₦airaland Forum

Any news yet @Goodsgrace

Ask @goodgrace.

The governor should better perish any presidential ambition if he ever nurse any, Ekiti will revolt if the trend should continue. There are plenty of ethnic and religious suspicion in Nigeria and so every leader must be sensitive in the areas of security before anything goes out of hand.
Just a piece of advise.

Ask @goodsgrace. He/she seem to be a staff there or at workforce or have a good Intel.

I think patience is key, irrespective of what you read here

This thread has gone cold. Nothing again @ goodsgrace?

I feel you are close to the recruiters cos your Intel seems very genuine but what am not sure is if those slated to be at workforce are 16 in number or a role or two are yet to be decided or sent. Pls don't quote me o.

I understand. You don't have to blame him, he's managing info too.

GoodGrace:
If you still don't believe this.....and u don't mind being stalkerish, simply go to Workforce.....on Tues and We'd btw 12-4pm.....then you will see guys that have made it to the finals (if dem use mopol bounce u, no mention Goodgrace).

HEHEHEHE. @GOODGRACE don't mind me. I think a guy wanted to know if the info on final stage is in batches or for all positions and i think you did not answer that, you said yes to both questions.

mcthewills:
But I m yet to get email on this final stage. Maybe I didn't make it to d finals. To all those who got, congrats. Can anyone acknowledge receipt of such email?

Don't think so. @Goodgrace seemed informed but email sent? Not sure maybe scheduling as said.cheers

The trade war is not just about trade but also about political blocs. North Korea, Iran , Israel, Turkey and Syria are in the play. Trump having got most of what he wanted from US-M-C trade talks he was looking at cutting down on the Chinese influence. The Europeans would have been hurt but after initial complaints they were able to exploit underground works to ease the pressure and play along American support looking to catch from the spoils.
China is emboldening Iran and North Korea and making things hard for Trump and so he is looking at boxing China into a corner and with Huawei, the war got to a whole new height. Leveraging on the software side of technology United States seems to have a bait on China. Trump may be a novice politically but he seems to have good advisers as per the economy. Its a kind of web

AreaFada2:
Oh yes, Malami has to be in the reckoning. If he becomes Chief of Staff or even SGF, it would be really interesting.

You see my brother, when you dispassionately discuss politics, some people here cannot take it. They want you to take their narrow ethnic views in their "own favour".

Even back in 2014, I was arguing here on Nairaland that Fashola should become a "Super Minister" with Power & Infrastructure" included in his portfolio. Buhari exceeded my expectation. Although I am an ardent Buhari critic, I was quick to commend his choice of Fashola. Not becasuse I have anything to gain from Fashola but only in hope that he can build on GEJ's work should Jonathan lose. And to relicate his performance in Lagos. When Jonathan lost, we became even louder about Fashola getting that Super-Ministry. It looked impossible considering federal character and need to reward many party loyalist. BUT it happened. I did not go against Fashola because he's from SW.

Fashola's very modest performance in office has shown to me that FG is a very inefficient system. Even the best can wallow in mediocrity in siuch a system. It needs a complete overhaul.

In a sane country, Fashola should be concluding his first term in presidency now. Buhari has no business in Aso Rock.

I hope people finally control their ego, work in national interest and let's give Fashola a chance in 2023.

The inefficiency in the system is abysmal! riddled with various sorts of mediocrity.
There are key factors in the 2023 choice. The mind of the President, my foresight tells me he will want a break from the past and overwhelming baggage politicians carry. He may wish to avoid Tinubu albeit craftily because of the advise of his lieutenants as to how they may not be able to handle a wise Jagaban. It may be conceived as a sour uncertainty to want to anticipate a certain direction 8years later if he's at the helm of affairs.
What of Osinbajo, a wise choice, with a Malami or Rufai deputy, the north can count on face to face maneuvering with the ACN group in APC and they position for next regime. Either Fashola or PYO will perform well, PYO has been building his base and Fayemi, a close allied of Fashola as governors' forum chair, he can negotiate. Another thing is Prof may not be favorably disposed to the Presidency at the end of this tenure or he may wish to play as a statesman.

