₦airaland Forum

The attached document was extracted from NNPC website showing the statisctic of domestic fuel consumption for year 2010.

http://www.nnpcgroup.com/Portals/0/Monthly%20Performance/2010%20ASB%201st%20edition.pdf

Why did NNPC left our the figures for MRS and OANDO. from the data, 6.3Billion litres of fuel was reported locally consumed in 2010. This translated to 17million barrels per day. What accounted for the balance of 18million barrels per day if total consumption was 35million barrels. Were they trying to hide something from the public ?. This is the more reason why this charade mustr stop. let us end this subsidy.

Iweala, you have my support

The comptroller General of the Nigerian Customs deserves to be sacked. Under his nose, an unprecedented magnitude of smuggling of petrol is being recorded. He is either part of the cartel or totally incompetent

koruji:
Analysis is full of holes.

1. Contrary to the anecdotes, smuggling is a small part of this whole story, so you are counting phantom savings that doesn't exist.

2. Counting the reduction in fuel consumption due to the more than doubling of the price of fuel is like a FATHER COUNTING HIS SAVINGS FROM REDUCING THE FEEDING OF HIS HOUSEHOLD FROM 3 MEALS A DAY TO ONE. That is senseless. Actual reductions in fuel demand mean actual reductions in the welfare of the average Nigerian, and at the end of the day of the economy as a whole. GEJ likes to say our economy is growing at 7%, but without palliative measures look that to drop to 4-5% this year.

3. If other countries join in increasing prices which reduces demand for petrol then the reduction in crude oil might cause the price of oil to go down by a couple of dollars. That translates to a real loss of revenue for Nigeria.


E le i ti a lai mo'kan fi n'se ara e lo po ju i.e. the injury to self is the biggest result of ignorance.

1. Available figures show that smuggling and "insider tradings" and corrupt practises accounts for more than 50% of the subsidy payments . how else do you explain a sudden increase in demand volumes even when economic activities are at the lowest. Demand for petrol was also not commensurate with growth/decline in Nigerian disposable income.

2. Increase in price will naturally cause people to be creative about the use of the commodity thereby bringing down the volume of fuel consumed


3. your third point is not a direct consequence of subsidy removal . That will happen with or without subsidy removal

Initial price increases of transportation and consumer goods are emotional responses. Over time, equilibrium price will be attained. Transport as percentage of production is less than 10% for most of our goods. Dont forget that the long distance vehicles that brings agric produce from the north and east are powered with diesel.

@Remii You cant rule out the fact that the unusual pressure on forex demand is traceable to the activities of the petrol importers.

Impact of subsidy removal on foreign exchange –Naira will be Stronger.

Facts

1. Subsidy removal will not impact on international price of crude oil.
2. Volume of crude oil exports will not be influenced.
3. By inference, government revenue from crude exports will remain same.

Questions

• What % of total Forex demand is used by the oil sector? 18% as at 2010, an increase by 23% from the previous year.

• Will demand for petrol imports increase or reduce?

Answers

1. It is an established fact that a huge chunk of the subsidized petrol ends up in neighboring countries through smuggling.
2. By implication of subsidy removal, the gap between the price of petrol in Nigeria and neighboring countries will be narrowed thereby discouraging further smuggling
3. Absence of smuggling will translate to reduced demand for foreign exchange.
4. Genuine demand for LC viz-a-viz demand for forex will also drop in the likely consequence that fuel consumption will reduce. This follows from the logic that higher price will translate into lower demand.
5. Overall, in view of an expected constant supply, a reduction in demand for foreign exchange will translate to a drop in price.
6. A stronger Naira will translate to a reduction in inflation because Nigeria has a high propensity for Importation.
7. As the naira becomes stronger, the price of imported petrol will drop.

organized private sector -

civil society

religious fanatics

honourable lagbaja

son of the soil

political thugs - only in Naija

politcal enemies -

opposition party - as if they are opposed on every issue

do or die

high powered delegation

@sshalom,

no one is going to sit you down and dish you the information privately. There is enough out there. watch the town hall meeting on fuel subsidy removal and hear the full debate with contributions from government and civil society. it has severally been shown on channels and STV

@samstadam you forgot to mention in your "fine" story that the farmer could not fend for his family's  needs anymore and had to borrow in the bank hoping that his unborn children would pay back the debt. you also forgot to mention that one of the farmer's children was glutonous and ate up all the portion of his brother and became mobidly obesse while his brothers were starving to death. The obesse brother is the nigerian middle class and the rich (the fuel guzzlers) while the starving brothers are the poor masses.

