₦airaland Forum

Nigeria is dead. Let's not deceive ourselves

- Paul Adefarasin

airmark:

Don't play, it's trado-modern combo.

This pump action go stand AK 47?

OkpaNsukkaisBae:
Congratulations to Rangers Int'l.
9x Nigerian Premier League champions.
They have matched Enyimba as the team with the highest number of league titles.

Mission 9 🏆 completed👌💯

Holy! Holy! Holy!
Enugu Rangers is another Champion.


But I doubt if Enyimba will ever go back to its glory days

MonsieurCoder:
Quote me any day you are ready.

🤝

Again?

abduleez1:
That Ribadu dey look like one damn Terrorist sympathizer.

I think there's something in that system that makes them take it easy on terrorism when they enter there.

MonsieurCoder:
Yes. If he comes 2nd you win. Yes.

Such audacity

Well, I think it's too early to make any speculation. Anything fit still happen.

So, respectfully, I cannot take this bet at this point

MonsieurCoder:
I'm curious. Will you be willing to put this to a bet? If PO comes any position above 3rd, you win or if PO gets up to 6.1M votes you also win

Wait.

You are saying if PO comes Second, I win?

I just want to be clear

raumdeuter:
So campaigning to the average Northerner

1. APC we are the ruling party and its sure that 2031 under Shetimma is sure for North

2. NDC vote for us we are hoping that Obi will pnly spend 4yrs even though he is eligible for 8yrs and hand over Kwankwanso in 2031

3. ADC vote for Atiku and get the presidency now. Instantly

If you are a Northerner in Sokoto Maiduguri, which of the 3 options would you follow and in which order

I already said that "It is left for the Average Northener to buy it"

I don't also know what he told his people that gave him 1 million votes in 2023.

raumdeuter:
Obi will get less because

1. There are more APC governors now in the south than ever before
2. They have seen what benefit a governor that delivers get from Tinubu (e.g Wike)
3. There are more Southern Christians in the contest to bite into Obi votes
4. Some former Obidients have lost interests or defected to either APC or ADC

Like I said earlier, the bias is even worse. Infact, if Statisense does an analysis on the voting number by religion in 2027, out Muslim brothers will be more shocked.

And if you think your definition of Obidients starts from Twitter, it's laughable. The real voting population is not on Twitter. Cubana Chief Priest can explain better between half a dozen and 6

Let us not start plusing and minusing when God still has time in his hands.

We will be here in 2027 to laugh at ourselves and collect our Ls where necessary

MonsieurCoder:
Quoted for reference.

Yes,

The worst Obi can get is within the same 6 million he got in 2023

You can quote this one. It's a clearer reference

raumdeuter:
Once Tinubu is getting more votes that is affecting Obis votes

E.g say A Southern state that Obi won has 100 votes. In 2023. Obi got 90

Now with the current dynamics, state governor now in APC use his influence to get Tinubu 20, Jonathan collect 5 or 10, say Makinde get 2. What is left for Obi? How will he see the 90 he got in 2023

So the voting population won't increase abi?

So we shouldn't expect new voters at all?

Make una take am easy abeg.

GloriousGbola:
Ultimately the governors will control voting in their states. Most of them are on board with tinubu one way or another.

As it is the governors now have a personal investment in the outcome of presidential election

I am talking for the SE.

3 Governors were in this same control in 2023. What exactly was the outcome?

Time will tell, my brother.

7 months is still a lot of time to even speculate anything

GloriousGbola:
The ss/se is obi's stronghold. So it is about reducing his total votes in the area.

Makinde imho is simply strategizing for a post tinubu Nigeria.

If you still believe in kwankwaso pls see izzou.

Kwankwaso said some weeks ago that running in the NDC is so that the North West and Kano can produce the next President in 2031.

That's already a sellable point to his Kano and Northern Brethren. APC has not promised the NW presidency in 2031.

Kwankwaso is not in NDC to make Nigeria great again. He's in it for 2031, and we shall tell if the average Northener will buy that with time.

MonsieurCoder:
Same people go vote am, abi? We will be here.

Yes...Same people will vote him.

At least, I am being realistic to believe that he won't get more than he got in 2023.

What I find funny is how you people are slashing his votes. You can tell me Tinubu will get more, without telling me Obi will get less.

raumdeuter:
2023 election the entire APC was not fully behind Tinubu. Buhari Amaechi and many in the cabinet did not work for Tinubu


Right now.. Its Tinubu directly managing the affair, all these governors have direct access and control of the party.

I will say in most SS and SE states Tinubu will get more votes than he got in 2023

You can say this, without also saying Obi will get lesser votes. And that's what I wanted to correct him on.

MonsieurCoder:
I did not say the middle belt won't vote Christian again. I said there are more Christians in the race now. Obi, Makinde, Donald Duke, who knows if GEJ joins? All the Christian votes in the North and South are not going to one person. It's not that Obi won't benefit, it's that there are others who will play the same card and also benefit.

The SE and SS governors did not have the APC structures in place to give Tinubu the support he needed. That has changed. Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo are now full blown APC. APC is now the strongest opposition party in Anambra (used to be PDP). The entire SS is now fully APC. Tinubu now has federal might that they can use to support him. Most of them are now done with their 1st term and have nothing to lose and everything to gain by fully supporting Tinubu. Not that PO does not win all SE states but not anything close to those margins in 2023. Tinubu will get his 25% in almost every SE state at the very least.

