₦airaland Forum

Tmoni:
please, what is happening to dangote sugar,

price just seems to be going southwards and i just bought some units at N39,

well, we would still wait it out

THe whole market is slow. Nothing to worry about. The pros told us September would be slow. If you really like DSR, buy some more.

New gist from the new-look Business day website suggests FBN is going to absorb N250B from the PO/rights. Should translate to ~7.7B total shares. Also claims Union wants to raise N180B!

http://businessdayonline.com/National/118.html

frankiriri:
What effect will the new policy of SEC?CBN on share verification have on the prospects for capital appreciation.
In my own view it is definitely goimg to reduce the tendecy for stocks to appreciate because with speedy allotment of shares to investors demand will match supply and therefore reduce the tendency for people to manipulate stock prices. Going forward only stocks with sound fundamentals should merit attention.

Shame the policy won't take effect until Dec 2008. By then, the Banks' appetite for POs would have been satiated.

shigidi:
easimoni, arent u meant to be on holiday

This is more fun than babysitting 2 nieces and a nephew.

yodiyokun:
easimoni,

I was looking at your insurance spreadsheet again, I am trying to understand the how to compare the current PE and projected PE.

Some of the companies has reduced projected PE while some have increased projected PE, what does this mean ? is that the stock becomes cheaper at a future date or more expensive at the future date.

I have done the ratios for a few companies, but I can't seem to intepret the ratios to determine a good buy or the best price to take a position - kindy provide more insight.

The current PEs in that sheet are trailing PEs (calc. by FSDH) based on NSE shares. My projected PEs includes my estimate of shares that are yet to be listed thus they may be higher than current PEs even as PAT grows! If you include the new shares and the forward PE is less than 20, I'd call it a buy unless there's some ambiguity about the recapitalization exercise.

Don't split. Go with Crusader.

@ V.C.2007,
email me at easimoni2004@yahoo.com

If you have someone in the US, I can mail it to them on your behalf. It's on Amazon for $14

UDK:
Guys, you have all been doing a great job! Cant quantify how much positive influence your different analysis have influenced my investment decisions, please keep it up. First am I right in assuming that trading on access bank will resume say 12th sept, i.e. two wks after closure the PO. Secondly in my portfolio I have 50K units of Access I bought in March @11.05 naira and during d PO I did not have spare cash and had to borrow to buy 70K units with d mind of selling my old stock to pay my loan within two months so my question is what will be a good price to sell when trading resumes? (I am looking at 25naira). Lastly I have 50040 units of Dangote sugar of which my broker (Leads Capital)has dropped my certificate with d registrar for verification since Aug 8th and yet d verification is still pending. Does it take this long to verify certificates? Thanks once more!

You'll have to watch trading carefully to know when the buying momentum ends. I expect it'll get to 25 but it could easily do 30 based on the amount of time it's been on net bid in the secondary market. Once it does not gain 5% on a trading day, you know the momentum is over.

The second richest man is Warren Buffett and he invests in stocks and businesses for a living. Your age is not enough of a reason to hold you down. I started at 27 and I wish someone had compelled me to start much sooner.

The mathematical expressions you need to learn to keep up include EPS and PE. Make Investopedia your homepage and read the articles on stocks thoroughly, especially the one on fundamental analysis

Investing for Dummies by Eric Tyson is also a good book to invest in.

virusabbey:
Please can someone list the good stocks in the market for me?

Nig-German Chemicals, Crusader, M Benefits

Femtex:
@ Easimoni

Do you still think Lasaco is a good buy @ 3.20.

At that price, my forward PE is 21. I like forward PEs 15-, but for such high growth, I could make an exception. Lasaco is quite strong but Crusader seems a little stronger.

Dis Guy:
they should make this illegal as well!

True That!

enurayce:
@Temmie 10 and easimoni,

Whats your top 5 insurance stocks and what do u think of Accenis(Accen insurance)

In no particular order; Mutual Benefits, Crusader, Standard Alliance, Wapic and Niger.

I have no info on Acen. It seems to have been on suspension for a long time.

KnowAll:
IF you buy a share in the secondary mkt assuming this week, can you possible sell it say next week without any bottleneck beuacracy. Secondly how much would be the total deductions. (Tax,commisions e.t.c.)

