₦airaland Forum

@Beaf: My bad, you are correct. Neither group I mentioned is listed as a terrorist org.

[quote author=Jenifa_ link=topic=578229.msg7455185#msg7455185 date=1294085315]Even in yorubaland, hausas live there peacefully and adjusted. despite some terrible things yorubas did to them in the past like forcing them into settlements.[/quote]Justify this with some sort of evidence. From what I know, the Hausa in Yorubaland chose to live in their own settlements, nobody forced them to.

@Rousseau: To some extent you are correct. But I don't think the US even fears one ethnic group alone. If Yoruba act up, hire Hausa and Igbo to put them down. If Hausa act up, have the other two put them down (pretend GEJ wins and these Boko Haram types cause trouble. GEJ could then wipe them out w/o the US intervening to help the North.) And we saw what happened when the Igbos and the "strongest army in Black Africa" (pardon me if I misremember the quote from Ojukwu  ) tried to cause wahala.

The scenario that would truly threaten the interests of the US is if two or more of the big three agreed on something. Of course, this isn't likely to happen, since all three of us dislike each other (at least, imo).

@Beaf: Iirc, Boko Haram and MEND are both considered terrorist groups by the US. OPC got removed from the list recently, if I'm not mistaken.

Interesting.

lastpage:
The answer to the "big question" is very small indeed: MANUFACTURE!, MANUFACTURE!!, MANUFACTURE!!!


China manufactures about every and anything!

They did not get it right the first day but persistently stuck to that ideology: BE AN EMPLOYER, CREATE EMPLOYMENT!!

Dude, of course everyone wants manufacturing in Nigeria too. But you cannot manufacture (competitively) w/o roads and light. China invested in infrastructure first to support manufacturing. Nigeria has not. . .

oyb:
especially when all beaf has blatherd in the past bout chasing out western interests and bringing in the chinese?

Kicking out the West and inviting the Chinese is like hopping from the frying pan directly into the fire, lol.

To some extent, this is why I'm glad that Yorubaland doesn't need oil to survive, or have that much oil. We will hopefully never be viewed as food for predators like the US, EU and China (though secretly I hope in 50 or 100 years time that we too can become predators rather than prey.)

Otoh, most likely scenario for a ND Republic is for them to be a steak being fought over by several large dogs (the US, EU, and China.)

Doesn't appear as if it is possible to escape bondage if you have so much oil. Someone large and powerful will seek to steal it from you and/or enslave you.

Even if the ND successfully escapes the bondage of Nigeria, they will not be able to escape those aforementioned large dogs.

Imo, your best bet is to push hard for GEJ to win. And if GEJ fails to win, cry marginalization and extract something massive, like 50% oil derivations and a SNC that devolves power to the states (I actually support both of these measures myself and think they are good for the longterm stability of Nigeria.)

Destabilizing the Nigerian state means eventually you'll have to confront the US one way or another. And I don't know too many nations/peoples who have done this successfully.

So I googled, here is what I found:

http://allafrica.com/stories/200908140153.html
http://www.army.mil/-news/2008/05/07/9017-unified-quest-focuses-on-future-persistent-conflict/
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/05/war-game-minus/



Here is a quote from the second article

For each scenario, a blue team, red team and green team played out the conflict. The blue team represented the United States and its allies. The red team represented the enemy, whether it was a terrorist organization or a rival tribe vying to overthrow the government. The green team acted as the populace and represented their opinions and reactions to ongoing operations so they could be taken into account.

Beaf dude, are you 100% sure that if the US inteferes in Nigeria, it will be to help you and your boys? The language they are using, YOU are the red team, not me (by me, I mean the Yoruba, since that group [and our allies] are mostly what I'm interested in.) I don't have a terrorist organization blowing up stuff in the ND, Abuja, you do. I'm not the one kidnapping foreign oil workers, that is you. I'm not threatening to overthrow the government if the election goes poorly, that is you and your boys. . .

