₦airaland Forum

zomike:
abeg i just go buy like 500k units of ist inland bank at a discount rate #12 ,i hope the thing no go crash after it is listed.

The deep pockets are starting to "show colour". _{ka jo ma rocking}

Woke up to 5 pages! Just caught up. My observations of the day:

[list]
[li]Zenith tested the N50 barrier and failed. FBN is struggling to keep it's nose above water.UBA will try (and fail) on Monday[/li]
[li]Diamond is going strong, closing at close to the day's high iwth 100M+ units. Dunno what this means in Japanese but my 'folio is smiliing  . Fo2, I go send u ur cut. Publish your bank account details here.   [/li]
[li]Longman is not slowing but RT Briscoe is coming back into buy range[/li]
[li]C&I is now officially ridiculous[/li]
[/list]

@ Samstone,
Wow! and thanks for the heads-up. Interesting days ahead.

shigidi:
this bull doesnt sem to be touching the banks. do u think this december year end might scare people a bit.

I think the bull is avoiding banks mainly because of the high nominal price (I know, I know Petroleum stocks are even higher) and the "sins" of too many POs last year. The Dec thing is artificial. As for me, I hope it continues; Will CO of some stocks in a few weeks and I hope UBA is still 50- when I'm ready.

FatherOF2:
@ Easimoni,

   On the large sale of Diamond volume yesterday,i gist with my broker well well this morning oh. E say no be major institution sell oh.
Na just one man institution contribute mostly to the selling. Dem say the guy need cash badly yesterday.

Really useful information, thanks. As you said, the door opened and closed v quickly.

FatherOF2:
No be winch oh. Na simple rule of GRADUAL CONSISTENT fall and strike.
I get some before but i con add join at N20.71 yesterday.
I still dey pray my Rosary now make Pumping and Easimoni no quick see the other 3 when person fit hammer.
I dey fear their eye for this place.
If them see am,na National Stadium everybody go hear.

I don dey learn my lesson. I buy THEN I tell. Nairalanders too much. Meself get 2 BUYS but my broker dey slack.

windywendy:
@easimoni: please what figures do you have as outstanding shares for FCMB and FBN?

Temmie answered u well on FBN. Re FCMB, he may have (inadvertently ; working the vocab   ) left out the FCMB GDR of 900M shares. I have FCMB as 14.9B (9.5+4.5+0.9) if the 4.5b PO allotment published here a few days ago is correct.

aktopgun:
@easi
i holla. wassup man. any gist?

Wendy gave me homework with her NIWICABLE/truebond/Odua gist. Dug up #s courtesy of google. Not looking bad at all with major upside.

Daddyzee:
Hi Guys,
This is actually my first post to this forum (though I have been secretely benefiting from all your posts.   You guys are great.
As to the post on Lasaco, Just watch this.
                            OPEN      HIGH      LOW         CLOSE          VOLUME
FSDH                   5.18          5.64       5.12        5.12            142,282,350
TRW                     5.38         5.64        5.12       5.24             151,400,519
LEAD CAPITAL      5.18         5.64        5.12       5.37             118,377,023
CPTL ASSETS        5.18         5.64        5.12       5.39             181,846,675            
Quite confusing huh. Guys what do you think?

SO u are one of the deep pockets eh?
The NSE website reads
NSE                 5.18         5.64        5.12       5.39             181,846,675        

The FSDH spreadsheet by email also has the correct NSE numbers. My advice; wait till ~ 6PM lagos time and get the data from Zenith Sec, NigerianSecurities, the FSDH spreadsheet or the NSE website. All those sources should jive by then and are authentic. Anything that comes out early is work-in-progress.  
 

shigidi:
this napoleon get money oooo
make una fly enter diamond, bad as i bad, 25% ROI, in 2 months.

I concur

yodiyokun:
So wetin be the koko? But if the big boys are selling - dosent this show a downtrend sign and not that an upward trend is imminent?

Institutions may be selling and a downward trend may be imminent but the FY is April and the 9 months is any day now. A CICO opportunity if I ever saw one. I don't believe the "big boys" are always right but they often have insider information and enough power to force self-fulfilling prophecies. That they are selling doesn't make the stock any less appealing to me. Are they not ignoring UBA right now?

