Studymore123: Billions of USD come in from diaspora and you are talking of "tie down their funds", you should be talking about them pumping in more money. They don't need to "cash out" they have been paid oversees and it's me and you that need to cash out. Yes, I know CBN said it's immediate, but none is yet to start as of yesterday, I made calls to 3 IMTOs. Today I got info that one have started which I will try on Monday.
The foreign IMTOs having the liquidity does not mean they can afford to tie down their funds in a country they're not sure of cashing out. Most work with the banks on credit basis and settle after an agreed cycle.
Studymore123: What you described is correspondent banking and deferred net settlement systems with slight variations. That's how modern banking works, it simply shows that neither the CBN/Banks are using their funds but the remittances received and the cycle moves on.
Many of the IMTO's are not Nigeria companies and have the liquidity.
They deposit to the banks' foreign position (eg US bank the Nigeria banks corresponds with) and the banks in turn sell to CBN by depositing it with CBN's foreign account. So unless CBN sells its available stock to the bank for Naira value, the banks don't get much to play around with ...I might be wrong but its also expensive for the banks to bring in the physical dollar cash into the country for example.
Studymore123: I don't know who the IMTOs sell their FX to but you seem to answer the question yourself. If they sell to the banks how do they get it into the country to sell to the banks?
The banks don't use the forex by CBN for such settlements, there are reserves the IMTOs are supposed to have and it's simply a matter of outflow and inflow.
The truth is a different unit of the bank handles this and it's different from the regular banking unit that one can source for Fx. The CBN over the years have not helped matters with different conflicting policies and getting everyone confused.
Even with the present difficulty, I'm was still have access to Fx from the bank even without USD in my account.
They only said the regulation prohibits withdrawal of dollar inflows, which describes my case, and thus the only way i could access my money is to sell off to them at official rates.
I still have some cash trapped there so I'm glad the embargo is lifted, not that i need to withdraw since I'm not in the country and my dollar Mastercard is with me.
....they don't know that remittance is recycling the foreign reserve and not a way of increasing it
Fibonacci88: Oga shut up. How does remittances to individual account boost foreign reserve. Do u even know what makes up foreign reserve. Export from crude oil is what makes up majorly foreign reserve for Nigeria. Try schooling urself a bit instead of jumping from thread to thread praising an incompetent presidency.
But the parallel market is illegal, so why create and sustain a channel for it to thrive?
One would've expected CBN to make it mandatory that after withdrawing the FX from the bank, you must sell to the BDC who will help them track the customer through BVN to tie the withdrawal to the exchange but no .....what would one want to withdraw FX from dom account if not to sell to get more Naira and inadvertently improve supply to the black market?
Yes price may drop to kill them off but time would come when the economy itself would become dollarized ....why change to Naira and pay when you can as well pay in FX.
Excellent7: This policy should have been in place long before now!
The dollars will eventually end up in the parallel market thus improving the supply. I think it came quite late to be very effective in an easily visible manner. If not for Coronavirus travel restrictions on travel into Nigeria, it could have been more effective.
However, I foresee some reduction in the rate of Naira fall against the dollar at least in the next 8-12 weeks. My prediction for USD: NGN is 500 plus or minus 50 NGN to USD. I am of the opinion that it could have surpassed 600 NGN per USD in this timeframe without this policy.
Sometimes I wonder how our policy makers come to the decisions they announce. It seems to me that these guys are either ignorant or know the right thing to do but do not due to pecuniary or conflicting interests. Having said this, I will try to briefly highlight in a simple way the sources and evolution of this FOREX wahala specifically in the very recent past.
The Naira is and will continue to be under pressure as long as we continue to import much more goods and services than we export. However, this can be mitigated in the short term by policies that encourage citizens and corporates to lodge and/or invest foreign currencies in the country (non-oil-based FOREX inflows). A long-term strategy would be to increase local production of goods and services and aggressive export drive. Imagine the FOREX savings that will accrue if every litre of fuel consumed locally is produced locally! In spite of these fundamental problems, ill-thought policies and policy summersaults have continually exacerbated the situation.
Firstly, around 2015 (I stand to be corrected), under the guise of fighting corruption the government started making issues about foreign currencies in domiciliary accounts. The impression was that government might move to confiscate foreign currencies in these accounts and/or force them to be converted to Naira at fiat rates. At a point the banks even stopped receiving foreign currency deposits! Fortunately, the “madness” did not materialize but a lot of people had become cautious. Consequently, many Nigerians in Diaspora who often keep part of their income in the country as FOREX in domiciliary accounts became wary and so did other players.
