Thanks for your analysis. You under estimated APC performance in Southwest and in Southsouth. APC won't win less than 70% in states outside of Lagos and at least 55% in Lagos. This is the worst case scenario.
I expect APC to have 25% across SS states and score above 30% in Edo, Bayelsa, Cross River. Believe me, APC may even score highest votes in Bayelsa if it reproduce its %age performance of 2019. Delta is another state because the same Delta areas have Obi and Okowa as popular candidates and, Delta South will crown the winner. APC may come second there. Rivers depends on Wike and his followers.
APC will perform better than your projections across the North. Apart from Sokoto NWand NE will return 30% and above to APC send LP may not win above 10% across NW and NE. The key obstacle to LP will be its inability to score 25% in 24states ,(please mark this)
So technically it's between APC and PDP they are capable of getting 24% across 24states and FCT.
If thr LP momentum can be sustained, its on a standby whenever Kwankwaso and Tambuwal are scheming to come in in next dispensation.

The election is here, don't want to say too much. Expectations as APC loses some goodwill as a result of ongoing crises. Worst case scenarios:

My opinion is that Peter Obi can win at least 25% in:

1. Five Southeast states
2. Six south south states

Total = 11 states

Most probably in :
3. Kaduna state
4. Plateau
5. Benue
6. Lagos

Total = 15

He will do well but not up to 25% in other southwest states scoring between 5% - 20% .

I think the strategy by the APC is to ensure Igbos don't vote for Atiku and vote Peter Obi which will most probably deny Atiku the spread he will need if he has a majority votes.
Atiku's hope is his capacity to have 25% votes across all the 19 Northern states. This means he will need just five states in the south to have required winning tally if he has majority votes which he may get in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa- Ibom and Cross River
Except the APC is able to prevent Atiku from getting 25% in may be one or two states in the North Central. The possible states those can be are may be Kwara and Yobe and Borno. If Atiku fails to win 25% in any one state in the 19 northern states, his chances of becoming president will become smaller

The chances of Tinubu depends on his percentage performance in Northwest and Northeast. Overall he will need to win at least 45% in the Northeast, 40% in the Northwest, win at the least four states in Northcentral, at least 70% overall in the Southwest and achieve at least 25% across four of the six Southsouth states. Tinubu will probably win Kwara, Niger, Nasarawa and Kogi in Nortcentral. He will most probably win at least 25% in Edo, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Cross River. Wike role will impact both Peter Obi and Tinubu in Rivers.

When you look at these chances, you would know that Prof Soludo position is well thought through. Even if the turn out is 100% in areas where Peter Obi supporters are in large number, the key issue is winning a25% across 24 states and FCT.

Obalacam:

Do you want to tell me your analysis is better than Anap and Bantupage polls that predicted clear victory for Peterk Obi?

Those were opinion polls. Their sampling method may invalidate their predictions which had happened even in the US in recent elections.

Trollronaldo:
Below is the amount of registered voters by regions.
I am going to make this analysis based on 40% voters turnout in every region, it's not certain but it's enough to give us an insight to as to what will happen in February.

Based on 40% voters turnout, here is the figure from each region

1. NW 8,902,224
2. SW 7,183,506
3. NC 6, 145, 492
4. SS 5, 776, 285
5. NE 5,016,971
6. SE 4,363,042


Analysis based on regions based on my predictions are as follows

Northwest
1. Atiku 35% 3,115,778
2. TINUBU 30% 2,670,667
3. Kwankwaso 25% 2,225,556
4. Obi 5% 445,111

SouthWest
1. Tinubu 50% 3,591,753
2. Obi 25% 1,7996,876
3. Atiku 15% 1,077,526
4. Kwankwaso 2% 143,670

Southsouth
1. Obi 45% 2,599,328
2. Atiku 30% 1,732,885
3. Tinubu 20% 1,155,257
4. Kwankwaso 2% 115,525

Northcentral
1. Atiku 30% 1,843,647
2. Obi 30% 1,843,647
3. Tinubu 30% 1,843,647
4. Kwankwaso 10% 614,549