PO failed to get 25% in 24 states in 2023. Nobody is yet to tell me how he can do that now. He has not broken new ground in the core north. Except Kano. He has lost ground to APC in the South and there are more Christian candidates in the race now. If anything it's clear he will get less votes than he did the last time. The votes he will get in Kano will not make up for the ground he will lose to APC in the south and the other Christian candidates in the North.

Ebonyi was full blown APC since 2020 or so. Do you know any other party that has any seat there?

Imo has been full blown APC since Rochas. APC has won everything there. So how exactly is Tinubu going to change anything there.

APGA adopted Tinubu in 2023 and 2027. After the Presidential election, they all voted their APGA. So what exactly will change in 2027. Obi Cubana is shouting City Boy, but his own blood brother is still in APGA and will contest under it again.

You're absolutely correct about Tinubu winning 2027. I cannot contest that, except the Lord does so.

But downplaying Obi's votes in 2027 is what I find funny. The same people wey vote am go still vote am, irrespective of tribes.

And what's more funny is that the Religious bias is now worse in the Middle belt, than in 2023 sef

Emaprince:
Cc

Nigerian youths are really wicked if they mean you.

Look at the kind mockery they make of Bon bread.

I just saw their page on tiktok...I laugh ..come dey pity the owner of the bread

They have been doing a lot of content and damage control lately.

MonsieurCoder:
If Kwankwaso was politically capable of doing his homework in the North, he will be the presidential candidate and Peter Obi will be his VP. He won 1 state in the North (and entire country) in 2023 as the presidential candidate. He did not even get 25% in most states in the North. That's the person you think will convince the North to vote an igbo man who is a Christian and can constitutionally do two terms. Lol. Can't wait for next year.

Peter Obi is not flooring anybody in the middle belt. He benefited from being the only Christian in the race among the main contestants in 2023. That's not happening again. Tinubu will get significantly more votes in the south south and south east than he did last time. Every single governor in both regions including Otti and Soludo who are not in his party are now supporting him. Na here we go dey.

I am not saying you're wrong oh.

But this is exactly the permutations that was made for Obi in 2023, until he pulled those figures.

Your reason for Obi not flooring the Middle belt is because he benefited from a religious bias in 2023. Well, the bias is even now worse. If there's any reason Obi will even win votes outside the SE, it is the religious bias in 2027. Pastors are openly showing it, But you think that Obi won't benefit from it.

The same 2023 had 5 SE governors supporting Tinubu

Direct Support
Umahi
Hope
Soludo

Indirect Support (G5)
Ugwuanyi and Ikpeazu

But again in 2027, you think Soludo and Otti will pull a surprise for Tinubu.


You may be right oh. I no be God, but your analysis was exactly what people wrote in 2022 about him. And yes, I agree that it is still Tinubu's election to lose.

Tinubu pulled 200k votes in Ebonyi

A40:
They are showing you that the rigging will be nuclear cos some of these numbers I'm seeing is crazy even for APC levels

I'm telling you.

I agree with Elder that Nigerians should not be saved. Let them vote him again and cry.

Ellexy:
Dem just dey do warm up for the main election. Rigged election, na from primaries you go know..

Figures wey no make sense.

raumdeuter:
Shey dem dey use PVC for primaries?

The thing get as e be!

Just primaries, and see the absurd figures flying left right and centre.

Just primaries oh!

BlueRayDick:
APC really wan whine Fubara till the very end 😂

Governor wey dem no gree give return ticket , dem say make he come oversee phantom presidential primary election committee.

raumdeuter:
Sarafadeen Alli won but this numbers are probably fake and someone just manufactured them on facebook

Last election, Makinde won with about 500K votes, Sanwoolu in a significantly more populous Lagos got 700K votes

If Tinubu had insisted on him not testing his popularity, it would be like Tinubu is a dictator, He was advised but wanted to test the field and Tinubu wished him goodluck

Its a gift to know when the tide is against you and act accordingly

Fake is an understatement.

Where are they forging these figures from?

Realmrsean:

A man selling bootleg merchandise outside of the Cardi B concert in Atlanta resists arrest and fights with a cop. pic.twitter.com/Z3tjDoW83y

— Everything Georgia (@GAFollowers) May 20, 2026

I can't remember seeing a Nigerian Policeman that is this built, physically

KingTom:
Simple! South West President dey fold hands while terrorists destroy the West

My brother, I tire

Dem dey slaughter people, NSA dey talk say dem never integrate Amotekun to Forest guard

Country dey Code red, dem still dey ask for Application form

What stops the office of the NSA from approving arms for Amotekun?

So until they change the name to "Forest guard", before they can bear arms? Na name go suddenly provide security?

SW governors should go and arm Amotekun and let all these nonsense killings stop

PDPGuy:
A Federal High Court has just thrown a lifeline to recent losers of the primaries, because the court has ruled that INEC’s May 10 deadline for parties to submit their membership register contravenes the 2026 Electoral Act

Now, those politicians are free to decamp to other parties. Who even knows whether Atiku would decamp to the NDC 🤣😂

What if you decamp, and INEC overturns it at the Appeal court?

Another wahala