That said, I have a conservative forward PE of 23 for Diamond; if it drops tomorrow, I'm buying more.

FatherOF2:
Men anybody when no buy Diamond today, today fit be one of the last chances oh.Killing wan come for Diamond.

He who has ears, let him hear! Caveat: since the start of 08, Diamond has averaged 11M units a day. In the last 2 days (both losses), volumes have been 81 and 137M. Is this not a clear sign of institutions selling?

SuperGuy:
Pumping,easimoni,akt and others.

Please what is your position on ikeja hotels considering their shares o/s
and the 3q profit which is quite good.From the stock price in the last few
days,i see the price picking up.I wont be surprised if the share is on upward
movement from tommorrow.
Kindly let me know your sincere position on it as I intend taking position
tomm;I just hope I will stil get it to buy at 7.30 max.
txs

Since u asked, I'll restate my opinion; Ikeja hotels lost money in the 4th Q of 2006. I don't know why; it may have been an accounting issue or a one-time charge. That's my own caveat. If they make money in the 4th Q, this is a great stock. My advice is to buy with one eye on the 4Q 06 result.

LondonCool:
@Aktopgun

A Black Marubozu I presume ! The Candlestick pattern looked too short or vague on todays charts so I couldnt really decipher the trend.

Why don't u and AKT just start speaking Japanese? It will make just as much sense as your current conversation! All these formations are zipping over my head. Pointers pls!

Safive:
@easimoni,
I thought the PO share for C&I has been listed bringing their share outstanding to 1.6B.

We know about it but I don't think the shares have been listed on the floor. Most brokers have not added it to their analyses.

afamako:
@Easimoni and Marco74

Marco is right about oil exploration as per info from my broker. See highllights of C&I below;

·  C & I Leasing is one of Nigeria’s largest leasing companies. Involved in
the business of extending finance and operating leases to various
customers. About 50% of the company’s current business is in oil and
gas operating leases.
·  Acquired LeaseAfric Ghana for N231.8m in 2006, which now contributes
N46.4m to group profits.
·  Currently involved in a joint venture which acquired a marginal oil
field in the Niger Delta region; it commenced operations in December
2007.·  Has set up a subsidiary, C & I Motors, for the sales and services of
Suzuki brand of vehicles.
·  Q3 results - Gross earnings are up 71% to N1.9bn and Profits After
Tax are up 248% to N298.7m from the previous 9 months to October
31, 2007.

I stand corrected, shows I'm not keeping up with events in my industry.   I'd like to know more about "operations". Does that mean production?

marco74:
easimoni how far with that your prediction 4 ci leasing?r u serious,because i need to run from am then?!i thought they were doing very well after their acquisition of a leasing company in ghana.also heard they're looking to go into oil exploration??can anyone confirm this.

I don't have any predictions for C&I o! I was just pointing out to allcorrect that the potential listing of the extra 1b shares could shake things up so he should sell if he is not in for the long-term. I don't know when the shares will be listed but they'll drive the FY Jan 2008 PE to 49! Not sure I can justify a PE of 49.

They are not going into oil exploration (na yam?), they are going into leasing services for the industry and yes they did acquire a Ghanian leasing company.

debenzd:
@AKTOPGUN, @EASIMONI

Wetin TA talk about oceanic? It is looking like the selling pressure don reduce going by today's minor loss.

Your thoughts?

I'll leave the candlesticks to AKT and pumping; Oceanic screamed buy on the 1st of Feb and I posted about it. It seems to have a support around 27 and is in a slight uptrend, RSI approaching 70. No real medium trend has emerged because of the new shares that were listed. My suggestion is to buy at 27- and CICO if the opportunity presents itself.

hispy99:
For IEI, I have 5.50B shares post reconstruction.

I stand corrected Proshare and futurview have confirmed it was 16.5 pre- and 5.5 post-recon. Allcorrect, my apologies and hispy, thanx

http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_news.php?id=3428

Allcorrect:
@ easimoni

Thanks a bunch bro. So 4B I want to assume is post reconstruction. Good to go then.

C&I, I go like wait till them declare 2008YE result then the big CICO.

Yes it's post-recon.

What if C&I lists the 1B shares from the 06 PO tomorrow? Results are due btwn April and June

flakyy:
Has anyone noticed that the prices on Nigerianstockexchange site also varies depending on the time you check. This explains why we may be getting different results from different sources.

