₦airaland Forum

Let me spare a little time this morning.
Key factors in elections in Nigeria:
1. Money
2. Ethnicity
3. Religion
These are the core factors that shape voting direction in this country. While a new force like state of the economy is begining to creep in especially the cosmopolitan areas in the south and FCT.
In geopolitics these factors influence results differently and I will only speak to Southwest, Northwest and Northeast.
Southwest
The Southwest is largely influenced by two factors of ethnicity and money. Although the 4th factor of state of the economy will play some roles in Lagos and auxiliary areas of Ogun State, ethnicity is a strong bond that will determine who will win the election. Based on this summation, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to win overwhelmingly with more percentages as you move away from Lagos.its a matter of trlurn out. If campaigns should assume an ethnic dimension, there will be a huge turn out of may be up to 3million. I expect BAT to win at least 2m out of it, Peter Obi and Atiku to share 0.8m and other candidates 0.2m votes.
Northwest
Religion, ethnicity and money are all at play here. However, religion is a binding factor that can easily sway voters. These factors favor Atiku and Tinubu. If the sitting governors are resolute about working for their parties, money will play huge role. Its a 50-50 chance since Atiku is ethnically Fulani. It all depends on how party supporters troop out to vote. Candidates at the Senate and House of Rep will have huge roles to play.
Northeast
This is a battleground region. All these three factors will play key roles. Its largely a 56% -38% share for BAT and Atiku repectively. The Kanuri will vote their own in Yobe and Borno. Bauchi and Gombe are open to monetary impacts and Adamawa is for Atiku to lose. Unlike the NW, Peter Obi will have a few numbers here, May be like 3%-5% in few places. One of the key problems is that most voters in Ngeria do vote the same party same day in the north, and the LP seems to have no heavy weight candidates that can compete in these core areas.
I will impress on you readers to also note that the Niger Delta is a battle ground since there's no home boy and this may affect turn out of voters. Aside those three core factors, party loyalty and money will play crucial role. The battle here is between PDP and LP while APC will do well in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River crossing the 25% required of it due to certain heavy weights in those states like sitting governor in Cross River, Silva in Bayelsa, Akpabio in Akwa Ibim , Oshiomole in Edo and Omo Agege in Delta.
The Southeast is a Peter Obi homegrown and I want to beleive there won't be betrayals as delegates from the region largely voted a northerner against the consensus of voting a southern candidate at the PDP primary. Money will play a huge part here and turn out is key, I expect better turn out than 2019. PDP will still have some votes while APC will get substantial votes in Imo and Ebonyi. Depending on how money moves , expect PDP to get 10%-20% here. I will be surprised if this happen.
The real battle ground I the Middle Belt where religions and money will play key roles differently across all the states. We will need to break it down to pieces:
I expect FCT to be shared among major candidates across ethnic and religious lines. Nasarawa will follow suit but with APC having a majority followed by PDP and LP.
The Yoruba dominated areas of Kwara and Kogi will vote BAT with Atiku following because of his foot soldiers, Kogi will have APC majority votes. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are Christian states and have no ethnic candidates running to be president or Vice President, Senate and HOR candidates and sitting governors will play key roles here. I expect Atiku to win in Taraba and APC to be second and LP third. Benue is too close to call but plateau is battleground state but with APC having most votes because of its foot soldiers. Niger state is between APC and LP.
I will not conclude which party will win but if you have popular candidates in your party and your home region accept you, the better your chances. However, while I won't for certainty say who the winner is, statistically I think APC is the only one that can muster 25% across 24 states and FCT today.
Probability of winning 25% of votes
APC - 26 states +
PDP - 22 states +
LP - 14 states & FCT

Thank you

Let me spare a little time this morning.
Key factors in elections in Nigeria:
1. Money
2. Ethnicity
3. Religion
These are the core factors that shape voting direction in this country. While a new force like state of the economy is begining to creep in especially the cosmopolitan areas in the south and FCT.
In geopolitics these factors influence results differently and I will only speak to Southwest, Northwest and Northeast.
Southwest
The Southwest is largely influenced by two factors of ethnicity and money. Although the 4th factor of state of the economy will play some roles in Lagos and auxiliary areas of Ogun State, ethnicity is a strong bond that will determine who will win the election. Based on this summation, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to win overwhelmingly with more percentages as you move away from Lagos.its a matter of turn out. If campaigns should assume an ethnic dimension, there will be a huge turn out of may be up to 3million. I expect BAT to win at least 2m out of it, Peter Obi and Atiku to share 0.8m and other candidates 0.2m votes.
Northwest
Religion, ethnicity and money are all at play here. However, religion is a binding factor that can easily sway voters. These factors favor Atiku and Tinubu. If the sitting governors are resolute about working for their parties, money will play huge role. Its a 50-50 chance since Atiku is ethnically Fulani. It all depend on how party supporters troop out to vote. Candidates at the Senate and House of Rep will have huge roles to play.
Northeast
This is a battleground region. All these three factors will play key roles. Its largely a 52% -40% share for BAT and Atiku repectively. The Kanuri will vote their own in Yobe and Borno. Bauchi and Gombe are open to monetary impacts and Adamawa is for Atiku to lose. Unlike the NW, Peter Obi will have a few numbers here, May be like 3%-5% in few places. One of the key problems is that most voters in Ngeria do vote the same party same day in the north, and the LP seems to have no heavy weight candidates that can compete in these core areas.
I will impress on you readers to also note that the Niger Delta is a battle ground since there's no home boy and this may affect turn out of voters. Aside those three core factors, party loyalty and money will play crucial role. The battle here is between PDP and LP while APC will do well in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River crossing the 25% required of it due to certain heavy weights in those states like sitting governor in Cross River, Silva in Bayelsa, Akpabio in Akwa Ibom , Oshiomole in Edo and Omo Agege in Delta.
The Southeast is a Peter Obi home ground and I want to beleive there won't be betrayals as delegates from the region largely voted a northerner against the consensus of voting a southern candidate at the PDP primary. Ethnicity and Money will play huge parts here and turn out is key, I expect better turn out than 2019. PDP will still have some votes while APC will get substantial votes in Imo and Ebonyi. Depending on how money moves , expect PDP to get 10%-20% here. I will be surprised if this happen.
The real battle ground is the Middle Belt where religions and money will play key roles differently across all the states. We will need to break it down to pieces:
I expect FCT to be shared among major candidates across ethnic and religious lines. Nasarawa will follow suit but with APC having a majority followed by PDP and LP.
The Yoruba dominated areas of Kwara and Kogi will vote BAT with Atiku following because of his foot soldiers, Kogi will have APC majority votes. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are Christian states and have no ethnic candidates running to be president or Vice President, Senate and HOR candidates and sitting governors will play key roles here. I expect Atiku to win in Taraba and APC to be second and LP third. Benue is too close( the siting governor will probably support Peter Obi, Akume is APC and APC has a popular gubernatorial candidate, Ayu is PDP) to call but plateau is battleground state but with APC having most votes because of its foot soldiers. Niger state is between APC and PDP
I will not conclude which party will win but if you have popular candidates in your party and your home region accept you, the better your chances. However, while I won't for certainty say who the winner is, statistically I think APC is the only one that can muster 25% across 24 states and FCT today.
Probability of winning 25% of votes
APC - 26 states +
PDP - 22 states +
LP - 14 states & FCT

Thank you

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Peter Obi will start North campaign in January, so what are you saying.And North is Overated.Jonathan didn't win North in 2011 and still won the election.North won't give block votes to any candidate this time around.Atiku, Kwankwanso would split Northern votes, so it's not a threat

President Jonathan won the entire southern Nigeria and Middle Belt. In the current situation, if every candidate win their home region, the South South, Middle Belt and Northwest will be at play.
The Northeast however will not be a winner take all.

9 Payment service Bank.
Open an account and thank me later

Argentina will win the world cup

seunmsg:
There will be no runoff in this election. Tinubu and Atiku will get the required 25% in all the 19 northern states. Atiku will get 25% or more in all the SS states and Tinubu will get 25% or more in all the SW states. Thats 24 states for both of them.

Tinubu will get 25% or more in Edo, Ebonyi and Cross River states. Atiku should get up to 25% in Enugu, Abia, Ekiti and Ogun and Ondo and Oyo state.

Overall, whoever gets the highest vote between Tinubu and Atiku will be declared president at first round.

I don't think anyone, I mean any candidate will be able to secure 25% in any of the Southwest states outside Lagos. Tinubu will win at least 70% across these states, the farther from Lagos the higher the percentage of performance.

Workch:
He cannot win there by 70% Oga ade

You people must think that every Nigerian is dumb and will vote on tribal lines

Tribalism/ ethnicity will play major roles in this elections with four key contenders I BAT, Atiku, Kwankwaso and PO.
Tinubu won't get less than 85% in any of Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti and at least 70% in Ogun and Lagos.

IDENNAA:
Keep quiet! You don't have the courage to listen to Obi because you will cry....lmao. We can't wait for February. But if dem born you well carry your druggie old man enter debate......he will shit on his pant...lmao

Which druggie old man? My father is a great grandfather and if you pray to be that old do retract your statement!!!

I have no reason to cry, I have examined all major contenders and just responded to the op analysis because he spoke of some town hall participants.
There are different classes of voters in Nigeria and three principal thing do influence elections; ethnicity, religion and money. Aside being able to eloquently communicate with voters, two of these factors must work for you. However we do have an opportunity to not make them count which I doubt.
What I said of Mr Peter Obi is my opinion, I also have opinions on other candidates.

He tries to run on general discontents and not on any groundbreaking program

His posture is like a man who want the whole world to know that he knows all the problems and all the solutions.

By the time drilling starts, you will understand that emotions don't always win except you a democrat in the US( laughs) . He needs to paint himself as a team builder, a listener and a man with apacity to absorb the fact that solving a national problem is a different ball game across its geopolitics

Aufbauh:
I took my time to dispassionately watched the first round of town hall presidential debate organized by Arise TV, and sincerely my expectations or optimism were dashed.

I wasn't really looking out for eloquence of speech or their oratory prowess but the know-how or an idea driven solution to the many problems that has bewildered our nation and deemed our ray of hope.

Albeit Bola Ahmed Tinubu who was absent and has no representation and Atiku Abubakar who was well represented by his running mate Gov. Okowa( maybe he has a different idea from his VP), every other front line presidential candidate I've expected were there.

Permit me to own up that I was actually keen on listening to Mr. Peter Obi the LP candidate. The much rated presidential candidate on sm & the 'messiah' among crooks to some of my friends.

After listening to his proposals on security & economy with the follow up of questions and answers session, I cringed in my frustration that Nigerians will be in for a long ride if this person is our seemingly 'messiah'.

Obi's idea about the economy is not only shallow and sterile but orthodox, theoretical, insensitive of the 'Nigeria factors' and more importantly our growth rate will be very slow to say the least.
In fact Obi proffers no idea that was outside the box or norm, nor technologically driven. He spoke like a typical hustling trader trying to convince a customer to buy from him.

In his economic proposal he highlighted the issue of SME, cultivating the vast arable land in the north, youth employment etc without specific solution drive. Most painfully that his idea does not envisaged sabotage by civil servants and politicians which has been the major clog in the wheel to govt policies and programmes.

If Obi is giving the mandate to drive the nation economy, I bet it'll take him third term to make any meaningful impact.

In all honesty, Obi sounds like someone who is not much aware and prepared, but wants to fill in the gap for the yearning of new Nigeria by frustrated Nigerians.

However, in my opinion Obi is not a bad candidate per say but not the right candidate for the now. We need someone like him when we have gain economic stability to an extent.
What we need now is an aggressive thinker, builder and organizer of resourcefulness & tactfulness at this time for survival.

Verdict on other participants:

I was greatly impressed by Kwankwaso as he spoke intelligently like an experienced driver even though his ideas were equally Orthodox but practical. Whoever wins should pls engage Kwankwaso.

Gov. Okowa is a smart naive man with current knowledge. I however doubt his ability to drive the economy, although he won't be the main man.

Kola Abiola is passionate and equipped with untested knowledge. He can make a good special adviser as he lacks the experience and right knowledge. He's equally not aware and prepared for the office of the president.

Seun, nlfpmod, Mynd44

Kola Abiola is passionate and equipped with untested knowledge. He can make a good special adviser as he lacks the experience and right knowledge. He's equally not aware and prepared for the office of the president.


Kola said he's from a humble beginning!! quite laughable. He should have built on his father's legacy and run but I could understand trying to paint his own ideas in stars.

Peter obi is trying to run on general discontent due to economic hardship not on ant groundbreaking idea. I have listened to him for quite a while, he's yet to demonstrate the capacity to treat the economic fundamentals.
Buying and selling need to go beyond known market risks drivers, there are many factors limiting the market in Nigeria, some are not demand based.
If you ask me Mr Peter Obi's problem is the larger than life picture of a know it all he has painted of himself, what I think Nigeria needs is not a know it all person but a man or woman who can build a team that can manage the various strategic exposures.
One good thing about the obedient is that the optical class are waking up to that fact that people are now aware and want positive vibes.

Insecurity:
Nigerian-born Amanda Azubuike Promoted To Brig. General Of US Army



https://saharareporters.com/2022/11/03/nigerian-born-amanda-azubuike-promoted-brig-general-us-army-0

Big congratulations sis, up up you go

[quote author=SATANICALLY666 post=117640685][/quote]I think Tinubu needs 60% in NE, 40% in NW, 70% in SW, 40% in NC, 30% in SS and 10% in SE to win.
Atiku is a North' s project of hanging on to power after 8yrs of PMB. Like him or not, Wike is resisting this guise and I expect him to support any southern candidate of his choice.
This pretence by the North to be so pro democracy may sink Nigeria. Power must rotate North to South and we will reach a stage that it can rotate MB and Core Noth then East and West but in principle, it must be North and South.

The tribalism statement made by Atiku and circulating online is unbelievable for a statesman, that shoukd open southern voters eyes and let them vote a southerner.

majole:
I tend to agree with you this time on the SW. My own rough estinste:
LAGOS TINUBU 60% PO 25% ATIKU 14%
OSUN TINUBU 60% PO 10% ATIKU 28%
OYO TINUBU 60% PO 10% ATIKU 28%
OGUN TINUBU 57% PO 22% ATIKU 20%
EKITI TINUBU 63% PO 17% ATIKU 19%
ONDO TINUBU 55% PO 23% ATIKU 20%

Ekiti ba? Tinubu won't get less than 85-95%. Fayose, Fayemi and the incoming governor are all his men. No one will want to even campaign for others there at the grassroot.

No economy operates on Peter Obi's model without corresponding exports to balance the trade. The analysis is spot on, you either disprove his argument or agree with him.
We need to look at producing what we consume or at least produce reasonable percentage.
Obi's plan is to favor traders and importers who could come together and sponsor production of what they sell.
If APC didn't do it well, then the focus should be how ca we do it better to bring down prices of made in Nigeria goods.
Tactfully speaking, that plan is not good for the economy at all.






quote author=Emeks008 post=117357841]This is what former cbn deputy gov said about peter obi economics plan.

If you read in between the line of what Reno tweeted above, he deliberately highlighted some two section of Nigeria which is North and south west. He made mentioned of Dangote tomato paste factory in Kano, Textile company in kaduna/Kano and some factories in Ogun and Lagos. He made it looks like peter obi policy will adversily affect Hausa/Fulani and Yorubas companies.

This guy is trying all his best to makes other tribes to hate Peter obi.

We are wiser now. His plan won't work.[/quote]

It looks like everything will assume ethnic colouration in no time.
With several comments I've read in this post, it appears the target ro ensure Tinubu is not president. I think that will jeopardise whatever strenght this is supposed to portray.
More importantly is the usual less than or over a million votes that Lagos usually return during elections. It doesn't guarantee that this effort will provide the best desired by those rallying. They will need to have a winning formula for four Geopolitical zones like in 2011 during GEJ, otherwise when another candidate win, it will look like it was rigged and pandemonium will ensue.
Let's understand the dynamics of politics that for every action there's an equal and opposite reaction. The North is watching and thinking on what to do. They may force kwankwaso to back down to have a straight fight between APC and PDP with high turn out.
The journey is still far to February.

Your dream is pregnant with meanings. This month is a crucial one in Nigeria. Let's see what God is about to do.

If Tinubu, a Yoruba man did not bomb while in Lagos as governor or afterward, I think we should play politics with sanity.
Expectation should be that another northener should not be the next president after PMB 8 years. We can then come home and start looking at who is who.
Let's not allocate blames and destroy this country online. There's no place like home.
God bless Nigeria

ObosiUkwalla:
shettima and tinubu boys at work

Just because the church of God is rooting for Peter OBI, Shettima and his agbado principal (tinubu) decided to go cause havoc there. God will surely visit them with his wrath.

This is an irresponsible statement. Let's be guided.

That's not true. It's a gas station outside of the camp please, ensure you verify news before closing your headline

OGHENAOGIE:
PDP ll win plateau benue Abuja taraba adamawa Oyo ondo cross River bayelsa Rivers Delta Edo Akwa ibom Abia imo Enugu ebonyi... APC ll win lagos osun Ekiti ogun Kano katsina kaduna zamfara borno yobe kebbi sokoto infact all nw ne except taraba adamawa.... Na only anambra labour fit win that's assuming they come out for labour... It's an election between PDP APC... Labour party will win on social media only

PDP will not win any state in the southwest. A son of the soil is on the ballot. BAT will win at least 80% across all the states in the region.
Those thinking religion will push Youruba people to Atiku or Obi shoukd have a rethink. I see much of South South also voting for him at least half of states in South South.
The coming events in Nigeria will be funny and amazing, most permutations will be needless as things unfold when God begin His own agenda this year.

What was the outcome of this?

Osun is not a predominantly Muslim state. Its religious composition is balanced.
Adeleke has been a popular candidate and its just his time. It also points to the fact that the sitting governor may have undermined some of his constituencies. This also shows that the southwest especially Osun and Oyo are swing states and performance are key to winning election.
I strongly believe its not about PDP and I can just say that a SW candidate will sweep the entire region in presidential election. Politics is local and about sentiments and personal interest globally.

