₦airaland Forum

My common sense price target for UBA

N24.00-N31.00
Dividend estimate N2.00-N2.50



Based on my common sense strategy. Do kindly do all Due Diligence. This is not an Investment Advice

onegentleguy:
A lot will depend on your entry price and what trade-setup you had in place (plan) in view of your investment personality and objective.

If you've met your target, especially if you were among the early birds (ref: N2 to N6 entry) , you might want to reduce your stake by 40-50% and redirect the funds to another more value accretive asset. (we already highlighted some of them here)

I remember advising some folks (privately) to reduce their stake in UCAP and put the funds in UBA/ACCESS (60-40% portfolio weighting in favour of UBA), DS/NASCON, OANDO, WAPCO and CHAMS (still trading at the support/demand zone of 85-90k following the retracement from previous YtDH of N1.3+ at the time)... and I think they've been better off for it.

This is one of the reason I always refer to portfolio weighting with stock selection and fund allocation. The goal should always be to seek to earn more at any given time.

Even with fundamentally healthy coys you don't necessarily need to hold for too long, especially if the asset has achieved/delivered a great reward margin or where the gap between potential return and projected risk has reduced compared to other select healthy names. (ref: assets intrinsic value leaves less MoS compared to CMP)

You can always rebalance your portfolio by allocating some funds to assets that can do better.
UCAP is still trading at a slight deviation from intrinsic value. (ref: FVE @ 21.9) but any jack will agree that there are of course a few better choices right now.

Btw, there are rumors that there could be a potential bonus distribution for YE, 2023, hence my advice to sell only 40-50% of your holding. And depending on the asset price, I will look to exit the balance of 50-60% before or after their YE, 2023 report.
Like I always tell folks; A bonus issue is often a measure that replaces QUALITY with QUANTITY and until you can establish that that quantity is also of good quality, be cautious.
It's like a man who offers to gift you with 3 apples in exchange for the 2 you already have OR buying it off completely for a cash consideration. On the surface, the non-cash exchange might seem of more value, but It'll be better to let him buy it, if the 2 you had is of better/healthier quality than the offered 3. ...especially if there's a high plausibility that the said 3 could go bad in days. (near term view)
In fact, the wider the margin btw previous OS (quality) and post bonus OS (quantity), the more cautious you should be.

Disclosure: This is just me saying what I would've have done having a stake in UCAP.
NOT an investment advice. Due diligence still applies as always.

Good advice. Thank you.

Mfunkynation:
You are right!
COVID was a situation that happened everywhere!
but currently, what is happening that will make the price to fall back to that level now?

The future is pregnant.

undead:
I am very sad. I lost a lot of money in Oando. I cannot sell my shares. I have a big problem. Don't misunderstand me. I started investing in stocks this year. I bought Japaul Gold, Transcorp, and Dangote Sugar. I doubled my money every time. My 4 million naira became 32 million naira. But now I cannot withdraw even 1 million naira. This is my life savings. I saved this money for six years. Please, what can I do? Ncha na acho e ba efi n'anya.

CC yMcy56, PETERiCHY, Locotrader, megawealth01, Ginalex, Ogg, prophet

Have you heard the phrase “ profit taking” ? There is a world of difference between paper gain and cashed out profit or loss. You have no claim to a profit or loss till you sell. N4mill has gotten nothing till you sell. When you sell, then we can compute your gain or loss. There is also a world of difference between girl friend and wife. Yes, till you marry her. Lesson here is TAKE PROFIT. YOU MUST KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TRADING . But if for dividends then whether the price soars or plunges it’s of no consequence. Not having a clear plan is simply gambling.

My take.

The key thing is never buy chicken without checking the weight. That’s simply valuation. Don’t buy any stock with price above the ideal for its weight/value. And , even after buying, sell once it’s start losing weight or likely to lose weight. Monitor your investment. Check reports, follow the news. Profit is profit whether 10% or 100%. Determine what appeals to you, hit it and leave the queue unless you only care for dividends. And even with that, be ready to jump ship when the future prospects become not so certain.

With all the complaints about some stockbrokers, I think I can rate mine high. I have been with them for a little over 14 years without a single adverse incident.

aj8:
I have the following on my buy list based on my Common Sense Entry
Wema bank entry point below N5.00. My Target 6.5-8.00
Berger Paint entry point below N10.00 . My Target N12.00-15.00
Betaglass entry point below N35.00. My Target 48.00-52.00-60.00
I sold Nestle Friday. Buy back if below N350.00 Will review if new data comes in.
My UBA target still N19.00 . Will buy more only if it dips below N12.00. I Expect it to have the most Blow out income statement for H1 of the banks based on their Foreign Currency Translation Reserves.( Second highest FCTR (N40bill plus) after First Bank’s (N50bill)


Please do your due diligence. Above are my Common Sense Entry Points.

UBA is not your mate!!! Let’s hope it’s a turning point. The 50k interim signals the willingness to change their dividend policy.