The governors, serving and former may like Fashola and holding more independent mind that is also their former colleague but Tinubu will be a nut to crack in case of PYO he will loom larger. Let call it stop for awhile.

AreaFada2:
In Nigerian political moves are always deeper than we the masses see. You need insider views often. Fayemi & Fashola are not exactly Tinubu's boys in reality. Both are potent rivals for the presidency. People the North could use to thwart Tinubu's (and even Osinbajo's) presidential ambitions. Fayemi's religion is particularly useful, if the North can somehow manipulate to clinch the presidential ticket. El-Rufai will want that. But it could prove difficult if PDP fields a SW candidate.

Even if the North concedes the presidency to SW, they might prefer someone like Fayemi with a smaller political structure. One they can push around after 4 years. Or gang up against if they see that he has grown wings during first term. If the North chooses Fashola as presidential candidate, they won't have a potent Northern Christian to be VP and carry the hope of the North. El-Rufai won't mind doing a Muslim-Muslim ticket of President & VP though. He has already done a dry run in Kaduna. He'll see Kaduna as a microcosm of Nigeria. He'll want to persuade SW that their relative Muslim-Christian harmony means religion is not important.

It will all become clearer around end of 2020. We'll see if Tinubu can keep his current closeness with Buhari going. We saw that around later part of 2016, he had become a bit distant from Buhari.

Tinubu's best bet is to stand behind Osinbajo for 2023. That way he'll appear truly selfless. And surprise the likes of El-Rufai who have always mistrusted him. Who believe his only goal is the presidency. He'll also remove the religious complication of the North having to find a Christian VP acceptable to Arewa. So that El-Rufai can become VP. Although El-Rufai could become a thorn in Osinbajo's side. More than Atiku was to Obasanjo. But that's a story for another day.

Brilliant.
The contest in 2023 is between Osinbajo and Fashola on one side and El-Rufai and AGF Malami on the other hand. Should Osinbajo be nominated to be president malami or RUfai will be the vice but if Fashola(think PMB) is more disposed to his choice) the notion of a Christian deputy will most probably tilt the deputy to northeast or middle belt. Like you said a Muslim Muslim ticket will sell big in the north.
If in the coming cabinet Fashola retains his portfolio and malami is moved to the villa these will be great signs. I believe the VP has proven himself and found to be comfortable in leadership, acceptable in southeast and south south and middle belt. It's a tricky combo but only God knows tomorrow

Good morning.
Thanks to the op for this topic and thanks to all that has made contributions.


There is a course called PPE (Psychology, Philosophy and Economics) in Oxford University where you would learn behavior in social, cultural and economic context and why micro economic variable are key to advancing economic ideas. That is why there are difference in culture, dispositions and aspirations.
Some cultures are religious e.g. Islamic states like Saudi, Brunei and Afghanistan, Hindi in India etc. while some cultures are not religious or may be less religious. It is therefore pertinent to understand what informed those difference between people and cultures and, that inform their economic behavior.

The Igbo and the Yoruba had suspicious past - Yes, long before the advent of Nigeria and the civil war worsened the situation.

The Igbo and the Yoruba want the same thing - Yes, economic dominance and prosperity

Let's look at the PPE briefly in layman's language:

The Igbo seek prosperity for himself, competitive and seek out superiority to expand his own form of economic dominance. It is not the common goal that is supreme but the goal of individual households, that is the first priority over the communal goal.

The Yoruba seek prosperity for his community and himself, inclined to consensus and stable pattern of life. His economic dominance stems from the communal prosperity.

CONFLICT: When an Igbo man is in the Yoruba community, he quickly see gaps, try to fill it and make prosperity for himself. That is not naturally the problem as the Yoruba often look with a level of awe at how soon he was able to do that. Yoruba are largely ethical( cultural values) in business, are not given to hard competitions and accept an organized systems in the community. So you have farmers, traders, technicians etc without unnecessary infringements but the Igbo who are combative want opportunities to explore and do not give on those organization.

So why so much conflicts: Apart from the usurpation of the community of the Yoruba, the moment the Igbo want to move beyond the realm that has anything to do with decision making, conflicts begin.

