₦airaland Forum

Raider76:
I understand one of their venture capital investors is planning to sell off when they list on the NGX. Those VCs are good at knowing when to sell out. May be wise to look at them.

Venture Capitalists look for high risk and high reward investments. Not the FA's, PE, PEG etc numbers.
They'll need to recover their money with HUGE profits while looking for the next prospective goldmine venture that may not be listed on any exchange

Sunrisepebble:
Yes. How I wish I could share their business plan here. The reason why I am super bullish long run is because of that deal to acquire Shells assets. The amount of gas reserves is huge and gas is still majorly untapped in Nigeria. The Refinery will also start producing petrol hopefully in Q4 and LPG. They’re also about to complete acquisition for a new tank farm. Like I said, me I’ve made good money, enough where I can decide not to trade for years, I’ll be exiting shortly. But those that have a long term view it is a really great company

Their website is rich with info. For those already in the boat like you, good to take good profits while still holding massive quantities of shares
Their story is an excellent Nigerian Entrepreneurial journey.

megawealth01:
I understand your jokes but truth is this is public space and all opinions must be respected

I am eyeing more ELLAHLAKES
Their website entrepreneurial aspirational stories are so sweet.
Perhaps too many negative opinions cluttered the way to spotting this potential hidden Nigerian entrepreneurial gem.
The sale post stockbrokers visit was an opportunity to load big.

megawealth01:
I have SEPLAT and OANDO that I bought at giveaway prices long ago. The truth is the truth regardless

Entrepreneurship has its challenges. Nigeria needs more entrepreneurs. Wale is doing his bit excellently. He was wounded with ConocoPhillips in hindsight and he has turned around the company for shareholders (quoting his words at the last AGM)

Abeg take profit, sell the Oando and buy more Seplat or Aradel and not need to bother with Wale this and that, truth and untruth biko

megawealth01:
As I have always said and maintained WALE is the only ish of Oando. If he can genuinely repent or stay away and let a good team manage Oando, that COY will do wonders but I doubt if he will do any of the above.

Just look at the recent games he is playing. May miracles happen for Oando

Abeg go and buy Aradel and SEPLAT and leave Wale's company alone. Abeg leave Oando my +50 cents play alone and stop bad mouthing

Aradel and SEPLAT are there for you to pick biko.

Sunrisepebble:
I honestly cannot advise to buy now. If you have a long term view of the stock then sure go for it but if you’re looking to make quick money my opinion of the stock has moved to neutral/cautious

May be an excellent long term play indeed.

Sunrisepebble:
I tend to agree. I had plans of holding the stock till NGX but if I can get #1k (20k) per share then why am I still holding on to the stock when I have more than 4x? I feel a lot of people will have the same opinion if it reaches that #1,000. It is now overvalued

Thank you.

emmanuelewumi:
It is okay for a growth stock.

Which EPS are you using for Oando. PE.

Remember Geregu, Transcorp Hotel and others have PE of about 30

It’s a turnaround with no PE for now. Rather there are various valuation numbers on NSEMPA from N0 to $1

emmanuelewumi:
Forward PE is roughly 15.


Made PAT of N104 billion in H1, assuming it will make N208 billion for the full year

That will give about N47 EPS

A PE of 15 implies an investment yield of 6%
Many shareholders would rather take profit than buy more.

MH for overpriced Aradel

emmanuelewumi:
Let us come down to 2006 Oando public offer was almost N100, I bought Aradel in 2016 for roughly N200.

It was sold Over The Counter so the share price will be cheaper than the other one quoted on NGX .
Shareholders of the other company from 2004 till date will tell you they experienced wealth erosion in the last 20 years

If Oando returned minimum of 10% capital appreciation per annum from 2006 to 2016 the share price ought to be over N200 after 10 years and about N400 in 2024.

Unipetrol was more expensive than Nestle in 2003. I remember buying Nestle and African Petroleum now Ardova for N20 each

Aradel paid dividends consistenly in the past 20 years , compared to the other company that didn't pay for almost a decade

Mr Time and Chance play their cards too.

