₦airaland Forum

sageb:
Ijaw votes will divide since senator James manager is not contesting again.

No more bloc votes from the Ijaw dominated areas.

Delta south senatorial district election will be so intriguing.

The Ijaws not giving bloc votes is why APC still has chances in the forthcoming election. But I still think the Isokos aren't doing enough. Unless maybe the Ijaws come to their rescue, Diden may likely win. But so far, Joel-Onowakpo will massively win Urhobo dominated areas in the Delta South. I know that won't be enough to crown him, but also a great addition.

Overall, Diden has the bigger chances.

senatordave1:
I prefer igbuya or emerhor than this unknown dafinone...
Apc can win south if itsekiri vote massively for tinubu and ijaw votes are divided

Dafinone is not unknown bro. The man is doing lots of work and besides, power must spread among all sub-groups making the ethnic nation.

JasonScoolari:
Bro, Delta North is heavily influenced by that big lip Okowa, that is the district Sheriff is backing on. H.E Mr. Peter Obi will have good amount of votes there regardless, but Okowa's influence will do the magic for PDP.

Burutu, Bomadi, Patani will vote for LP as if their lives depends on it... They voted for PDP because of their son, DCN Kingsley Otuaro, not because they're loyal to the PDP.


I would prefer Ogboru or Omo-Agege to take over from Okowa, I have been following Omo-Agege when he was appointed as a Special Executive and Commissioner under the sweet and prosperous administration of Chief James Onanefe Ibori, and I love his charisma, but I don't see him winning his clan of Orogun for Tinubu.


Great Ovedje Ogboru, he needs to switch to the PDP if he wants to get close to the Dennis Osadebe house or the Government Annex at Warri.

I know you would love Agege. We all know he is one of the boys Ibori raised and made.

I don't see Ogboru winning. Aside abraka, the younger generation aren't ethiusiatic towards him.

The creeks have always voted PDP. I still won't agree that they would completely fall to LP. Clark might influence, what about Tompolo and co?

Whosever wins Delta South carries the day.

JasonScoolari:
Delta South and Central Senatorial District is already lockdown for Labor Party, but Delta North, (My Senatorial District) is still struggling where to go in the Presidential level because of the benefits they're getting from Okowa and Ned.

I'm projecting Obi to win Asaba and neighboring urban towns still. BAT/APC would get some votes from Agege strongholds. Uvwie/warri is completely in LP's hand.

Burutu, Bomadi etc have always voted PDP. If these LGAs vote PDP again, then I don't think LP would win with a good margin. These LGAs diluted Ogboru's win in 03/07.

JasonScoolari:
Oniovo, I am still a PDP member but I will never support our Presidential candidate. NEVER!!!

I nor dey do blind man politics. Once I love you, I support you to the very end.

I feel you bro. Party is not supreme to everyone.

What do you think is LP's chances in Delta South ?

JasonScoolari:
You wan play with Warri?

We dey deliver.

Warri To The Furcking World.

No be anti-party activities you they do so.

LP winning Warri is as sure as the sun rising. I can't really say who would win the state, but Warri is just too sure for Obi.

Thermodynamics:
Php is dead bro, this is not even a difficult decision, you should be thinking between Node.js and Java.

PHP isn't dead, while we can agree that you can do more (Functionalities) with Node JS, PHP is still very much useful.

JasonScoolari:
Really wish we could be together now make we use this Chicken press Four Cousins.

Real matters brotherly. But one day na one day. We go shayo together.

JasonScoolari, happy new year big chief. Flex tight!

Writer01:
Minor issues is what this people takes so serious

Not minor actually. The Ijaws and Ilajes are the only two oil producing bloc in the state and it is only normal for chairmanship to rotate between the two.

Aiel123:
I based my assertion on previous election results and patterns. Though I see the feverish support for Obi, I'm not too good in forecasting about an independent and third force candidate. You call it underrating.
I told the guy that made me post that to check later after the election. The obi wave is very much in Delta north axis...after the election I will draw up my conclusion.

