₦airaland Forum

The man of God prayed for Israel and prayed for peace. Where did he say annihilation of Hamas there. Please let's be guided. It's written in English!!

A man from possibly the single largest ethnic group is President and you think you can just silence him out of that post? There are many issues surrounding a man who becomes the president of this country and all these noise are just about economic denial, a relationship gone sour. None of the candidates challenging the outcome of the last election seems confident to say they won and defend it at the court.
If CSU had written under oath that Bola Tinubu attended the school then he did attend and nothing new. The school will be guided by US Privacy law and may reissue a certificate to Atiku's team.
All of these drama will be over and another one will start. My focus is getting Nigeria to work, improve the economy and let there be more opportunities and when we achieve stability a little, rebase the naira to eliminate one or two zeros. If govt can get Porthacourt refinery to work and Dangote refinery to work then we will get somewhere.

Yes igbo move and trade all over the North but to say they are more than the Yoruba is doubtful.
A town of Funtua in Katsina state was said to have been started by Kolanut trading Yoruba traders. I don't think there is any state in the north that Igbos can be more than Yoruba.
There are 19 Northern states. Kogi and Kwara are out because Yoruba are indigenous to those two states. ANiger is out because the Tapa and Yoruba are kinsmen and Yoruba have settled there for a long time leaving us with 16 states in contest.
I recalled when crisis happened in Jo's and people jumped into the conclusion that Igbos would have the highest loss but alas when the report came out, it was the Yoruba.
Many will be shocked if the actual census with all bio data is allowed to hold. Two things am sure may show are:
That Nigeria has more Christians than Muslims
That Yoruba would probably be the largest single ethnic group in Nigeria if the Fulani ethnic group is classified differently.

Beside your political wishful thinking let's get real to the Niger issue.
The orchestration of Niger could could have been orchestrated by US or Russia. America sell more gas to Europe . The chance of Russia being behind it is the same with US.
France and EU may have wanted ECOWAS intervention more , to have that happen is not in the best interest of Nigeria.

Jesus never fail. The people that serve hlHim can fail when their focus shift to money and materials. When people only see material blessings as testimonies, even those who are not Christians can make money.

The Soros are here, I know they have their eyes on Nigeria, they are going to spend billions of dollars to promote their satanic agenda.

Africans are people governed by culture and belief system. Those also guide our morality and ways

To the OP, we don't legislate it, they will face the wrath of the people.

Ameendment 13 is the real deal

Amendment 13 is the real deal

Why can't he be. He can be president. That he didn't win now doesn't foreclose a future opportunity. Please let's stop these assumptions. His platform if we'll oiled can be a springboard for many.

its just a mirage. He did not have the spread. The first is to isolate where you will dispute and present evidences. This is a case that will last over 6months. After such isolations, the court will probably look at your values in relation to the result, I do not see that changing significantly or affect the outcome of the election such that Obi can be declared as the winner.
If however he approach the court on the electoral process will be challenging the power of INEC which is good but I don't think the law will be in his favor.
There could also be counter litigations to examine his strongholds as well. For him to have won, he needed to win 25% in the entre 17 states of the South and 7 states in the North. There are 6 states in the North Central meaning the north was his albatross.

I want a free and fair election, but in this case I do not see how PO can be declared as winner.

Please explain what the section quoted mean in clear terms without ambiguity and the powers of INEC to conduct and announce elections. Please let us not fill the whole world with unproven biases, let us have a clear understanding of that breach and how it invalidate the Electoral Act

Those are not Ekiti people. That is not the dialect or tonal sounds.

FatherOfJesus:
See, I work with data.
I am also realistic.

I'm not saying that he will definitely win, but it's a 50/50 scenario according to what data suggests. Even if Tinubu wins, the margin will be extremely slim.

This election is going to be the freest and fairest in the history of Nigeria

Based on your data you already made a wrong assumption. That Yoruba Christians won't vote Tinubu is a huge error. Let me advise you, just assume Yoruba votes don't split on religious basis.

hotwax:
The elders in RCCG ..people above 70 are still with tinubu...but they won't vote...

