₦airaland Forum

any real deals on iphone 5s or se........... as per about dated pls post real deal

18+ months of averaging down and I just kissed breakeven point in my journey @ Wapco..... In retrospect this was a stock begging people @ #10 earlier this year......... I still have a holding period of another 24 months....... I feel this year being an election year did not favor heavy weight producers..............Lots of bonds are being entered into by this govt and majority of this cash will go into infrastructure......ccecc is giving Julius Berger(heavily here too) big head ache but both have cement producer as customers........Also majority of normal construction works were paused to see the outcome of the elections........also great timing for wapco to use in clearing their books



My target is #44 after all some investors majorly foreign bought at this price




Any news on the progress of the new plant construction @ Ashaka........


This steady but subtle increase in price of wapco get as e be o........

Coolcash1:
Business is harsh at the moment for Total. It is the lubricant section of the business that is doing well in terms of profitability.

The group chairman has hinted about massive job loss should the poor performance of the downstream business continue to end of the year.

We are watching.

2 years ago #100 for total that pays #12 div consitently is a bargain..........Im really constrained by free cash, this is a stock to buy and wait for pdp to come back to power...Buhari adminstration does not favor fuel marketers

currentprice:
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the Guinness will soon get to hot cake price. only little patient needed more

I have sights here too.....When it gets to comfort zone please alert the forum o!!!!.......

With international breweries about to raise funds and dilute equity........@ what price should I be waiting for it..... I'm ready to monitor it for the next 3 years......,Guinness already doing all time low in the last 15 years and I'm still waiting for it @ sub 10#

Coolcash1:
Please what's driving UACN price up....

@currentprice
@agba
@OGG

One thing in this market is dat you only know when money bags have finished making money in retrospect.......... Check out any massive move its only months after u now hear the news......... That's y I pay attention to TA for some unusual moves


Ccnn
Access
Diamond
FO
Dangote flour



..........are examples that come to mind

Me feeling like a bargain hunter as I scroll prices

DeRuggedProf:
I prefer to be a herder than a hunter.....

Good thing about nature is that it accommodates all feeding strategies....

onegentleguy:
...but then, there are also positives.

Higher earnings accrual for coys in the consumer goods sector.

UACN and FLOURMILL-
• Prices of consumer produce(eg vegetable oil) has been pushing up with pace.
• Better CF management from a decreased rate environment and relative fx stability.

Added benefits;
• Laverage boost from delaveraging efforts with a few of its subsidiaries(proposed unbundling in view) plus business repositioning drives for UACN.
• Relatively decelerating price of wheat in the Intl market QoQ with Q3 in view(nearer to its yr low than high), higher sugar price(main boost to revenue in Q1) plus management efforts to better funding alliance(reduced funding mis-match in view) for FLOURMILLS.

OKOMU OIL and PRESCO-
• Benefits from border closure to curb the recent spate of lower vols, and ensure that a relatively fixed price accommodates accelerated revenues.
• Relatively increased CPO price in the intl market(currently approx 2.4% shy of its 52-weeks high).
• Better funding match @ lower rates(interest expense reduction in view) following a recent N10B FG Agric credit loan. ...with the 1st trench already dispersed. ..plus ongoing expansion work aimed at increasing revenue and earnings base for OKOMU OIL.
• Higher expected vols given that Sakponba plantation will come on board this yr, plus better fx stability and cost optimization for PRESCO.
• Strong liquidity stance(FCF), particularly with OKOMU OIL.

There are also a few demerits though...
Higher likely capex spend and the small worry of a possible deterioration/loss in biological asset for OKOMU and PRESCO. ...particularly the latter.

...and tighter margins from inflationary pressures plus tougher competitive terrain on lower price points for UACN and FLOURMILLS.

However, I think that the pros far outweigh the cons(risk-return in view), especially for the 1st 2 coys highlighted.

Verdict: Now is that time to take positions in these coys in line with ones investment horizon. ...I particularly love UACN and FLOURMILLS.

As for OKOMU and PRESCO, I will consider marrying the former @ a near 30% discount from current price, and make the second my concubine @ less 18% to present mkt price(trading portfolio in view) if both were women.

CAVEAT: NOT to be infered to as any sought of recommendation.
My advice: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

Okomu and presco off my radar........Im hoping to buy penny stocks that has the potential to build earnings that will take them to this price......

