₦airaland Forum

robobo:
looks more like jijo exiting than a shakeout though

nxt 2 -3 trading sessions wld show which it is

Good lets look at the next 2-3 trading sessions especially the days bordering the weekend (tomorrow and monday)

robobo:
.

how abt if it is a shakeout cos GTB and Zenith are on full bid?


or what do you think

I don't still know what it is exactly. Still observing.

Transcorp, FCMB, Fidelity and now UBA. JIJO guys are exiting

WE NEED THE TECHNICAL GUYS ON THIS FORUMS NOW MORE THAN EVER...

Pls what do you think about this rally from the technical point of view?

Tritri:
Am the one. ..Abi make i never sale?

Abeg don't leave your boy high and dry ooo

Where is Loco. We haven't heard from him. I hope he is not the one selling FCMB?

This rally seems to be slowing down.

The markets will always be funny. Stocks that nobody would touch with long pole are now darlings.

The next thing now is to determine before hand the exit strategies, and stick to them.

OBAGADAFFI:
This is why I was sceptical about Ashaka cement, i was expecting immediate delisting after their movement to Larafage last year.

But the company is suddenly experiencing a bullish run.

Some Wolfs of NSE are simply dumping weak/dead company on investors.

After the delisting, the conversion factor from Ashaka to Lafarge shares will 57 of Lafarge for 202 of Ashaka plus N4 for very new Lafarge share.

If Lafarge is N46, Ashaka should be around N13. The two should move in tandem. Lafarge started moving before Ashaka thats the reason for the interest in it. But Lafarge rights issue has blunted the interest.

yok:
The market seems to have left some stocks behind. If I find myself in such equity, my emotions may run high, but once your rule are broken, sorry one just need to part ways with the stock. I bought WAPCO recently, barely 2 weeks ago to be precise. Price bought including commission was NGN52.90, finally as regards whether to sell or not, to my ultimate surprise, the current closing price is just siting on the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

With this my mind is super made up to exit this loss making stock from my current holdings.
Also I have set my take profit exit for some other equities as follows:
Newrest Airservice- 4.08- This luck has ran enough. FBNH can replace this comfortably.

Please, which site did you use for the display?

locodemy:
So you bought fcmb at 0.98kobo.Hmn you get liver o.something the technicals dey show sign of 0.85kobo.Bros you don do big mistake for this one.

Which technicals showed signs of 85 kobo?

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fxuser:
- This has happened technically & quietly with the introduction of NAFEX window (investors window) !
- Using the Nigeria ETF has a gauge, foreign holdings have adjusted to the Investor window price rather than d official price
- Technically , investors have been hit wt a devaluation from N306/$ to N380/$ region
- also making Nigeria cheaper in dollar terms anyway . .

Agree. That's why the Nigeria ETF took a hit like you posted over the weekend.
A part of the devaluation bull is the 2.8% gain in all share index we saw last week and what we are seeing this week.

While we keep going for good companies, lets not forget that their fundamentals didn't suddenly change over the last two weeks.

Though I'm a fundamentalist, I've been leaning strongly on technicals last week and I think it'll be all about technicals for the fundamentally sound companies in the next 4 weeks at least.

That means we are going to be needing the services of our tecnical experts on this forum very much. Abeg fxuser, bullbear, intendy and others please weigh in for us.

Look at FCMB volumes trend today. Who bought 50million in one single transaction?
Remember what I told you guys about what I suspected in FCMB shaking out the lily livered and others buying up their shares at lower prices.

Imagine if someone like Loco had placed his shares on offer instead of adding (which is good to know), and then others also rushed to sell.

The price would have gone low to N0.8 - N0. 85 .


Only for those that sold to now be checking whether they are being followed from the village.

Progress in currency liberalization has always happened when Buhari was away.

Now he is away and people are are anticipating that the system has been loosed from its strong moorings (shackles).

Lets all stay put. We may have an Egypt loading. I'm disappointed mainly because the lower the index stays the better for me so that I can load more before the eventual devaluation. But all the same, lets enjoy the ride.

A pullback may happen if the foreign investors are not Ok with the floatation.

But see below what happened in Egypt and judge for your self whether it is not worth it playing this MMM.

Don't come here to say you JOed and missed out.

Egypt

1st Nov. 2016: EGX 30: 8,448
3rd Nov. 2016: Egypt devalues/floats currency
13th Nov. 2016: EGX 30: 10,917
30th Nov. 2016: EGX 30: 11,453
Current EGX 30: 12,934

Being in the market 2 weeks after devaluation/ floatation is key.

This is going to happen here in naija and is going to be the most important event this year.

fxuser:
FCMB

- big volume
- over 120m traded . . @loco

50m in one single transaction. Big volumes therefater. Quickly jumped in at 0.98 when I saw that. I'm now in this bus.

Here comes the DEVALUATION BULL.

Ladies and Gents, What do you think about NEWGOLD ETF? How does the ETF work?

I noticed it is one of the best performers on the NSE for the past 2 years.

Ladies and Gents, What do you think about NEWGOLD ETF? How does the ETF work? I noticed it is one of the best performers on the NSE for the past 2 years.

BullBearMkt:
...you can say that again sir!

This one wey una don see this one, person no come see am again to buy.

SOKayson:
Don't let ignorance suffocate you. Silence is dangerous. Many of you still don't understand what #TBC is all about. Many think it's MLM. Forget your qualifications, beauty and class. Ask me what TBC is all about.