Howver i just wait till much later to confirm prices when NSE must have fully done all the updates.

I think the prices still come in in batches after trading ends and so different brokers get it at different point in time. Some prices match one another and some don't validating this theory.

A lil known fact; the NSE website is "live and direct". Surely there must be some way for the brokers to know when the market is closed and the updates are final? No doubt that is the koko of the confusion. One would think the solution would be simple. But I guess not.

Allcorrect:
@all

Good and lovely pieces going down here, Was wondering if I could get the volume of outstanding shares for International Energy.

Still wondering whats up with Diamond but at least with C& I you know its just and then

Infact I know even know weda mak I sell the stock , haba since N2.50.

IEI has 4b shares. Cycle-out of C&I o! Fundamentals can't even support 8 bucks.

wanaj0:
For those doing CICO, they should be ready to commot from FBN tomorrow. Expect some bleeding tomorrow or next.

I concur!

FatherOF2:
@ Easimoni,

How much you take buy that your NASCON?.

E get sometin when i don newly observe this year for NSE. I want make this month end to confirm my suspicion.If e tru, na another strategy be that.

I bid at 16.50 on friday and my broker no see am buy. You know the rest

[quote author=ty_ademolu link=topic=31554.msg1947342#msg1947342 date=1202831091]Do you think, based on my investment objective (short term CICO) I can pull out of dunlop now and enter when it dips further?[/quote]I don't think that's a good idea. The chart shows (and akt confirmed), the uptrend is temp heading down; not a good time to sell. Wait till it hits a new low and bounces to a new high and then sell. Watch the RSI for when it hits 70 or 80 and then sell.

Ten-Ten, ten-ten.  My post total is nostalgic.

ty/yodi,

dunlop is on an uptrend (higher highs, higher lows), the support has crossed 4 (don't expect it to drop to that price again). 2007 was supposed to be the year they turned it around (based on the Dec 06 hybrid) and 2008 was billed to be a bumper year (PAT would triple from 07).

Much upside AND downside. May be worth is at N4 but not more.

RoughCut:
The banks  have managed to come up with about $350M out of a total requirement of about $5B per annum
I assume the govt is going to plug the gap. Our banks still have a long way to go!

Nope, that's not how to read it. NNPC is proposing an alternative/supplement to the JV cash call arrangement; the JVs need $7B per annum but the govt can only fund $5b per annum. NNPC wants a bank financing arrangement with our local banks to the tune of the $2b p.a. to make up the shortfall. The local banks have only done one such project b4 to the tune of $350M but that was during the 1st phase of consolidation. Now that they have a lot more capital, they can become bigger players and the JVs no longer need to approach the citigroups of the world to fund our oil and gas projects. Kudos to the govt and banks.

I can't wait to read the names of the banks involved. I hope to see UBA.

http://www.independentngonline.com/?c=117&a=10693

More on why you should have banks for the long-term. In addition to yodi's anecdote on her GTB shares.

Prince11:
AKT/ Pumping 777/ ALL

At what price will the DEAP resist this deep fall,

Can I also assume FCMB will release 9mth result before people that bought form IPO arrived, costly assumption I think

Deap did not fall, it was adjusted for a bonus.

U know what they say about assumptions?

Uh-Oh! Our thread has made the front page of Nairaland again! Expect a deluge of newcomers. I'm on vacation.

promotion:
Let one of the Technical Analysts/chart guru's paste UBA for disection, maybe we the candles or torchlights will expose such buyers. Maybe the we will be able to see how close the breakout is.

See chart  below. The only trend I see is the N50 support becoming  a N50 resistance.

shigidi:
@ easimoni, on the real what projections do you see for trans express this year, do you think its a long termer or strictly CICO

Trans-Expr has a forward (actually expected 2007 FY) PE of 14 (if they have not yet issued the rights, I don't think they have). The current forward PE for 2008 is prob. ~ 8 or 9. The rights will double that number   But we will see what the prospectus brings. Anyway, I think it's long-term but I'll get out if it smells N9+ within 2 months.

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1944700#msg1944700 date=1202763256]Cadbury is still not looking back, I missed out of that one. I was waiting to see the company bottom at N30, so I could board the flight, but it left while I was still hesitating.Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true.[/quote]Deep, very deep.  

ebony9ja:
10% is good for me. I am a volume player. still selling tomorrow.