ON the issue of Rice.......its really an emotional matter every Nigerian eats rice every day and the big wigs all want in on the action but the crux of the matter is that neigbouring countries charge little or tax for rice importation but marginal tax for exportation through the land borders and the bulk of this gets dumped in Nigeria.......Most of Buhari policy is seriously hurting their economy hence recent frienship visits we have been seeing recently


I pray the issue of rice does not go the way of frozen chicken as no major corporation has found a way to produce it cheaply hence importation


ON a side note a coy like OLAM has to be forced to list.....Dat coy is minting money from Nigerias daily needs

Coolcash1:
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Monkey hunter sighted...

Not hunting o... Im just running commentary on my portfolio especially when im on the roads and see the kind of business activities that use the major highways i ply

The border closure has really affected pet marketing stocks to the extent that big names in Nigeria are saying it has corrected the disparity amounts of fuel consumed in Nigeria........This wil affect principally MRS....

In my own opinion, MRS is one of the entity used benin and cameroun to move in fuels into their country as key board members in mrs are from this two countries

FO......... with their mad eps of #8 plus.........its the only consolement i have of this stock.....I have a feeling they can drag it in terms of div payment with 11plc(mobil) and total as they have nearly the same strategy..... since nipco bought mobil @ least they have paid more than #6 dividend from eps even with all dooms day prediction.......I have a feeling this will trickle down to FO too........ As FO is now focused on sales of only petroleum product

maishai:
something is happening @ wapco........ the stock is moving as gradually to its $3 valuation......... cement sales this year has been poor actually due to new competition from bua(kalambila sokoto cement)...........

I believe this is a stock waiting for a pronouncement from the federal govt like the exec7 to build some roads.....or something like cement subsidy

also border closure is not helping matters as many trucks are stalled at the border due to fed govt order.....this is not helping sales @ ewekoro........l

something is happening @ wapco........ the stock is moving as gradually to its $3 valuation......... cement sales this year has been poor actually due to new competition from bua(kalambila sokoto cement)...........

I believe this is a stock waiting for a pronouncement from the federal govt like the exec7 to build some roads.....or something like cement subsidy

@ FXUSER................................ my sights are now on brewery stocks for the medium term.......how low can guiness and int brew go in the mid term especially guiness, it is seriously digging for oil

Welcome back...........I'm ur biggest fan on this thread......please roll it out

Godlylifeoneart:
You do not need a fundamental or technical analyst to tell you dt oando is not a sustainable business with Wale and Boyo @ the helms. The last pre forensic audit report was damning against the management of the company. Any result being released by oando in terms of profitability and Discounted cash flow might not be the true picture. Oando as a company is swimming in 4 quadrant debts.
However, with the political connection of Wale and Oando, they might get two to three major contracts from the FGN.
Already, they have been awarded a gas pipeline contract the detail of which is not too clear in terms of execution and implementation.
Promising.... Yes the company is promising, for instance, A major oil and gas discovery was recently made in one of oando (20%)joint venture with NNPC(60%) NAOC(20%) OML61.
The company also won CRUDE FOR FUEL SWAP CONTRACT FROM THE NNPC.
Putting all this together
A patient investor with good risk appetite, and ready to tie money down can go ahead and mop OANDO @..@$0.01/Share. Or N3. 8
The irony of it, most people in government are busy mopping up OANDO shares on daily basis.
I am of the view that Wale is trying to prove public opinions wrong by systematically return Oando to profitability. How he is going to do it is what no one can say due to the wrought on the ground.

Profitability. 2019e 2020e
Operating Margin (EBIT / Sales)6,89% 8,21%
Operating Leverage (Delta EBIT / Delta Sales)-8,46x
Net Margin (Net Profit / Revenue) 0 0
ROE (Net Profit / Equities) 7,00% 6,00%
CONCLUSION.... A POTENTIAL DEBT THAT MIGHT TURN TO ASSET. ONLY FOR RISK TAKER.

On paper oando should be dragging with dangote cement as they have more than a trillion naira of real assets compared to banks whose assets are borrowed money but..................




In retrospect it is news like d Saudi bombing that can cause u to reap 100% from oando in 3 weeks......I'm loaded here and waiting for the right time to jump off.....





I'm so loading Seplat tomorrow......In wait if men in black

currentprice:
for those still waiting for ^{"Atiku commin"} abi na mkt comming, dont let all opportunity pass u. there is still this stock that is best for now at currentprice. attack it now before she move

Sir........parables are not my thing....leave it for pastors......tell me please

Mcy56:
Where were you when Oga Oracle and Prof taught us about not selling all dividend paying stocks once you have your name in the Registrar's book?
You've seen result of not reading your notes or missing class bah.
Anyway, you are NOT supposed to SELL ALL to keep your name constantly in the Registrar's book. You should have leave 10 units or so. One of the vital notes I can't forget.......and it's working for me now.