Godisfaithful:
For those looking for bargain in Nigeria Stock Exchange market, be patient. There’s no need to rush to buy anything for now…let the trade comes to you. Don’t chase because panic selling going to set in soon. Patient…

Panic from what?

I have the following on my buy list based on my Common Sense Entry
Wema bank entry point below N5.00. My Target 6.5-8.00
Berger Paint entry point below N10.00 . My Target N12.00-15.00
Betaglass entry point below N35.00. My Target 48.00-52.00-60.00
I sold Nestle Friday. Buy back if below N350.00 Will review if new data comes in.
My UBA target still N19.00 . Will buy more only if it dips below N12.00. I Expect it to have the most Blow out income statement for H1 of the banks based on their Foreign Currency Translation Reserves.( Second highest FCTR (N40bill plus) after First Bank’s (N50bill)


Please do your due diligence. Above are my Common Sense Entry Points.

Market may react positively to this credentials

Ministerial list 1

Popson92:
How do you check the current prices please?

#
I am not sure I have understood your question but if you meant what is today’s current price, I suggest you check on the NGX platform with your stock broker. However, if you meant how I deduce the My Common Sense Entry Point, I would just say..COMMON SENSE based on what the market is doing which is a function of expectations of those buying into it. Call it support and resistance but really in a layman understanding it’s the meeting point of demand and supply. Think in the same line as one buying crayfish from a market less on TA .

yeddy99:
How do you reconcile figure of almost X4 when naira only did approx X2?

Also note that the X4 accommodates the initial sum. Without the initial it would be a ratio of 53.667:156.495=2.9

yeddy99:
How do you reconcile figure of almost X4 when naira only did approx X2?

I thought over this too.
But maybe some metrics we are not aware of… we are not even sure what rates they used for the initial translation.

aj8:
Guess which big banks rank the top 3 with the highest Foreign Currency Translation Reserves and their order as at 1st January 2023 ?

1. First Bank N53.7bill
2. UBA. N41.7bill
3. Access N30.1bill
4. Zenith Bank N24.95bill
5. FCMB. N12.5bill
6. GTCO. (-N4.bill)

All as at 1st January 2023.

Should influence income statement in H1and[b] if the ratio of First Bank is anything to go by i.e N53.667 to N210.16 bill = x3.916 [/b], the maths could be interesting. Let’s see how the maths plays out with Zenith Bank H1 first.

aj8:
Big banks Foreign Currency Translation Reserves could predict what to expect with respect to the FVC boost in their income statement. I will first share that of First Bank group and subsequently those of the other big banks to give some insight into what we might possibly expect. Here we go:

First Bank Q1 vs H1

Guess which big banks rank the top 3 with the highest Foreign Currency Translation Reserves and their order as at 1st January 2023 ?

Big banks Foreign Currency Translation Reserves could predict what to expect with respect to the FVC boost in their income statement. I will first share that of First Bank group and subsequently those of the other big banks to give some insight into what we might possibly expect. Here we go:

First Bank Q1 vs H1

Boshins:
anyone that picked japual at 1.47 is a learner. He will learn with time.

Research! Research!! Research!!! A must to minimize risks. Caution ⚠️ Need to filter noise.

lostinHeaven:
Morgans BID/OFFER table for UBA makes no sense

Do kindly share a snap shot.

I am buying more Stanbic @57.1500. The other banks are responding positively to the prospects . Target now N90.00

aj8:
Net gains or losses on financial instruments held at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (FVTPL) refer to the overall changes in the fair value of these instruments over a specific period. Financial instruments held at FVTPL are assets or liabilities that the company chooses to measure at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized in the income statement.

Here's a breakdown of the key components:

Financial Instruments: These are assets or liabilities that are categorized as "held for trading" or are designated as FVTPL by the company. These instruments can include stocks, bonds, derivatives, and other marketable securities.
Fair Value: Fair value represents the estimated market value of the financial instrument on a specific reporting date. It is the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants.
Net Gains or Losses: Net gains occur when the fair value of financial instruments increases over the reporting period, while net losses occur when the fair value decreases. The net gains or losses are calculated by comparing the fair value of the financial instruments at the end of
the reporting period with their fair value at the beginning of the period.
Recognition in Income Statement: The net gains or losses on financial instruments held at FVTPL are recognized in the company's income statement. They contribute to the overall profit or loss for the period.
It's important to note that holding financial instruments at FVTPL can lead to greater earnings volatility, as the fair value changes are directly reflected in the income statement. This is in contrast to other accounting categories like "Available for Sale" or "Held to Maturity," where changes in fair value may not immediately impact the income statement.

The treatment of financial instruments, including those held at FVTPL, is subject to accounting standards and regulations, such as International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which may vary depending on the country and the specific circumstances of the company.


Credited to chatGPT.