Many heard about BTC many years ago but felt they know everything so they weren't perturbed to ask questions. They felt whatever they don't know isn't genuine. They felt they are geniuses. That was how they missed out while those that asked questions then and invested in BTC are millionaires and billionaires today. They are in your neighborhood but you wouldn't know. You'd only continue to wonder how they arrive at their massive wealth.
.
My name is Kay, 08162047081.
.
Remain Blessed

Find yourself another forum. You won't get anyone here.

On a lighter note, please withdraw ur bids from Fidelity and FCMB so that they can come down to my sweet spots.

Abeg, They will still rise back to higher levels where you guys like buying at.

fxuser:
UBA
- SP breaks N6
- expect minor pull back ..

Oga FXuser, Bullbear and other technical experts, did you notice how UBA smartly avoided ur technical radar from N5.2 to N5.9?

This may be the sign of an investor mopping intelligently to avoid detection.

What do you think?

Tritri:
@BullBearMkt , Did u sale ur fcmb or still holding ? Reason am asking is TA OR FA shows it's bearish.
I seems to be the only one in this fcmb but here is what i think i will average down and just sit...

As regards FCMB, where is Loco who claimed to know all and all about this stock and was almost swearing by the Q1 2017 results, what if that brought in some people who probably thought he was very sure.

Only for him to go into another hiatus after results release. The first hiatus being after the release of FYE 2016 results.

....
....

Well I think it is not so bad for FCMB faithfuls, There two major angles for looking at this bank.
(1) FX (see below)
(2) Loan loss provisions (I have no idea)

(1) FX

From the angle of FX. I think FX (devaluation...) is going to be the biggest story by the end of this year just like last year.

FCMB got a lot from FX in 2016--> N29.3bn. See page 149 of annual report.

That actually amounts to a massive N1.5 per share in FX gains. P/(FX gain per share)= 0.64. This is very significant.

The total result didn't look so fantastic because of significant loan loss provisions.

If they can repeat such a feat in 2017 FYE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS, the stock could have something going for it.


(2) Loan loss provisions

The one thing that I do not understand is how their NPLs & loan loss provisions will evolve. This may be where all the fraud goes on.


If I get a handle on that, then I can decide if to enter this stock. Anybody with such an info should please help.

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You were all warned about toying with some banks but some people all called it false alarm now see what your stubbornness has wrought.

Warnings were sounded about market manipulation: Sell on suckers, Release bad quaterly/full year result,suckers rush for the exit, price falls, buy from suckers, release good quarterly/full year results, suckers rush in, price increases, sell on suckers and then repeat the cycle again.

FCMB is a classic case where this is happening right now. Poor suckers are rushing for the exit. Only for the price to increase later in the cycle and some will be wondering if they are being followed from the village.

Some people boast as if they are insiders but they have been had severally by the real insiders.

Now that the bubbles have burst, let me see where the JIJOists will focus next. I'll like to be your brokers.

.

locodemy:
Hope you have mandated everything about your shares to cardinal registrar.I got one invitation from fcmb group and the other thru the registrar.If you are really heavy @ fcmb,you should have hooked yourself to the company before now.

Today is our AGM.I will be temporary unavailable at this forum today.Will be there to see things with my eyes.

Abeg represent us well.

Most importantly, try to have an aside with someone from their investor relations and get the person's contact.

One key issue is how they book their forex income and gains. Most of it were booked in Q3/Q4 in 2016 leading to a leap in profitability. These went on to reflect in FY2016. Such money is still being made but not yet booked in Q1 2017. Please find out how and when they booked it in 2016 and how and when they'll book it in 2017.

Am not in this bus though. If I were in it, Thats what I would be most concerned about.

kentoto:
Will removing your bids stop from from leaving? who will hurt more ? you or them,

PFI are always on the move, capitalist to the bone, our frail economy needs them

k

If you withdraw ur bids or bid at lower prices, they will forced to leave at lower prices and we'll mop up. Trust me, they'll all come back in abt a year's time.

Coolcash1:
Until the men in black returns don't expect a major bull ride on the stock because of result and market generally...They are the ones whose investment style is driven by result unlike our local traders/MM that enjoys manipulation, manipulation and manipulation...Imaging a loss company like Guiness being on bid whilst good companies like Total, Fidelity, Afripud have their prices flattened, struggling or decreasing.

Gbam! Until the foreign investors return, The market will trade sideways. The sad thing is that they are still exiting.....GTB is a recent evidence.


We are providing liquidity for them to exit. If we withdraw our bids, all banks will come down to their sweet spots, and......

locodemy:
people don wise up.I prefer to see fbn result to bidding the unknown.....
Transcorp and Daiamond remain my great teachers in this life.

I remember someone here asked people bidding up diamond if they knew what they were bidding into.

locodemy:
Bros,its strategy people are using to survive in our present time o.Invest in stocks when you see a catalyst of making money and flee immediately.Dont go to wait till you see the manifestation of the catalyst you saw earlier (buying).For me,i dont take chances in fcmb and i am always there.In conclusion,just close that your analysis book and draw water out first then check well before you draw again.

I like ur style

locodemy:
For those who want to play a calculated risk game in Diamond bank,begin now to watch the technicals.it is almost at another good entry price awaiting Q1 results.
This game will be sweet this time...........Damage control things ongoing.............thru Q1 result.

As far as I am concerned, There seems to be a big unexplained problem in Diamond about loan losses. (N59bn in 2016 and N55bn in 2015). Much more than Tier 1 banks with larger loan portfolios. If you back other years, the loan losses are also significant.

They are always hemorrhaging money. On top of that, they don't pay good dividends. Actis abandoned ship more than a year ago.

That means anything you see in Q1 might almost disappear into thin air by year end.