Northeast
Atiku 40% 2,006,788
Tinubu 30% 1,505,091
Kwankwaso 15% 752,545
Obi 10% 501,697

Southeast
Obi 70% 3,054,129
Atiku 15% 654,456
Tinubu 10% 436,304
Kwankwaso 1% 43,630


TOTAL
Tinubu : 11,202, 719
Atiku: 10,431,080
Obi: 10,239,788
Kwankwaso: 3,895,475


I see Tinubu getting the most votes, however, this is not certain. Tinubu will get the most votes but won't get 25% required coverage. Tinubu will go into a rerun with Atiku.
Atiku will beat Tinubu in the rerun by winning SE and SS. However, it's still too close to call, Tinubu and Atiku may lose the momentum to Obi.


Thanks for reading guys

If you increase Tinubu performance to 70% in Southwest and 25% in South South( a Conservative estimate) then the figure if follow this your trajectory can be more realistic.
Another point is that turn out average is what you stated, I do expect turn out to be up to 45%- 52%. Turn out in SS and NC may be lower compared to other regions where there are strong home candidates

JoeNL22:


The Muslim ticket will play a huge role.

The kkk states will be divided by 3 people(Tinubu, Atiku, RMK) instead of 1 person(Buhari).

Obi will cancel many votes from Tinubu in the ss & se with his(obi) sw votes

Atiku will win NE, Tinubu will win NW.

A divided core north can't beat a united SE & SS.

ATIKU OR RMK must step down for Tinubu. If not. Tinubu can't win the elections.

In the SW, the elections is between obi & Tinubu.

In the SE & SS Its between obi & Atiku.

In the NC, Its between obi, Atiku & Tinubu

In the core north ( Tinubu, Atiku, kwankwanso and Obi[Muslim ticket | Christians will definitely do protest votes and ensure they are not marginalised] )

No reruns.

The election in the Southwest is not between Tinubu and Obi. Its Tinubu home turf.
Please don't overrate Obi in the Southwest. You can only expect good performance from him in Lagos which you can't be sure will be up to 25% because Atiku will also receive anti Tinubu votes too especially among Northern communities. I do beleive the Eastern communities will largely vote Obi in Lagos but with all the votes split across major candidates, its not certain Obi can get 20% in Lagos.
Elsewhere in the Southwest will be worse, the farther from Lagos the worse the outcome for Peter Obi because ethnicity will play a key role both in the Southwest and Southeast and religion will play key role in Northwest and Northeast. The Middle Belt and South South are open.
It's erroneous to think religion will play a key role in politics in among Yoruba, it has not and won't.
The entire Christians I the north won't vote Obi as many of them are either loyal to their leaders, political parties and some will be swayed by ethnicity and religion.
I think APC will win about 4 out of 7 states in North Central and Atiku and Obi sharing large numbers in 3.
Please note that when the election is called and if APC wins 5 states in NC and do 30% - 40% in NW and NE. They have won otherwise it will go to a run off because the formular is to deny Atiku 25% across 24 states and so far its still successful. Obi has no winning formula to achieving 25% across 24 states at least for now.

OKOATA:
Yorubas follow ethnic line but they aren't daft. SW is a multi religious domain, Christians 45%, Muslim 40%. If SW doesn't follow religion why's CAN not supporting Tinubu? How many churches in SW have openly come out to support him? No dey give yourself false hope and stop assuming all SW people are dumb. Even Kwara state won't give Tinubu 90%. Ekiti isn't a Muslim state, Lagos isn't a Muslim state, other state in SW isn't a Muslim state so how will Tinubu get those figures you are mentioning. You assume everyone in SW is daft like you urchins ba. Una dey make me laugh. So Christians will leave Obi and vote a M/M killer ticket. Keep dreaming bros.

