Jedisco's Posts
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sconp:I don't think it's the one playing out... I wouldn't call that a head snd shoulder... What I see playing out now is a breakdown of the symmetrical triangle..... Also, with the triangle already at the apex, it's less likely to be a fakeout... except it morphs into another pattern What's more concerning is the betece dominance (2nd pic).... It's looking like a retest of the level it bounced off during the last selloff... A bounce of the dominance here (which is already happening) makes sense.... That'd see proper capitulation in alyts... Thankfully, I was stopped out early yesterday... I'm not playing this... Happy to wait and see how the next 48hrs unfold....
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jedisco:Seems we finally get a good green week... Still being cautious and utilising stops as market is still shaky.... But so far, it's looking good |
I see alot of people still chasing after unlisted coyns.... I usually will not discuss other people's trades but on this, I'd say it's worth treading with caution... Alot of folks came into the market during a huge alyt coyn boom that last happened 4 yrs ago... It's not always that way... If bitc0in is going to go into a longer consolidating phase (which seems likely), alyts may not perform as well and we may not see lots of the multiple percentage pumps we saw over the past few months for a while.... Also, whenever another alyt season resumes, it'd come with new coyns as the old ones will have too many bag holders... So holding some and waiting may not make sense. Alot of pumped coyns in past rallies cannot be sold today as they're worthless with no liquidity..... Lastly, betece dominance is doon due a bounce... In this market, no one wants to be caught offside. |
NaughtyBrainiac:Hehe... You're new to crypt0, you haven't bought any coyn yet but you already want to be an escrow service... Take care not to be scammed... For whst you want to do, my advice would be to register on binance, and use the p2p option. |
Tobex4realTobex234:I have stopped waiting for prices to drop and just carried on as I'm able... Cos it seems prices keep rising... Obviously, folks who can easily pass costs over to the consumers will benefit more |
[quote author=wwwtortoise post=102416925]It is pathetic. Many schemes and policies that see daylights are in favor (monetarily or politically) of the “sacred cows”. Sharia is blinding the northern youths from their atrocities. If they succeed with gagging SW & SE with bans (crypt0, twitter . . . ), border closure and other detrimental policies. Then it’s going to be a long wait to 2023.[/quote]Hehe... Nigerias problem is a longstanding one which cuts across and has unfortunately worsened of late... Just look at the fuel subsidy debacle that has carried on for decades.... What's even more interesting is that the amount spent on TAM of the refineries over the years is more than enough to build new ones |
pussiboner:Good question you asked.... I thought same in 2014-2015 and felt foriegn investors rushing to leave the country then at black market rates were being overly fearful. Perhaps they saw something I didn't... There's an associated risk with every decision.. that's why one doesn't test the depth of a river with both feet... The naira might appreciate to 380 by December..same also it can depreciate to 550 by December... The good thing with the naira/usd is that we have over 40 years of data to look at... In investing, I appreciate trends... Whether it was during IBB, Abacha, Jonathan or Buhari, at no time over the last 40 years has there been a significant gap between official and black market rates that the naira did not continue to devalue... As a matter of fact, the only periods the naira appreciated against the dollar were periods when the rates merged... It was when I saw this and knew that its almost impossible for the naira to appreciate while having two rates with a 20% difference that I made my decision.... My plan is simple, as far as the CBN maintains this dual rates (which they are keen on doing for now), I'd hold a significant amount of my savings in usd and try to lock ip the rest in local assets (not just leave it in the bank). Whenever both rates merge, I'd cautiously move back into the naira and invest and wait for the next time such scenario repeats I don't have access to cheap dollars and I don't run a business where I easily can pass costs on to consumers. So I have to protect myself for the future. |