A quote from the first article:

Among scenarios examined during the game were the possibility of direct American military intervention involving some 20,000 U.S. troops in order to "secure the oil," and the question of how to handle possible splits between factions within the Nigerian government. The game ended without military intervention because one of the rival factions executed a successful coup and formed a new government that sought stability.

Is there any language here indicating that the US gives a damn about anything in the ND but the oil? They don't seem interest in you, your cause, your people, just securing the resources there. All they care about is "stability."

Stability doesn't equal equity or justice. Hell, stability might mean an even worse situation for the ND than before. Or are there some articles and analyses that I have missed? I've seen nothing so far that supports your position. Of course, if I've missed something, please point it out for me.

@Beaf: Hard for me to tell if your post is parody/sarcasm or not.

Just in case you were serious, that is not how the US operates.

In any such battle in Nigeria, the US will stand idly by the side until the winner is clear, then join that side (but not even with troops or military resources, just words.)

They will not get directly involved.

GEJ knows how to play politics. Write a concerned letter and have it "mysteriously" leak to the press

As if he doesn't have Ojukwu's phone # on his Blackberry or something, lol

Ah well, I cannot hate on GEJ for working for his own interests.

Link to the original: http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Analyses_12/The-Ivorian-Crisis-The-Opinion-of-a-Cameroonian-Presidential-Candidate_printer.shtml

Excellent article. Hard to avoid drawing parallels between the Ivory Coast situation and the upcoming Nigerian elections.

@violent: It is hard for me to imagine that the author is also biased in favor of Gbagbo. And as he points out, it is going to be very hard to find judges/lawyers who have absolutely no connection to anyone. Generally however, you assume that judges will do the right thing, and back up their pronouncements with a firm legal basis.


Hmm, I was very troubled by the folllowing:

The reaction of French President Nikolas Sarkozy was perfectly understandable and predictable because the role of France in the rebellion in Cote d’Ivoire has been established and documented. What has shocked Africans is the role and the reaction of President Barack Obama. The information that the US Ambassador in Cote d’Ivoire played a role, alongside his French counterpart, in stealthily conveying Mr. Youssouf Bakayoko to Golf Hotel on Thursday 1/12/2010 so that he can declare Alassane Dramane Ouattara the winner is the type of politics which we in Africa find difficult to identify with the Obama Administration. In the electoral process, such an act is worse than stuffing ballot boxes or carrying them in the boot of one’s car into the night. It has lowered the democratic credentials of the Obama Administration by at least by five notches and damaged the credibility of President Barack Obama in Africa in an irreparable manner.[/b]

and

That is the type of roughish game that France plays and they are well known for it. The reversal of the results of the Presidential elections in Gabon to declare Bongo’s son the winner has been revealed by French officials themselves. The reversal of the results of the Presidential elections in Cameroon in 1992 between Ni John Fru Ndi and Paul Biya is also well known. But the Obama Administration is unworthy of this type of role. If the final outcome of the current crisis is a regional war in West Africa which was threatened at the last ECOWAS Summit in Abuja, this will be Obama’s Third War since coming into office. The First Obama War is the war in Afghanistan and the Second Obama War is the Drone War in Pakistan.

and finally

From he who promises nothing, nothing is expected; but from he who promises much, much more is expected. President Barack Obama told us when he visited Ghana that Africa needs strong institutions, not strong men. The people of Cote d’Ivoire are trying to build strong institutions based on their constitution and when a President who has been sworn-in by the Constitutional Council is summoned to the White House like a small “niggerboy”, in order to be told to renounce the oath of office that he took at his swearing-in, it is not Laurent Gbagbo who is being humiliated; it is the Ivorian Constitution and its derivative institutions that are being humiliated. It is the Ivorian people who are being humiliated. It is all Africans that are feeling humiliated.