I live in RCCG camp, the youth in the camp are Obidents...fanatically obidient, although their aging parents are tinubu...

these old people are growing senile...they put nigeria in this mess, they still have not repented...its left for the youth to mold their future

You don't live in the RCCG Camp. I beleive a child of God from a good home would manage a better communication.
Election is a matter of choice and bringing tribalism to the church because of election is another level of youths that have become vocal for the wrong reasons.
When GEJ contested, Christians and Muslims voted him, Christians voted for Buhari and there is no reason why people across religions and churches can't vote candidates of their choice
Sunak in UK is a Hindu, he was voted in by Christian and non Christian MPs.
Let me just tell you a secret, your attacks on pastor's e.g. Poju Oyemade, Adefarasin etc and now the church will keep your kinsman from the Seat of power for many years.

To excel you build bridges, today's youths and Internet warriors must understand this virtue.

The pollster is funny. People shoukd take their job with ethics and professionalism. All of these tell stories.

The poll said Ethnicity and religion will determine most voters' decisions. Other factors are expected to be the state of the economy, party loyalty, financial inducement, other candidates contesting for other offices same day or gubernatorial,, love for the candidates.Other s are voters turn out, performance of INEC personnel.
It is not exclusively ethnicity and religion.

That said, it may mean Atiku winning majority in the NW & NE ( like AA = 50%, BAT = 30%, RMK =15%, PO =5%) . That's 12 states

That may mean Peter Obi winning SE (like PO = 70%, AA = 20% , BAT 8% ) That's 5 states

That may mean Tinubu winning majority in SW ( like BAT =70%, PO = 15%, AA = 12%, RMK = 3%)

The battle grounds are NC and SS Regions.

State by state analysis, NC
Niger state : APC = 40%, PDP = 35% , LP= 20%, RMK = 5%)
Kwara: APC = 60% PDP = 28% LP= 8%, NNPP = 4%)
Kogi : APC =53%, PDP = 32%, LP = 12%, NNPP = 3%)

*Benue: PDP = 30%, APC = 35%, LP= 33%, others 2%

*Taraba : PDP = 30%, APC = 36%, LP 28% others 6%

Nasarawa : APC = 38%, PDP= 34%, LP = 26% NNPP =2%

*Plateau : APC = 32%, PDP = 30% LP = 30% NNPP=8%

Asterisks: watch out for local politics, that will play huge roles in these states. APC may perform better in them as these are Conservative estimates especially Benue and Taraba.

SS
Delta: Okowa and Obi are popular so if we assume
PDP 40% , LP 30%, APC 30% ( a reflection of Delta North, Central & South ethnic voting pattern and loyalty)

Bayelsa: PDP = 40% APC = 30% , LP= 30%( impact of other candidates contesting for other positions, party loyalty and love for candidates )

Rivers : LP = 39% APC = 38% , PDP= 22%( financial inducement, party battles, party loyalty)

Akwa Ibom: PDP = 45%, LP = 30%, APC = 22%( watch out for senatorial contests, huge influence here)

Cross Rivers : PDP = 30%, APC = 35% , LP= 35%( party loyalty, other candidates and the people)

Edo: PDP= 33% LP= 36% APC = 30% others =1%

To states of Benue and Taraba may spring surprise which may tend toward APC and LP. I learnt the political class in Taraba favors BAT, they don't want another ethnic northerner. The Benue is a battle among the political class and of course money and the people.

Rufai is officially anti people and anti constitutional democracy. This is a constitutional crises:
1. The president has the right to change currency
2. The CBN has the right to institute monetary policy
3. The governors has the right to approach supreme court to sue the FGN on account of the suffering of their people
4, The supreme court assumed the right to rule in judgement
5. The supreme court ordered that every party involved should allow normalcy go on while it decide on the case on 22nd Feb
6. The president shoved the interim order aside and cancelled the values of the 500 and 1,000 naira

What should have happened?

1. I believe to repose confidence in our judiciary the president should have held off till 22nd Feb
2. Policies are not just about politicians but the majority of Nigerians are suffering

Rufai is not seeing the big picture. All these analysis are online and will work against you in future I believe. To have a country that work, all must obey laws including traffic laws.
We must build a society governed by law and order and democracy is not governed by decrees.
God bless Nigeria

The assurance to the ordinary northerners by the governors that the naira swap will be reversed will earn APC 40-50% of votes in the NW and NE.
Believing that there will be a complete turn around to favor PDP or LP is not certain.
The battle ground is North to include NC. If the people hear that their old notes will still be valuable if they vote APC people will respond.

wegevv:
Thank you for your contribution kind sir

But the polls show he has a good chance in Ondo, Ogun and Ekiti. That’s what I’m interested in rather than your opinion. Thanks again <3

Don't be interested in my opinion. If you are from those states you would know the voting population across those regions favor their home boys- simple. I said, so that in the end it doesn't look like elections were rigged, LP cannot gather 25% in the Southwest outside of Lagos. Whatever is it that will make PO deny AA and BAT 25% in the SE is what will also work for the other two candidates in their regions.

wegevv:
Obi must love his chances of getting 25% in each of these states. He will likely win at least 2 of them (Benue and Plateau) and could even win more depending on how the other candidates split the vote in some of the other states. The problem is the odds drop when you accumulate them. Can he hit 25% in all of them at the same time?