Lazyyouth4u:Tobex has explained how to do it via certain banks with local branches... For me months back, I converted most of my savings to stable coins which are based on market rates. Then rate was below 400... Now, its over 500.. And afterwards, didn't keep unnecessary sums of naira in the bank... Always looked for something to put it into... Understandably, this pattern may not suit everyone... But if say I'm saving to buy a car or land that'd take a while to build up the sum, keeping a chunk of such savings in usd would make sense as that'd guarantee almost 20% interest per annum over the naira using current market trend.... Worse case scenario, it remains stable For someone who needs such capital to run their business or who has a non-depreciable asset they could put it into, then arguing against saving in usd will make sense.... Of course, all this excludes funds required for daily living |
Biafran4life:The devaluation issue is not really about folks in diaspora... Frankly speaking, they're the ones that may even benefit with the way CBN is gifting naira for sending in dollars. It's easy to look at one aspect of the economy and forget the rest... It's worth remembering that over 90% of Nigerians have less than 500k in their account.... 90% is a significant majority Even if war breaks out in Nigeria today, some people will still feed fat off it and acquire properties.... Afterall, some people have made billions from the fight against boko haram and kidnapping. That doesn't mean large parts of Borno have been left economically desolate. Same way folks who are round-tripping cbn dollars are making millions weekly... The thing is the economy has to bear the brunt of those millions made out of thin air.... Simply put, inflation will persist and the poor will get poorer For folks running certain businesses, they can easily transfer the cost back to their customers and even speculate to make more profit... But what happens to the remaining 90% of Nigerians, the salaried folks, those earning less than 100k e.t.c how are they coping with the increased prices... It is these folks that determine where the country is headed not the few rich. |
chigo4u:I wouldn't say never on that.... If that happens just like in Lebanon, banks will connive with the very rich to move their forex out before it takes effect... It's the not so very connected that'd be trapped. All the policies CBN brought out to tackle devaluation has so far failed.... There are little tricks left... These tricks are not new... they've been used in other climes... Looking back, First thing CBN did was to blame rice and certain imports, then FG locked the border. Next desperation started to set in and they blocked all parallel forex tranfer into the country insisting it must go via a specific route (thst failed), then they banned crypt0 (as they thought incoming transfers were now through that route), next was to start giving folks sending in forex extra naira to appease them to use the CBN medium- this was the height of desperation which of course has failed.... Now, that folks are no more buying the rice card and are asking questions, Theres are 3 possibilities I'm seeing.. First is a proper rise in oil price to bring some succour and allow them continue their rigmarole, next is to ban dom accounts under the patriotism narrative, last would be for the cbn to set up their portal to handle incoming diaspora remittance and pay out at the market rate... |
Ibime:With the way it's being talked about, I'm not as keen on it... Moreso, it's quite a lagging indicator and would usually show what is known... Obviously, things have changed I'm taking things step by step and playing stuff in range until something PA shows otherwise... Range is quite clear One thing to remember is that the 50-60k distribution range lasted about 3 months.... If it's going to be breached, consolidation to breach it should also take sometime... |
OgogoroFreak:Not even loss.... What naira denominated investment has been able to keep up with the rate of devaluation over the past 4 and 10 years. By simply holding the dollar, you're very likely to come out better off than folks investing in the naira if this trend continues... |
[quote author=wwwtortoise post=102413060]Animal farm (by George Orwell) comes to mind. Power intoxicates. The bourgeoisie are having a field day in this economic crisis. The northern political heavyweights control 90% BDC operations in Nigeria. They source dollar at sweet rates then resell at cut-throat rates (parallel market). A one time CBN governor (Sanusi Lamido) once brought this to limelight but trust Nigerians not to take it as something to worry about. Religion has blinded us as a nation. We need to push it aside and start asking questions. We deserve a good life here on earth 1st. My only concern now is how to successfully convert 80% of my naira to USD by monday.[/quote]The annoying thing is that the two main issues affecting our economy today (fuel and dollar subsidy) are based on same pattern. About 5-6 years back, Sanusi said he could manufacture millions of naira just by making a phone call and getting cheap dollars... Of course, alot of people have been doing that hence the persistent pressure on the naira.... I'd say with good confidence that over 50% of dollars got at the official rate is round-triped back to sell at over 20% instant profit and that cycle keeps repeating.... Folks are wondering why the Naira continues to slide....... Folks at CBN are fully perpetuating this but yet they keep coming to convince us that dangote refinery will solve this... These same folks would come and preach patriotism to the masses they impoverished after stashing stashing sums in foriegn currencies and tell us that it's rice causing the naira to slide |