How can we solve this problem: Confederation/Regional Semi Independence

The Yoruba often see the Igbo banding together to exercise economic dominance in commerce as an existential threat should that translate into a sort of communal economic power for political power play. The Yoruba land is favored for huge population with the highest purchasing power(now all groups love there) buoyed by economic powerhouse called Lagos. The Igbo need Yoruba land to make money through commerce, conflict will come if and whenever the Igbo seek other interests in addition to the group's economic power.


Can these two groups merge for economic power: Not likely, because their ideas are at variance but if such can satisfy these two constraints, yes
Politically, not likely why? because they want power for different reasons, never about equity but to still achieve the two above in different ways. Their methodologies are not the same.

The North want power for protection; economic and geographical and they are preferred by Europe because of their religious culture that readily play down research and competition. Such culture is similar to oil rich middle east keeping their reserves in their countries, all is about economic survival.


What can happen. I think it is wise to agree to support whosoever have the better chance of producing the next president and focus on restructuring! Am not just willing to say all because this is a public domain. If Yoruba stand the better chance, Igbo should negotiate for what they want to give maximum support and go ahead. Squabbling on who the President is wont ever solve our problem. Negotiate your support on conditions and trust. That is the way forward.

Thank you.

These should be in the same team

BeansAndBread:
When I saw you claiming more Christians than Muslims in Offa and Omu Aran, then you obviously don't know what you're talking about. All parts of Yorubaland has converts to Christianity and no one denies this fact, but Ijebus and Ibadan you stated are majority Muslims despite this. Pentecostal churches are the ones responsible for creating grudges between Yoruba Christians and Muslims and their activities aren't yielding results like 20 years ago. Their influences isn't there anymore as many Yoruba Muslims now know what they're doing, Muslims have began missionary activities and it's yielding great results as many Christians are now embracing Islam. This is a fact!

I see the error sir/ma but reading the piece should have informed you otherwise. I was going to refer to places will larger moslem populations obviously

Yoruba land is what many societies look forward to in attaining peace on religions. Yoruba are so interwoven and most families have members in all the major religions. However for the sake of information, Yoruba people and may be the country of Brazil have the largest number of christian converts into Pentecostalism in the world but I know China and Iran are also moving fast in rates.

If census is conducted I doubt if Christians in Yoruba land can be less than 68% and shocking it will be because for instance, a place like Ibadan has a huge Muslim to christian converts especially in the old quarters and the 40years and below population are seeing Christianity as more fashionable and being driven into Christianity to overcome challenges of life. Ijebu has lots of christian converts too. The state that can probably still lay claims to more christians than muslims is Kwara in Offa, Omu Aran and even the dominance in Ilorin is not that large at all.

Religion has never been Yoruba problem from time immemorial and groups like MURIC will die a natural death. The effect of Pentecostal christianity is huge in Yoruba land and every effort to slow it down failed and I think in the next 10 years over 70% of under 50years will be christians in that bracket.

The argument however is the philosophical life of the Yoruba that transcend religion.

This case will be appealed and end up in the supreme court. I'm not sure the tribunal's position is not conflicting with parts of the electoral law that empowers INEC to exercise its authority but since am not a lawyer, I will like to see how this case ends. I wish whosoever win the best of luck.

I know a lot of guys from some parts of the country feel that not getting what they desire is tantamount to betrayal etc etc. All these talk of another northern presidency in 2023 is their wishful thinking. What they fails to know is that there is always power moving from North to South and even northerners know that the stability they enjoy is hinged on that fact. Party politics is irrelevant in this case and people go check up the history.

2023 is in the hand of the South whichever Geopolitical zone it goes. Those agitating for northern take are just those looking at the political equation and already seeing how they are loosing out. They should wake up and strategize.

I think Nigeria need an economist to head the CBN at this time and politics should be secondary. The Aisha Ahmad need more exposure to me and the country need a well experienced technocrat.

PaChukwudi44:
Says who?

You are only being emotional. wake up.Igbo will contest in 2023 alongside Yoruba and other groups but whosoever has the strongest alliance win. simple.