You should base your perception base on present realities and circumstances. There is no way LP won't win plenty LGAs in the state. Even the Delta South that normally dilutes votes are moving in unpredictable directions. It would take miracle to cancel the votes Obi will be packing from Uvwie, Warri and Udu alone.

I'm not betting on Delta North. I don't know Obi's influence there aside the Urban Areas but you see Central? The man leads. The last time I witnessed similar enthusiasm towards a presidential candidate was during GEJ's first election bid.

Aiel123:
Delusion at the highest order.
LP can't win a single LGA in Delta...

Again, you are underrating Obi's influence in the state. I mean, the last time any political figure enjoyed such massive acceptance was during Ogboru's first run and considering the fact that he isn't even from the state, he should be respected.

He might not win the state, but he would snatch many LGAS especially in Delta Central. JasonScoolari is a core PDP man like you based in Warri and he can testify to what I'm telling you.

Aiel123:
I'm utterly surprised on presidential...
Sorry to bother you: what indices you factored into arriving at that.

There are more urban towns in Central and these urban towns have more voters that are tilting towards Obi. Believe me, the momentum he is gathering is massive. Even some party faithfuls are rooting for him.

The rural corners is where APC and PDP will secure their numbers, but will that be enough to cancel LP's win in Uvwie? Ughelli township? udu township? Oghara? Abraka? Sapele?

I've communicated with people and they are mostly pro-LP. If you are in Warri, you can carry out your own survey.

Aiel123:
I know tribal politics works but a robust party structure complements it.
You know if sdp had fielded Onowakpo,he would have lost even in Isoko.
That's my point.( APC has structure to some extent)
My own worry for Sherrif is internal sabotage... Else than that he's good to go.
How do you see the central voting in the guber polls?
I do hope I'm not stressing you.

For central, here is my prediction

Guber - Agege
presidential - Obi
Senate - Undecided

Aiel123:
Tribal politics doesn't work all the time.
In 2019, Udaughan lost even his LGA to an ijaw man.
Party structure is the basic faction in consideration here.
You see Joel winning Isoko will render Isoko PDP useless and may result in electoral loses for PDP HOR and HOA candidates.
5/5 is the mantra.
Central... How did you come to conclude opposition has it?
Uvwie and Udu , the two parties are almost on par( I know you are urhobo right? Pls confirm if the status quo has changed and I'm not updated on the recent happenings )
Ughelli North is DSP home.
PDP is strong in Ughelli South,Sapele,Okpe and Ethiope west.
Internal sabotage helped the DSP in the last election.
Ibori men worked for DSP because Amori lost the primaries to Oboro.
Agege contesting for governor is a step taken too far...He should have gone to senate.
Vote buying works...I agree with you though that it can't bring those huge sums.
On Isoko, I'll check later but there's was a massive increments in guber election compared to the presidential election last election season.

Tribal politics work almost all the time in Nigeria. In 2019 Uduaghan polled 125k votes while manager garnered 258k and only lost his Warri North due to the heavy Ijaw presence in the LGA, also remember that Itsekiri has no 100% LGA unlike Isokos that 100% dominate Isoko North and South.

Now is Agege's best shot. His chances are quite low but if the crisis continues in the PDP, he did come out with something.