Lazyyouth4u:It's not that way... It's about survival... Look at countries who had galloping inflation and see how it went.... Just like the Titanic wreck, it's those last at the door that suffer... Far back it became known that Osibanjo had a good chunk of his savings in hard currency... A while back, Dangote did thesame... If nothing sensible is done by the CBN, soon enough most average folks would start looking for an exit... It's always at that point that failed currencies start spiralling down... I remember asking someone here who felt devaluation didn't affect him.... The question was to point one one item in the market devaluation hasn't affected? I'm involved in a building project over the last 24 months, I'm now paying double for some items that I bought initially... I don't even know who's trying to fleece me and who's being genuine.... Most of the populace are losing their purchasing power without knowing. |
Fuhrerfran6:They can freeze all outgoing transfers dom accounts and only pay out the naira equivalent based on tge CBN rate... That's similar to what CBN did |
What is really interesting about this naira quagmire is how folks who benefit from it were able to convince those who bear the brunt that they're the ones who are the cause of the falling naira..... Look at those who could access the naira at the cbn rate... Those travelling abroad or going for pilgrimage, those going for medical treatment, those schooling abroad and certain connected 'manufacturers'.... These are not everyday folks... How does the average Nigerian benefit from that list that he's been forced to pay double for everyday items.. Yet, the government was able to convince the masses that its the akara lady who buys okrika clothes for her child (simply because she cannot afford boutique prices) that's the cause... Or that its those buying foriegn rice or importing phones e.t.c.. but then our It's a sad tale of how the rich takes from the poor and makes the poor blame other poor folks for their problems |
Tobex4realTobex234:It's not even about looking for USD denominated investments... I always look at trends for over a long period before choosing where to invest... Someone who kept 1000 usd at 120,000 naira 11 years ago would today have 500,000 naira. What other naira denominated investment can match that?Which local and 'safe' investment has kept up with the dollar over the past 4 years?.. Although this may not sound patriotic, fact is that by simply holding the dollar, you are very likely to outperform those invested in a local asset be it bonds, TB's, stocks e.t.c.... Whenever, Emiefele decides to stop his majic, one can convert back and look for where to invest. At the early days of the devaluation, most foreign investors were rushing to leave at black market rates... I initially thought they were panicking unnecessarily.... They must have seen the endless quagmire the CBN was plunging itself into....... They've been trying every trick left (e.g closing borders, dashing folks naira, banning crypt0 e.t.c) to no avail without addressing the main issue... Their next target should be domiciliary accounts |
Tobex4realTobex234:So far, Nigeria has followed the currency crises in Lebanon toe to toe with CBN copying every step they made. Earlier this year, we had our 3rd devaluation when CBN started giving folks extra naira for every dollar sent back. That was a red flag abd the point when I knew the devaluation might get really worse down the road. Now, we have the 4th devaluation already... CBN has been waiting for dangote refinery which I don't think will help as he has dollar denominated loans to offset. Next step by CBN would be to ban domiciliary accounts or force withdrawals at their rate... Sometimes, when I look at the issues playing out in Nigeria, I begin to ask myself, what is wrong with us... Same issue playing out with petrol subsidy and dollar subsidy which are the biggest problems with our economy now. With petrol subsidy, we're enriching a few and supplying the whole of West Africa subsidized petrol in the name of subsidy... With dollar subsidy, we're also enriching a few and perpetuating the continued devaluation of the naira.... Whoever knows Emiefele should explain to him basic maths- since the origin of the naira, nothing has guaranteed the continued devaluation of the naira as having two exchange rates..... This time will not be different |