With 17 states in the south that should be the magic number 24 and this excludes places like Gombe where he might have a long shot.

But can he also get 25% in all 6 states in the southwest too? From everything I’ve seen that looks unlikely but something I’ve learnt from 538 projection of US elections is that results rarely stand alone. If Obi performs so well that he hits 25% in all 7 of these northern states then he is likely to be over performing expectations all over the country and that could spill over to the southwest too

Will be interesting to watch. Very nice post btw. Thank you <3

Obi cannot get 25% outside of Lagos in the Southwest. This is necessary for the sanity of those pushing the narratives. What will make PO winner of the majority votes in the SE is what will help AA in the North and BAT in the SW.

cicero:
All the permutations you people made months ago about Peter Obi and the LP have been rubbished. A couple of weeks into the election, PO is not just in the race but has become a major contender.

Anything can happen.

Anything don't just happen in election. You need data trends and match that with scenarios as across different expectations. None of that favors a 25% across 24 States for Lwbour Party.
Key factors in estimation:
1. Party membership- assuming at least 50% will vote their parties
2. Popularity of candidates across each state
3. Popularity of other candidates I.e. Senate, HOR candidates, Gubernatorial candidates etc
4. Political leaning of sitting state and local officers( this will influence at least 20% across all regions)
5. Ethnicity- yes, ethnicity should have at least 40% influence on voters
6. Religion- This should affect at least 20% to 30% of voters
7. Economic impacts- This shoukd be responsible for at least 10-20% of votes in some urban areas
8. Money- Spenders will still influence voting direction of over 25% of total voters across all regions. This will favor APC and PDP
Now you need to permutate these into order of important across regions and age groups.

A. The SW - religion score low, economy and ethnicity score high, candidate Popularity is important. Its generally a swing region. APC shoukd win over 70% overall.

B.The SE - Economy score highest, ethnicity and Party loyalty. Its expected that LP will sweep this region and deny PDP its certain 25% required. LP shoukd win overall

C. The SS- Party loyalty is a huge factor and candidates popukarities are key. Ethnic affiliation is diverse. Votes will be divided across Party line( pls mark this)

D. The NC - multiethnic region. All of these factors will play key roles. A place like Benue for instance will be a battle ground across APC, LP and PDP( in that order) while Taraba is between PDP and APC( in that order)
The assumption that Christian areas will vote a particular candidate is a pipe dream. In fact religion plays little role in some key regions like SW.

E. The NE - The Kanuri folks will largely vote APC that is ethnic affiliation will matter while its a straight battle between APC and PDP. LP will get some votes from some minorities on religion ground but may not exceed 15% at best due to other factors such as Party affiliation and strenght of candidates.

F. The NW - Religion, ethnicity, Party affiliation and money will all play key roles. I expect Atiku to win this region overall but with not more than 20% difference with Tinubu. Just like the SW, the NW will vote their homeboy while NNPP will make slight impacts in some areas.

When you look at these factors, you would stop projecting based on wishes. Our economic realities are different so are our levels of socio cultural affiliations.

Thanks for your analysis. You under estimated APC performance in Southwest and in Southsouth. APC won't win less than 70% in states outside of Lagos and at least 55% in Lagos. This is the worst case scenario.
I expect APC to have 25% across SS states and score above 30% in Edo, Bayelsa, Cross River. Believe me, APC may even score highest votes in Bayelsa if it reproduce its %age performance of 2019. Delta is another state because the same Delta areas have Obi and Okowa as popular candidates and, Delta South will crown the winner. APC may come second there. Rivers depends on Wike and his followers.
APC will perform better than your projections across the North. Apart from Sokoto NWand NE will return 30% and above to APC send LP may not win above 10% across NW and NE. The key obstacle to LP will be its inability to score 25% in 24states ,(please mark this)
So technically it's between APC and PDP they are capable of getting 24% across 24states and FCT.
If thr LP momentum can be sustained, its on a standby whenever Kwankwaso and Tambuwal are scheming to come in in next dispensation.