I beg sell make u depress the market. Some of us need to join that train. Can't get on while it's moving.

pumice:
I had to step out quickly - my boss is breathing down my throat.

When I create a chart with nigeriansecurities I just right-click on the chart and save picture. This usually saves the chart as a bitmap. After I open the picture with with bitmap and add my lines I just save as a gif file. It normally saves in the right size so I don't need to recrop and it's not too heavy so I can easily attach them to this thread.

Hope this helps. Cheers.

Duh! Why didn't I think of this?  Much easier than what I proposed. Thanks pumice.

SavvyLanre:
@Easimoni - i no fit fight you, but, i for vex for you,  However, all good e be like say them help me get my peanut no. of units of Longman today.

No vex. Me sef no get reach wetin I for like buy but honest question derserves honest answer. Let's hope the price will smell N20 again.

madeonline:
Easimoni , good job. Thanks a millio times.

Please kindly send me the NNSE data set via ogunyemi@gmail.com for both volume and ther data. I have tried using megaupload but it shows "download limit exceeded'

Also, I have installed the free APTISTOCK software but i cannot load the data into it, whichof the icon on the tool bar is to be used for loading NNSE data.

Thank you for your anticpated email.

Cheers!

Sent.
I covered how to load the data in the 3rd message of this post. Try to follow it. If you still have issues, let me know.

yodiyokun:
Hmm, I like this your analogy ojere - so news behind the scenes or the general atomosphere.

I beg who has any info on airservice - at least this is a practical example of TA
but what if it breaks out and the tempo is not sustained? oh so many questions!

@aktopgun,
I dey try digest wetin you talk for here - I beg use layman language,

Na only RSI I understand out of all the thing you talk. yarn me tory?

yodiyokun:
@Easimoni,

happy 1000th post - may you continue to 2000!.

1000 posts?? Happy birthday to me, happy bday to me!! I'd like to thank my producers and my fellow actors

I'm taking a break to recharge for the next 1000.

Per Airservice, some peeps may have seen the FY results already. All speculation cos we don't know how string the breakout will be. My post with the chart shows C&I's breakout was "Hulk-Hogan" strong. This one remains to be seen.

PEr your statement in bold font, I thought u bough the John J Murphy book. If not (or if u can't find time to read) try the investopedia artice "exploring indicators and oscillators". It's concise.

aktopgun:
u lot have to tell me how to paste the pictorials on here so i can explain in pictures  

1. Go to NigerianSecurities and create the chart.
2. Make sure the chart window is active and hit "Alt+Print Screen"
3. Go to powerpoint and press "Paste"; this will copy the entire pic to powerpoint.
4. Crop the pic in powerpoint by slecting "View>Toolbars>Pictures", the crop tool is ~ the 7th icon and looks like 2 right-angles
5. Draw lines/arrows to illustrate, then group your artwork
6. Right click on the pic and select "Save picture as" and select "JPEG"

Come back here, post and attach pic. You may need to resize the pic size in some photo editing software so it's not jumbo-sized like mine but more gentlemanly like pumice's. Hope this was illustrative enuff.

rasputinn:
Yea,good point,but the scribe will have to be a superhuman alien with supersonic writing speed to be able to keep up with the speed of postings.On a lighter mood,if anybody try am sef pips to begin talk say "no mind am,na for nairaland him tiff the idea",them go com charge am for plagiarism,plus including say bros Seun fit sue the scribe for copy right infringement

Hmmmm, true talk. I no think reach that side.

Go UBA!

http://www.vanguardngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1827&Itemid=49

_{You must know by now that I'm heavily invested is UBA}  

yodiyokun:
@pumice and easimoni,

Thanks for making that clearer.

But wetin be wedges again ooo?

When the tops and bottoms start getting closer to each other; stock starts to trade in a narrower and narrower range; that is a wedge and it must be broken. In my post with the chart, the blue and red lines form a wedge; they will ultimately "touch". The "touch" never happens because the breakout must occur. The key is when will the b.out occur and in which direction will it go? In the NSE it's mostly results/rumours or bears/bulls that foment breakoutouts and the nature of the breakout depends on the cause.