sconp:Yeah... This one isn't as clean as that of last week... Also, the 4hr close has was a strong one making me lean towards it not playing out... Betece just seems to be ranging and doing its thing |
A head and shoulder on betece 4hrly? I hope not.... Stops in place but if it confirms, it should run the liquidity between 33-34k... Should take a while as it's 4hr chart
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Maycher:Why not save yourself the whole stress, convert to a stable coyn nd sell that |
MasterPDON:Depends on what you're trading... Larger time frames supercede lower ones but its the PA on lower timeframes that morph into larger ones.... Any reversal or selloff would always start from the LTF but most times, would have been obvious on the HTF... LTFs contain lots of noise and fakeouts |
Hamzashaf99:I will not advise anyone starting out in this market to day trade... It's too much of a hassle and you're likely to leave with nothing.... Don't be carried away by the seeming profits they make.... it's not always as ut seems... In most markets, investors usually make more than traders at the end a d are more likely to leave with profits made Lower time frames contain alot of noise which one could get sucked into. Also, LTF are Trading the higher gives a perspective of where the market is headed...e.g if one focused on the weekly chart, it would have been obvious that 60k had been acting as resistance since January and such person would have sold or taken caution. Liquidity zones are areas where leverage traders are likely to place their stops... Usually in placing such stops, they do that at a level that they know once breached, price is likely to continue downwards/upwards... Funny enough, price seeks such liquidity... It's not something you need to bother yourself with that much if trading HTF. With time, such areas will become obvious... You don't have to rush to start trading against Bitc0in... Start with what pair works for you, and with time, you can proceed further |
One mistake most spot traders make is trying to micromanage their positions and catch every dip and rally... The earlier one knows it's impossible, the earlier your portfolio is saved... I trade better when I hold few positions, look at the charts once or twice a day and just set alerts at strategic positions... I don't see tge sense in babysitting positions as a spot trader.... If youve been doing it for a while, ask yourself how successful has it been... I'd use yesterday as an example.... When I woke, betece was dumping and I'd been stopped out on some alyt positions.... It was around 36.5k then but I knew it'd likely get down to 35k ish to take out the liquidity I talked about yesterday.. Eitherway, it was the first rejection off 40k and with 33k having held for so long, I expected the top to at least be tested more than once... Eitherway, my ada then was at 1.7, I could have sold and targetred 1.6 but I let it be and went about my day.... By evening, it was still at 1.7.... my point is simple...to me, not every trade is worth taking... Most folks who try to catch every move end up outdoing themselves... Look at the bigger picture, select your trades and avoid the noise... Crypt0 is a 24/7 volatile market... Always be at peace that you cant catch every move and trying to do that will only ruin your portfolio |
Ruben225571:The thing is that it's difficult to explain certain concepts to those still new in the market... Take doge for example, Elon started hyping it as far back as last year when it was still less than 1 cent.... But I can tell you that the number of times he hyped doge and it pumped are far less than the times he hyped it and it did nothing or dumped... The event you mentioned was a clear buy the rumour, sell the news one even though I played it wrongly at the time. Of recent, I was in doge when the news of coinbaz listing broke.... I shared my trade here- it rallied to resistance where I sold... Of course, a few minutes after it was listed, it dumped.... Now its back to support where I got in again.... Elon is not close to the biggest holder of bitc0in snd bitc0in does not have shares.... Why not take an experiment... Open an account... And anytime Elon or whoever tweets anything bullish about a coyn, rush to buy and do the opposite if bearish... Continue that pattern for 6 months and see whats left of your account... There are lots of new folks in crypt0 who would unfortunately be rinsed out on the basis of such.... After that, the market will look for another No need arguing over certain things, wouldn't be surprised in the next 6 months, there would be another narrative... |
Ruben225571:Some narratives I see are quite interesting.... This is a market that's valued well above 1 trillion usd... If it moves, it moves not because the rumour that some unknown folks are holding a party elsewhere... Also, anyone holding bitc0in volumes large enough to move the market, should be selling to accomplish a purpose and not because they are 'partying' The longer one stays in crypt0, the more you appreciate the market for what it is |