Oando must have over paid for ConocoPhillips in hind sight as it wrecked its cash flow.

Won’t be surprised if dividends is restored soon by Oando

Mpeace:
Minus fx gains, gtco still topped them all.
Wetin Access dey do sef. Only billion from core banking in six months.

Cc; Nairametrics.com

Further supports the need for Tony to work harder to get the market support a re-capitalization price closer to that of Zenith and GTCO

emmanuelewumi:
The key word is fair and God fearing leaders.


By the way Unipetrol now Oando was far bigger than NDEP now Aradel in 1990.

It started as a small consulting firm of geologists and geophysicists. By the way the founder has a PhD in Geology, in his early 80s and now retired .

The company did not miss dividend payments in the last 20 years

Pray he starts with paying naira dividends as promised sooner than many expect

megawealth01:
Don't worry just start with whatever you have and build your WEALTH slowly but steadily. Get a real life financial mentor possibly someone you can also get counsel from in person. You will soon be cruising in good monies

If this one on the airwaves that had no money to pay salaries at a time, this your $1 valuation may happen as Mr TIME pleases. I am moving from N170 & N400 PE analyst valuation to 50cents sef

Agbalowomeri:
Dem say Agbaje tif money

Maybe we go fit see am for N20 in November

Which kind bad wish be this

emmanuelewumi:
My account officer in a stockbroking firm was earning less than N2 million per annum in 2008, the guy called Hakeem built a portfolio of ocer N30 million, had the opportunity to buy a block of 4 flats at Agege for around N8 million from a desperate seller but he kept on buying more penny stocks, insurance stocks , private placements, High Yield Investment Schemes of Nospetco and Sefteg until he found himself at ground zero.

The stockbroking firm closed shop in 2014.

Hakeem is now a farmer, doing averagely well but still found it extremely difficult to forgive himself

I hope people don't read it as derogatory that Hakeem became a farmer. Today people are hungry because we have lot's of fertile lands that are not cultivated especially in Southern Nigeria (to feed millions of hungry people) despite high levels of employment, perhaps because people have been looking down on farming and farmers and some would rather harvest where they didn't sow instead of planting their own .

KarlTom:
TOE way

He never stop investors selling.
Perhaps when final come they’ll stop selling anyhow

Sunrisepebble:
What is driving Ellah? They invited a broker friend of mine over a few weeks ago and he told me nothing is really going on there besides piggery at the moment

And someone reported here a broker that also visited bought some at 2.9

Does nothing is really going on there means there are no lands with palm trees growing on them with fruits coming up for harvest soon?

unite4real:
In a sane clime, Zenith Bank stocks price is supposed to take a hit after having 4 days of downtime and trapped funds.

I guess a couple of other banks had (or have) their mobile apps down also. Looks like an attack on some mobile apps by internet agberos.

megawealth01:
He is condemning oando

A critical write up is not a 100% praise song

megawealth01:
Hope you understood what he wrote?

A valuation of N400/Share. And the basis for it. Not just a wet finger number .
I made my own valuation of N170 per share too on this thread based on some assumptions.
And some have a valuation of N0 per share based on net assets as deduced from last published annual reports.
And yours is $1

robobo:
"It has a Certified Professional Reserves Report (CPR) from D&M, the second largest in the world, which has also been auditing ENI/NAOC, Chevron, Shell and other oil Majors for decades.

With the CPR indicating Gross Recoverable 2p reserves on original 20 per cent Certificate of Proficiency (CoP) stake and new NAOC 20 per cent stake Net Present Value (NPV), (10 per cent is $2 billion respectively), total value of the company has now hit $4 billion, that is, before deduction of acquisition debt of the newly acquired company plus legacy debt.

When appropriate discounts are applied, including working capital, Actual Net Asset Value (NAV) of company, less all long term debt, equity value is about $3 billion."


so Oando don dey release result without releasing result hmmm na wa ooo

Net equity value of $3b (after deducting all debt/ liabilities) hmmmmm which equals N4.8 trillion

meaning at 12b outstanding shares equity value is N400/share

God is watching all of us on 5D


Is this signalling?