Cyoung4real:
I will make bold a prediction. One of the major parties will field a northerner in 2023. Then the people who have allied with the north now in anticipation of taking the crown in 2023 will understand the principle of 'tyranny of the majority'...watch thus space ©2023

Nigeria does not work this way. Power rotate from North to South and vice versa. That is what has been keeping the country going. A christian main candidate plus a moslem deputy. That's it.

Who APC will make its candidate in 2023 depends on if Osinbajo decides to contest. I honestly feel he might just retire. The contest is between him and Fashola. I think the Fashola candidacy will be fine but quite troubling for the core north because they will have to nominate a christian to deputize him and he will win.

Should PYO contest, then it will be a muslim deputy and will not be El-Rufai and PYO will win even the SE people will vote for him and so the middle belt. He listens, impartial and pastor who must be fair. If he is to contest he will win most christian areas of middle belt Bauchi and Gombe, plateau etc. Either of these two candidates will be President in 2023 if christ's coming tarries but what do I know, am not God and will not play God, only Him knows tomorrow

I think it is important that the NBS be allowed to do its job which it has been doing well for years now. We must agree that for the first time since the telecommunications revolution, the country seems to be determined to grow the non oil sector. When Mckinsey & Co conducted a research that was released think in 2014, it was posited that most growth was from oil price earnings and the oil money did not impact the poor. it therefore recommended that a system of direct distribution of [part of the proceed be done to reach the poor. I think may be that was what informed Sure P, N-Power and market/trader moni. The skill gap especially in the areas of finance is huge in Nigeria and so because some professional organizations like ICAN has cornered certifications that requires ambitious would be CFO to look the way of their examinations instead of economics and investments/market managements.

The non oil sector is growing though slowly but when you look at the last two decades , you may want to appreciate such a miniature growth. Its up to those Professors interviewed to state their position but I see thing contrary to them because you need to know the number of people trying to put their hands into crowdfunding for agriculture etc and you will appreciate the fact that we are already realizing our inner strengths gradually.

Let me say this for clarity purpose; Nigeria does not produce enough for its own consumption and so import dependent, we have a choice to either reduce our consumption of imported products, produce alternatives or go back to full fledged importation and be completely exposed to the global market movements that can crash our economy anytime. This is hard but the choice is up to us.

@jones4190 you are correct. Voters turn out matters a lot and turn out will be plagued by IPOB in Southeast, Peter Obi factor, Osinbajo factor and apathy in the Niger Delta. The pro Buhari mandate was tested in Lagos during last direct primary election but I feel it wont be that overwhelming in the real election.
I feel the Yoruba see this election as a battle of wits but the Igbo see it as a moral demand. The number of people registered to vote in the south is small compared to the north, it is not a true reflection of the population but for the fact that politicians in the south do not work on getting people get their PVC. Lagos, Ogun and Oyo can double their numbers as the number of registration centers are few, people go to offices etc.

If the turn out is even all over Nigeria PMB wins.

I created this thread in March 2015, see the link and several responses here:

https://www.nairaland.com/2203244/data-analysis-election...my-objective-take

Some people argued that I was myopic and all sort of stuffs. Fast forward to 2019 lets look at what we have on our hands in two weeks time.

The distribution of registered voters across states has been released by INEC but I was a little bothered the corresponding number of PVCs collected should have been shown as well. I however want to gauge the perception of Nigerians and look at how the two front runners stand in two weeks time i.e. PMB and ATIKU across the political zones and FCT.

Key Factors
1. The Performance of the APC: The APC has struggled with the economy and that remains the grey areas in the party's performance. Increase in petrol fuel price from 97 to 145 naira, lost of jobs in the financial system and very low price of crude oil commodity market plus negative image of a corrupt system led to lost of growth and brought in recession not forgetting the exchange rate.
2. The followers of both candidates and their running mates
3. Religion and ethnicity: These will play major roles in two weeks time and will be seriously influential
4. Voters turn out where and by what number
5. Party structure on the ground


NORTHWEST

Here, ethnicity and religion will play key roles. PDP has some big wigs in Sokoto, Jigawa and Kano but apart from Sokoto, governors from these states are of the APC. PMB enjoys cult personality in this zone and he stands to take at least 70% of whatever votes is cast. Talking about the economy do not win votes here as the army of voters are largely less concerned about such. Atiku will do well in Southern Kaduna and get some good votes in Jigawa.Turnout here will exceed 60%

NORTHEAST

The same pattern will follow north west except for Adamawa where I expect Atiku to win by 55-45 but I expect the turn out to be huge in this part of the country above 50%. BUHARI will win this zone by like 65% to 35%.