[quote="Pifa"]With regard to California’s experiment with tolled freeways (notice I said freeways, not expressways), the demise of privately-funded freeways started around 2000 when a clause in the contractual agreement between Caltrans (California Department of Transportation) and the owners of the tolled section of SR91 in Riverside county was leaked to the public. The clause gave the owners of the tolled section the power to block Caltrans from making major improvements to the non-tolled section of SR91 (SR means State Route), which happened to be one of the most congested routes in California. The investors feared that competition from an improved government-owned section of the freeway would drive traffic away from the tolled section and deprive them of revenue. It was a legally problematic agreement that not only violated the American spirit of promoting completion, it bordered on what lawyers call “collusion”, and could possibly run head on into US anti-trust laws. The tolled portion of SR91 has since been taken over by a public agency after barely seven years of existence.[/quote]Alright.

How does this relate to the Lekki toll road? Read the clause in the agreement posted by kalokalo: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-576642.96.html#msg7436825. It basically relives the investor of risk! All investments carry a certain amount of risk. When you remove that risk with guarantees of return regardless of how the investor executes, you create an environment for laxity.  I do not know Nigerian contract law. But in our contract law, this is known as a ”sweetheart deal” or a “one-sided contract” .  It is a legal concept recognized even in English Contract Law, which forms the basis of contract laws across the Commonwealth, of which Nigeria is a member. The "sweetheart deal" nature of the contract is one of the arguments objectors to the toll road are making.

I'm not sure I agree. First of all,  the terms are not "Lagos State must pay us $X over the next 30 years, regardless of how much less than that we take in from tolls." It is instead, "if Lagos State defaults on the terms of our agreement, then they must pay us $X."
If we agree on this, then it is not quite a riskless investment, is it? It is just to protect themselves and ensure a penalty of their partner (Lagos State) violates the agreement.
Or am I misunderstanding?

Now, let’s go back to the map https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-576642.96.html#msg7437041 you kindly posted, and my contention that the toll road solves no traffic problem. If the toll ran above ground but parallel to the existing road, it would create value for the road user or what is known in contract law as “consideration”. The value, in this case, would be the option to bypass congestion in that corridor and ride above ground in free-flowing traffic. Would you say the Lekki toll road creates such value?

In my opinion it does. Doesn't adding a 3rd lane have a similar effect? And surfacing and maintaining the road? Why must an above-ground toll be the only way to create value, when adding additional lanes does the same thing?

In every privately-financed toll road I know of, the construction was generally done as an adjunct to an existing government road. The Lagos state government got it backwards in their case: they are using taxpayers' money to construct an alternate route after giving taxpayers' road to a private enterprise to develop and toll for 30 years. Why not use the money they are spending on the alternate route to develop the Lekki road in the first place, and then toll it directly for the government? I can never be against allowing the investors to profit on their investment, but I get the impression that tolling the Lekki road was a back-room deal designed to steer business to the concessionaire.

So what if it turns out that the improvements they made will have the same overall effect in improving traffic as adding say an above-ground toll? Then will you still have this same impression?

I dunno, I'm dissatisfied with your argument to some extent, because it means that if a road has to be improved and expanded, and the state gov't doesn't have the funds to do it but they can find a private partner who is interested, then that private partner has very limited means to recover their investment. Fine, so maybe LCC should have built an above-ground toll. But what if that is an inferior overall solution to simply improving the existing road?

Sorta see what I'm saying?

PS: Sorry for taking so long to respond. . .

^--- Yeah, I've been in Houston for the past few days with the fam. Still jetlagged and on Nigeria time, lol

udezue:
Unfortunately for Itsekiri it will quite impossible geographically to join the Yoruba since their land is surrounded by Ijaw and Edo ppl. If Edo minus Igbanke goes with Yoruba then there is a chance if not you might have to migrate back to Ijebu or wherever u came from to achieve that bruh.

But then again Lesotho is in the middle of South Africa so who knows you can still be part of Yoruba nation away from Yoruba land that is if your battle thirsty Ijo neighbors don't chase you into the ocean. 

