4Play's Posts
Nairaland Forum › 4Play's Profile › 4Play's Posts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 (of 278 pages)
eyinjuege:It's common sense. Most women have nothing to gain from making rape accusations as they will, irrespective of the credibility of their accusations, receive a backlash. So apart from a rare few bitter women, the mentally unbalanced or opportunists chasing celebrities, the vast majority of accusations are true and only constitute a tip of the iceberg. |
I found this interesting article which claims that the fuel we import into Nigeria is of a lower quality than that produced by illegal refineries in the Niger-Deltahttps://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jul/01/petrol-sold-to-nigeria-from-europe-dirtier-than-black-market-bush-fuel |
This is why I thought the lockdowns in Nigeria are counterproductive. The economic hardship it will cause will be severe, longlasting and devastating on people's health. In turn, the impact of the lockdown on the spread of coronavirus will be negligible. |
koning:See below: But when the time came, Onyeama failed the entrance exams. Another Nigerian boy, Tokunbo Akintola, thus became the first black student in Eton, attracting global media attention.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53062502 |
thesilentone:Hedge funds won't take money from small investors - this is not a thread that caters to the Dangotes or Otedolas. The assertion that retail investors - the people on this thread - struggle over the long term when buying individual stocks is so well known that it is odd we are even debating this. No one should be investing in the stock market without being aware of this. As for Buffett not buying indexes, you seem to miss the point. You buy indexes because you are not Buffett - no one here has his track record no matter how much we congratulate ourselves because of brief successes. By the way, here is Buffet's advice: Buffett is a master of value investing wherein patience, discipline, and risk aversion are the essential ingredients for success. But he acknowledges that individual stock picking is not for everybody. In fact, most average, long-term investors would benefit from a much simpler strategy, he says: investing in low-cost index funds.https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/warren-buffett-recommends-index-funds-for-most-investors I worry, knowing Nigerians' penchant for get-rich-quick schemes, that many will see the stock market as a route to riches, like the BetNaija trend, and invest in an aggressive style. We've already seen the chap from Trove attacked by an investor who lost money and it was interesting the comments he made about the investing style of many, I assume his clients. If we glamourise investing, most people here will suffer in a country where many are not financially buoyant. We have to acknowledge it is tough for retail investors and that the evidence supports this. My view is that novices should avoid stocks, many experts would even say all retail investors should avoid individual stocks but I recognise that you can become pretty good at investing with good education on it. Arguably, part of acquiring an education is by experience in buying stocks but if you go down this route, think of your investment fund as tuition fees and only do it with money you can afford to lose. PS: I have already mentioned in my earlier post what indexes an investor can buy. There are a lot more and I am a bit wary of people wanting to be spoonfed with names of what to buy. It's up to each interested person to investigate what index funds would be appropriate and what is available on the platforms they are using. |
Alaska90:You will find some ETFs that track the broad indices like QQQ for the NASDAQ-100 and SPY for S&P 500. There are also some that track particular sectors like XLF for banks and SMH for semiconductor companies. Newbies should start with indices whilst they read up on investing and as their investing capital and knowledge grow, they could consider the more risky bets on individual companies. If you think of the logic of it, buying an individual company is the equivalent of putting all eggs in one basket, even if you buy several such companies. In contrast, if you buy an index of 500 companies you have good diversification which is crucial for risk management even if you forgo the small probability of making a killing in individual stocks. This article highlights the problem though I don't share the bond buying view. Most stocks will cost you money. An even larger number make for lousy bets; instead of being rewarded for taking some risk, you’d likely be better off buying risk-free bonds. At least, that’s the case in the US, said University of Arizona finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder in 2017, following a groundbreaking study examining the performance of almost 26,000 US stocks over a 90-year period.https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/most-stocks-are-flops-just-1-of-stocks-account-for-all-market-gains-1.3973200?mode=amp So only buy individual stocks if you are well experienced and can afford to lose much of your capital! PS: In bear markets and again for those with money to burn and good investing experience, there are short ETFs you can buy if you are using one of those Naija apps like Chaka and Trove. Examples: Short S&P 500 (SH), Short Russell 2000 (RWM). |