Aiel123:
Why do you think the Isoko are the most populated ethnic group in the south?
It voting strength tends to disagree.
Onowakpo has a lot to do to win Isoko because PDP there is grounded and are not sleeping.
The Ijaws have always been one way traffic. Now they're aggrieved,if they should settle with their "lover" that ends it.
APC is hoping for either internal sabotage or unabated crises in PDP to win.Else than that, everyone knows what delta polls portrays.
Pastor Ukodkiho is PDP house of representatives candidate for Isoko and he has begun reconciling disenchanted groups emerging from the primary election.
Have you seen Amori's statement where he said Ibori is not against Sheriff?
I want to believe it's a political statement until I hears from the horse mouth.
Delta Political Vanguard led by Diden and Delta United Group ( Edevbie camp) are running parallel activities.
How do you see the central senatorial district election?
On Bvas being able to checkmate block votes from ijaw, there's a big possibility. Those riggers always worked with 80% turnout in one direction ( Chicken change votes for opposition).
Massive mobilization can still bring those humongous sums and vote buying.

We can't use electoral figure to weigh the population of any group. Even the census conducted way back in 2006 was highly manipulated not to talk of voting numbers. In every town in Delta aside Asaba and Agbor, the Isokos always come behind the Urhobos. Also take a look at voter registration in Delta state you would see that Isoko north and south registered one of the highest figures.

The crisis is what is giving the opposition party the edge. Ego and pride won't let so many key figures work together. You saw how the party inauguration was ignored by some important party members? This is political survival for some and they are ready to fight to death. You see what internal sabotage did to APC in Osu? Pretend to work for your party in the day while scheming witht the opposition in the night.

I know PDP holds down Isoko but Onowakpo will easily win (you can't take away tribal politics from Nigeria). He just needs big margins and the blessings of the ijaws to come out victorious. As for Amori, the election will be tough for him, as we speak Delta Central is almost in the hand of the opposition. Ethiope west and some few LGAs can't fully push him to the chambers. Agege needs the Senate seat as a fallback.

Vote buying alone can't give you those numbers. There is something we can't place our hands on.

Aiel123:
He is not a push over though but he's up against a united ruling party in his Isoko land.
He gave Hon Leo Ogor a run for his money in 2019(no bvas, impressive showing)
Bomadi, Burutu,Patani and the Warris will be his Achilles heel unless he finds a way to corner the Ijaws.

Ogor doesn't command mush influence in Isoko land. I've maintained that Isoko is the most populated ethnic group in the South. If they should throw their weight behind him by forgetting about party loyalty and taking the electoral process serious while also securing half of Ijaw votes, then it would be a win for Onowakpo. The Isokos are marginalized enough and I hope they show their strength this time around.

The Ijaws hold the keys in the forthcoming election and do you think the much talked about BVAS can do anything to stop their bloc votes?

The elections will be tough and interesting. A united PDP would still have crushed any opposition in the state but the worst that can happen to any party is internal betrayal. See PDP in 2015.

SadiqBabaSani, do you think Onowakpo stands a big chance?

garfield1:
Efewestern, what sayest thou?

I told you earlier that there are a lot of opposing candidates doing the 5/5 campaign in the state. This rally was held in Uvwie.

Aiel123:
The crack between Ibori and Okowa is not looking amendable.
If the SC declares Edevbie or Sheriff I don't think any group will agree to support the other.
To me , Edevbie should give it up because he can't defeat Agege starting from his LGA,

If I'm Obi, I would strike deals with important figures in each state. Meet with ibori and negotiate. Wether we like it or not, these political figures controls Massive numbers.

The demage has already been done. I don't see PDP winning the state with any wide margins. A win for APC.

garfield1:
Obviously.I see edevbie losing at the apex court

50/50

garfield1:
I dont underrate people except they are irrelevant.ughelli is the mainstream urhobo,okpe are half urhobos,they are peripheral.I prefer sapele or uvwie.efe dafinone is not a politician, no one knows him.keyamo is even better.chief amori night rubbish him.

erhiatake struggled to win primaries,okowa was against her.if she is not stopped,she will work against apc dominance of urhobo land in future.
Agege made a mistake by choosing his deputy from north instead of the ijaws.he could have ceded senate to them.I believe he was instrumental to tompolo contract.he hss Edwin Clark and Michael johnny backing,he needs tompolo and manager endorsement.
I didnt underrate oboro.I said since she isn't contesting for senate or reps,she is relaxed and will remain neutral.I know how strong she is in uvwie...
Theres something I learnt about agege.I heard he attracted federal projects like federal poly,oil and gas park,defence space agency,federal university of agric,law schools campus and he doesnt have executive powers.think of what he will do as governor.he has turned orogun to another oghara and abraka

Okpe aren't half Urhobo and Ughelli isn't Urhobo mainstream. Everyone has equal stake in the Urhobo project. I find this offensive bro.