Secondly, the ban on beneficiaries of FOREX transfers receiving their payments in foreign currency but only in Naira together with the wide disparity in the exchange rates used by the banks in paying beneficiaries and parallel market rates (often in the range of 20-25% difference) ensured that in real terms the sender loses value (in the range of 20-25%) by making a transfer home as opposed to exchanging the funds at the parallel market. This and the continuous slide in Naira ensured that mostly “hot money” came from diaspora. By “hot money” I mean money for immediate and dire needs for family and dependents at home.
The government is already banking on increased remittances from the diaspora during the festive period to help with the recession but I have had my doubts. The significant difference in rates is a dis-incentive. In my opinion the difference if any, between the bank rates and parallel market rates should not be more than 5%.
You see now? Exactly what I'm saying ....the banks will frustrate you withdrawing your FX. You will go to a bank branch in Lekki and they will direct you to their branch at Ikorodu just to cash $100. Some may tell you to come back in x number of days when they hope to get replenished by the IMTO. Only a child born yesterday would not understand these tactics and what to expect with the new regulation.
Neoteny: Wasn't selling or trading. Bought another car, the money was wired to me, and when we went to GTB to withdraw dollars and pay the dealer i was told since it was an inflow i couldn't withdraw, and had to sell it to the bank at official exchange rates, which we know they'll turn around and sell to their BDC cohorts at black market rates.
I didn't even know about that stupid policy.
So in order to pay for the car I'd to take a hit as I didn't have enough money in my other accounts.
Osheeeey! You just hit the nail ...well on target.
A time will also come when even the parallel market would start rejecting the dollar cos they lack enough naira to buy it or it becomes too cumbersome to handle the naira. Hope we won't end up like Liberia whose main currency has been overshadowed by the US dollar
teewaik: What some folks on this page failed to realize is that we are not a dollar nation, we dont print dollar..There is a limited stock of dollars, which CBN manages by allocating to the various sectors BDC & Banks on a weekly basis....The thing now is fine you will have dollar funds in your account or whatever IMTOs(Banks are the medium of withdrawal), and based on this new policy you are supposed to withdraw out cash...Then, what happens if the stock with banks cant meetup to the demand for dollar cash by individuals(There is no major change in forex reserve)...There dollar money get stucked and will be frustrated to collect in Naira or is it not when one is able to withdraw that you will then try to sell in the parallel market...Same emefiele was saying lastweek that Parallel market is an illegal market bla bla and people shouldn't patronise, yet a week after he is issuing policies which indirectly states that fine you can now withdraw and exchange your dollar at that same parallel market...I hope there isnt any sinister move behind this policy or just being desperate...
Exactly ...we all keep fingers crossed and watch what comes next
teewaik: You are on point with your analysis...I was raising this point in nos 5 with a finance friend of mine today...Though there may be changes in the short run, maybe dollar falling by #10 or at most back to #470 from #500...The major factor determining our forex reserve is proceeds from sales of oil...With no significant change in that part(which am not seeing till next year)...I dont really see any significant adjustment occuring in the forex market, most especially the parallel market...
Yes I get you but the IMTOs don't fly in the dollars or pounds to be credited into the beneficiary's account? The IMTOs will not do the cash out from your ba k accounts - the banks handles that.
How the banks are able to manage this depends on how much forex they can get from the CBN locally to knead off what they're able to transfer into the CBN's position from what they got from the IMTOs.
BTW the IMTOs currently sell their dollars to the banks and not the CBN
Studymore123: The policy by CBN has nothing to do with banks but IMTOs. Banks are not licensed to be IMTOs but can be agents of IMTOs. It's not the bank that's generating the Fx. They are only agents to disburse the funds. Before everyone can collect USD from western union, the policy is only saying if someone sends you money via western union or other various channels, you can collect the cash in USD or have it sent to you dom account. I only hope the IMTOs implement it soon
While the move seem the sensible thing to do, here are my takes
1. Do the banks have enough FX cash to handle payouts in the same FX? People would experience delays in cashing out due to scarcity and or the banks waiting for CBN to sell to them or the IMTOs repatriating the FX back
2. Aren't the banks FX position funded by the CBN? If you allow FX cash withdrawals through the banks, you are depleting the FX reserve to fulfill the payouts which is more or less recycling your foreign reserve at a cost
3. While it seem laudable, the best benefit would've been achieved if the IMTOs are allowed to connect directly with the BDCs and also smaller agents, that way it would help attract hoarders into releasing their stash instead of hoarding.
4. Hoping this won't dollarize the economy because everyone who withdraws from their account are bound to look for mallam instead of selling to BDCs or Banks ....why the need to withdraw sef if you're not traveling?
5. I'm also hoping its not a trap by CBN to lure the funds in and trap them by telling the banks to frustrate withdrawals. When the customers can't get the cash, they'll be forced to accept cash equivalent in Naira. Government can at the end of the day force a conversion of all fx in domiciliary accounts.
