₦airaland Forum

stcool:
Generally, I would expect price to settle above N7 before the listing and stay there after the listing.

On what basis did you arrive at that bro? Or is it just a feeling?

I am an interested party

stcool:
its rights issue should be listed by next month.....

Good. Next month is the acid test.

stcool:
Diamonds last forever...

I hope the diamond stays same when the tradeable quantity increases by one fold.

Agbalowomeri:
Boko haram ceasefire

Or the market could be reacting to the declaration of Nigeria as an ebola free nation

Wish I had a crystal ball.

Oga Aks its still early in the week to conclude oh. I don't know what has changed from last week to bring about the new found confidence on the NSE. The market is truly irrational.

Chibuking81:
Many factors are responsible for this crash, the major one been the fear of unknown toward the out come of 2015 election, foreign investors that are usually the highest patroniser of Nigeria s stock exchange market are selling their stake, this forces the local investors to join suit, secondly; drop in oil generated revenue also involve, my question is why America is not buying our oil again?, is Nigeria still in a good relationship with America?, why America is not selling their arms to Nigeria?. All these factors that contributes has their loot in politics.

Is the 2015 election the cause of panic sales across global markets?. Are there facts to show that foreign portfolio investors are selling their stake on the NSE?

passwelle:
FBNH own never finish oooo.

How low can it go? A man who is already down fears no fall..lol

Meanwhile the index has "outperformed" - 38882

Na turn by turn.

Yesterday it was FBNH,today its GTB.

Whose turn will it be tommorow?

Not just the NSE,global markets closed in very dark red.

Fear of stagnating economic growth and dwindling oil prices.

Aks:
FBNH is the worst HIT stock in banking sector, i just can't believe the price

It could have been worse.The intra day volatility is a clear indicator of some sort of panic selling; maybe because of the news of the syndicated loan loss in Sierra leone.

FranklinRich:
My experience in this market tells me I can never buy stocks at their lowest price, I also can never tell how low a stock will come to. My strategy is always to buy in tranches as the stocks I am interested in continues to decline. The last time I bought FBNH was during the sanusi saga and I averaged out at N12.30. If FBNH gets to N9 to N10,I will buy more and keep buying as long as i have funds and the price doesn't go northwards. same thing with afriprudential ,I am averaged out at N3.15. Will continue my buying in tranches as long as I have funds and the price doesn't go up.

This is quite true.No one can say with certainty what the lowest price would be,especially in a volatile market.

FranklinRich:
Very true. Requested for some FBNH and got my order filled at N11.50,I also got some afriprudential at N3.05. Let the Bears continue to reign supreme, we will accumulate in tranches.

#Hibernation mode reactivated

You got at good prices.

But it looks like we've not seen the last of the bears. This might just be the beginning,but certainly not the end.

Born2berich:
@Passwelle, what will you now say about Diamond bank?

What was their right offer price compared to today's market price.

Diamond seems to have loyal shareholders.

The volumes traded so far might not be enough to arrive at a conclusion.A panic stricken investor just offloaded 200,000 units.

The fear index on the NSE is currently at the highest level.

mercylicious:
ur money no dey finish?

u for see how my face change wen my small bros called me dt he will go for service by nov and he still has outstanding fees to pay.

Madam Mercy get plenty responsibilities oh.One can easily figure that you are the Ada of the house.

I hope you make out time to enjoy your money cos family wahala no dey quick finish.

I see the cup as half full - this presents an opportunity to take positions in fundamentally sound stocks.

The bears is not about fundamentals, its simply market sentiment.

39000 looks very achievable before friday.

passwelle:
No mix up, just good old selective reporting. What is reported sounds sensational. Indeed it did jump up to 81.43% in Aug. See link below:
http://www.nse.com.ng/market_data-site/other-market-information-site/FPI%20Report/Domestic%20and%20FPI%20Report%20August%202014.pdf

Thanks for the info bro.I am better informed.
If recent figures are anything to go by,we should expect more foreign participation in the coming months.

passwelle:
That report documented the figure for July. Foreign participation increased to >81% in August 2014 compared to 52% in Aug 2013. We do not yet have figures for Sept though.

There is a mix up somewhere.

Does it mean FPI jumped from 25.17 % in July,2014 to 81% in August, 2014?

Just culled below from marketwatch.ng

"However, the FPI started declining in April to 75.25, went down in May to 52.32 and further down to 25.17 per cent in July. Domestic investors can be categorised into either institutional or retail investors. Their transaction, on the other hand, rose to 74.83 per cent of total equity transaction in July, 2014 from 37.47 per cent in July, 2013"

Dexterax:
Mercy will probably say I've come again.