One key thing that hasn't been mentioned here for beginners, and arguably everyone, is that you are much better off buying an index like the S&P500 than trying to pick individual stocks. Yes, it's "boring" compared to imagining you are running a hedge fund or outsmarting Warren Buffett but if you want longevity (to thrive over decades) in this game, boring is the way to go. |
I wish this were true but unfortunately parts of the report seem made up. |
nameo:What they ignore is that borrowing has to be sustainable. It's not a question of whether the country needs to borrow, but the scale of the borrowing weighed against the tax revenues needed to service the debt. When the oil price initially collapsed in the second half of 2014, Iweala started talking about the need to implement austerity (i.e., cut costs) and it was in that context that she made the (in)famous comment about borrowing to pay salaries. From the beginning, this government has taken the path of expansive fiscal spending as a way of stimulating the economy. But you cannot stimulate your way out of a currency crisis. The more you spend, the more you increase naira supply in the midst of a dollar shortage putting your currency under more pressure (too much naira chasing too few dollars). What it needed to do at the beginning was reduce the cost of government. Too few Nigerians (mainly politicians and govt workers) actually benefit from the government anyway. Fuel subsidy has to go too, ditto the currency regime that fixes the exchange rate to the dollar. To illustrate how something like the currency regime has been wasteful. The government's spending is mainly in naira so it would convert oil export dollars to naira. If it converts it at the then fixed rate of N197 to $1, the government was effectively shortchanging itself as the market exchange rate was over N300 whilst committing to borrowing the shortfall. So the government's expansive spending increased naira supply and facilitated naira depreciation but by using an artificially inflated exchange rate it had to borrow more than necessary to meet its spending commitments which worsened debt sustainability. The government hasn't given serious thought to economic reforms that would attract foreign nvestment like privatization (why are the Lagos ports run by government?) and deregulation (think of the downstream oil sector). The government's state-led interventionist model relies on government spending to do the heavy lifting of revitalizing the economy. It is this way of thinking that condemns Nigeria to a debt crisis. |
I remember doing a thread about this in 2017. At the time we spent 2/3rds of revenue on debt servicing and I noted how unsustainable it is. https://www.nairaland.com/3835219/fg-spends-two-thirds-tax-revenue The usual excuse is to point to our infrastructural deficits and how we need to borrow to address it. This is the mistake we made in the 1970s and early 80s and which led to a 2 decade slump in the economy. No matter how bad your infrastructure is, your debt load still needs to be sustainable. You can't keep increasing debt payments faster than your tax revenues are increasing without running into trouble. |
Iamsoulomon:Companies also cut their dividends so dividend yields calculated on the basis of present dividends may create unwarranted expectations. |
ebuka1997:I think the Fed was crucial in stopping and reversing that initial plunge in March. But from here on, there has to be positive news flow re the pandemic and or the economy for the market to resume its upward climb otherwise we will just go sideways for the foreseeable future or resume the journey lower. All the talks of a second wave and disappointing economic data from China are not helping. |
That first picture is a poor photoshop. This is the downside to clinging on to traditional beliefs and views that facilitate evil. |
DexterousOne:I know, the Feds actions can keep companies alive when they should have gone bust. Instead, you have zombie companies hoarding precious capital and market share as they continue to operate inefficiently and barely making money. A lot of the airlines come to mind as their long-term outlook remain dire. It think the dysfunction/inefficiencies are identifiable on a selective basis to specific zombie companies and assets, but in general, we shouldn't be too pessimistic about the long-term economic health of the global economy or the US stock market. |
DexterousOne:The broad market indices reflects the likelihood that the economy (both the US and global) will be in a much better place in 2 years time than it is today. The economy did not suffer an endogenous shock, i.e., where internal factors like excess credit growth causes the economy to topple over. The economy suffered because of the coronavirus and will recover once the virus is under control. Yes, there are companies with junk credit (there always are) but the Fed has bought relatively little junk credit and definitely no stocks. Investors are looking at the long-term picture and asking: What would earnings for Microsoft, Apple, JP Morgan etc look like in 2 or 3 years? They are buying stocks accordingly. |