In simple terms
E.g a company that holds $1,000,000 bonds @Naira value of N450, must if now the USD is valued at N800 , must reflect the difference as gain on the income statement. That would in the above example, add N350,000,000 as gain thereby affecting the final income statement

Net gains or losses on financial instruments held at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (FVTPL) refer to the overall changes in the fair value of these instruments over a specific period. Financial instruments held at FVTPL are assets or liabilities that the company chooses to measure at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized in the income statement.

Here's a breakdown of the key components:

Financial Instruments: These are assets or liabilities that are categorized as "held for trading" or are designated as FVTPL by the company. These instruments can include stocks, bonds, derivatives, and other marketable securities.
Fair Value: Fair value represents the estimated market value of the financial instrument on a specific reporting date. It is the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants.
Net Gains or Losses: Net gains occur when the fair value of financial instruments increases over the reporting period, while net losses occur when the fair value decreases. The net gains or losses are calculated by comparing the fair value of the financial instruments at the end of the reporting period with their fair value at the beginning of the period.
Recognition in Income Statement: The net gains or losses on financial instruments held at FVTPL are recognized in the company's income statement. They contribute to the overall profit or loss for the period.
It's important to note that holding financial instruments at FVTPL can lead to greater earnings volatility, as the fair value changes are directly reflected in the income statement. This is in contrast to other accounting categories like "Available for Sale" or "Held to Maturity," where changes in fair value may not immediately impact the income statement.

The treatment of financial instruments, including those held at FVTPL, is subject to accounting standards and regulations, such as International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which may vary depending on the country and the specific circumstances of the company.


Credited to chatGPT.

Mpeace:
They had to release this result early to end the closed period on time before Oba takes up all the shares. If not, when last did fbnh release results this early.

First Bank is just being smart. Element of surprise. Most banks will issue similar results because of Net gains or losses on financial instruments held at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (FVTPL) . Watch out for Stanbic IBTC.

Mpeace:
Jesus, see result.
Eps from 1.55 to 5.19.
You no go see this one buy tomorrow
If they replicate this accross the othe remaining quarter, fbnh might just climb to 100/share.

Expect similar results from all the banks. A huge chunk were from Net gains or losses on financial instruments held at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (FVTPL) . Probably recalibration on the new exchange rates. Expect extreme volatility. Need for extreme caution ⚠️.

Agbalowomeri:
You came in late probably

It’s all about entry. Timing. Understanding the market you are in is key. Whether stock market or crayfish market all are markets. Buy when cheap or on sales… technical analysis or not. Understanding is key. Keep it simple.

vacanci:
From 770 to 860 is 12%.

meaning if you brought in $1000 and you want to take it back as it is, you have lost 12%.

Now the question is, what was your profit in the NGX? Your statement is only valid if you have neither lost nor gained in the NGX.

If you have lost in the NGX, then your overall loss is more than 12%
If you have gained in the NGX, then your 12% loss claimed is not valid.

example, let's convert the $1000 at 770, that will give us N770,000
N770,000 invested in the NGX must have been during this bull run going by the rate. so lets assume you had 20% (excluding charges). This gives N924,000.
N924,000 converted back to $ @860 gives $1,074

So your asertion is not right pls

For completeness, also factor the opportunity cost of holding the funds in a US bond market ( 3-5%) . The Ngx is still a good market to invest nonetheless buy at the right price. E.g assuming you had bought UBA @ 7.85…..the lyrics surely would sound different

The beauty of My COMPOUNDING STRATEGY
FROM N1,000,000
Step 0..N1,000,000
Step 1…N1,200,000
Step 2…N1,440,000
Step 3…N1,728,000
Step 4…N2,073,600
Step 5…N2,488,320
Step 6…N2,985,984
Step 10..N6,191,736

Roll over from stock to stock. Make provisions for charges too. You can hold unto any purchase you adjudge capable of another 20% price appreciation or else find another good one to roll over to. Best for those who want to build up capital or may not want to expose themselves to greater capital risks. ONLY GO FOR STOCKS WITH GOOD FUNDAMENTALS AND TRACK RECORDS . YOU CAN USE THE NGX ASI OR SECTOR INDEX TO GAUGE MOMENTUM. BUY ON DECLINE WHEN BEARISH.

You can scale up or down according to your pocket and risk appetite. Pay attention to both local and foreign news so that events don’t catch you unawares

I believe we are here to help one another. N’est pas?

Bought Stanbic at 54.1500. My COMMON SENSE BUY POINT IS N55.00. Will buy more if it falls below my entry point. Target N75.00

MY COMMON SENSE ENTRY POINT for Berger Paints as at 19-07-2023 is any price below N10.00 . TARGET above N12.00 with an upside target above 20%. I bought some units and will add more to my purchase if it falls below my initial buy point.

veecovee:
Loco, I took the risk of buying some of your japaul this morning.

Readers who can't take it should not join oo

My COMMON SENSE ENTRY POINT for Japaulgold as at 19-07-2023 is 0. TARGET NIL

Any comments?