The election is here, don't want to say too much. Expectations as APC loses some goodwill as a result of ongoing crises. Worst case scenarios:

My opinion is that Peter Obi can win at least 25% in:

1. Five Southeast states
2. Six south south states

Total = 11 states

Most probably in :
3. Kaduna state
4. Plateau
5. Benue
6. Lagos

Total = 15

He will do well but not up to 25% in other southwest states scoring between 5% - 20% .

I think the strategy by the APC is to ensure Igbos don't vote for Atiku and vote Peter Obi which will most probably deny Atiku the spread he will need if he has a majority votes.
Atiku's hope is his capacity to have 25% votes across all the 19 Northern states. This means he will need just five states in the south to have required winning tally if he has majority votes which he may get in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa- Ibom and Cross River
Except the APC is able to prevent Atiku from getting 25% in may be one or two states in the North Central. The possible states those can be are may be Kwara and Yobe and Borno. If Atiku fails to win 25% in any one state in the 19 northern states, his chances of becoming president will become smaller

The chances of Tinubu depends on his percentage performance in Northwest and Northeast. Overall he will need to win at least 45% in the Northeast, 40% in the Northwest, win at the least four states in Northcentral, at least 70% overall in the Southwest and achieve at least 25% across four of the six Southsouth states. Tinubu will probably win Kwara, Niger, Nasarawa and Kogi in Nortcentral. He will most probably win at least 25% in Edo, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Cross River. Wike role will impact both Peter Obi and Tinubu in Rivers.

When you look at these chances, you would know that Prof Soludo position is well thought through. Even if the turn out is 100% in areas where Peter Obi supporters are in large number, the key issue is winning a25% across 24 states and FCT.

Obalacam:
Do you want to tell me your analysis is better than Anap and Bantupage polls that predicted clear victory for Peterk Obi?

Those were opinion polls. Their sampling method may invalidate their predictions which had happened even in the US in recent elections.

Trollronaldo:
Below is the amount of registered voters by regions.
I am going to make this analysis based on 40% voters turnout in every region, it's not certain but it's enough to give us an insight to as to what will happen in February.

Based on 40% voters turnout, here is the figure from each region

1. NW 8,902,224
2. SW 7,183,506
3. NC 6, 145, 492
4. SS 5, 776, 285
5. NE 5,016,971
6. SE 4,363,042


Analysis based on regions based on my predictions are as follows

Northwest
1. Atiku 35% 3,115,778
2. TINUBU 30% 2,670,667
3. Kwankwaso 25% 2,225,556
4. Obi 5% 445,111

SouthWest
1. Tinubu 50% 3,591,753
2. Obi 25% 1,7996,876
3. Atiku 15% 1,077,526
4. Kwankwaso 2% 143,670

Southsouth
1. Obi 45% 2,599,328
2. Atiku 30% 1,732,885
3. Tinubu 20% 1,155,257
4. Kwankwaso 2% 115,525

Northcentral
1. Atiku 30% 1,843,647
2. Obi 30% 1,843,647
3. Tinubu 30% 1,843,647
4. Kwankwaso 10% 614,549

Northeast
Atiku 40% 2,006,788
Tinubu 30% 1,505,091
Kwankwaso 15% 752,545
Obi 10% 501,697

Southeast
Obi 70% 3,054,129
Atiku 15% 654,456
Tinubu 10% 436,304
Kwankwaso 1% 43,630


TOTAL
Tinubu : 11,202, 719
Atiku: 10,431,080
Obi: 10,239,788
Kwankwaso: 3,895,475


I see Tinubu getting the most votes, however, this is not certain. Tinubu will get the most votes but won't get 25% required coverage. Tinubu will go into a rerun with Atiku.
Atiku will beat Tinubu in the rerun by winning SE and SS. However, it's still too close to call, Tinubu and Atiku may lose the momentum to Obi.


Thanks for reading guys

If you increase Tinubu performance to 70% in Southwest and 25% in South South( a Conservative estimate) then the figure if follow this your trajectory can be more realistic.
Another point is that turn out average is what you stated, I do expect turn out to be up to 45%- 52%. Turn out in SS and NC may be lower compared to other regions where there are strong home candidates

JoeNL22:
The Muslim ticket will play a huge role.

The kkk states will be divided by 3 people(Tinubu, Atiku, RMK) instead of 1 person(Buhari).

Obi will cancel many votes from Tinubu in the ss & se with his(obi) sw votes

Atiku will win NE, Tinubu will win NW.

A divided core north can't beat a united SE & SS.

ATIKU OR RMK must step down for Tinubu. If not. Tinubu can't win the elections.

In the SW, the elections is between obi & Tinubu.

In the SE & SS Its between obi & Atiku.

In the NC, Its between obi, Atiku & Tinubu

In the core north ( Tinubu, Atiku, kwankwanso and Obi[Muslim ticket | Christians will definitely do protest votes and ensure they are not marginalised] )

No reruns.

The election in the Southwest is not between Tinubu and Obi. Its Tinubu home turf.
Please don't overrate Obi in the Southwest. You can only expect good performance from him in Lagos which you can't be sure will be up to 25% because Atiku will also receive anti Tinubu votes too especially among Northern communities. I do beleive the Eastern communities will largely vote Obi in Lagos but with all the votes split across major candidates, its not certain Obi can get 20% in Lagos.
Elsewhere in the Southwest will be worse, the farther from Lagos the worse the outcome for Peter Obi because ethnicity will play a key role both in the Southwest and Southeast and religion will play key role in Northwest and Northeast. The Middle Belt and South South are open.
It's erroneous to think religion will play a key role in politics in among Yoruba, it has not and won't.
The entire Christians I the north won't vote Obi as many of them are either loyal to their leaders, political parties and some will be swayed by ethnicity and religion.
I think APC will win about 4 out of 7 states in North Central and Atiku and Obi sharing large numbers in 3.
Please note that when the election is called and if APC wins 5 states in NC and do 30% - 40% in NW and NE. They have won otherwise it will go to a run off because the formular is to deny Atiku 25% across 24 states and so far its still successful. Obi has no winning formula to achieving 25% across 24 states at least for now.

OKOATA:
Yorubas follow ethnic line but they aren't daft. SW is a multi religious domain, Christians 45%, Muslim 40%. If SW doesn't follow religion why's CAN not supporting Tinubu? How many churches in SW have openly come out to support him? No dey give yourself false hope and stop assuming all SW people are dumb. Even Kwara state won't give Tinubu 90%. Ekiti isn't a Muslim state, Lagos isn't a Muslim state, other state in SW isn't a Muslim state so how will Tinubu get those figures you are mentioning. You assume everyone in SW is daft like you urchins ba. Una dey make me laugh. So Christians will leave Obi and vote a M/M killer ticket. Keep dreaming bros.

I don't know how old you are but I do know you need to improve in decorum. Everyone except Obi supporters are urchins, that's incredible.
I said the mistake you are making is believing that Yoruba won't vote Tinubu because he's a Muslim. I said and quote me after the election that Yoruba will vote for Tinubu en masses and he will win the region overwhelmingly.
Who are the hristians in Ekiti are they nit Yoruba, Ekiti is the most pro Yoruba state in South west and Ondo state, Osun, in that order.
Please note that for a candidate to become president, he or she needs 25% across 24states and must win majority. Peter Obi as at today cannot boast of winning 25% in 24 states. That where having candidates across house of representatives and Senate come in.
I just hope Obi followers won't result to violent rioting when their candidates lose in February because they might cite rigging.

OKOATA:
Obi will take a chunk of christians votes, some percentage of reasonable Muslims will vote him too. Tinubu might have 50% total SW votes while Obi will have 40% or even more.

The Yoruba follow ethnic line before religion. There is no basis to begin to see Tinubu as a religious jingoist, he was governor of Lagos and Fashola after him have both been open people. Many of you attach a lot of hope and expectations to certain creeds that do not move the needle politically. You need to understand key factors across geopolitical zones. For the Southwest it is first ethnicity then money. Religion has never been a key campaign issues here so that you don't think someone rigged your candidate out of winning in February.
I believe Tinubu will win at least 70% in Lagos and up to 95% of votes cast in Ekiti and above 80% in other states of the Southwest. Yoruba have one candidate in this election and whether you accept it or not, religion is not even one of the criteria to analyze him.

Estello:
https://businesspost.ng/economy/major-indicators-that-will-shape-nigeria-in-2023/

Thanks for sharing

Obidient4life2:
Trash!

You can save this till February. All the parties need to work to win, its up up there.