DexterousOne:No, the stock market broadly is pricing in future economic fundamentals. The stock market doesn't wait for the economy to completely recover before rising. It rises in anticipation of economic recovery. There are some "mispricing" here and there as we have seen quite a huge influx of retail investors for a variety of reasons including US investors who due to lockdowns are dabbling in the stock market. But in general, I think the stock market is doing what it usually does - reflect the net present value of future earnings. |
These reductions are paid for through corruption, waste and smuggling. The corrupt leaders have a strong incentive to fix the price of fuel at a level lower than the market price and our neighbours (Benin, Niger and Cameroon) price as it's through the subsidy that they pilfer funds. If the government wanted to help the masses, they could have kept free healthcare and free education which were introduced (at least in parts of Nigeria) way before fuel subsidy was introduced in the 1970s. It is because this fuel price setting by the government is a lucrative avenue for government officials to steal that it has survived for so long. |
DuBLINGreenb:He hasn't actually done anything other than direct the fixing of potholes. So it's a celebration of his expressed intention to fix roads, not the actual fixing of roads. Lacking achievements, Nigerian leaders now propagandise on the basis of their wish to achieve. |
Just when the main source of revenue - oil - has collapsed, the economy is going into a recession and the country is in the middle of a public health crisis, public sector workers demand increases in wages. People will use the corruption excuse - that politicians are corrupt- to justify unsustainable increases in wages. The reality is that state governments in the coming months will struggle to pay current wages, never mind accommodate an increase. |
It's because of comments like this that the NBC poverty stats have gone even more haywire than normal. |
This whole indecent dressing leads to sexual assault nonsense forgets that up until relatively recently, our ancestors walked around unclothed. It would have meant that assault was the order of the day. However, if you study all those newly discovered tribes such as the Koma tribe there is no indication that the women are habitually assaulted. If anything, clothes can arouse the mind as to what lies beneath, a sense of mystery, which for men lacking self-control leads to rape. |
ebuka1997:I think Boeing will track airline stocks. I am not investing in airlines or Boeing as I am not convinced how all this will play out. Even if people start flying again, at what capacity do airlines become profitable as it's might not be enough for 80-90% of passengers to return. The airline industry is a low margin business so anything short of full capacity is hardly profitable. These stocks are for people playing short-term bounces and with an appetite for risk. |
arduino:I haven't had the time to check it but I suspect JetBlue (JBLU) also has a relatively solid balance sheet. So them and Southwest (LUV). However, they didn't fall by much in the first place relative to some of the others like American Airlines (AA) or United Airlines (UAL). So the more solid the balance sheets, the less spectacular any price rises will be because people have been buying such stocks since March. Talking about good balance sheets - there are also Accenture (ACN), Visa (V), Mastercard (M), Automatic Data Processing (ADP). There are lot of them, particularly in the technology sector, but again don't expect much price rises. Has anyone looked at apparel stocks? People might be able to start shopping more clothes as lockdowns ease. |
The independent probe is happening. The African Development Bank’s board agreed to an independent probe of its president, Akinwumi Adesina, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin rejected an internal investigation that cleared him of allegations of favoritism, according to two people familiar with deliberations on the matter.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-26/u-s-treasury-pressure-leads-to-new-probe-of-african-bank-chief |
Olominira: SIRTee15:You guys like using this emotion-laden conspiratorial style of argumentation. Everything is a conspiracy and allegations of facts are turned into questions of motive as Hannah Arendt would say. Did he appoint his brother-in-law or not and did it follow due process? Same goes for the contract allegedly awarded. All I get is diatribes about French and US conspirators. At the heart of it, the Americans (apparently, they are also part of the conspiracy) are saying that this should be investigated independently and not by the ethics committee. This is not too high a hurdle to accomplish. All the things you say about French motives could all be true without being mutually incompatible with the claim that Adesina acted unethically. Corruption allegations are often used as a weapon to target our enemies - we see a lot of that in Nigeria. But the possibility of this does not dispel the need for a proper independent investigation, it makes it even more compelling for such an investigation to be carried out. |