If all goes well, you can sell 4 business days after you buy. Recently, I made a big error (didn't do my homework) and sold a week after buying so I know it's possible.

Most brokers charge commissions based on the size of your transaction. The lower the value of the transaction, the more they charge. I typically pay ~2.4% (incl SEC, NSE fees) to buy and ~ 2.6% to sell. But talk to your broker for the exact figures.

deezzle:
Please, i have 70k too but i have been buying all my stocks at IPO. CAn i take this to a stockbroker?

If you've acquired shares through IPO's, you should take your shares to a broker and get your certificates verified. Add your 70k and you should be good to go. Good stocks include Crusader Insurance and Nig-German Chemicals.

whitelexi:
@Easimoni:

So Aiico has declared dividend? You're supposed to be the deejay of the insurance sector so please don't be stingy ohhh

Give us the gist

AIICO did a 1-for-6 with no dividends after the last year-end results. Temmie answered you well. Insurance companies should not be paying dividends since the PAT growth rate is v high. They should be re-investing that money in their money-spinning business.

jehosaphat:
@ Temmie 10.
Bros answer me na?? how does one identify companies that will focus more on returning value to investors by way of dividend than by increasing share price without any side dividends. I know share price increase is good but one or two cash return from time to time no bad at all.

Where BIGBOYLARY dey na? Abi u don sell your "crystal ball" take buy Dangote?? . Abeg which juicy stocks dey on the horizon

Where easimoni? You don make the money finish

Nestle pays good dividends and won't split the stock often. The downstream oil companies also pay great dividends relative to price. FSDH securities' daily report includes a % dividend yield. You should sign up.

Easimoni is on a 2-week vacation and will check in from time to time. You are in good hands though!

@ Tmoni,
are you trying to play the "jack your prices before the PO" game with Zenith and diamond? No try am o! Stay away from Dang Flour as well. If you have money (and not a loan) go for NGC, Crusader and Flour Mills. This union pp looks like a good idea too but as Wendy pointed out, the profit forecast is very aggressive.

enurayce:
@ Temmie

What is is procedure of changing stockbroking firm?

I'm chancing Temmie! Go to your NEW brokers and ask for an account transfer form. Take it to your current broker and ask (nicely) for them to sign, agreeing to handover "custody" of your CSCS account to the new broker. Once you get that, it's smooth sailing.

If they give you a hard time and you don't like stress (like me), gradually sell off all your stock with your current brokers (over a long period o!) and gradually buy all your new orders through the new guys. Once your account hits zero, FREEDOM! This is the last resort.

From FSDH Daily Report

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) today listed 4,989,853,959 Ordinary Shares of and 18,000,000 Irredeemable Non-Cumulative Preference Shares in the name of Intercontinental Bank Plc.

If they kept only 5B shares from the PO (total now 15.7B), the forward PE is only 18. Hmmmmmmmmmm. Abeg wetin be "Irredeemable Non-Cumulative Preference Shares"? Grammar too much.

yodiyokun:
@easimoni,

My brother, I know you are with Lead capital and i know you do not like their services but it seems I am headed that way because of so many factors.

Please abeg biko, what is their commission like? and who is your account officer? can you view your portfolio online etc.

Contact my account officer  fola.ologun@LEADCAPITALNG.com
I pay ~ 2.3% to buy and ~2.5% to sell. I can view my account online but it seem I can only give instructions via email. I get a sales/purchase notice within a day of execution and they even remembered my birthday! 

Downside is a severe lack of analysis (hence I keep my own mega spreadsheet) or qulaity advice. If you can pick your own stocks (or trust our advice), go ahead. Integrity, honesty or availability has not been an issue since I signed up in Dec 04.

Femtex:
Hello everybody,

This goes out to all the gurus and everybody that makes this business forum so lively all the time. Thanks for all your hard work and contribution, may the good lord continue to reward you guys abundantly. I'm just curious, with the First bank just concluded PO; there is this rumor that they are not going to absorb all oversubscription. When do we get to find out how much oversubscription is been absorb? How long is it going to take for them to return our funds back to us? Please help everybody.