Okpe are as much Urhobo as Ughelli. Do you know several core Okpe towns/villages speak central Urhobo dialect and are indifferenciable from other Urhobo towns? Places like Oha, Orerokpe and even Osubi (Hometown of Sheriff) speak the central Urhobo dialect. Brother, we are one indivisible family and we would remain like that.

Amori isn't a popular candidate in Urhobo land. Whilst Dafinone isn't also popular, he has the backings and support of various big names. He has a very big chance. This will be the first time an Okpe son will be appearing in a ballot.

I see Erhiatake coming for the seat of governorship in the nearest future. She already scaled through one of the toughest primary. I don't see any stopping stone for her.

I know the ijaws have big electoral value but they just had a taste of DG. Agege can't allow PDP get bloc votes in the North. It will be disastrous to him and what guarantee do you have those the ijaws will throw their weight behind him?

Ughelli people are firmly behind Agege. With APC still retaining federal power, he would influence more. This here is the reason many of his loyalists are hardcore BAT supporter.

tutudesz:
Ibori boys are PDP members at day and APC members at night

Lol. Someone said they are backing Agege as fallback option. Lol. Politics can be funny.

Aiel123:
Do you know Gen. Anuke from Ewu?
Is he strong by popularity?
Just heard he has defected to APC.

I don't seem to know him. There has been lots of decamping of recent. Just last month, an influencial PDP figure in Uvwie decamped to the APC.

Aiel123:
Your last point sums up delta politics...
There's always a massive turnout there (70% upwards. Warri SW onced had 88.67% turnout)
Those regions saved Udaughan from losing in 2011.
But Okowa inflated it so much for his reelection.
Burutu,Bomadi,Warri...are rig lord zones.

They don't give below 80%. Bomadi miraculously have more numbers than Uvwie, an urbanized LGA. Nigeria is an interesting country.

They have saved PDP for years. Ogboru would have whooped many asses. But presently, they are currently aggrieved and no one can tell their next political moves.

garfield1:
DSP is seriously working for tinubu too.you know his guber bid depends heavily on tinubu winning.osanebi,nwaoboshi the oracle of ibusor do not nerd to win delta north.they just need to reduce pdp winning margins,win one or two lgas especially with obi gaining ground in that side.
Joel is popular in isoko but he will love to the great sir hon ejele.all he needs is to divide isoko votes as hon Leo ogor is inactive.with the ijaws being aggrieved over losing pdp ticket,tinubu will get some votes there.agege can strike a juicy deal with them

DSP needs BAT to win. They both need each other, everyone knows this. There are a lot of things at stake.

BAT isn't likely to win a single LGA in north. Osanebi might deliver one and Nwaoboshi insignificantly eat into PDP numbers. APC strongest hold in the state in Delta Central, that is the only place they are sure of some winnings.

garfield1:
Oh,hon henry minabowanre baro.he was illegally removed by 7 out of 20 members.he is very popular in uvwie and with hon oboro being quiet,he might just win.I dont know how strong sheriff is in that constituency.I dont know how strong apc is in sapele,I know sheriff holds okpe...
Igbakpa is a goner.agoda won apc primaries again and the court affirmed him.with pdp now divided in ethiope,he should win this time.rev waive should also win in ughelli seat .but I dont know how strong dafinone is.I'll have preferred otega emerhor or agege returns to the senate and be SP .I just heard that some iboris men have started meeting agege.
The ijaw areas where pdp rigs is now uncertain with tompolo being given a big contract and manager,otuaro are aggrieved with orubebe now in apc and Edwin Clark now against okowa.