I managed to find the Le Monde Afrique article which provides a bit more details. See excerpts: Relatives of President Adesina have been appointed to strategic positions within this Abidjan-based institution, which notably manages public money from African taxpayers. But these appointments flout the strict rules of recruitment, insist the whistleblowers. They cite the case of a friend of Mr. Adesina appointed to a managerial position, yet still occupied by his predecessor. This forced the AfDB briefly to pay two salaries. Another, a childhood friend this time, was awarded a contract for $ 326,000 (about 300,000 euros) in 2017 for his Nigerian communications company, before being recruited to the AfDB for a few months later. However, during an internal audit of the institution, the contract was reported as potentially falling under a“Conflict of interest” .https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/04/05/a-la-banque-africaine-de-developpement-le-president-adesina-conteste-par-des-employes_6035653_3212.html PS: Use Google Translate or other translation software to convert the article from French to English. |
agabusta:Those details were apparently furnished in the original complaint - part of a 12 page report detailing the allegations. Here is some more news on the original allegation: the letter, more than a dozen pages long and dated April 2020, bank staff also complained of "preferential treatment for Nigeria and Nigerians".https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/african-bank-chief-accused-of-multiple-violations |
gamaliel9:People will learn the hard way that over trading is a major loss maker, though the key source of revenues for the brokers. Holding indices is optimal, or at worst a basket of long term investments based on a mix of fundamental and technical analysis. Trying to time markets works sometimes but if you do it long enough, you will lose money. The market is seductive as you have waves of success - many (perhaps most) people who have been dabbling in the markets since March would have made money. But eventually the market will turn whilst people keep doing what brought them profits before without realizing that market conditions have changed. If one can't resist the urge to trade frequently, the best thing to do is keep say 10% of your portfolio in short-term bets. That way you enjoy (endure) the thrills and frills of frequent trading whilst enjoying the bigger profits that can come with investing for the long-term. As the legendary trader Jesse Livermore put it: “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets..."https://www.varchev.com/en/jesse-livermore-traders-who-can-both-be-right-and-sit-tight-are-uncommon/ |
tipscogreen:It seems to me that the world will benefit from being more like the Yorubas in this regard. |
fairfora:It's a shame people in Nigeria applaud the Dangotes who benefit from the rigged system allowing them exclusive access to forex at cheaper prices. This issue was highlighted a few years ago: LAGOS/LONDON (Reuters) - As Nigeria grapples with a foreign exchange crisis, one person stands out in the scramble to obtain hard currency: Aliko Dangote, Africa's richest man.https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-nigeria-forex-dangote-insight-idUKKCN0Z90PT |
LukasPodolski:There is no such thing as host between citizens of a country. That is the reasoning of a backward person. Can you imagine a Londoner claiming he is hosting a Geordie from Newcastle, UK who moved to London? You won't be able to utter such drivel in civilised settings. You have 2 choices, you can either secede and in that case treat non-indigenes as foreigners or accept the necessary implication of being in one country: that citizens of the country who have legitimately acquired residence have a right of stay in any part of the country. This your host/guest lingo is a symptom of a benighted bigoted mindset that helps condemn the country to remain a failure. Look at that London example you gave of Sadiq Khan - a Muslim son of a Pakistani driver. I have heard non-whites say repeatedly that they built London after the 2nd world war. I saw Dianne Abbot MP say it on BBC Question Time. Factually, I think it's hogwash as is Igbos claiming they built Lagos but to suggest that it is good grounds for attacking an ethnicity speaks to your barbaric inclinations. There is also a qualm I have with people who keep pursuing the "we must develop our region" line. If you actually develop your region to the exclusion of other regions, those other regions' people will eventually relocate to yours. Given that demography is destiny, if the birth rates of the undeveloped region's people is higher than yours, with exponential growth, your region's population will be supplanted (within and outside your region). This is why I am keen on infrastructure investment in the North and anti-poverty programs up North because I recognize that an underdeveloped North will pose dire security and economic challenges to the South. At some point, you have to recognize that you are either fully invested in the one country you actually have with no naive deliberations on "our tribe vs others" or you go all out for secession. Fighting one another while tied to a country is like the organs of the body fighting each other for superiority. |