Awon werey ....will they hear word? Cut down the cost of governance and other frivolous spending buh no ....they are there allocating money to N-Power, conditional cash transfer etc that have less impact to multitude out there.
This one say $5bn is too low ....shei e well so? Where FG wanget extra add?
[quote author=IamHeWrites post=96616884]Former vice-presidential candidate Peter Obi has given out what can be described as a pathway to economic recovery, Igbere TV reports.
Mr Obi, who spoke on Arise TV on Monday, agreed that the recent recession which affected about 40 countries around the world was as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
He however warned that the recession would bite harder on Nigeria because the country already had ‘underlying economic conditions’ ranging from extreme poverty to high unemployment rate, high number of out-of-school children, highest infant mortality rate and soaring incidences drug abuse, among others.
Obi explained that unlike the previous recession where Nigeria recklessly borrowed its way out, this present recession demands fiscal discipline for the country to scale through.
Igbere TV reports that he argued that the COVID-19 fiscal stimulus of about $5 billion provided by the Federal Government to recover the economy, was too low.
Comparing Nigeria with nations like India, Obi said they were spending around $300 billion to help them exit the recession, out of which $50 billion is for supporting small businesses. He further said that what was more worrisome, was the fact that even the little fiscal stimulus provided in Nigeria, was not getting to the right people and are not well accounted for too.
I told my wife that I don't wish to have another baby, because 3 is okay by me, but she insisted that she wants another baby, she has been on my neck for the past few days because of this issue.
We have 3 (three) beautiful babies already - 2 boys and a girl, which is ok for me. I ain't financially strong, and I don't want to bring any child into this world to suffer.
married and matured folks please help me out. Thanks
StagethemTVee: A visibly upset mother removed both shoes to stone her son after she discovered he tricked her to believe their Television is touchscreen.
Drinokrane: Deputy chairman of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) Lagos chapter Ganiu Oyedepo popularly known as Koko Zaria has launched his hotel, Igbere TV reports.
Koko Zaria is deputy to the Lagos NURTW chairman Musiliu Akinsanya aka MC Oluomo.
Koko Zaria announced in an Instagram post during the week that his new establishment Zargarza Hotel would be opened on November 28.
People's choice are representative of what the electoral votes should be. However the more people vote in some areas may not affect the electoral votes due to the number of delegates that vote translates to.
For example you can get 100 million votes in a state with just 2 delegates... that does not mean you can win the election but in cases where by the candidate won in states with enough electoral votes to win the election, the delegates in those states cannot renegade on the electorate. If they do, they stand being prosecuted
Hillary despite winning the popular votes, it did not translate to enough electoral votes for her to win which isn't the case this time around. Biden won both - popular and electoral
Nuel4: wrong. People's choice is same as popular vote which is 100% worthless in US presidential election according to their own constitution. If people's choice mean anything, Al Gore, Hillary Clinton would have been president and there wouldn't have been a single argument regarding Biden's victory. USA is not a democracy, they are a constitutional Republic. If Pennsylvania senate deem the election fraudulent, the power to choose the elector will 100% fall on the state's legislative chamber which is controlled by Republicans and they will vote Trump.
For those without data to watch, let me break it down for you.
For Biden to emerge winner , he must win the electoral college votes.
The electoral college is determined by the respective state houses from which a list of electors are drawn by the house leadership.
In the 9 states in contention , 8 are controlled by Republicans .
The Democrat governor may attempt to block the house drawing a list of electors and so there will be counter suits flying around challenging the electors' list.
At this point, Michigan votes may be disallowed over strong evidence of voter fraud, thereby denying Biden the minimum 270 electoral college votes.
The US Constitution is very specific on this scenario as it states clearly that the US House of Representatives will then vote to decide the winner.
The Democrats have a majority of seats in Congress owing to wards as Democrat states like California and New York (due to their population) send more Representatives to Congress.
You may be thinking that this will see Nancy Pelosi lead the charge to confirm Biden as the winner but the Constitution specifies that all states have just one vote.
The current house is composed of 26 Republican states against that of Democrats with just 24.
So at the very end, Trump will win.
That's why the man is not bothered and is out everyday playing golf.
About time the military and police command restructure how their officers handle weapons. Imagine seeing policemen on the beat with AK47 rifle or those in escorts seating at the front seat with rifles which limits their response times. I believe it should like this
Police on the beat = Side arms (pistols etc) Back up anti-robbery squads = rifles (AK47 etc) Special tactical squads = specialize rifles (Tavor etc)
This would help improve their productivity and response time
We take things too seriously. This probably was a DNS resolution server issue tu e poor networks were having. If NCC wants to block websites, it would do it across all network and ISPs.
Some ISPs were able to render the presumed blocked web pages which means it wasn't a targeted ban. We should stop putting wrong ideas into the government's head.