Some would even argue Emefiele's CBN has been doing this sneakily. Nothing good will come out of it for Nigeria. Never mind the covid-19 epidemic, there is an epidemic of economic illiteracy that has a stranglehold on Nigeria's middle class of which you are a shining example. 5 Likes 3 Shares |
| Politics › Re: Print More Naira Notes - Tinubu Tells FG by 4Play(m): 9:32pm On Mar 28, 2020 |
rusher14:If you are not conversant with a subject matter, it is entirely sensible not to opine on it instead of highlighting that you are an obstinate ignoramus. You don't know about quantitative easing other than hearing about its implementation in developed economies. There are Americans who worry that QE can cause inflation or hyperinflation but mainstream opinion amongst economists is that it is safe to implement it given deflationary pressures building up in the economy. Nigeria is not in the same position as the US, the UK or Japan. These countries' 10-year government debt attract interest rates less than 1% per annum. In Japan, Germany and Switzerland for instance, interest rates are negative for 10-year government debt. This means creditors lend money to the government for 10 years and pay the government interest on it! Do you know anyone who would lend Nigeria money on anything close to those terms? 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Print More Naira Notes - Tinubu Tells FG by 4Play(m): 9:18pm On Mar 28, 2020 |
Oshigun:No economist of repute is suggesting Nigeria should print money. We are in a wholly different economic environment from OECD countries who can do quantitative easing. Don't fool yourself into thinking nobody has ever tried money printing in Africa. It's a tried and failed measure. We are not at the point where we can pull it off. In terms of what we can do to offset the downturn in the economy, we need to start thinking of economic liberalisation (deregulation and privatization) to attract forex and maintain as much as possible economic confidence. Nothing we can do in the short run unless we do what I suggested about covid-19: which is bravely let it play out without locking down the economy. 5 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: Print More Naira Notes - Tinubu Tells FG by 4Play(m): 9:10pm On Mar 28, 2020 |
Wasky101:What has being an accountant to do with being knowledgeable about economics? By stating we should be printing more money, he has clearly demonstrated cluelessness about the subject. If you are going to appeal to credentials, there are plenty of accomplished Nigerian economists whose views you can consult. 3 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: Print More Naira Notes - Tinubu Tells FG by 4Play(m): 9:04pm On Mar 28, 2020 |
rusher14:It's funny how people who accuse others of being badly educated are themselves badly educated. Yours is a prime example of the saying that a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. You have managed to attain some vague familiarity with the policy of quantitative easing (QE) but clearly have no idea of conditions under which it is feasible. QE helps in economies facing low inflation (almost in deflation territory) and negative interest rates. To avoid a deflationary spiral, central banks do QE to keep inflation from going into deflation. Nigeria and most African/developing countries have a different problem - stagflation. This is where inflation increases as the economy goes into recession so printing more money turns you into Venezuela or Zimbabwe pretty fast. 4 Likes 2 Shares |
| Politics › Re: Print More Naira Notes - Tinubu Tells FG by 4Play(m): 8:49pm On Mar 28, 2020 |
Masking:You can do this safely where inflation is almost non-existent, the economy is at the zero lower bound. This is the case with most western economies where prices are relatively stable. Money printing (quantitative easing) by central banks is the purchase of assets like government and corporate bonds by the central banks to increase the money supply into the economy. You absolutely cannot do this safely in Nigeria where inflation is skyrocketing and the currency is already under pressure as you will generate a Venezuela or Zimbabwe style hyperinflation scenario. This problem of copying western solutions for Nigeria, witness the widespread lockdowns over coronavirus, will cost us dearly. 3 Likes 1 Share |
| Health › What Is Nigeria's Covid-19 Strategy & Rationale? by 4Play(op): 11:59am On Mar 28, 2020*. Modified: 7:27pm On Apr 02, 2020 |
With the mass lockdowns being recommended by governments (state and Federal) across Nigeria, has anyone really thought through what we are aiming to achieve? In the west, lockdowns seem to be propelled by the idea of slowing the spread of the virus to buy more time for more people to be tested and traced for isolation and or treatment, and for vaccines/medication to be developed. This makes sense, how viable it is is open to debate. In the meantime, the economic downsides are mitigated by monetary and fiscal stimulus. In Nigeria, we have aped the same lockdowns tactic but with no programme of mass testing, it's not clear what the goal is. How long is the lockdown supposed to last for and how are people supposed to cope with the economic difficulties in the meantime? Without mass testing, we seem to be waiting for vaccines to be developed which is probably at least a year away. Is Nigeria going to lockdown for at least a year? Given our resource constraints and demographic profile, we need to adopt a different strategy from the west. In respect of the demographics, with a disproportionately young population who are known to be largely unaffected by covid-19, the overwhelming majority of Nigerians will come out of this unscathed. We don't have a public health system or infrastructure that needs protecting from covid-19 patients as access to hospitals is limited in any case. My proposed strategy would be largely to carry on life as normal. By all means protect the vulnerable - those with pre-existing condition, the elderly, pregnant women, etc - but we need to be mindful that lockdowns in Nigeria will be ineffectual in curtailing the virus's spread but devastating for the economy. For once, Buhari's penchant to be inactive was probably correct (admittedly inadvertently). 1 Like |
| Business › Re: Naira Depreciates To ₦410 Per Dollar As Local Currency Weakens by 4Play(m): 8:49am On Mar 28, 2020 |
kikero:If you believe the NBS's stats, Nigeria went into recession in 2016. Not in the second half of 2014 when much of the oil price collapse happened or in 2015. I know there was a further temporary dip in oil prices in 2016 but there were other issues affecting economic confidence such as the fixed exchange rate regime and the lack of liberalisation policies (privatisation and deregulation) to attract foreign investment which could have partly offset a transitory dip in oil prices by lifting economic confidence and attracting forex inflows. A significant fall in oil prices shouldn't necessarily lead to recession if we had allowed the currency to depreciate instead of maintaining multiple exchange rates which led to forex scarcity. The economy was bound to slow down significantly but it wasn't bound to experience contraction in output. I suppose your point is that Buhari is no more to blame than other Nigerian presidents who have maintained a suite of policies that have led to dependency on oil. But a president who fails to change direction in response to a fall in that commodity his nation depends on, who actually increases that dependency by insisting on maintaining an unrealistically high exchange rate value bears a great deal of responsibility for the collapse in business confidence and contraction in economic output that results. 6 Likes 4 Shares |
but all that baroque looking furniture is a no no for me ..I like my furniture Bahaus or minimalist classy