You must be a Petroleum Engineering analyst speaking. .

freeman67:
ELLAHLAKES MH seem to have finished selling to the villagers. Now they are looking for who to buy but....
Bus don spoil for road conduct lock door with passengers inside come run away.

No no no.
Conductor go look for more fuel (bullion van, 2024 Q3 etc) as the journey far
Even if the bus begin roll back no worries.

Ginalex:
Waiting for the day Tony will remember transcorp and power but for now, we go use UBA hold bele

Transcorp has already kicked off with interim dividend payment this year. Paid two dividends of 10kobo each this year.

Streetinvestor2:
Don't put your expectations too high for final dividend. I expect it not to be more than #2 which is still ok .This should place the price btw #35- #40. I feel they will come for recapitalisation after 2024 results

Just discussing what I think UBA management needs to do in view of their good numbers, current market price and forced CBN capital raise exercise.

Not a buy or sell recommendation. Just a stock discuss. Prices may go up or down.

Agbalowomeri:
Lol bid that will end next trading day

It may and it may not. I think UBA needs to take time to build their numbers (reputation ). Work very hard to get a CBN mandated capital raise price closer to what Zenith and GTCO just did. It made the first move towards this with a massive interim dividend. It still needs to work towards a final dividend of not less than N3 next year. These will show its results and numbers are real and not just audio.

Not a buy or sell recommendation. Just a discussion. Prices may go up or down.

BabsO2:
Though UBA is currently more underpriced than Zenith or GTCO, its CBN mandated capital raise need to be priced closer to Zenith for several reasons.

In 2007 the public offer prices for the banks were
UBA N35.00 (rights was N34)
Zenith N38.90 (rights was N36.90)
FB N33.00 (rights was N31)
ACCESS N14.90
Fidelity N8:00
FCMB N14:00

2023 FY and 2024Q1 Book Values per share
UBA N57.37 & N73.81
Zenith N73.95 & N90.61
FB N47.88 & N52.53
ACCESS N42.34 & N **(looks lower than many quote)
Fidelity N13.67 & N14.6
FCMB N19.4 & N 22.62

Looking at earnings per share UBA, Access, Zenith and GTCO are competing strongly with Zenith in the lead and UBA attempting to drag position with GTCO. But I guess investors will place premiums on consistent dividend payout and growth. Zenith and GTCO are leading here.

Quoting my last week Monday discuss and commenting further:

With the N2 dividend payout UBA is now working nicely to get the valuation it deserves, a CBN mandated capital raise price that will be closer to Zenith and GTCO offer prices.

crownprince2017:
I hope this will not be one time off things.
I also hope tony will not collect the change on year end dividend.

Just thinking out loud.

That jump is massive. Can they sustain a total dividend not less than N5 year in the years ahead after a capital raise. Management (Tony) needs to out clearly with a message like this.

Mpeace:
We watch how the market reacts. The result is not as good as last year. Lower PAT and lower eps compared to last year.
This is a "rights issue" influenced interim dividend.

I will still take GTCO and Zenith over UBA.

Have you crunched the numbers side by side. UBA is relatively undervalued compared to Zenith and GTCO (& many other Tier 1 & 2 banks) if you crunch the numbers based on last week closing prices.

sky2891:
Both need that controlling power in the bank. They know the huge benefit that will give them especially in running their businesses (e.g Geregu and Honeywell respectively). I guess none of them will be willing to hands off just like that.

FBNH: See how they are holding back dividend payment to shareholders. Agree they are both in it for their insider benefits and not shareholder benefits. It's clear Otudeko was not there for Shareholders in the past.

.
.

Agbalowomeri:
Maybe that explains the packing of stockbrokers to the farm

They need to get the market not to under-price the worth of the business. Our market is generally relatively underpriced for various reasons you know.