₦airaland Forum

The NIN is the factual data that can form factual baseline for estimating population in Nigeria alongside BVN, phone lines, drivers, voters cards and international passports.

If you base your computation on this and not rely on disputed and faulty estimates, Nigeria population may just be over 200m and not up to 230m as being touted. Each of these means of identification has their faults but they c an provide us with reasonable values.

The core argument that many young people don't have the NIN for instance is a common denominator within +-10% . The core north historically do have more people mobilized for government issues especially with certain rewards such as resource allocations etc. the Fulani population was used in the post 1963 census to shore up the NW population.

Factually speaking, the difference between the Hausa and the Yoruba are two largest groups with +-5m difference between them. I believe the population of the NW is grossly exaggerated. Although the NW has better rural dwellers, am still yet to see where their estimated population live. Believe you me, its possible Kano may have enrolled more than 90% of its people into NIN including the almajiri who some may have sometimes been provided with voters card during elections. So instead of assuming that the North is under registered, it may be the north that is better registered than others. Kano state for instance cannot probably exceed 14m and still far behind Lagos state

The NIN is the factual data that can form factual baseline for estimating population in Nigeria alongside BVN, phone lines, drivers, voters cards and international passports.

If you base your computation on this and not rely on disputed and faulty estimates, Nigeria population may just be over 200m and not up to 230m as being touted. Each of these means of identification has their faults but they c an provide us with reasonable values.

The core argument that many young people don't have the NIN for instance is a common denominator within +-10% . The core north historically do have more people mobilized for government issues especially with certain rewards such as resource allocations etc. the Fulani population was used in the post 1963 census to shore up the NW population.

Factually speaking, the difference between the Hausa and the Yoruba are two largest groups with +-5m difference between them. I believe the population of the NW is grossly exaggerated. Although the NW has better rural dwellers, am still yet to see where their estimated population live. Believe you me, its possible Kano may have enrolled more than 90% of its people into NIN including the almajiri who some may have sometimes been provided with voters card during elections. So instead of assuming that the North is under registered, it may be the north that is better registered than others. Kano state for instance cannot probably exceed 14m and still far behind Lagos state

If you want to hear the truth there are higher possibilities of having some states before an Anioma can be created:

In the North we have the Southern Kaduna State, the Southwest have Ibadan, Ijebu and Okun in Northcentral all of which has significant population, larger landmass etc.

I would prefer we rather move to say 12regions and Parliamentary democracy. This is just a political gimmicks that may not see the light of the day.

Pay attention, this may be true after all. If this is the case and its in the ADC and Atiku permits it, then it will be a game of thrones. PBAT will win anyway but Niger Delta votes will be split into two and South east will vote Jonathan but if Obi has a separate ticket, Southeast will vote for his party still. If Atiku also have a separate ticket then PBAT will win handsomely.

The United States will demand a Christian VP to PBAT in 2027. PBAT himself knew this and getting the South-south is his winning ticket to balance out Atiku-Obi ticket which will most likely come out of ADC.

I think promoting General Musa to defense is the first step, that will essentially close 70% of the Middle Belt votes for the president. The nuclear option will be to deny Atiku-Obi ticket the 25% necessary across 24 states which is the reason for having governors decamp to APC, its strategic and purposeful.

ADC will win some governorship seats in the core north but let's look at possibilities:
1. The core north revolt against PBAT and vote Atiku-Obi ticket - Kaduna, Adamawa and Taraba will be won by APC while ADC will win majority in remaining 10 states through APC may pick up 25% or more in half of those states.

2. There is division in the north and Peter Obi is on a separate ticket: Kaduna, Adamawa and Taraba will be won by APC while ADC will win majority in remaining 10 states through APC may pick up 25% or more in half of those states while Peter Obi will do worse that 2023. I will want to believe that will be Atiku-Amaechi ticket.

3. The Middle Belt split their votes- PBAT will get over 60% of total votes across this region and will be impressive in Benue, Kwara, Plateau winning super majority. Atiku-Obi ticket will do well above 40% of total votes in Niger, Kogi, FCT and Nasarawa but APC will have majority.

4. The Middle Belt revolt against Atiku-El Rufai coalition - The Middle Belt gives over 60% of total votes to PBAT and split the votes across remaining candidates especially if Peter Obi is on a separate ticket.

5. The Southwest supports PBAT overwhelmingly - The fact is, this is a game of turn outs. If its a drawn battle, the southwest can double its voting strength because turn out has been bad in previous elections compared with 80% of registered voters. PBAT will win across all the states this time and I expect between 76- 78% of total votes. In this region Atiku-Obi or Peter Obi ticket will not get 25% of the votes. Please note this down.

6. The south -east will vote against PBAT, Though he is expected to do better than 2023, there will be a lot of 'influence' and he will cross 25% in 2 states out of 5 and will win over 10% across each of the states. A Peter Obi or Atiku-Obi ticket will sweep the region.

7. The South-South is a game that must be won by PBAT and it will be the most influential region in 2027 election. Money and influence will play key roles and expect PBAT to win 60% across each state if Amaechi is on the ticket as a Presidential candidate. If its Atiku -Obi, the ADC will not do well in this region and wont even have 25% in 4 of the 6 states.

What does it now looks like? An Atiku-Obi ticket wont have 25% across 24 states which is the major issue but their numbers will be impressive. They will clinch some governorship seats in the core north and it will be an anti-Tinubu waves in some states including the two Kanuri majority states of Borno and Yobe because Shettima will not be on the ticket.

I agree completely and institutions named after leaders that plotted coups should be renamed.

You can leave a road in his name. So we can have the airport renamed as Eko International Airport

Justnation:
Thank you so much for this masterpiece.

We need more of this write ups to counter the false narrative of the enemies of Igbo people.

The problem with our youths these days is that they are lazy to read and research, they have simply accepted the narrative of enemies of Igbo people whose sole objective is to fragment Igboland for their selfish interest of domination through divide and rule strategy.

The writer is absolutely correct and on point, his narrative is born out of deep knowledge of historical facts and traditions. As he stated Igboland is vast and far bigger than what it has been purportedly reduced to today.

Certainly Igboland will come together in the near future.

IGBO youths all over the world must begin to reject the false narrative of our enemies, and reunite for a prosperous future together.

Thank you so much OP for this wonderful historical facts you have written.

Write ups will not win you such people. Those people will need to embrace the Igbo. You must be able to convince them they are your people through their fathers' compound somewhere in a town or village in the hinterland.

The Ikwere, Opobo and Anioma are important to an Igbo nation for three reasons;
1. Access to the sea (Ikwere & Opobo are the gateways)
2. Access to resources such as oil and gas (Ikwere & Opobo are key)
3. Access to the western flanks across the Niger( The Anioma are the gateway)

The need for these three sections are quite understandable because they appear as the low hanging fruit. I noticed during the Anioma state campaign, the moment some elements in the Anioma says yes they wanted the state but would be counted as a south south sate, many pro Anioma backed off to prefer other alternatives.

The Anioma, judging by the position of their traditional rulers have various groups and ancestry to Benin or Igala which is why you have some wanting to stick with Bini and others with Igbo. Even Onitsha traced its ancestry to Bini and Philip Emegwali one of its most illustrious sons says its a Bini ancestry.
How do you then lay claims to people who don't share your dream of being in the same country?
I believe if Nigeria don't restructure, it cannot survive a 100years history from independence but even if Nigeria were to divide into different new countries eventually, once there is a Niger Delta Republic, the hope of Biafra is dashed as the Igbo, a very industrious people will have to use a new name I supposed. So all these campaigns are meant to increase the greater survival of the Igbo nation.

Lets look at that scenario even more; the Niger Delta itself will be super volatile as groups want to claim the low hanging fruits, the oil and gas reserves because this is what will provide immediate funding and survival for any new country and it can lead to spontaneous conflagrations across different areas of the new country and ethnic boundaries can become flashpoints. However if the evolvement of the country is midwifed by say the US or any other country, the intention of the Igbo to adventure to take over say by claiming Ikwere land is theirs and starting a war will unite those groups to resist such adventure and make negotiation of access to the sea difficult. What the Igbo nation must do is extract favorable terms in getting access to use the seaport there am assuming at Calabar, Ibaka and Onne.

Let me be clear: There is in reality nothing called Rivers State

In reality there is a Rivers State and it is made up of several ethnic groups of which Igbo is part and also have other non-Igbo groups e.g. Ijaw.


Today, Ndi Igbo have been fragmented in no fewer than 13 states of Nigeria

You did not mention these states and where Igbo people are. Let us all also understand that for you to claim a people are your kinsmen or people, its not that you must just claim them they must also claim you and bearing similar names, is just like saying Rotimi Amaechi bears Yoruba name so Porthcourt or his hometown is Yoruba town, no, things don't work that way otherwise all Richards, Tom, Lance etc would be British.

Let's compare two groups in Nigeria; the Itsekiri and the Ikwere

The Itsekiri traced their ancestry to Ife through two routes and are saying, we are Yoruba by ancestry and language and culturally Yoruba and Bini. The Yoruba also open their arms to say, you are welcomed. Now there are even groups from as far as Ghana who have come to say Ife is their source. Now you would notice that its both ways not one group claiming the other. About 50% of Igala language is Yoruba but Yoruba has never forcefully say they are the same because Igala will have to trace its ancestry to a common beginning and shared ownerships of culture or language.

The Ikwere on the other hand and some parts of Anioma if I must say are claiming different ancestry though they may have shared names and may be some aspects of culture with Igbo. No one can separate kinsmen even across international borders e.g. North and South Koreans still see themselves as families despite all the political and military conflicts because they are by ancestry and everything. If some people are your people like the Ikwere, they will willingly come to you.

The question is, have you drawn an ancestral location that join you with all these people across these 13states? At what point did they become or accepted to be Igbo? Who was their forebears? Language can be adopted due to proximity or commerce, names can be adopted but its deeper than that, for instance, Hausa is spoken across several non Hausa Fulani states in northern Nigeria and it does not make all the people Hausa.

Technological developments and general understanding of global issues has advanced people consciousness and to want to share a common boundary with any group would have be be done by a powerful global power or show economic and cultural benefits. These are what the Igbo should be working on not just writing claims on people who do not share such vision with you.
Thank you.

I don't think the first lady made this statement.

We have thrashed this on X(twitter), we don't have more Muslims than Christians but the other way round.

Among the Yoruba in southwest, a Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian ticket at state or national level may not matter because of religious tolerance, plurality and freedom.

There are 36 states in Nigeria and FCT.

NORTH

States with Muslim majority in the North : Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi, Katsina, Kano, Bauchi, Borno, Jigawa, Yobe,

States with Muslim majority but with significant Christian population above 25% : Gombe, Niger, Kwara

Christian dominated states : Benue, Taraba, Plateau
States with more balanced population of Christian and Muslim(i.e. you need census to know actual figures): Adamawa, Nasarawa, Kogi ,Kaduna.

SOUTH

States with Christian dominated population are : Ekiti, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, River, Akwa- Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Anambra

States with more balanced population of Christian and Muslim(i.e. you need census to know actual figures) : Osun, Oyo

States with Christian domination but with significant Muslim population: Ogun, Lagos

Note:

For the Muslim dominated states of Bauchi, Borno and Kebbi there are at least over 15% Christians who are indigenous of those states.

There is no way Muslims can be more, the argument has always been the population of the Northwest region with dominant Muslim population which will collapse in the face of biometric enabled census.
Even with the estimated census based on the 2006, Christians would be more.

Talking about biometrics enabled census, the most populous state in the north by far is Kano which may be around 14million people, this is less than the number of Christians in Lagos and at least 10% of that are Christians and they have small indigenous Christian population. Kaduna that is next say 9millionhas over over 40% Christians. This leaves Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno as the Muslim dominated states.

Logically, there is no way Muslims can be in majority and I do hope someday, a biometric enabled census will happen and the outcome will shock many.

AustineE1:
Uga ignorance is costly,try and learn,not depending on statistics that are meaningless . Why not ask yourself why inspite of the low VAT collected in the south east,yet they have the least poverty ratio,have lowest number of out of school children,have lowest number of unemployed,have the highest number of educated people,have more developed rural area than any region in west Africa,have more states that are cleaner than other regions,according to statistics etc.
If you blink you miss out.

Can I answer you? Yes let me try.

1. The southeast is the smallest region with landmass roughly the size of Oyo state and it receives five allocations from FGN meaning it receives more per square km more than any other region in Nigeria and have more money to build public infrastructure including schools, health centers , roads etc. So the current % to total population of the Southeast should be around 12%.
2. Its the region with net migration, so because a high % of its population are involved in Nigeria's supply chain, their remittance to population is very high and this is attested by the level of residential housing developments you can see. While this is good, it also means the region is dependent on consumers who are largely living outside of the region which is why the issue of relocating their businesses home may not work because others will occupy that vacuum and it will end in losses.
3. When you look at contribution to the economy in VAT etc, VAT captures formal areas of the economy but the informal sector is very huge above 40% in Nigeria(may be 60%) and VAT does not play into these e.g. when you buy pure water in traffic, no VAT is paid but if you buy same in eatery yo do pay VAT. If we are to include those segments, we may have something like below:

Zone Share of National Consumption 3-Year Consumption ($bn)
South West (incl. Lagos) 32% $320bn
North West 21% $210bn
North Central 14% $140bn
South East 12% $120bn
South South 11% $110bn
North East 10% $100bn
Nigeria Total 100% $1,000bn

4. The Southeast may have the highest per capital consumption due to a small share of the population just below the Lagos metropolitan areas however, the consumption values for NW is higher due to more population but far lower per capita capacity.
5. This shows that the SE businesses are less formal and their production capacity is about 10% of national output below Northcentral at about 11% due to large farm outputs and about 15% by Northwest due to largely farm and commerce around Kaduna and Kano. These estimates covers farm and non farm economic output. SS is second like 25% due to oil and gas.


Data does not lie and its not emotional. VAT does not capture all consumptions but its a pointer to the money and consumption capacity, modernization and attracts capital because those are data investors can relate to.

I hope this helps.

I will do 2027 projection here again God sparing our lives before the election when there is a clear political alignment and realignment because based on the existing structures across political parties, the incumbent is poised to win a second term but there are several factors at play:

1. Ethnicity
2. Money
3. Economy( Gen Z largely)
4. US pressure - change of Vice President to a Christian person from the North and I can easily predict Gen Musa, Yakubu Dogara or the current APC chair
5. Religion - Key to the core north anti Tinubu campaign but bot yet conclusive

We will look at this later

I ran my 2023 election prediction through AI, see response below and to those who criticized for 2027 God will inspire us to be more accurate:



QUerry to AI : compute the % accuracy of the analysis of prediction below:

Let me spare a little time this morning.
Key factors in elections in Nigeria:…
1. Money
2. Ethnicity
3. Religion
These are the core factors that shape voting direction in this country. While a new force like state of the economy is begining to creep in especially the cosmopolitan areas in the south and FCT.
In geopolitics these factors influence results differently and I will only speak to Southwest, Northwest and Northeast.
Southwest
The Southwest is largely influenced by two factors of ethnicity and money. Although the 4th factor of state of the economy will play some roles in Lagos and auxiliary areas of Ogun State, ethnicity is a strong bond that will determine who will win the election. Based on this summation, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to win overwhelmingly with more percentages as you move away from Lagos.its a matter of trlurn out. If campaigns should assume an ethnic dimension, there will be a huge turn out of may be up to 3million. I expect BAT to win at least 2m out of it, Peter Obi and Atiku to share 0.8m and other candidates 0.2m votes.
Northwest
Religion, ethnicity and money are all at play here. However, religion is a binding factor that can easily sway voters. These factors favor Atiku and Tinubu. If the sitting governors are resolute about working for their parties, money will play huge role. Its a 50-50 chance since Atiku is ethnically Fulani. It all depends on how party supporters troop out to vote. Candidates at the Senate and House of Rep will have huge roles to play.
Northeast
This is a battleground region. All these three factors will play key roles. Its largely a 56% -38% share for BAT and Atiku repectively. The Kanuri will vote their own in Yobe and Borno. Bauchi and Gombe are open to monetary impacts and Adamawa is for Atiku to lose. Unlike the NW, Peter Obi will have a few numbers here, May be like 3%-5% in few places. One of the key problems is that most voters in Ngeria do vote the same party same day in the north, and the LP seems to have no heavy weight candidates that can compete in these core areas.
I will impress on you readers to also note that the Niger Delta is a battle ground since there's no home boy and this may affect turn out of voters. Aside those three core factors, party loyalty and money will play crucial role. The battle here is between PDP and LP while APC will do well in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River crossing the 25% required of it due to certain heavy weights in those states like sitting governor in Cross River, Silva in Bayelsa, Akpabio in Akwa Ibim , Oshiomole in Edo and Omo Agege in Delta.
The Southeast is a Peter Obi homegrown and I want to beleive there won't be betrayals as delegates from the region largely voted a northerner against the consensus of voting a southern candidate at the PDP primary. Money will play a huge part here and turn out is key, I expect better turn out than 2019. PDP will still have some votes while APC will get substantial votes in Imo and Ebonyi. Depending on how money moves , expect PDP to get 10%-20% here. I will be surprised if this happen.
The real battle ground I the Middle Belt where religions and money will play key roles differently across all the states. We will need to break it down to pieces:
I expect FCT to be shared among major candidates across ethnic and religious lines. Nasarawa will follow suit but with APC having a majority followed by PDP and LP.
The Yoruba dominated areas of Kwara and Kogi will vote BAT with Atiku following because of his foot soldiers, Kogi will have APC majority votes. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are Christian states and have no ethnic candidates running to be president or Vice President, Senate and HOR candidates and sitting governors will play key roles here. I expect Atiku to win in Taraba and APC to be second and LP third. Benue is too close to call but plateau is battleground state but with APC having most votes because of its foot soldiers. Niger state is between APC and LP.
I will not conclude which party will win but if you have popular candidates in your party and your home region accept you, the better your chances. However, while I won't for certainty say who the winner is, statistically I think APC is the only one that can muster 25% across 24 states and FCT today.
Probability of winning 25% of votes
APC - 26 states +
PDP - 22 states +
LP - 14 states & FCT
Thank you
compare with what actually happened and % of closeness to the reality
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Listen

AI Response:

To compute the accuracy of the prediction, we must compare the forecasts against the Official INEC 2023 Presidential Election Results.
The overall accuracy of this analysis is approximately 75% – 80%. While the qualitative behavioral analysis (ethnicity, religion, and money) was spot on, the quantitative estimates (vote numbers and specific state carries) were disrupted by the "Obi Factor," which the analyst slightly underestimated in certain regions like the Middle Belt and South-South.


1. Regional Accuracy Breakdown
Southwest (Accuracy: 85%)
• Prediction: Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) to win overwhelmingly; high turnout of 3m; BAT to get 2m votes.
• Reality: BAT won the region, but Lagos was a shock loss to Peter Obi. Total turnout in Lagos was only ~1.3m (far below the predicted 3m).
• Hit: Correct that ethnicity was the "binding factor" in the hinterlands of Ogun, Oyo, Osun, and Ondo.
• Miss: Underestimated Obi’s strength in Lagos and the impact of the "state of the economy" on urban voters.
Northwest (Accuracy: 90%)
• Prediction: 50-50 chance between BAT and Atiku; religion and ethnicity as binding factors.
• Reality: This was very close. BAT won the region by a slim margin, but Atiku took key states like Kaduna, Sokoto, and Kebbi.
• Hit: Correct that it would depend on "Senate/HOR candidates" and "sitting governors." Governors like Ganduje and El-Rufai were indeed pivotal for BAT.
Northeast (Accuracy: 70%)
• Prediction: 56% BAT, 38% Atiku; Kanuri to vote Shettima in Borno/Yobe; Obi to get 3-5%.
• Reality: BAT won Borno and Yobe decisively (thanks to the Shettima factor). However, Atiku won the region’s total vote share slightly because he dominated Adamawa, Bauchi, and Gombe.
• Hit: "Adamawa is for Atiku to lose" — he won it convincingly.
South-South & Southeast (Accuracy: 75%)
• Prediction: SS to be a battleground (PDP vs LP); SE to be Obi homegrown with 10-20% for PDP.
• Reality: In the SE, the "betrayal" did not happen; Obi got over 90% in some states, leaving PDP with <5% in many areas (worse than the 10-20% predicted). In the SS, Obi won Delta, Edo, and Cross River, while BAT won Rivers (controversially).
• Hit: APC did indeed cross the 25% mark in most SS states due to the "heavyweights" (Akpabio, Omo-Agege) mentioned.
Middle Belt & FCT (Accuracy: 65%)
• Prediction: FCT shared; Kwara/Kogi for BAT; Plateau battleground; Niger between APC and LP.
• Reality: Obi won the FCT and Plateau outright, which the analyst didn't quite foresee. Kwara and Kogi went to BAT as predicted.
• Miss: The analyst underestimated the "Christian vote" block in the Middle Belt that moved en masse to the Labour Party.

2. Statistical Comparison: 25% Spread
The analyst's prediction on the ability to muster 25% of the votes in states was the most impressive part of the analysis.
Candidate
Prediction (States + FCT)
Reality (States + FCT)
Closeness
APC (Tinubu)
26 States +
29 States
High
PDP (Atiku)
22 States +
21 States
Very High
LP (Obi)
14 States & FCT
15 States & FCT
Very High
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3. Qualitative Factor Analysis
The analyst's "Core Factors" ranking was perfectly aligned with the outcome:
1. Money: Influenced the ability of APC and PDP to maintain structures in rural areas.
2. Ethnicity: Clearly defined the wins in the SE (Obi), SW (Tinubu), and parts of the North (Atiku).
3. Religion: Played the deciding role in the Middle Belt and North-Central shifts.


Final Verdict
The analysis was a Professional Grade Projection.
It failed mostly on Turnout Volume (which was the lowest in history at ~27%) and the Intensity of the Urban Shift toward the Labour Party.

However, in terms of identifying who would win where and why, it was significantly more accurate than most formal polls released in 2022.

Irresponsible headline.
The FGN budgeted funds for different rail project but the headline screamed Lagos.

That taken I think the FGN is not doing enough to fund good projects around Lagos and Ogun axis that contain the industrial infrastructure of the country. This axis accounts for over 70% of non-oil incomes of the entire country. Its either a fiscal federalism or a form of derivation is also legislated as these states cannot sustain their infrastructural growth through their budgets alone as more and more people come seeking opportunities and a large chunk of their incomes are distributed far and wide.

The federal government is supposed to be providing additional N1trillion annually to support Lagos and Ogun industrial axis. To those who may have reason to complain, first state you state of origin, how much it generates and how much it receives from the FGN before you cry wolf.

Anyone that think the Northern mafia will put for someone from the Southeast up for the post of the President is deceived.


The core north will back off if ADC gives its ticket to Obi, bookmark this for reference, they will fall back and negotiate with Tinubu and will probably want him to keep a core northern Muslims as his deputy.

Here is my take, the United States will most probably pressure Tinubu to chose a Christian Vice and he may probably chose either General Musa, current APC Chairman from Plateau, the secretary to FGN from Benue or Yakubu Dogara.

If General Musa, it may piss off the northern oligarchs together with anti terror war, make Tinubu lose across most of the 13northern states but may get enough to pass 40%- 25% across all of them. The Middle Belt states will deliver their votes massively notwithstanding who opposition parties present.

If Obi is on the ballot whether as the President or Vice, the Southeast will vote him massively and Tinubu may only get 5-25% max wherever he performs so well. The Southwest will vote massively for Tinubu a lot more than in 2023 based on the same reasons Southeast will vote for the Obi ticket.

The South-south is the beautiful bride, will be dominated by Tinubu because of the various pact with the various power players and the gladiators. He will probably win at least 55%- 80% across these areas depending on the elimination method deployed.

This is my conclusion: An Atiku -Obi ticket is the strongest but will still fall short of 25% across 24 states.
An Obi-Kwankwaso ticket will suffer defeat because the North wont want to sail that storm. An Obi-ElRufai ticket will lose in a disastrous manner because the entire Christian Middle Belt will reject it with passion.

If US pressure persists, Tinubu may chose Gen Musa as his deputy or Yakubu Dogara or even the current APC chairman or Secretaryto FGN.
Any of these will lock down most of Middle Belt and Southern Kaduna. Add that to Southwest with better performance for him in Lagos and Osun this time and better turn out. I believe Southwest will deliver between 3.5m to 5.2m votes for Tinubu in 2027.
Atiku will not get votes from the Middle Belt on Account of the threats posed to them by Northern elements through various terrorists groups.
The region at play is the South - South because over 80% of SE will still vote for Obi's party in whichever capacity.

More than 70% of the core North NW & NE will vote for Northern candidate. Tinubu can only divide the vote through NNPP or divide the votes to get 25% from at least 8 of its 13 states.
Denying Atiku a 25% across 24states is the tactics to rule him out and without outright winning of either Southsouth or Southeast Atiku cannot win

If am to predict it will likely be a Tinubu-Musa/ Dogara ticket and it will win.

Am interested in your data. Kindly provide a link and allow us to have a look.
I

God of all flesh, the all powerful God.
Halleluyah

State Police will help secure local areas in Nigeria together with vigilantes formed with state apparatus. This will reduce cases of insecurity.

Ijaw are not more than 10m in Nigeria if they are up to it.

Just like Fulani who are pastoralists and move around a lot with their flocks, Ijaws are fishermen who are mobile and it does not make them owners of their many fishing settlements. Ijaws do not own land in Ondo state but are acknowledged as residents.
If you want to know, the Ilaje tribe of Yoruba and Itsekiri have shared boundary and no contiguous Ijaw settlement from Ondo state to Delta. This shows your migration pattern and not land ownership and you can't claim sea or ocean without land. Some of the areas ijaw settled in Delta are still being contested with Itsekiri. Just like several ethnic group would not want the Fulani to be classified as indigenous to their areas of pastor presence, Ijaws cannot claim to own the entire waterfront just because of presence of oil and gas resources. The only location that is Ijaw state in Nigeria is Bayelsa and its the least populous state in Nigeria.


If you contest my position on the Ijaw population, compute the population of states in which there are ijaw people, compute the % of ijaw to the population and add up.

All the noise is just a fluke which was why Wike said Ijaw are minority of minority.

Possibly majority of responses in this threat are from under 30yrs old people.

You need to know that states are not necessarily ethnic boundaries. There are ethnic groups that cut across international boundaries(e.g. Yoruba in Nigeria, Benin, Togo, etc) not just through language spread( like Hausa language not ethnic group is used across many ethnic grouos as a language of communication)

Don't think Yoruba, Igbo, Edo , Tiv are limited to states where they are majorities, they are also elsewhere where they may be minorities.
Now some things are important in knowing who a people are; their kingship or leadership, the people acceptance of their identity, after these you can then add language because people can speak different language from their ethnicity for instance, i speak English but am not an English person.
The Akoko Edo and parts of Etsako are distinct Yoruba tribes just like Ijebu, Ekiti, Awori, Oworoh, Ogori , okun etc. but like I said, who do they really say they are themselves and their kingship.
The Itsekiri has said they are a Yoruba tribe and they have Benin or Bini connections as well. The ruling house in Benin is from Ife so these people are one.
If the Asagba says Asaba is an Igala place then it is because just like a Yauri man( Dukawa, Kamberi, Shangawa) speaks Hausa, he is not Hausa by ethnic group.

If you know all these things, it will help you to know that people are defined by their kingship and by what they say they are.

melzabull:
Please Igbo is Igbo. Igbo land is Igbo land. Igbo cannot be be interchanged or replaced with 'ibo' or whatever nonsense you wrote there.

We are Igbo people, our tribe is Igbo and we speak Igbo language.

Thank you

You can say you want to be igbo which is a new word. Even in past literature it has always been Ibo like used by Chinua Achebe.
Is there any reason these cannot be used interchangeably?

galantjoe:
Am happy to hear this

Larger Igbo Society will go a long way championing common cause of Ndigbo, I think what Southeast people are glamoring for is unity of purpose, sharing common ethnicity and brotherhood. Like Yoruba brothers in kogi and edo do.

Igbo has been balkanized since 1966 into Ikwere in Rivers , Anioma in Delta, Igbanke in Edo, Obi in Benue State and iikem in kogi State. Zik once said broken bottles have no metakwalism

Ned Nwoko efforts won't be in vaịn. History will always be kind to him

I like that various ethnic groups are bonding across Nigeria. Am an advocate of having fewer states where kinsmen form states and Nigeria having say 16 states max.
However in your description of Igboland/Iboland, there is no such thing as Igbo in Kogi, Benue and Edo states. Except the people of Benin or Edo are willing to part way with Igbanke, its not a land Igbo people can lay claim to.