Na part of my school fees be dat

the worst part of it is that if i had sold or sell all of my unit now.....all my data will just disappear and my money goes into thin air.........I have had that experience when dangote sugar declared 60k...I qualified and sold the said stock 4 months later but my edividend had not been fully processed when i sold all unit, na so dat money fante comot my hand, only major capital appreciation that consoled me

OBAGADAFFI:
Yes it is N1.20k paid on 6th September 2019.

yet to receive my own o..........anybody dealt with atlas registrar.......I dont want to got here in person

Ova CP, @ what price will u start touching Dang Sugar......Or do I gently wait for November and start buying by then

emmanuelewumi:
Onasanya did not work alone, FBN started having issues when the current chairman took over.
I am surprised at the level of damage done by Onasanya (who is a pastor in one of the biggest Pentecostal churches in Nigeria) together with his cohort did to FBN.

A company Atlantic Energy got as much as $250 million loan which went bad, unfortunately when an average small business needs a loan of N10 million from FBN there is a very high probability that the loan with not be approved...


FBN refused to embark on an aggressive debt recovery drive, because most of the loans that went bad are insiders related. The loans were not intended to be paid back when they were granted.

FBN had a very bad deal under Onasanya. Even in 2000 when FBN lost over $100 in the Investors international limited deal during the failed privatization of NITEL things were not as bad as this. That was in an era when Zenith Bank, GTB cannot single handedly finance a $100 million deal. The shareholders funds of Zenith Bank and GTB was not even up to that.

This shows that it is not now that FBN have been gambling with depositors and shareholders funds.


The worst part is that the bank did not sell the so called toxic loans to AMCON, since the bank is so lacadicical concerning the recovery of the loans.


FBN does not have core investors as we have in Zenith Bank, Access Bank, GTB, therefore no one to caution the reckless behaviour of the banks management.

The CEO of Access Bank has substantial holdings in the bank, therefore he will go after the banks debtors. Unlike FBN that is more or less like government property, everyone is talking his or her own share of the national cake.

No bank in Nigeria can survive what happened to FBN in the last 5 to 6 years. The have written off hundreds of billions of naira in the last 3 years and their is no light at the end of the tunnel, who does that?

Tomorrow somebody will tell having key man in a business in Nigeria is a disadvantage ........ O boy just run a common store and put an Afar to run d store and u will see Enron film trick right b4 ur eyes

Fbnh is gradually coming home to my #3 region..........One thing I know about fbnh in this market is that it can make you rich fast in the bull season....Thing is to buy as low as you can......I will start accumulating @ sub #4 ......I dont care if it goes as low as 0.20k, I will not sell ....in wait of the bull.......This is one stock that can go from #3 to #15 in the space of 3 months............make your cash and Bleep off.
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Till the bull ......Endurance will be your Name

Valueinvestor:
Oga haba e don do na,so person cannot come and invest his/her retirement benefit in FO in peace

How do we expect the ceo of ignite investment to feel what he bought for #66 is now going for #15 in less than 6 months........ The depreciation is just too fast.......I don't know much about modern accounting and valuation but There must be a reason he coughed out raw cash to otedola for this................ On a side note I'm still trying to understand how otedola once made it to Forbes list when one nameless Nigerian just coughed out his asking price........means there are so many silent billionaires lurking out there

emmanuelewumi:
People take loans to pay their children's school fees, house rent, buy cars, houses, start businesses, go on vacation etc

I see no reason why anyone with the cashflow can't take loans to buy shares at this point in time.. Although it will wrong for one to take such loans, hoping to use capital appreciation of such stocks to liquidate the loan.

Not doubting you sir, but d average employee in our current Nigeria now is already servicing Hugh loans,and going by the nature of this market the stock u see juicy today can become juicier tomorrow and by my own simple calculation using a lump sum to purchase any stock now or using the cash flows one is meant to payback to the bank monthly to purchase the same stock will lead to nearly the same outcome just a marginal offset most probably by 15% in the amount of unit obtained............ The only gain therein will be in capital appreciation which is even more unlikely......I played that game previously in Wema.........Though it worked out for me , I don't plan to try it again

DeRuggedProf:
He mistakenly entered a heavy Ichimoku cloud and his personal Ichimoku pilot lost contact with the control tower.
Investigations are still ongoing.
Buhari ordered THE NAVY to search all clouds and produce him this month....