Talking about tracking certain alyts in a pullback to increase one's betece stash. Let me give an example with tfuel/betece Yesterday, my alerts went off when tfuel crossed the 0.01 level against betece which was a historical resistance on the weekly chart (1st pic).... I didn't get in as it was at resistance in usdt (400)... On the hourly chart (2nd pic) It rallied yesterday to 0.11 (10%) and during the dump today, came down nicely to retest that level.... I waited for some response and swapped sone of my betece into it at that level.... Its rallied to 0.12 which is a 20% move and I've taken sone profits back to betece targeting a retest of 0.11... To put things in perspective, if I made that trade with 1 betece, I'd have 1.2 betece now...... It's also worth being weary of knive catching... When market is in a range, identifying trades to maximize your betece value may be helpful 3 betece charts I'm watching are ada/betece, doge/betece and mkr/betece
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Betece rejected harshly off 39.5k... came down to clear liquidity at 36k with a nice bounce off it.... Most times, when betece starts dumping in a range, I look for the recent liquidity or nearest 4hr support... If it takes out a liquidity zone and doesn't show strength, it'd likely go for the next.... For now, there's some liquidity around 34k which is something to watch in the future.... I use such dips to see what alyts to get into... Usually select alyts that have held structure against betece... They tend to recover quicker abd increase one's betece stash... I see alot of folks eagerly waiting for sub 30k and I smile.... Betece can do whatever it wants, but don't underestimate how long betece can respect a structure/support moreso after a capitulation.. The increasing calls for sub 30k with every dip makes me think 30k would hold for a while... Folks should go back and look at the 6.4k or 8.2k level (on a daily/weekly chart) from 2017 to 2020 and see how price played around it.... Betece can remain in it's range much longer than most expect and then dump/pump when folks finally get comfortable... Another thing I'm quite certain of is that most eagerly waiting for sub-30k betece will pull their bids and not buy if it dips below to 25 or 20k.... bottoms are only obvious in retrospect..... P.s, I'm not saying 30k is the bottom, and frankly not concerned where it is...
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Ltc and link have had a distinct weekly patte5for a while now... Which is usually 2-3 weeks gree and 2-3 weeks red... The 2 previous weeks have been red for alyts... And with this week looking to end green, I'd lean towards next week also being green for alyts... A good number seemed to have had some mini consolidating over the past week and are primed for some rally... Ada, bnb, LTC, bch, aave, yfi, xrp/xlm, dash, eos are those I'm in/looking at...... Obviously, the market is still cautiously recovering if not already in position, jumping in on a green day aint usually the best...
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Not happy I'm missing the pump on ICP.... It reminds me of some majors e.g dot, aave when they listed... A good major which listed on multiple exchanges... Usually, there's the first selloff, ten an impulse pump from support (yellow arrow), then another continued selloff into support before a breakout...and afterwards, a more sustained consolidation The impulse pump caught my attention which coincidentally happened when betece sold off... Had set my alert at 100 but it bounced off 101... I'd look for a re-entry when things cool down
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jedisco:Most folks know my rule in trading alyts is simple... If it's not performing better than betece or eith, then no need... Alot of old folks traded eith on after this dip... I rather stuck with ada Of recent, I've been heavy in ADA... Against eith (1st chart), It's held the 0.06 level beautifully... Good chance it rallies if it continues to hold this. Against betece (2nd) it's at resistance, a flip of this resistance should bring significant room to the upside... On this, I'm still in position and watching
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Another example why I'm trading more into betece of recent... Looking at the doge/betece daily chart, on this last rally, I sold my doge yesterday into betece at 0.011 and 0.012 resistance which it had a clean rejection from... I'm targeting 0.0093-0.001 for a reentry which are tge daily and 4hrly support zones... Doing that, helped me partake in both the doge rally yesterday and betece rally today... Generally, betece charts are cleaner and easier to trade.
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