The argument that a litre of Petrol costs N39.50 is a ridiculous analysis aimed at deceivng the people by  the same cartel who are benefiting from the corruption embedded in the susbisdy. The argumentt  is based on a premise that the current allocation of 450,000metric of  crude oil to the NNPC for local refining and international swap should be considered free by the federal Government and only refining fees should be charged.  how on earth can anyone in their right frame of mind think that 450,000 barrels of oil at $108(current price of Brent) and for 365 days should be burnt up on our roads in the name of fuel subsidy , benefitted by the middle class (with their fuel guzzling jeeps and generators) and the rich(the smugglers and rent seekers) when we can sell same and use them to address our more urgent national infracstructure needs.

This is the link to the analysis http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=71968:the-cost-of-one-litre-of-petrol&catid=72:focus&Itemid=598

phreakabit:
[size=18pt]80% ? [/size] Guy you go don fail maths/stats for school wella .

For crying out loud, the project handler says its 80% completed , you said its not, what has that got to do with anything ? whether its 90% or 0%, the pictures and evidences are there to see. common sense is no longer common.

Lagos is definitely moving on. No amount of negative tirades can wish away this noble achievements of the action governor. Fashola keep on keeping on

Does anyone know where i can get the service of a children psychologist here in Nigeria. Your response will be appreciated.

Now I understand why people are critical of your objectivtiy.must u defend this charade at all cost ?. What breakdown are you looking when there wasn't even a need in the first. Is it about breakdown or the value dreviation from investment. They can choose to add whatever they like to the breakdown. The question is what is really neeeded ?. To start with, where are the rails to use them ?

@Beaf.


To start with the Nigerian Railway Corporation have more than enough signalling capacity on that route to the extent that they tried to sell part of it to the private sector. They were not successful because the stations are poorly managed and often without Diesel to power them. They have both VHF and microwave in all the repeater sites. They operate on 6GHZ radio links and the equipments comes cheap. A set of radio for a repeater costs less than $20k. They already have masts, base station equipments, generators, inverters. Name them.Now they are asking for another N6B. It is a complete fraud

@Beaf.


To start with the Nigerian Railway Corporation have more than enough signalling capacity on t
hat route to the extent that they tried to sell part of it to the private sector
. They were not su
ccessfult because the stations are poorly managed and often without Diesel to power them. They have both VHF and microwave in all the repeater sites. They operate on 6GHZ radio links and the equipments comes cheap. A set of radio for a repeater costs less than $20k. They already have masts, base station equipments, generators, inverters. Name them.Now they are asking for another N6B. It is a complete f
raud.

The Railway contract is bougous and overbloated. The so called signalling equipments are not different from what obtains in the GSM sector and it would have costed a small fraction of that amount.
The signalling should have been outsourced to the private sector, a company like Helios with exisitng telecomms infracstructure would have done a great job.

http://www.punchng.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=3728:muslim-youths-batter-pastor-over-comment&Itemid=542

Sectarian violence almost erupted at Gwarimpa Estate, Abuja on Sunday when one Pastor Ernest Onyems of the Shore House Church narrowly escaped being lynched by Muslim youths who were offended by his comments over the use of a road as praying ground for the Sallah celebration.

Before policemen deployed in the area to provide security intervened, the cleric was thoroughly beaten before he managed to jump a fence into a house in the area.

Our correspondent, who was at the scene, observed the youths, who were chanting Allahu Akbar (God is great), forced their way into the compound where Onyems took refuge and attempted to drag him out.

The policemen prevented the mob from dragging him out and vandalising his car.

Trouble began when the pastor, who was on his way to church in his Mercedes Benz 190, was trapped by the gridlock caused by the blockade of the road.

Angered by his inability to find his way out of the logjam, Onyems described their action as unreasonable.

"I don’t know why these Muslims would just abandon their cars on the road because they want to pray; this kind of thing cannot happen in Lagos, there would have been a riot," he was heard shouting at the top of his voice.