MIDDLE BELT & FCT

The FCT and Nasarawa are too close to call, so i give them 50-50 chance. These two states have armies of people directly affected by the economic performance and also armies of pr Buhari voters. Atiku will most likely win in Benue by over 65%, Plateau by over 52%, Taraba by over 68% while Buhari will win in Kogi, Kwara, and Niger . Turn out where determines who get majority votes here.


SOUTHWEST
PMB will most likely win this region by 60%-40%. Atiku will do fairly in Lagos, I expect him to poll up to 45% of the protest votes on the economy.His biggest win will most likely come from Oyo state while Atiku's performance in Ogun State will be fair say 35%. I expect 52% turn out rates. Etnicity will play a major role as PDP has no clear program for the region except for the post of SGF will is quite hard to sell and permutations on 2023 is key factor here.


SOUTHEAST
This region is locked down for Atiku. =Permutations on 2023 is key factor here as well and Peter Obi will be seen as a factor. Atiku will win this region by at least 80%. Turn out is expected to be at least 45%.

SOUTH-SOUTH

PMB will win in Edo state but Atiku will win in all other states but, it may be a 65%-35% sharing of cast votes with turn out at about 48%. Unlike 2015 when GEJ contested and it was a moral issue for the region to support him, there is apathy based on those contesting and Akwa Ibom is to watch here.

If you look at all these factors, it looks more likely for a PMB second term.
I welcome opinions and other contributions, thank you.

This is really appalling for a state to have and income that surpassed its liability and yet owe about 75% of its income as debt. I actually did not expect much from that noise maker. What capital project did Fayose execute to show for this humongous debt? Even if he inherited 50bn debt now its over 150bn? That's criminal. With PWC as auditor you could be sure some credibility has been attached to these figures.

I wish Fayemi well and pray more Ekiti elites look the way of politics so the state can become better.

omonnakoda:
No in geography you draw a line through the middle anything above is "North" and below is "south"

The purpose of this thread is "geography" to address the claims that the population figures are rigged.
I do not believe that is the case

Often it is said that across West Africa the population across the South is higher and why is Nigeria's different?
Those who make this argument are making a geographical argument

The geographical response is
Nigeria is not different

The geographical south in Nigeria is more populated than the geographical North because significant parts of the political North are geographically in the South
e.g Oyo is more "North" than Kogi or Benue.

In geography Norh South divide presupposes an "EQUATOR" ie equal on both sides so from a PURELY geographical perspective the South is more populated and we cannot argue that the population figures are rigged on those grounds
That is the point of this thread so please try to understand it thoroughly

All that talk of our fathers marryin 10 wives is irrelevant

If you divide Nigeria into two equal land masses North and South then there are more people in the Southern part. WHY

Am attracted to your argument. Great point.

is this sold ,if sold, any other good one, ready to buy now!

Buterflyle0:
There was no allegation from Tinubus paper. IT WAS A SATIRE!

Do you not know what a satire is?

Plus Buhari does not have burden of any proof. Let the accuser who seems to think he is who he is not, provide his proof to back up his claim.

So if I call you a liar, I should expect you to prove to me that you are not a liar or I who called you a liar should be expected to show proof to support my claim that you are a liar?

Kindly stop quoting me now. I am allergic to idiocy.

The reason you calling me a liar may not matter is because am not the President but the moment you hold such an office, you must take everything serious. Kanu or whosoever started this and the satirical position of the newspaper(you said so) are all actors in the news space. You think if Trump for instance has not been combative he would not have been destroyed by media attack against him? Look brother, am just being a realistic man, if you intend to fail when you get to a leadership position don't respond to allegations? If you are the MD of a beverage drinks company and someone should go online to say he found cockroach in a bottle of your dring and see him holding a cockroach he probably killed in his kitchen cabinet, just sit down there and say the burden of proof is on him and see your company's reputation go up in flames!