Now I know he will never be found

onegentleguy:
I have received several mails in the last 2 days asking for my take on the recent proposed MTO to the current shareholders of FO by Ignite Inv & Commodities Ltd.

This analysis is intended to highlight the key area of FOCUS with regards to the said offer.

A brief;

Company- Forte Oil(FO)
Current OS- 1,310,629,1267
Current shareholding structure:
Ignite Inv- 970,166, 694(equ 74.02%)
Other stakeholders- 340,462,573(equ 25.98%)

MTO proposal; "that Ignite inv & commodities Ltd offers to take up a total of 500,000 units of FO from willing existing shareholders @ a per equity price of N66.25, and increase its stake from the current 74.02% to 74.04%... a 0.02% vol differential.

1st off, here are a few points to note:

1) The MTO has been authorised and registered by the CMOs including the SEC.

2) Only demateralized(electronic format) shares of FO held via a stockbroker are acceptable.

3) The notice did NOT state a QUALIFICATION DATE.
The implication of this is that until the deal is consumeted(assuming a person does not exercise their right to withdrawal) every current or prospective shareholder of FO is ELIGIBLE to partake of it !!
NOTE that consummation in this case means post deposition(of shares) and until 10 working days after then.

4) Interested applicants must fill out an acceptance form duly stamped and signed by their respective brokers, and attach their most recent CSCS statement of A/C, before sending same to the registrar(VERITAS)

5) The offer price is exempt of CGT(capital gain tax)
...so by inference, the MTO of N66.25 is net of WHT. It is non-taxable !!

6) Ignite Inv reserves the sole right to possibly extend the offer period if it becomes necessary.

7) Ignite Inv shall offer to buy out only 500,000 units of FO @ N66.25 and pay out a total cash consideration of N33,125,000 to the various bank A/C of willing shareholders who deposited their stakes with the registrar(via their broker) before the closure time and whose acceptance forms were duly consummated.

8] In the event of an over-subscription, Ignite inv shall imploy a simple mathematical method of scaling back(such excesses) using the company's(FO) OS net of its original holding as a benchmark.

To illustrate;

Assuming a shareholder owns 20,000 unit of FO, and decides to tender all of it in exchange for the offer value of N66.25.
The offer shall either be fully or partly consummated.
Now assuming that only 15,000 was accepted(following full subscription), then;
Using the company's total OS net of Ignite Inv stake, the excess shall be scaled back to determine what PROPORTION/vol(in units) Ingite inv would further dim fit to take up.
Mathematically, the portion to take up from the excess(5,000 unit in this case) shall be computed as follows;
Total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by the said shareholder/total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by ALL eligible shareholders X actual vol of MTO.
= 5,000/ 340,462,573 X 500,000
Which is approx 7 unit.

Note that the total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by ALL eligible shareholders is assumed to be the total stake of FO held by others aside Ignite. The simple reason is because it makes common sense to believe that everyone(or at least 90% of current holders) will most likely apply for the MTO given the huge premium from the coys current mkt price.

The interpretation of the estimate above is that in the event of an over-subscription, an excess of 5,000 'un-alloted' unit will likely see Ignite Inv take up only 7 unit therein, Ceteris paribus.
So for every 1 excess unit(post full subscription), Ignite shall only probably take up an additional 7/5,000 or 0.0014 unit after all due consideration.


My analytical take:

Looking @ FO Oils H1 2019 financial print, the coy saw an outstanding improvement accross all KEY revenue and earnings line.
Amongst the drivers, were positive margins that cut accross the coys top line, bottom line and cashflow trend.
To narrow it down, GROSS MARGIN, NET MARGIN, PAT MARGIN, RoIC, ROAA, ROAE, EPS and EM all showed a fine improvement. ...with the latter 2 showing a remarkable double digit growth.
Like i've stated in the past, one of the things that impresses me about FO is the lower risk now associated with what used to be a 'earnings devourer'(NCI).
...meaning that the core of distributable earnings can now get to those who truly deserve it(shareholders)
Again the coys RoIC, ENTERPRISE VALUE, RE, CASH POSITION, AsY and AsQ describes a stock with a grossly underpriced stance.
Using a DDM approach(@ an assumed 0% growth to YE) and adjusting for risk, I have a FVE of N43.7 !!

Maybe, just maybe that's why the folks @ Ignite could afford to offer an MTO to existing shareholders @ N66.25.
...a cash consideration which is an over 300% potential ROI from the present mkt price of N16.45 !!