FBN promised to absorb a maximum of N125B. If they choose to absorb more than that, they'll have to apply for additional allotment. Expect that decision/approval to take months not weeks. After all, Intercontinental was oversubscribed last year and we still don't know how much they'll keep/return. It'll be crazy for FBN to absorb all N500B (~16B shares!). About getting your money back, this site is full of stories about people waiting more than a year to get the funds back. Then again some companies, esp banks, have been able to return excess funds in a few months. Again months and not weeks. If anyone has anything more specific, pls chime in.

akininNC:
I am new to the forum. Does anyone have any feelings about the outlook on Afribank? I have quite a few of the shares. Any ideas on whether to hold onto uacn and uac propertiess, they both seem stagnant.
Thanks

Welcome to the forum. On Afribank, at a minimum, wait until the suspension is lifted after the PO is complete. There's almost always a bull run after the suspension is lifted plus the recent results have been impressive.

UACN properties' recent results have been mixed. Turnover is dropping but profit is climbing. It may be time to exit and get into higher potential stocks.

UACN seems okay!

jehosaphat:
@ Temmie 10
I read somewhere that Zenith was planning a PO. Is that true? Have u heard anything from the grapevine?
For all this help when u dey help us, God go butter your bread, add Jam sef! If you like mayonnaise e go add am put!

I read that Zenith has registered an additional 5B shares. It seems the plan is to raise N250B by selling 5B shares at N50 ea. Watch for Zenith's price to climb towards N60 so they can sell to us at a "discount". It'll probably happen around year-end.

Enolase,
I was just teasing Temmie about controlling the market, but the rally in the insurance sector is interesting. My M Benefits is back in the black (after buying and selling fees) after just 2 weeks of ownership. Sweet!

Too many issues with POs in naija. Just say no to them. Private placements, maybe. POs no way!

On another topic, a week ago, Temmie10 proposed that Standard Alliance was a stock to buy. Since then, the stock has been in great demand, so much so that it was on net bid today.

Na wah o Temmie, I din't know you could move the market with just a comment!

shigidi:
@temmie10, ure right, there seems to be an unexplained boom nin the insurance sector because there are no fundamentals to support this.
personally, i wanted to wait till christmas before taking position in mbenefits and putting more in crusader,
do u think thats a good time to wait because im not sure this bull run is going to last

I think the enthusiasm about the entire Insurance sector is unfounded but a few companies have really solid fundamentals. After seeing the 6 month M Benefit result, my fave is now Crusader with a forward PE of 14. Crusader should release a 9-month result. Are you sure you want to wait? If it's good, the price 'll go up. If they get the money CBN is hanging on to  

@ Temmie, Shig et al,

Actually, Dang Sugar Trailing EPS is only 42K and at the offer price, that's a trailing PE of 35.7 In today's market, this stock is worth N10 at best. 55k EPS is for FY 2007. Aliko is squeezing us this time! No wonder the NSE didn't want the offer at N15.

Buy this company only if you are willing to hold till 2009 at the earliest. That's when the EPS (FY 2008) will have adjusted to N1.50 and the investment will start to make sense.

Don't buy on sentiment o! And don't borrow money.

My bad! Sounds like a good business.

enurayce:
@ Easimoni<Temmie 10 and others

Whats your take on this:Union Diagnostic private placement

Do you mean Design Union? If so, a link to the prospectus was posted on a thread a week or 2 ago. The earnings forecast looks really good (then again, don't they all?) 11k EPS after FY 2008. BUT, it won't be listed on the NSE till 2010 or so.

alliednetw:
hA hA hA Transcorp is on a downward spirallllllllll!
When will this end?

Last time they lifted the suspension, it dropped 5% a day to 7.40 until they "re-suspended " to 9.71. My bet is on N5 this time.

Temmie10:
between 24 months ago and now, almost every stock on that exchange looks like a champion, 98% of all insurance companies have outperformed wapco easily in that period, almost all banks too have outperformed wapco in that period

Wapco is still cheap, just not short term,

When WAPCO was coming out of debt last year, it was THE champion. I bought at N18, sold at N70. Bought back in at N65 (in April) and I've been sulking since. It's a solid company but seems to be facing pedestrian profit growth due to increased competition and power concerns (the MD was in the news saying NEPA cost them ~N1B in profits over the 1st 6 months).

It has good value and shouldn't fall far but I think it's days of being a champion are behind it, even if they solve the power problems.