Kindly stop quoting me now. I am allergic to idiocy

I want to believe you did not say this to me because I've been logical , non partisan and just realistic. I also doubt if you can hold yours against me but let's just stop it there. Thank you.

Buterflyle0:
You still don't get it.

So Buhari should prove he is the real deal because a mad man like kanu said he is Jubril?

So who then would be proving he is buhari? Is it Jubril or buhari?

Oyedepo is just being senseless as one cannot take a satire seriously.

It's like a comedian while performing coming up to say Oyedepo always puts on white Calvin Klein pants under his trousers and that he heard that the white pant is the source of his strength .

Should Oyedepo then prove he does not wear white Calvin Klein pants and that it is not the source of his strength simply because a comedian said so in a show?

Your point is clear but I suppose you don't get it either. The burden of proof is on the president because he is the president, my president, your president and the president of Nigeria. This Bishop is educated, reasonable and have vast wisdom to be able to succeed in what he does to the extent of where he is today.
Let me point some of the points people have made here; the Nations is Asiwaju's paper and we have awareness that a program like Combat Countdown once screened on DSTV(if you were aware) was done on the purpose of demonstrating American weaponry superiority, its quite possible for you to also erroneously take that as another entertainment but it was meant to codedly inform other countries that America is far ahead. Just ask, what if its all a political game? I mean just thinking?

You see, leadership comes with a lot of challenges and one of it is you must learn to respond to and manage information. You can't just take anything with disdain else you will be shocked how a little fox spoils the vine.

I have read a lot of people says religion and politics are different, what a heck! Islam and Christianity are ways of life and you can't say traditionalist separate religion from governance. How do you swear in your leaders?

GOD IS INTERESTED IN POLITICS, LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE

For along time Christians in Nigeria have been deceived to believe Christianity and politics don't mix, I'll ask them who David, Solomon, Elisha, Elijah etc were in the Bible? religious leaders who played in the political terrain.Prophet Mohamed overthrew one religion in Arabia Peninsula to entrench another, he would not allow an atheist to be king or Imam etc, so why can't pastors, bishops, imam, babalawo etc talk about politics?

Heard of an educated and well to do man of God once realized that even though the Ward Meeting of a certain political party was being held beside his residence, he never participated until one day he just decided to check on them only to realized his driver was the Ward Chairman! he discovered lots of members were taxi drivers, danfo drivers , artisans etc. shell shocked he decided to join and was immediate given the ward chairmanship. Imagine his driver will vote to determine his governor( that's democracy anyway) but that's the extent to which the educated and religious ones have been brainwashed by the political class in order to perpetuate themselves; from father to son and nothing to show for their dynasties!

Dear friend, don't blame the Bishop for speaking up, he has the right to do so, let the President's handlers respond with maturity.

Buterflyle0:
By citing a satire from a renowned satirical writer?

Do you even know what a satire is?

Sir, the Bishop cannot be wrong as a citizen to make demand of his president, being a pastor does not deny him of that right and being a man of God bestows upon him a greater responsibility of being alive to his congregation and other followers who are into millions in this country.

Satire or not, what if the satire is actually a coded message? Or can't you say of many Hollywood movies that are meant to advertise the efficacy of American security agencies so that saboteurs/terrorists can be informed that they will always come on top?

Look, I can say this issue is no longer a child's play and having been addressed by PMB while in Poland, some international media are acting funny in response. While you or me may support PMB in 2019 or otherwise does not defy a common sense that every rumor needs to be debunked before it becomes the truth.

Just follow how CNN has systematically work on the anti-Trump campaign since day one and gbam, the congress went to the Democratic Party, it doesn't make every information churn about Trump correct or morally okay or what do you say? This is an information age and the latest genetic modification on babies in China means science now trends in erstwhile un-threaded lands!

I think the Bishop referenced a story in Nations Newspaper, satire or not, may be its another Hollywood style to tell the truth satirically!!! now, am not saying that but that shows those handling information for the president need to work better at proving to Nigerians and the international community that this story is false, period.