I am however curious on why the current mkt price still pegs 'a far cry'(MoS gap) from the coys present financial state.
That said, one thing is indisputable: With or WITHOUT the proposed MTO, buying FO now can ONLY mean buying into VALUE !!

My advice: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

This could also be a ploy to halt the free fall of fo.....

Godlylifeoneart:
IS IT WORTH GETTING A LOAN TO INVEST IN EQUITY?

RECENTLY THE MASS MEDIA HAS BEEN FLOODED WITH OFFER OF LOANS BY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
A FRIEND WAS CAUGHT BY GT BANK ADVERT OF NON COLLATERISED LOAN OF N5 MILLION.HE IS DETERMINED TO GET THE LOAN WITH UTMOST AIM OF INVESTING IT IN EQUITIES.
I HOPE THE HOUSE CAN SCRUTINIZE THIS MOVE AND POSSIBLY GIVE OUR DIVERGENT VIEWS,
We should consider the fact that investing is a marathon and not a sprint which is the order in Trading.

His view, if he can afford the monthly repayments, is it worthy taking out a personal loan of N5, 000,000 to invest in EQUITIES, NOW THAT THE INDEX IS DEPRESSED. His thinking is that the big lump sum investment will allow compounding to work its magic all the faster when the bull returns. – more so than (much) smaller monthly INVESTMENT over time.

My view , a preferable strategy would be to invest a monthly amount into a diversified portfolio.
Judging from unpredictability of NSE and other global bourses during this Donald Trump Era. Precisely, no one has a crystal ball to tell us what the market will do next week
Obtaining loan with no collateral at 17% to 21% interest rate is not advisable judging from the bourse that has returned - 12% YTD at the close of market on 30th August 2019.
The TB and return on bond hover @ 13.5% to 15%.
MMF is lesser. This is excluding inflation rates gazetted by the FGN @11 to 12%.in order word, The absolute yield on TB - inflation is 3 to 4%.
The cost of borrowing money in the form of a personal loan is likely to be higher than the long-term returns one can expect to achieve from investment markets.

Expected returns from the NSE are approximately +/5%, @inflation plus11%. Therefore, with inflation currently at 11%, we can expect the market to provide a total return of around 5% per year over the long term.This is the best case scenario. Just my permutations.

As interest rates on personal loans generally start at 17% per year, it does not make sense to borrow money in order to invest.

Rather than borrowing a lump sum to invest in the markets and servicing debt on a monthly basis, a preferable solution would be to invest a monthly amount into a diversified portfolio with mix of fundamentally sound and dividends paying equities,
TB, Bonds and Forex edging. Coz no one can predict the direction of Nigeria economy due to government of personal interest, poor regulatory activity of listed companies, executives exorbearance, executives attitude of CEOs (winner) take all. Cooking of audited results to reflect CEO interests and wishes. Exaggerated cost of running businesses, pandemic corruption in listed companies.This made investing in Nigeria bourse a high risk.
While your financial position may be similar in the long run, your risks will be greatly reduced as you will be investing in the markets on a monthly basis as opposed to investing everything on a particular day.

Given the poor market returns and volatility experienced over the past few years, I would caution against trying to time the markets with a single lump sum investment from borrowed money.
If you are borrowing money at a much higher cost than investment returns have achieved, you will effectively create a situation where compounding is working against you.
THANKS, YOUR SCRUTINY IS WELCOME.

You said it all.......There is no hurry in life, the fact that you can service a debt of #5 million in 2 years, means you can acquire the same stock in 2 years.......and after 2 years,you even come out with extra descipline...........I only advise loans if life or a loved one is @ stake.....A loan on your monthly salary is like eating into your guaranty for a flimsy promise in the future........I have never loved the looks on those that take out loans........I dont need a gypsy to tell me that they endure sleepless nights

PETERiCHY:
They CLAIMED to purchased 75% stake at a whopping N66 per share from Ote$ where as in another newspaper publication they were pleading with their shellholders not to sell at subN20.

Last wk they saw their yeye stock was trading at N14 jejely heading to it N6 fairvalue the same set of crooks had emergency meeting and QUICKLY came up with another story of purchasing at N62 and some gullibles are jumping up

Most Nigerian CEO's are nothing but CROOKS,
I only WEEP for uninformed investors

I would really loved you go for the forthcoming agm....... I would love the perspective of an affamed critic at the agn

Forte oil AGM holds on 03/09/2019......few days from now.......problem is I'm so far away from Lagos.........any body who goes should please furnish us with gossip gathered @ the meeting