Wouldn't be too big a deal, Russia for example has some small province in Europe entirely surrounded by European countries, or something.

So if there is a referendum and the Itsekiri want to join, no biggie.

Never heard of this party before in my life before he joined it. . .

So are we in a democracy, or not?

These empty threats bore me. . .

Interesting new posts. I guess it makes for us to see the exact terms of this deal so we can compare and contrast to the alternatives. Hopefully the pending lawsuits make the details public.

oyb:
yeah yeah atiku is wanted in the us says team gej.

the fbi must be even moe useless than efcc then - why have they not issued a warrant for his arrest?

Still available!

alj harem1:
He said since commercial banks in the country were afraid of taking risks, the Federal Government would provide loans at low interest rate for the development of the Agric sector which contributes to our GDP, and for the revival of industries especially the ones in Kano and Kaduna.

Eh, if the FG is going to give low interest agricultural loans in this Nigeria, I'll open up a farm too! Farming is profitable, just not as profitable as other activities (like importing.) But if you give low-interest loans, you'll attract more interest in it.

Obiagu1:
Be wise or we'll live to regret our mistakes!

Interesting point. BTW, I wouldn't be surprised if Awo was the true winner of that election. Dunno why Awo and Zik didn't just swallow their pride and team up  


I anxiously await @abadaba's thoughts on this subject.

[quote author=Kilode?! link=topic=577593.msg7450149#msg7450149 date=1294002195]On a personal note; Tell him to lose that odious Portuguese/colonial bowler hat and I'll vote for him [/quote]Naw, the Ijaw hat is pretty fly! I'm thinking of rocking one myself

asha 80:
if ekiti people wherever they are cannot develop ekiti now then they can never develop it anytime in the future.the truth is that ekiti people see ekiti as a place of rest rather than a place that can be transformed to a thriving business area.

Sad, but true. The major problem I see is that families spent a lot of money in the 60s, 70s, 80s etc training people to do jobs that can only really be done outside of the state elsewhere in Nigeria, or better yet the US and Europe.

Sending your kid to get a masters in chemical engineering, then they aren't going to be practicing their trade in the state.

My own area of expertise is something that can be done within Ekiti, but requires good power supply and fast internet access (not the slow-@ss access we have in my village  )

[quote author=Kilode?! link=topic=577593.msg7450059#msg7450059 date=1294000966]Except I'm reading wrongly, I think Ekiti is actually 4Billion/month, yes it includes LGAs (I have the separate tabulation below)

haha I think Ekiti can do better than 20 Naira per day even if they only focus on Yam and Ikogosi Spring water! This oil dependency nonsense is killing our people.

With all the Brainpowers bursting at the seams and wasting away all over Ekiti, they should be a major research center/state for Nigerian industries when we finally get there. I see quiet research incubators/facilities nesting on the beautiful hills of Efon Alaaye -only if we can get it right.

http://www.fmf.gov.ng/portal/uploads/files/FAAC/lgc_faac_April2008.pdf[/quote]Hrm, looks like I toally misread the document. I was under the impression that the "distribution for excess crude" listed there was a one-time thing, not monthly. So from this new document you posted, my thought was 1.8 billion to the state, 1.12 billion to the LGs, so roughly 2.9-3 billionish ot the state. I also looked at the previous months, not all of them have it.

Sort of annoying that the site doesn't have more recent months posted.

I guess to be more accurate I should tabulate for the entire year and average.

Anyway, I completely agree with your sentiment.

Hopefully you won't take it for arrogance when I say this, but give Ekiti State fast internet access and good power supply, and we will be able to compete for contracts with Dell/Hewlett-Packard/etc to do phone tech support. One of those contracts alone brings in probably north of $1 million a month

Or train the students at Ado-Ekiti how to do good web design and bid on the numerous web design projects offered on craigslist out here in SF which pay like $1 or $2k for 12-15 hour's work. . .