I'll calculate the autocorrelation coefficients for this stock to be sure it still has those anomaly properties I discovered last year. Then I'll post my chart for the stock here.

Hopeful and waiting.

FranklinRich:
Interesting times ahead as the index continues to decline, i expect to even see the index lower than 39,000 in the next couple of months. the declining oil prices will not even help matters as a depreciation/devaluation of the Naira seems imminent and this may accelerate the rate at which the foreign investors will be heading to the exit door at the NSE. For me and my household,i have decided to go underweight in the market however i will be looking to take opportunities as they present themselves.

There was a report posted by Abidemi early today on the declining foreign participation on the NSE.It looks like majority of the so called foreign investors have exited a long time ago.They usually leave a trace and the daily traded volumes does not indicate a major sell off.Taking into consideration their "perceived" risk of the upcoming elections and the outlook of the financial sector (which is their playground),any foreign investor selling at this period of bears is actually "selling into weakness".

Dexterax:
If the index wants to move to 35,000, no problem. My eyes are on the Costain play. Can't wait.

#OneYearAnniversary

Oga costain na dangerous play for newbies like us.

We would like to know how you intend playing if you don't mind.

At this rate,the index may hit 39000 before the end of the week..

joseph1013:

What's the implication of these announcements on shock prices?

Well,honestly can't say the exact implication on prices,the market could have factored all these into the current prices cos "the market has a mind of its own", CC: Skye ; O & O.

Thanks Aks and omoajo1.

Let me follow through the links provided.

Taking this information at face value implies H1 2015 really looks bleak for the banks.

Does anyone know the particular assets used by the CBN to determine the Tier 1 capital adequacy of Nigerian banks? Under Basel 1, it looks pretty simplistic but it seems Basel 2 and 3 gives the regulators in each country flexibility to make classification based on the peculiar economic climate.

My question comes against the backdrop of capital raising announcement by UBA.I didn't see it coming,like most people. So it would be nice if we can figure out other banks that would be coming to the market to raise funds. Some banks have raised Tier 2 capital via Eurobonds,etc. But its pretty obvious the CBN is more interested in Tier 1 capital,by restricting Tier 2 capital to 33% of Tier 1.If CBN has stripped some assets as part of Tier 1 capital calculation,it means undercapitalised banks will be torn between raising common equity or reducing the amount of risk weighted assets ( Loan book and Non-performing loans) to stay adequately capitalized - the former looks more feasible.

Aks:
Morgan, i traded online real time

Thanks bro.

Aks:
I've bought few units of FBNH @ N12.75 and Zenith @ N22.69. JIJO mode activateddddddddddddddddddddddddd

Which stockbroking firm did you use for this trade?

dsonofmaan: On a scale of 10, I'll give meritrade's customer care service a 9. They''re very reliable.

Thanks bro.

Mpeace: I don't really know much about Meritrade, but with Morgan you must be ready to call and call and call and sent emails, text messages etc from time to time. Inshort I know what I went through to open my acct with them, and at the end of the day, I had to open another acct with a smaller broking firm for peace of mind. Before Morgancapital and Faithfuls decend on me, note that I am not a competitor, am just one of those that feel things can be done without having to do followups and complaints. I think Morgan is either a little bit overhyped or cannot cope with the volume of new accts.

Thanks for the info Mpeace.

Toluway: Meritrade continues to up its game. Within 2hrs, i sold Interbrew and use the money to buy Afripud, even at a price less than the closing price. Note that you can now watch live trading activities on their platform, under 'Live Trading Overview'. Kudos Meri.

How long have you used Meritrade?

How would you rate their customer care?

I am shopping for a broker with real-time trading facility. Its between Morgan and Meritrade ,undecided.

House,when is the next earnings announcement for AFRIPUD?

Bloomberg says 04/30/2015. Does it mean they will release their H2 2014 and FY 2014 results on this date?

immanuello: @charlesnerd
Please be careful on that sky on your projections,don't be surprised when a marginal loss will be declared for d year end result Bros all these banks are exposed seriously as a result of cbn difficulty terrain, so expect some bad loans and this will affect all those ur projection and they may not be feasible. I think d best that bank can pay won't be more than 20kobo. Just my own blunt view.

All the talks on here about Skye is pure speculation and assumptions.

Nobody can say with some level of mathematical certainty what the H2 results would look like,I was only extrapolating based on available figures.

But if I were to invest in Skye,I would adopt a measured approach like you predicted and go long ,irrespective of the dividend yield.

But since we don't have concrete insider information , only time can tell who made the better guess.