Peter Obi has been able just like many Nigerians highlighted myriads of problem Nigeria has. He could however not come up with workable solution. For instance, he was asked why Siemen worked in Egypt but not in Nigeria. His response was simply that we are not serious. That was not a serious response from someone who wished to display intellectual acumen. It may seem that he simply did not know the snag in the system and dancing around the problem to paint himself good.
He has not given a convincing response to the issue of subsidy removal. He simply pointed to health and education as alternatives he would spend the subsidy money, he was not able to say how he would alleviate attendant rise in cost of living that could come with subsidy removal.

AT the onset of the interview, he accepted that he went to Egypt and Morocco to learn how they are doing stuffs that work, at least he owned up he is still learning. I feel he really need to also learn the complexity of managing a complex Nigeria cannot be wished away on the platter of oratory.

He could not state if he would restructure Nigeria until he becomes the president, he would not speak to creation of state police. He has no idea of exactly what he would do to solve the problem at the port even though he recognized the problems to be human. I don't see him surviving a deeply probing interview. He seemed to be unease with attack around his son for whatever reason and he should just be prepared for more because that's politics. He needs to dig deeper to focus his mind on solutions and how he will get there
Good luck to him.

urchin? you are not ready for governance! Those pushing him are supposed to be intellectuals, he must come with sound conviction. I didn't hear of any idea that can be copied. Its either you have a story to tell or grounds to cover but you must have light to show to the world.

Peter Obi has been able just like many Nigerians highlighted myriads of problem Nigeria has. He could however not come up with workable solution. For instance, he was asked why Siemen worked in Egypt but not in Nigeria. His response was simply that we are not serious. That was not a serious response from someone who wished to display intellectual acumen. It may seem that he simply did not know the snag in the system and dancing around the problem to paint himself good.
He has not given a convincing response to the issue of subsidy removal. He simply pointed to health and education as alternatives he would spend the subsidy money, he was not able to say how he would alleviate attendant rise in cost of living that could come with subsidy removal.

AT the onset of the interview, he accepted that he went to Egypt and Morocco to learn how they are doing stuffs that work, at least he owned up he is still learning. I feel he really need to also learn the complexity of managing a complex Nigeria cannot be wished away on the platter of oratory.

He could not state if he would restructure Nigeria until he becomes the president, he would not speak to creation of state police. He has no idea of exactly what he would do to solve the problem at the port even though he recognized the problems to be human. I don't see him surviving a deeply probing interview. He seemed to be unease with attack around his son for whatever reason and he should just be prepared for more because that's politics.
Good luck to him.

Because they are written in English

Most news in western media are just propaganda. The white House/ Pentagon admitted to such propaganda. There's huge misinformation coming from media in Europe and America on this war so ensure that you do your findings before posting anything on war in Ukraine. Many fake videos, fake news like Russia killing all soldiers on snake island, like Russia asking for weapons from China, staged video etc.
This conflict is an information war

This is a direct affront that may have justified Russian anxiety on the intention of US plan to take over Eastern Europe using NATO as a guise. This is rather a cheer display of arrogance on the part of American leadership . I hope these utterances won't lead to further conflicts.
How can the president of a country advocate for an elected leader of another. Putin may be an Iron man but he has stabilised Russia after the fall of USSR. That's why he's so popular in the country. The Chinese type of democracy, the British type and African types can be improved upon but we cannot all have the type of democracy America preaches.
I hope this doesn't really translate into justifying why Russia started this violent conflict because its now believable that the US authored this war without actually firing a bullet

This is a direct affront that may have justified Russian anxiety on the intention of US plan to take over Eastern Europe using NATO as a guise. This is rather a cheer display of arrogance on the part of American leadership . I hope these utterances won't lead to further conflicts.

Your number 18 is the real deal. The elders used to say, when you beat a child with your right hand, you draw him close with the left. Tucker Carlson predicted this coming, he was labelled a Russian asset.

This sanction is not against a third world country that no one will care, what exactly is American influence in Ukraine that's so much US is willing to risk it all? Its an absolute mistep and even rulers keeping their assets in the US are fidgety, no one will ever trust US again. Its an error of highest proportion.
If Russia survives this, Slavic countries in NATO aren't save

Lifefor Life made me cry. Agbara Nla glorified God for his power and taught us obedience

waiting

Who is the world owing this sum? God or other terrestrial or celestial powers? These are constructs defined by ourselves and are limiting factors to solving some economic problems. Innovation is necessary for developing countries to break free.