At least with web design/tech support, there is no worry that your governor will steal your money and hide it away in Switzerland 

And these are two fairly simply things one can do to bring in money, assuming good power supply and internet access.

So please forgive me if I'm not very impressed by the current FG allocations and the largesse of the ND.

Starvation, indeed.

[quote author=Kilode?! link=topic=577593.msg7449954#msg7449954 date=1293999197]See 2008 numbers below. Ekiti gets about the smallest allocation.[/quote]So $12 million/month for Ekiti State.

Chicken scratch. Given our population of 2.7 million, $4.44/month. 15 cents a day. 22 naira/day

I'd much rather have 24/7 electricity supply than 22 naira/day. I'm more sure most Ekiti would agree

But no doubt we would all starve to death without this 22 naira a day

EDIT: Do these #s take into account LGA monies as well?

EDIT #2: Slight miscalc. . .

Beaf:
Give your voice to true federalism.

Indeed. Federalism is the answer, rather than the centralist arrangement we currently have. That and increased resource control would do the entire nation a lot of good, imo.

oyb:
ghandi - enough for everyone's need, not everyone's greed

unless they are able to produce leaders and those leaders are able to take on the militants etal and force people to a new vision it will be more of the same

At that point it won't be my problem. Will be just like when I flick on the TV and see kids starving in Chad or East Africa. I feel bad, but feel no great obligation to help out.

At that point, all I'll care about is that they fulfill whatever natural gas contracts we've signed with them so that the power plants (and thus factories) of the SW are running. Any other wahala is theirs and theirs alone.

jason123:
what sort of question is this where do you want itsekiris (ALMOST THE WHOLE OF DELTA STATE) to join ND or Biafra lol. nah!!! ND would have been good because you yorubas are tribalist but with the way these ijaw people kill my people and the activites of edwin clark in delta state. NEVER!!! atleast we know we would we working with progressives free education and etc. well if you do not believe me, let the country divide today and you would see the result!!!!

I feel you man, but it isn't that easy, even if the Itsekiri vote in a referendum to join. Warri is a very mixed town, for example. Would be quite difficult to sort out cleanly.
Easiest situation for you would be if they just treated ya'll with equality so you could feel comfortable in a ND republic.

9ijaMan:
LWKMDFHO!

Beaf is like a dieing man who's looking for others to go under with him! Unfortunately  every other state will desert his ND fight and we all know Bayelsa cannot go it alone.

Nah, Bayelsa produces a sh1tload of oil and would be fine, even with the small landsize. Problem of course is guys like Alamieyeseigha. But even with dudes like that robbing his people blind, there would still be enough money to build a relatively prosperous country.

Yeah, not sure which way Edo, Itsekiri, Kwara, and Kogi would go. Western Kogi is entirely Yoruba, it is quite interesting. Even driving through Lokoja, I saw tons of Yoruba names on the political signs. My dad's driver tells me that Yoruba is understood in most of the state as well (not sure how much I believe him about this, though.)

Personally, I think it would be in the best (economic) interest of Kwara to join the SW rather than the North. But who knows how things would shake out. . .

texazzpete:
He is a pastor and member of PFN, and influential one for that matter. He should be condemning or at least speaking against what was going on. Doing nothing is shirking his duties as a 'Man of God'.
Was he a 'government agent' or 'policeman' when he campaigned for the transfer of power to GEJ as Acting President?

How do you know he hasn't? Or are you suggesting that speaking out against this obvious wrong should be what consumes most of his time and energies? You'll have to do better than that to justify him neglecting his duties. . . in fact, perhaps you should prepare a list of his duties so we can see what else he is punting on In particular, what %age of his time should he be spending on politics versus witchhunts in Akwa Ibom, o thou expert on religious matters and duties?