I don't know how old you are but I do know you need to improve in decorum. Everyone except Obi supporters are urchins, that's incredible.
I said the mistake you are making is believing that Yoruba won't vote Tinubu because he's a Muslim. I said and quote me after the election that Yoruba will vote for Tinubu en masses and he will win the region overwhelmingly.
Who are the hristians in Ekiti are they nit Yoruba, Ekiti is the most pro Yoruba state in South west and Ondo state, Osun, in that order.
Please note that for a candidate to become president, he or she needs 25% across 24states and must win majority. Peter Obi as at today cannot boast of winning 25% in 24 states. That where having candidates across house of representatives and Senate come in.
I just hope Obi followers won't result to violent rioting when their candidates lose in February because they might cite rigging.

OKOATA:
Obi will take a chunk of christians votes, some percentage of reasonable Muslims will vote him too. Tinubu might have 50% total SW votes while Obi will have 40% or even more.

The Yoruba follow ethnic line before religion. There is no basis to begin to see Tinubu as a religious jingoist, he was governor of Lagos and Fashola after him have both been open people. Many of you attach a lot of hope and expectations to certain creeds that do not move the needle politically. You need to understand key factors across geopolitical zones. For the Southwest it is first ethnicity then money. Religion has never been a key campaign issues here so that you don't think someone rigged your candidate out of winning in February.
I believe Tinubu will win at least 70% in Lagos and up to 95% of votes cast in Ekiti and above 80% in other states of the Southwest. Yoruba have one candidate in this election and whether you accept it or not, religion is not even one of the criteria to analyze him.

Estello:

https://businesspost.ng/economy/major-indicators-that-will-shape-nigeria-in-2023/

Thanks for sharing

Obidient4life2:

Trash!

You can save this till February. All the parties need to work to win, its up up there.

Let me spare a little time this morning.
Key factors in elections in Nigeria:
1. Money
2. Ethnicity
3. Religion
These are the core factors that shape voting direction in this country. While a new force like state of the economy is begining to creep in especially the cosmopolitan areas in the south and FCT.
In geopolitics these factors influence results differently and I will only speak to Southwest, Northwest and Northeast.
Southwest
The Southwest is largely influenced by two factors of ethnicity and money. Although the 4th factor of state of the economy will play some roles in Lagos and auxiliary areas of Ogun State, ethnicity is a strong bond that will determine who will win the election. Based on this summation, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to win overwhelmingly with more percentages as you move away from Lagos.its a matter of trlurn out. If campaigns should assume an ethnic dimension, there will be a huge turn out of may be up to 3million. I expect BAT to win at least 2m out of it, Peter Obi and Atiku to share 0.8m and other candidates 0.2m votes.
Northwest
Religion, ethnicity and money are all at play here. However, religion is a binding factor that can easily sway voters. These factors favor Atiku and Tinubu. If the sitting governors are resolute about working for their parties, money will play huge role. Its a 50-50 chance since Atiku is ethnically Fulani. It all depends on how party supporters troop out to vote. Candidates at the Senate and House of Rep will have huge roles to play.
Northeast
This is a battleground region. All these three factors will play key roles. Its largely a 56% -38% share for BAT and Atiku repectively. The Kanuri will vote their own in Yobe and Borno. Bauchi and Gombe are open to monetary impacts and Adamawa is for Atiku to lose. Unlike the NW, Peter Obi will have a few numbers here, May be like 3%-5% in few places. One of the key problems is that most voters in Ngeria do vote the same party same day in the north, and the LP seems to have no heavy weight candidates that can compete in these core areas.
I will impress on you readers to also note that the Niger Delta is a battle ground since there's no home boy and this may affect turn out of voters. Aside those three core factors, party loyalty and money will play crucial role. The battle here is between PDP and LP while APC will do well in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River crossing the 25% required of it due to certain heavy weights in those states like sitting governor in Cross River, Silva in Bayelsa, Akpabio in Akwa Ibim , Oshiomole in Edo and Omo Agege in Delta.
The Southeast is a Peter Obi homegrown and I want to beleive there won't be betrayals as delegates from the region largely voted a northerner against the consensus of voting a southern candidate at the PDP primary. Money will play a huge part here and turn out is key, I expect better turn out than 2019. PDP will still have some votes while APC will get substantial votes in Imo and Ebonyi. Depending on how money moves , expect PDP to get 10%-20% here. I will be surprised if this happen.
The real battle ground I the Middle Belt where religions and money will play key roles differently across all the states. We will need to break it down to pieces:
I expect FCT to be shared among major candidates across ethnic and religious lines. Nasarawa will follow suit but with APC having a majority followed by PDP and LP.
The Yoruba dominated areas of Kwara and Kogi will vote BAT with Atiku following because of his foot soldiers, Kogi will have APC majority votes. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are Christian states and have no ethnic candidates running to be president or Vice President, Senate and HOR candidates and sitting governors will play key roles here. I expect Atiku to win in Taraba and APC to be second and LP third. Benue is too close to call but plateau is battleground state but with APC having most votes because of its foot soldiers. Niger state is between APC and LP.
I will not conclude which party will win but if you have popular candidates in your party and your home region accept you, the better your chances. However, while I won't for certainty say who the winner is, statistically I think APC is the only one that can muster 25% across 24 states and FCT today.
Probability of winning 25% of votes
APC - 26 states +
PDP - 22 states +
LP - 14 states & FCT

Thank you

Let me spare a little time this morning.
Key factors in elections in Nigeria:
1. Money
2. Ethnicity
3. Religion
These are the core factors that shape voting direction in this country. While a new force like state of the economy is begining to creep in especially the cosmopolitan areas in the south and FCT.
In geopolitics these factors influence results differently and I will only speak to Southwest, Northwest and Northeast.
Southwest
The Southwest is largely influenced by two factors of ethnicity and money. Although the 4th factor of state of the economy will play some roles in Lagos and auxiliary areas of Ogun State, ethnicity is a strong bond that will determine who will win the election. Based on this summation, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to win overwhelmingly with more percentages as you move away from Lagos.its a matter of turn out. If campaigns should assume an ethnic dimension, there will be a huge turn out of may be up to 3million. I expect BAT to win at least 2m out of it, Peter Obi and Atiku to share 0.8m and other candidates 0.2m votes.
Northwest
Religion, ethnicity and money are all at play here. However, religion is a binding factor that can easily sway voters. These factors favor Atiku and Tinubu. If the sitting governors are resolute about working for their parties, money will play huge role. Its a 50-50 chance since Atiku is ethnically Fulani. It all depend on how party supporters troop out to vote. Candidates at the Senate and House of Rep will have huge roles to play.
Northeast
This is a battleground region. All these three factors will play key roles. Its largely a 52% -40% share for BAT and Atiku repectively. The Kanuri will vote their own in Yobe and Borno. Bauchi and Gombe are open to monetary impacts and Adamawa is for Atiku to lose. Unlike the NW, Peter Obi will have a few numbers here, May be like 3%-5% in few places. One of the key problems is that most voters in Ngeria do vote the same party same day in the north, and the LP seems to have no heavy weight candidates that can compete in these core areas.
I will impress on you readers to also note that the Niger Delta is a battle ground since there's no home boy and this may affect turn out of voters. Aside those three core factors, party loyalty and money will play crucial role. The battle here is between PDP and LP while APC will do well in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River crossing the 25% required of it due to certain heavy weights in those states like sitting governor in Cross River, Silva in Bayelsa, Akpabio in Akwa Ibom , Oshiomole in Edo and Omo Agege in Delta.
The Southeast is a Peter Obi home ground and I want to beleive there won't be betrayals as delegates from the region largely voted a northerner against the consensus of voting a southern candidate at the PDP primary. Ethnicity and Money will play huge parts here and turn out is key, I expect better turn out than 2019. PDP will still have some votes while APC will get substantial votes in Imo and Ebonyi. Depending on how money moves , expect PDP to get 10%-20% here. I will be surprised if this happen.
The real battle ground is the Middle Belt where religions and money will play key roles differently across all the states. We will need to break it down to pieces:
I expect FCT to be shared among major candidates across ethnic and religious lines. Nasarawa will follow suit but with APC having a majority followed by PDP and LP.
The Yoruba dominated areas of Kwara and Kogi will vote BAT with Atiku following because of his foot soldiers, Kogi will have APC majority votes. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are Christian states and have no ethnic candidates running to be president or Vice President, Senate and HOR candidates and sitting governors will play key roles here. I expect Atiku to win in Taraba and APC to be second and LP third. Benue is too close( the siting governor will probably support Peter Obi, Akume is APC and APC has a popular gubernatorial candidate, Ayu is PDP) to call but plateau is battleground state but with APC having most votes because of its foot soldiers. Niger state is between APC and PDP
I will not conclude which party will win but if you have popular candidates in your party and your home region accept you, the better your chances. However, while I won't for certainty say who the winner is, statistically I think APC is the only one that can muster 25% across 24 states and FCT today.
Probability of winning 25% of votes
APC - 26 states +
PDP - 22 states +
LP - 14 states & FCT

Thank you

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Peter Obi will start North campaign in January, so what are you saying.And North is Overated.Jonathan didn't win North in 2011 and still won the election.North won't give block votes to any candidate this time around.Atiku, Kwankwanso would split Northern votes, so it's not a threat

President Jonathan won the entire southern Nigeria and Middle Belt. In the current situation, if every candidate win their home region, the South South, Middle Belt and Northwest will be at play.
The Northeast however will not be a winner take all.

9 Payment service Bank.
Open an account and thank me later

Argentina will win the world cup

seunmsg:
There will be no runoff in this election. Tinubu and Atiku will get the required 25% in all the 19 northern states. Atiku will get 25% or more in all the SS states and Tinubu will get 25% or more in all the SW states. Thats 24 states for both of them.

Tinubu will get 25% or more in Edo, Ebonyi and Cross River states. Atiku should get up to 25% in Enugu, Abia, Ekiti and Ogun and Ondo and Oyo state.

Overall, whoever gets the highest vote between Tinubu and Atiku will be declared president at first round.

I don't think anyone, I mean any candidate will be able to secure 25% in any of the Southwest states outside Lagos. Tinubu will win at least 70% across these states, the farther from Lagos the higher the percentage of performance.

Workch:
He cannot win there by 70% Oga ade

You people must think that every Nigerian is dumb and will vote on tribal lines

Tribalism/ ethnicity will play major roles in this elections with four key contenders I BAT, Atiku, Kwankwaso and PO.
Tinubu won't get less than 85% in any of Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti and at least 70% in Ogun and Lagos.

IDENNAA:


Keep quiet! You don't have the courage to listen to Obi because you will cry....lmao. We can't wait for February. But if dem born you well carry your druggie old man enter debate......he will shit on his pant...lmao

Which druggie old man? My father is a great grandfather and if you pray to be that old do retract your statement!!!

I have no reason to cry, I have examined all major contenders and just responded to the op analysis because he spoke of some town hall participants.
There are different classes of voters in Nigeria and three principal thing do influence elections; ethnicity, religion and money. Aside being able to eloquently communicate with voters, two of these factors must work for you. However we do have an opportunity to not make them count which I doubt.
What I said of Mr Peter Obi is my opinion, I also have opinions on other candidates.

He tries to run on general discontents and not on any groundbreaking program

His posture is like a man who want the whole world to know that he knows all the problems and all the solutions.

By the time drilling starts, you will understand that emotions don't always win except you a democrat in the US( laughs) . He needs to paint himself as a team builder, a listener and a man with apacity to absorb the fact that solving a national problem is a different ball game across its geopolitics

Aufbauh:
I took my time to dispassionately watched the first round of town hall presidential debate organized by Arise TV, and sincerely my expectations or optimism were dashed.

I wasn't really looking out for eloquence of speech or their oratory prowess but the know-how or an idea driven solution to the many problems that has bewildered our nation and deemed our ray of hope.

Albeit Bola Ahmed Tinubu who was absent and has no representation and Atiku Abubakar who was well represented by his running mate Gov. Okowa( maybe he has a different idea from his VP), every other front line presidential candidate I've expected were there.

Permit me to own up that I was actually keen on listening to Mr. Peter Obi the LP candidate. The much rated presidential candidate on sm & the 'messiah' among crooks to some of my friends.

After listening to his proposals on security & economy with the follow up of questions and answers session, I cringed in my frustration that Nigerians will be in for a long ride if this person is our seemingly 'messiah'.

Obi's idea about the economy is not only shallow and sterile but orthodox, theoretical, insensitive of the 'Nigeria factors' and more importantly our growth rate will be very slow to say the least.
In fact Obi proffers no idea that was outside the box or norm, nor technologically driven. He spoke like a typical hustling trader trying to convince a customer to buy from him.

In his economic proposal he highlighted the issue of SME, cultivating the vast arable land in the north, youth employment etc without specific solution drive. Most painfully that his idea does not envisaged sabotage by civil servants and politicians which has been the major clog in the wheel to govt policies and programmes.

If Obi is giving the mandate to drive the nation economy, I bet it'll take him third term to make any meaningful impact.

In all honesty, Obi sounds like someone who is not much aware and prepared, but wants to fill in the gap for the yearning of new Nigeria by frustrated Nigerians.

However, in my opinion Obi is not a bad candidate per say but not the right candidate for the now. We need someone like him when we have gain economic stability to an extent.
What we need now is an aggressive thinker, builder and organizer of resourcefulness & tactfulness at this time for survival.

Verdict on other participants:

I was greatly impressed by Kwankwaso as he spoke intelligently like an experienced driver even though his ideas were equally Orthodox but practical. Whoever wins should pls engage Kwankwaso.

Gov. Okowa is a smart naive man with current knowledge. I however doubt his ability to drive the economy, although he won't be the main man.

Kola Abiola is passionate and equipped with untested knowledge. He can make a good special adviser as he lacks the experience and right knowledge. He's equally not aware and prepared for the office of the president.

Seun, nlfpmod, Mynd44

Kola Abiola is passionate and equipped with untested knowledge. He can make a good special adviser as he lacks the experience and right knowledge. He's equally not aware and prepared for the office of the president.


Kola said he's from a humble beginning!! quite laughable. He should have built on his father's legacy and run but I could understand trying to paint his own ideas in stars.

Peter obi is trying to run on general discontent due to economic hardship not on ant groundbreaking idea. I have listened to him for quite a while, he's yet to demonstrate the capacity to treat the economic fundamentals.
Buying and selling need to go beyond known market risks drivers, there are many factors limiting the market in Nigeria, some are not demand based.
If you ask me Mr Peter Obi's problem is the larger than life picture of a know it all he has painted of himself, what I think Nigeria needs is not a know it all person but a man or woman who can build a team that can manage the various strategic exposures.
One good thing about the obedient is that the optical class are waking up to that fact that people are now aware and want positive vibes.

Insecurity:
Nigerian-born Amanda Azubuike Promoted To Brig. General Of US Army



https://saharareporters.com/2022/11/03/nigerian-born-amanda-azubuike-promoted-brig-general-us-army-0

Big congratulations sis, up up you go

SATANICALLY666:

I think Tinubu needs 60% in NE, 40% in NW, 70% in SW, 40% in NC, 30% in SS and 10% in SE to win.
Atiku is a North' s project of hanging on to power after 8yrs of PMB. Like him or not, Wike is resisting this guise and I expect him to support any southern candidate of his choice.
This pretence by the North to be so pro democracy may sink Nigeria. Power must rotate North to South and we will reach a stage that it can rotate MB and Core Noth then East and West but in principle, it must be North and South.

The tribalism statement made by Atiku and circulating online is unbelievable for a statesman, that shoukd open southern voters eyes and let them vote a southerner.

majole:


I tend to agree with you this time on the SW. My own rough estinste:
LAGOS TINUBU 60% PO 25% ATIKU 14%
OSUN TINUBU 60% PO 10% ATIKU 28%
OYO TINUBU 60% PO 10% ATIKU 28%
OGUN TINUBU 57% PO 22% ATIKU 20%
EKITI TINUBU 63% PO 17% ATIKU 19%
ONDO TINUBU 55% PO 23% ATIKU 20%

Ekiti ba? Tinubu won't get less than 85-95%. Fayose, Fayemi and the incoming governor are all his men. No one will want to even campaign for others there at the grassroot.

No economy operates on Peter Obi's model without corresponding exports to balance the trade. The analysis is spot on, you either disprove his argument or agree with him.
We need to look at producing what we consume or at least produce reasonable percentage.
Obi's plan is to favor traders and importers who could come together and sponsor production of what they sell.
If APC didn't do it well, then the focus should be how ca we do it better to bring down prices of made in Nigeria goods.
Tactfully speaking, that plan is not good for the economy at all.






quote author=Emeks008 post=117357841]This is what former cbn deputy gov said about peter obi economics plan.

If you read in between the line of what Reno tweeted above, he deliberately highlighted some two section of Nigeria which is North and south west. He made mentioned of Dangote tomato paste factory in Kano, Textile company in kaduna/Kano and some factories in Ogun and Lagos. He made it looks like peter obi policy will adversily affect Hausa/Fulani and Yorubas companies.

This guy is trying all his best to makes other tribes to hate Peter obi.

We are wiser now. His plan won't work.
[/quote]

It looks like everything will assume ethnic colouration in no time.
With several comments I've read in this post, it appears the target ro ensure Tinubu is not president. I think that will jeopardise whatever strenght this is supposed to portray.
More importantly is the usual less than or over a million votes that Lagos usually return during elections. It doesn't guarantee that this effort will provide the best desired by those rallying. They will need to have a winning formula for four Geopolitical zones like in 2011 during GEJ, otherwise when another candidate win, it will look like it was rigged and pandemonium will ensue.
Let's understand the dynamics of politics that for every action there's an equal and opposite reaction. The North is watching and thinking on what to do. They may force kwankwaso to back down to have a straight fight between APC and PDP with high turn out.
The journey is still far to February.

Your dream is pregnant with meanings. This month is a crucial one in Nigeria. Let's see what God is about to do.

If Tinubu, a Yoruba man did not bomb while in Lagos as governor or afterward, I think we should play politics with sanity.
Expectation should be that another northener should not be the next president after PMB 8 years. We can then come home and start looking at who is who.
Let's not allocate blames and destroy this country online. There's no place like home.
God bless Nigeria

ObosiUkwalla:
shettima and tinubu boys at work

Just because the church of God is rooting for Peter OBI, Shettima and his agbado principal (tinubu) decided to go cause havoc there. God will surely visit them with his wrath.

This is an irresponsible statement. Let's be guided.

That's not true. It's a gas station outside of the camp please, ensure you verify news before closing your headline

OGHENAOGIE:
PDP ll win plateau benue Abuja taraba adamawa Oyo ondo cross River bayelsa Rivers Delta Edo Akwa ibom Abia imo Enugu ebonyi... APC ll win lagos osun Ekiti ogun Kano katsina kaduna zamfara borno yobe kebbi sokoto infact all nw ne except taraba adamawa.... Na only anambra labour fit win that's assuming they come out for labour... It's an election between PDP APC... Labour party will win on social media only

PDP will not win any state in the southwest. A son of the soil is on the ballot. BAT will win at least 80% across all the states in the region.
Those thinking religion will push Youruba people to Atiku or Obi shoukd have a rethink. I see much of South South also voting for him at least half of states in South South.
The coming events in Nigeria will be funny and amazing, most permutations will be needless as things unfold when God begin His own agenda this year.

What was the outcome of this?

Osun is not a predominantly Muslim state. Its religious composition is balanced.
Adeleke has been a popular candidate and its just his time. It also points to the fact that the sitting governor may have undermined some of his constituencies. This also shows that the southwest especially Osun and Oyo are swing states and performance are key to winning election.
I strongly believe its not about PDP and I can just say that a SW candidate will sweep the entire region in presidential election. Politics is local and about sentiments and personal interest globally.