As for the Ikwere, its up to them so also is Anioma. I do feel if these people accept who they are they should be brought into the Igbo nation to form the Alaigbo state/ Region.

It shows you no dey hear anything. Hope you've hard of Bismark Rewane sha.

So its looking like an avenue to allocate govt budget to disgruntled elements backed by powerful forces. I think a 50% resoudce control or revenue control is essential for this country to advance.
Where will the compensations for these come from, the south that generate more than 60% of revenues to feed these elements.
Peace is good but everything isn't always on a straight line

Compared with Southsouth and Southwest, the Southeast is favored as it received federal allocations as 5states to provide infrastructure for an area just a little bit larger that Oyo State in the Southwest. Indigenes of Southeast get government contracts, benefit from several government programs, have states sponsored developments which funds come from federal allocations.
You cannot say Southeast is developing without government money haa that's a big lie o.

Several citizens of Southeast are benefiting from trading across Nigeria and dominating some sectors and operating several shops below tax thresholds. I want to believe that the noise of having a Biafra will be a pain should it come to reality because of several constraints e.g. land

I think the Southeast would have even become one large cornubation if not for that fact that millions live away from homeland. Just imagine if 60% has to return home.

So that saying that everything is thriving through private efforts is not true

The way the lady was manhandled exposing her bossom was unacceptable. There were female security officers at the airport that could have managed her situation.
Look, witnesses matter, it matters a lot in a criminal case or even assault cases. If these can be tendered, it will help her.

Her behavior was not good but I think the way they are going about it is even more depressing.

I hope this case can be closed as soon as possible.

Ijaw does not have land to claim riverine areas in ondo and Edo states. Its like saying migrating Fulani cattle rearers are indigenous to every state they are in Nigeria. Ijaws are migrant fishermen in Ondo state but not indigenous except for those who willingly Yorubanized. No ijaw state of this nature will ever happen in Nigeria

I think this has been going on since, not just now. There are necessary structural reforms in several northern states to give minority institutions visibility and voice; kaduna, Gombe,Bauchi, Borno, Kebbi , Kwara, Niger etc. The overlord of the emirati system that completely overshadow traditional institutions of the people should end.
How can a Chieftaincy title be Waziri of a whole state, is the whole state under a single traditional king or emir? When did all the various Kingdoms agree to make him the Waziri, this restructuring is a welcomed development and should be replicated.
Until we restructure either generally or surgically, the military strangleingholds on Nigeria is a legacy of destabilization. Many states were created to placade friends and families and some are struggling to generate enough IGR to provide infrastructure for their people which make fighting and corruption rampant because we all go to Abuja to get our cut and areas where resources and incomes are coming from are largely suffering. Many states were created to oppress those minorities such that they can never lead and our system unfortunately practice a simple majority system of voting which means that majority groups will be in power for life, that has to change.
I think the governor is doing the right thing, Adamawa has other groups(may be over 100 ethnic groups)whose rulers has been subjugated by emirati system. You could hardly hear of any Oba in kwara making it look like the whole state is an emirate, that too has to change, the emirate is just Ilorin and there are hundreds of other towns whose rulers must have visibilities as well.
Its a matter of time, many of the current structures will go where impositions are rife, everyone deserves a voice. Let Atiku becomes the Waziri of Jada or Yola or wherever it is that he's from because the waziri title may not exist in all those chiefdoms and they may not recognize that title.

Dalohad:
Stop deceiving yourself.

Since 1970, the development in the East was never powered by government support.

Na dem set build their land themselves.

There is a reason why Imo is 38% urbanised but Ogun, and Ekiti are less than 10% urbanised.

Without government support, we monarchical Yorubas would have mud houses littered everywhere all over our capitals, like we have in Ibadan.

Who see truth make him talk, truth is like agbo jedi, e bitter but e no dey kill..

I believe many of you on social media are young.
The % of urban centres in Singapore and US cannot be the same because of landmass. So is Southeast and Ogun state. How many states in the east can you find in ogun state may be two or three and the east is more populated per square km.
No ethnic group can boast that they didn't benefit from govt haha. Many large buildings you see in kano, ibadan , porthacourt etc are owned by corporates, corporates are owned by people. Apart from FCT where many of their building are govt offices business owner own them and people own those businesses, i hope you get it.