The buck of security ultimately rests with GEJ, but he is not a miracle worker.
It took three weeks to catch the Washington Sniper in 2002, and this was with the combined efforts of the FBI, ATF, Secret Service, several police departments and a whole lot of media coverage. This was in America, a country with a massive fingerprints database, experienced forensics departments and technology and a wide network of surveillance cameras. And the breakthrough only came swiftly when the killers began carelessly releasing clues.
Yet you muppets expect GEJ to apprehend these bombers quickly, using the shoddy tools available to him?

What about preventing bombs? Or acting on information beforehand? Or inviting whoever it takes to do the work if you cannot? I'm tired of hearing excuses, I want results. And if GEJ is unable to deliver, step out of the way for someone who can.
And yes, we understand that the tools might be relatively mediocre. But a person with sense in their heads with inadequate tools usually seeks to improve them, rather than whining about their (lack of) quality. . .

You see that squiggly symbol beside what I wrote? That's called a 'question mark'. I was asking Gbawe who he felt was a better alternative. I cannot see where your 'foolish reasoning' comment comes from, I can only assume it's due to you consuming too much alcohol in this festive period. .

Your reasoning is foolish, because again you are trying to divert attention away from the job he is doing by attempting to imply that Atiku and Ribadu at not suitable alternatives. Hell, I'd much rather go with someone likely to fail (as you suggest Atiku and Ribadu are) than a known failure like GEJ. What is the point of sticking with a clear incompetent?

Once again, I'll remind you that i asked Gbawe a question as to what he'd have done differently. Was i providing any answer? You're just a dolt.
However, to answer your moronic post, there are tens of thousands of sites a bomb could have been planted in Jos. Despite massive manhunts, snipers were still able to gun down at least 3 more victims in Washington DC in North America. There's no guarantee that drafting 100,000 soldiers in Jos could have prevented those explosions. in fact, the odds are still very much with the bombers even if you have ten thousand troops on the streets of Jos.

Then no doubt we should just fold our hands and quit, since the problem is insurmountable. After all, all other countries in the world are as hapless and helpless in the face of insecurity and chaos as Nigeria. We should accept it as the norm. Israel for example is bombed all the time by Islamic terrorists. Osama Bin Laden bombs NYC every Tuesday, etc. . .

if Jonathan resigns, Sambo takes over. I take it you're providing a cast-iron guarantee that Sambo or David Mark or even yourself would do better?

Better to give an unknown the chance to fail than a known failure the chance to fail again.

alj harem:
dapo i know you are been sarcastic ,,,but seriously does lagos not have oil

does ondo and even part of osun have oil


beaf i pity you with your myopic views on south-south

Here is a map of Nigeria:

https://www.nigeriamasterweb.com/5mbebe/NigeriaStatesMap.gif

Nigeria has a goodly amount of offshore oil. I'm not sure what the exact amount is, though. As you can see, Lagos, Ogun and Ondo would all have oil. And we could bring in investors to explore for more oil off of our coast.

Anyway, I'm not at all worried. . . I think oil is overrated anyway.

@neotse: You miss the point. Under the current regulatory environment, the state had very little ability to control how much electricity it generates.

However, if it had the ability to regular power production and how much is charged per kWh, then it could assemble investors and have the entire state powered within 1-2 years.

Like, the fundamental problem is that the subsidy strongly discourages people from investing in the sector. Why invest in generating electricity when it costs $0.10/ kWh to produce and you are mandated to sell it to for $0.04/kWh? (these are approximate numbers, but you get the idea.)

Like I said, I don't much care if Nigeria disintegrates or not. Whatever economy is lost from the measly oil allocations will be made up from simply fixing electricity supply. Something that could be easily done with a regulatory environment in which each state controls the rules governing electricity supply. Then when you add investing in roads, fixing agriculture, investing in manufacturing, then the sky really is the limit. . .

Lagos doesn't even need the ND for the natural gas to power those barges. It would be nice to continue buying cheap pipelined gas from them, but we might have a safer and more secure supply importing LNG for the gas power plants. . .