The cleric had hardly made another comment when some youths abandoned their prayers and accosted him. He was not given a chance to speak as they pounced on him, dragging him by his tie.

Onyems struggled to break free from the youths and jumped over the fence into a compound. But the angry youths went after him and continued the beating injuring him in the face and other parts of the body.

The police officers came to his rescue and pacified the angry youths who threatened to go on the rampage to attack whoever dared to insult Islam.

The cleric was so frightened that he refused to leave the building long after the youths had left.

He told our correspondent that he lost his two GSM phones and N6,000 during the attack.

"I didn’t know that these people could just attack me because I criticised them for blocking a public road; they really wanted to kill me but for providence," Onyems lamented.

The pastor who was too weak to drive was subsequently escorted by the police officers to the Gwarimpa Police Station where he lodged a complaint on the incident.

One of the policemen (name withheld) said many of the youths had earlier bought knives from knife hawkers that came to the prayer ground, adding that he and his colleagues were powerless to arrest the youths because they were armed and dangerous.

that picture is Tangshan seaport and not ontisha, picture was gotten from wikipedia, check it here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tangshan-Seaport.jpg

It is quite ironic that Aikhomu died a aday after IBB's 70th birthday. All the stolen wealth could not save him. i hope this looser learns a lesson from this.

Okonjo Iweala's name is missing

Okonjo Iweala's name is missing

Okonjo Iweala's name is missing

Okonjo Iweala's name is missing

satani22:
nice thing but cost not up to N300million it is exaggerated

Its not the buidling alone that is valued at N300m, i assume the medical contents are included in the cost. MRI machines alone costs between $1m and $3m

a government is as strong as its weakest link. Anyim is fat, clumsy and slow. the SGF office is very demanding and should be occupied by an able bodied person.

lastpage:
@lagbaja.
How would you or why wont you factor-in the fact that a building appreciates in value, annually and lasts an average of 50yrs. If we do the maths of #500,000 x 4flats, x 50yrs = #100,000,000:00.
Do you still think the Landlord is making a loss or thy just want to recoup all their investments in the shortest possible time (like 5yrs!)?

Cheers.

The argument that a building appreciates is true, but not in Nigeria. Inflation rate is as high as 11% year-on-year, and the rate of rent increases is lower than inflation rate. So the landlord is not benefitting from the appreciation on his asset. it is also not possible for a landlord to recoup his investment in 5 years, not even in 20 years because the typical Return on invest is as low as 3%. A landlord is an investor, he is not providing a humanitarina service. he could choose to invest his money in other forms.

The law is draconian and cannot stand the test of time. Dont be shocked when rent rates goes as high as 100% of what is currently being charged, this is because the landlords have to cover their recurrent and investment costs in good time.

A typical 4 units of 3 bedroom flat costs about N20m to build, this is not inclusive of the cost of Land. The cost of land varies from location to location. No bank is willing to give any long term Mortgage facility. If the Landlord used short term funds to finance the building at a conservative rate of 20% per annum, he will be paying an annual loan financing of N4m. Assume he calculates a return on investment at 5%. That is an additional N1m. This means that each tenants in the 4 flats must pay a minimum of N1.25m per annum to the landlord to cover his cost and make a meager profit of N1m. Dont also forget that inflation rate is double digit. Yet rent are not increased annually at the inflation rate.

Most Landlord tries to cover this cost by asking for a 2 year rent (still running at a loss). If they have to collect only 1 year rent in advance, it then means that they must increase the rent rates by as much as 100% or more to cover their recurrent costs and still make profit.

Most landlords are making losses on their investments because most still charge as low as N500k per annum or less on 3 bedroom flats. Compare rent rates internationally, then you will know that Nigeria still pays one of the lowest. So, dont blame Landlords for charging 2 years upfront. Blame the government

PDC is an unknown party, but is listed just before PDP in the ballot papers. A lot people made mistakes of casting their votes for PDC when they actually intended voting PDP. this is why PDC results are higher than most other unknown parties. Statiscally, PDC votes as a percentage of PDP votes should be similar across the country. This should be very informative of the credibilty of results posted across the country. while this figure is about 0.57% in lagos, it is as low as 0.1% in anambra and some south-east and south-south states. You can draw your inferences from this analysis