Baro is somewhat influencial. He is the one spearheading lots of Tinubu support group in the city. But you undermine people a lot Garfield. Oboro won't be a pushover, the lady gave Agege a run for his money. Lol. Lots of Baro's loyalists are aggrieved so they are ready to dig it out.

I'm pointing Erhiatake Ibori to win Ethiope. Sheriff is very strong in Okpe but I don't think he has any influence in Sapele. Waive would win, I'm not seeing any serious opposition.

@Bolded, you should understand that Ughelli isn't the only Urhobo speaking clan. Other clans should also taste political power. Giving the ticket to Dafinone is a strategic move for fairness and equity. The Okpe people of Urhobo shouldn't be left out in any political scheming. Dafinone's chances are really quite high. Agege will cover Ughelli/Ethiope East/part of Uvwie for him, He would need to only secure his Okpe clan to emerge winner.

Let's hope the BVAS limits massive rigging, because the numbers from the creeks are terrifying. Whosever they pledge their alliance to carries the day.

garfield1:
The large population of hausas in ughelli town and uvwie will vote kwankwaso.just as buhari won urhobo land,bat will win too.nwaoboshi,osanebi,Doris uboh,ojougboh etc will get him votes up north while Joel will get him votes in isoko.the itsekiri tilt towards apc and ayiri is a major part of his campaign.dont forget remi is itsekiri

The population of Hausa in Delta Central is very insignificant. Buhari got Delta Central votes because of the influence of DSP not because of the population of notherners in the state. Ughelli is overwhelming dominated by the Urhobos and only followed by the Isokos. No other ethnic groups has the numbers to influence any significant political Change.

What numbers can Nwaoboshi pull ? Osanebi is very influential and seems to be loved by his people. He will pull figures no doubt, but can he deliver his sub-ethnic bloc ? Only time will tell.

As for Joel, his people aren't doing enough to push him or his Party. I can't really tell his strength.

garfield1:
Who is baro? I feel Ben defected because of ibori's daughter.I believed chief halims agoda defeated him in 2019.I dont know who is aoc candidate this time

Baro was the former chairman of Uvwie local government area. He was sacked by Gov Okowa and defected immediately to APC. He is currently the APC flag bearer for Okpe/Sapele/Uvwie Federal Constituency, contesting against Hon Evelyn Oboro of the PDP. Baro is one of the most influential APC figure in Uvwie, please don't mention Festus. He commands lots of dedicated followers and loyalists.

I Know Ben defected because he lost out to Erhiatake, but realistically speaking, his chances are quite slim, unless something unusual happens. He can utilize the power of his current seat, but again, he is up against bigger names.

garfield1:
Kwankwaso will get half of ethiope votes,not good for tinubu and okowa

Kwankwanso won't win more than some wards in Ethiope. PDP has the constituent on lock unless the current supremacy battle extends.

BAT isn't on the equation in some zones in Delta state, you should know that by now.

He is up against bigger forces. I don't know how he intends scaling through. Same thing with Baro in Uvwie, only that Baro seems more rugged and has the backup of some titans.

2023 will be interesting.

Christistruth00:
Eze is King in Igbo

Eze Igbe not an Edo Name it is Egbe that is Edo

EzeIgbe is most likely Ezeigbo mis spelt

It is Igbos that have Eze, the Edo use Oba as in Obaseki the same way Yorubas use it in Obasanjo

Again, Eze doesn't exclusively belong to Igbo and it means a different thing entirely in some Edoid languages.

You are mixing things up. I'm not saying Eze means King in Edo, I'm saying while the name may look Igbo, it has a different meaning entirely in Edo. A lookup on the name shows only Edo related people bears such.