₦airaland Forum

alizma:
if you don't believe in CIA and my data doesn't help you, definitely your case is different.
I don't think I am far from the truth in terms of those figures and assumptions that I deploy to throw light into what happened. remember this is not an official project but something to guide and minimize your confusion or disbelieve. the only few reasons why the reverse can be the case are
1. if you disagree with the fact that Hausa and Fulani born more than other tribes on average judgement
2. if you think average life span of a northerner shorter compare to other tribes.

alizma:
from the table attached, you can see that despite there was increasing figure of each tribes's population by the years, the percentage population of those tribes, when expressed as percentage of total population fell at the end of 5th year while that of Hausa/Fulani increases. this is because the rate at which Hausa/Fulani reproduce is higher than others. base yr percentage used is the same as old CIA percentage you quoted yesterday. I hope this explanation will change your understanding

0monnak0da:
Buhari will win by a landslide.
Obi Ko orogbo ni

grandstar:
I doubt Buhari stands a chance of winning the next election.

First, the "Sai Baba" fervour that brought Buhari in is no longer as strong as it was before. It may even be gone forever. The fervour at which Northerners voted for him was the belief that he was the Incorruptible Messiah that will sweep Nigeria clean of corruption and herald in era of economic prosperity. Many have seen no economic prosperity and a Fulani guy in my compound who was a core Buharist now said that all these rulers forget the common man when they get there. It is "Kai Baba" for him. His words speak for millions of core Northerners. The fervour was what brought him in and that has gone.

He should forget the South West, He can only get there if Tinubu campaigns for him heavily. The Yoruba's are swing voters has noticed by the 2011 presidential elections where Yorubas voted enmasse for Jonathan despite Tinubu urging them to vote for Ribadu. Ribadu only won in Osun state where Aregbesola's then popularity won the day.

The Yorubas deserted Jonathan due to poor performance and fell under the Buhari spell which promised ending corruption, enthroning discipline and ushering economic prosperity. They too are disillusioned.

He should forget the Middle Belt. They aren't keen on anything that reminds that of deadly pastoralists and their coincidental impunity (which Buhari would never support but was too slow to take concrete action) which seemed to commence when their tribesman assumed power

The East and South South will never, ever, ever vote for Buhari.

Your chief subconscious worry seems to be the power bestowed on the political class due to incumbency.

Anyway, he will first need to win the primaries in his party. He had massive support in the past but is the support really there today? Bubu's incompetence has dealt a massive blow to his party and they are now seen in that incompetency light. And worse, his party fiddled while the fire burnt.

He will also need massive finance to win the primaries and the election and who will deploy his or her resources today to assist him?

I might be going to far with this but I suspect Dangote and perhaps some in the rather passive Organised Private Sector may begin to be play a more active role in politics though underground.

A Buhari win for instance is bound to hurt the fortune of his oil refinery as he won't be ready to sell petrol at subsidised prices. I suspect that is why there has been a shift in the commissioning of the refinery to 2019 when he might be gone. The damage done to the economy with Buhari's capital controls in first 2 years as probably been unprecedented in so little time.

Also, Atiku and perhaps Lamido may give Buhari a serious challenge. People may be more interested in Atiku's capable business acumen over his presumed corrupt status. Nigerians now seem to value competence over corruption seeing the fight against corruption as exemplified by Buhari as hubris. Remember that the Naira has lost almost half its value under Buhari against his promised $1 to N1. Yes, bring back our corruption

Simply focusing heavily on Buhari's campaign promises and its' blatant failures is enough to ruin any chances of him winning.

During the 2015 election, the "Change" mantra meant a change in the minds of people from corruption and seeming incompetence of the PDP era and Jonathan rule. This was a clever and it dealt a devastating blow to PDP and especially Jonathan.

Same tactics may work in 2019 if employed by the opposition

Thanks for your insightful piece. Buhari cannot win the next election. He can only win in 22 states and even two of those states are not sure which include Lagos and Ogun states. To bank on the votes of the Yoruba is to build a castle in the air. The Yoruba are affected by the current economic problems more than others.
Kwakwanso, Lamide and even PDM, and these new parties will spring surprises in 2019. Tinubu I suspect will dish Buhari in a discreet way and Buhari has no strength to campaign across Nigeria

Godspeed me Buhari would win the election in 2015 and I argued on this platform in support of his victory but I believe God also gave him a brilliant helper in his VP but ethnic politics and parochialism scuttled Divine arrangement for his success.

Except God play big in 2019, Buhari should forget it, he has lost his goodwill and if Tinubu is promised the next president and want to work for the government as a result, he will be disappointed. Except Buhari do something drastically, we are not likely to see him return:
1. Revaluation of the naira
2. Repricing of petroleum products
3. Prosecution and punishment for the corrupt, may Efcc cases are dead, I mean all three governors etc.
4. No meaningful reform has taken place
5. Foods prices remain high
6. No tangible life touching achievement that can be routed as campaign slogans, what will be his selling point?

Nigerians are now wiser o, now we have the pvc and we will use it

BERLIN (Reuters) - A 27-year-old Nigerian man suspected of being a member of Boko Haram and killing people in Nigeria during attacks on schools and a village has been arrested in Germany, the federal prosecutor said on Friday.


The man, named as Amaechi Fred O., was detained on Wednesday in Bavaria and a day later a judge issued an arrest warrant and ordered that he be remanded in custody, the chief federal prosecutor said in a statement.

“He is strongly suspected of being a member of the foreign terrorist organisation Boko Haram,” the statement said.

It said Amaechi Fred O. was believed to have joined Boko Haram in 2013 and had admitted to actively taking part in four attacks against Nigerian civilians during his one-year membership of the group.

He is accused of killing several people during two attacks on schools and one attack on a village and taking part in another attack on a village, during which members of Boko Haram took girls as hostages and burned down a church.

Boko Haram has been trying since 2009 to establish an Islamic state in northeast Nigeria, from where it has launched attacks and suicide bombings in Niger, Chad and Cameroon. More than 15,000 people have been killed and millions displaced.

EzeNri:
The only sensible one among few.

Investors launch products based on the size of the consumer market. Internet usage is an unbiased measure of population while population is the size of the consumer market. For instance, if the population of Nigeria is 190 million, then the size of our market is 190 million.

SW is the second largest market in Nigeria behind NW, but the largest sophisticated consumer market in Nigeria.

Sophisticated in the sense that it has the largest mix of Nigerians and Non Nigerians and access to the largest logistics facilities. Seaport and airport.

Investors start in Lagos because any product that sells in Lagos will sell in other region.

So everything boils down we have been shouting before, Population.

I love your analysis. You are good.

ItalianWine:
The Iphone7 SomeOne Bought for me Charged Up To 104%, then Switched Itself Off. Then Later It Came On With Samsung Logo

Original Iphone7: